3.1 Selection of Best Bet Horses and Ever Changing Cycle of Results
3.2 Handicap Races Gives the Longest Overlays
3.3 Running Pattern of Winning Horses
3.4 Winning Horses That May Repeat
3.5 Running Pattern of Last out in the Money or Place horses
3.6 Last Race Poor next to Last Race Good Horses
3.7 Hot Form Horses from Amongst its Last Three Races
3.8 Running Pattern of Horses that Finished Fourth or Worse
3.9 Conditioning Process
3.10 Tightening Efforts prior to Turning in a Winning Performance
3.11 Work Out Horses
Selection of Best Bet Horses and Ever Changing Cycle of Results
Most of those who bet on horses are always on the look out for a Selection Method that which is simple, shows a fairly high percentage of winning, and also comes up with solid long shots, at reasonable frequency.
They are eager to find such selection methods that envisage, Maximum Investment Plays, on horses that qualify on all counts that would show a high percentage of winning and go to the post at a good price.
And where there is no selection of such horses that qualifies on all counts the players would often desire to find, Moderate Investment, Plays which would provide slightly lower but still handsome percentage of winning on horses that would have the ability to qualify on all counts, with slight modifications coupled with additional values that would offset such flexibility.
Where neither Maximum Investment Plays nor Moderate Investment Plays could be found, sometimes they would like to find, Minimum Investment Plays, just to lay a small bet to try their luck or play for fun.
The methods, that produce selections for such objective plays, calls for Power Plays based on the previous best performances of the horses and the pattern of running established by them in their recent races that reveals their current good condition.
In such figuring, not only the last but also the last two or three races of all horses in the field are considered, besides their previous best. And if one goes beyond that to make a choice the percentage of winning horses may be less, but the percentage of returns will be larger.
It is so, because, the horse that is wonderful in condition, establishes a much better line of its class and weight capabilities at a given distance, when checked back a few races to its best performance rather than just comparing its set up today with that of its last race.
Also it enables, one to know in confirmation of their gradual improvement in the late stages of a race by graphically establishing, that the horse is running closer and closer to the pace and staying with it longer while gaining in the stretch run in an effort to win the race.
If one follows the procedure of attending to condition factor first and thereafter attend to all other factors, such as Distance, Class, Weight, Pace and then have a look at the Owner, Trainer and Jockey connections to confirm the Stable Intentions to Win, he may find, a reasonable Power Play selection based on the previous best performances of the horses in most of the races.
First, such a horse that qualifies may be one of those horses that won its last race within a reasonable period of time and indicated that it is ready to repeat again in its next.
Second, such a horse that qualifies may be one of those improving horses that won a race or finished close to the winner previously but lost condition and has been rested sufficiently.
And on return indicated by finishing well either in its last race or in it’s next to last race or in its third race back or in its recent workouts within a reasonable time period that it is an improving kind and is ready for the best in its next.
Third, such a horse that qualifies may be one of those declining horses that won or finished close to the winner previously but lost condition considerably.
And by running and racing at regular intervals recently has been getting dropped sufficiently in class or weight or both and thus finds its own class level in which it can succeed in its next, or
Fourth, such a horse that qualifies may be a horse that has been running and racing recently and has been dropped to a class in which it has never been beaten in the past.
In the so called, power play best bet system of handicapping, the idea of power play is that of overwhelming strength in one department can overcome the weaknesses in others.
In other words, if a horse has one exceptionally strong point in its favor, it may more than compensate for lack of handicapping values elsewhere.
It is so, because, it is like sending a strong thrust of its main weapon in which all the available power of that overwhelming strength is sent through at one point and at the appropriate time.
For instance, one need not worry about a horses lack of consistency as long as it finished in the money as third fourth or better within certain number of lengths in its last race, was gaining in the stretch run and at the finish and has been given several races and work out in the past three to four weeks before it was sent for the kill.
However, it is always essential to take into consideration the principles of ever changing cycle of results that often occurs during any racing season, which causes the reversal of form of fit and ready horses, before finalizing any Power Play Best Bet Selections.
It is so, because, first, if the public play ever gets wiser to winning ways the souring public play begins to cut the price on the selected horse. Second, if the public play beats down the price on the selected horse, the average price goes down, even if the percentage of winners remained the same.
Third, when the average price goes down below the levels of expectation, the price becomes unattractive and then the horsemen who send their horses to the post to do their best tend to cool off instead of trying their hardest to win.
Thus, they send their horses out with clear instructions to their riders that they must pull back their horses out of the money in the stretch run if they saw an easy run to win is impossible and that there is no need to punish the horse just to finish in the money.
This deliberate attempt on the part of the connections to save the horse for a lucrative price later on makes the last outing running of a ready horse look stale. However if such horses win at lower prices than their expectations then it can only be attributed to the fact that the horsemen must have already invested at better odds even before the public got wiser or their focus and goal must be something else.
The professionals knows that this act of pulling back the horse out of the money would show in the past performance record of a horse a poor bad show and virtually move away the form of ready horses from the public’s knowledge and thus put the public off the horse next time out.
In other words, whenever the public play gets wiser to winning ways, the ever changing cycle of results would automatically work in three ways and cause the reversal of form of fit and ready horses and move the form away from the memory of the racing public.
And this happens at almost all the racing centers and in almost all kinds of races, despite strict supervision and severe punishments.
For instance, it is common for lot of fit and ready horses to win as favorites during the first two or three weeks of every race meeting of a new racing season. That happens because the public is at sea in its picking of winners.
In other words, the public has learnt to expect changes in the result sequence as meetings change from one race meeting to another. It expects fantastic upsets and so instead of beating the favorites down to underlay prices the publics play stabs for long shots.
Under such conditions, the professional horsemen simply step out and grab the profits with these fit and ready horses. And as long as the public backs out from betting the logical choices, these ready horses will win even if they are favorites and their odds goes up and repeat a second easy winning at overlay prices.
After the early two or three weeks of the new racing season or after most of the horses have run in a race or two, the publics play starts to follow the recent form horses, the good last out horses in the past performances.
At the same time these horses have picked up one or two weight penalties for their early winnings and thus could not keep on winning even if they wanted to. Besides, these horses have staled off from their early efforts at the meeting.
Therefore, the recent in the money horses that have not won at the meeting and thus have no weight penalties are suddenly deluged next by the public play, as the public play is finally convinced, that the logical choices win.
But the ever-changing cycle works in three ways to reverse everything when the price becomes unattractive. And they simply run bad races at short prices and wait for longer or better prices because it is after all a long meeting and that bad race serves to throw the public off for sometime.
The winners, during this period of the second form cycle, most often come from the horses which were out of money during the first cycle of two or three weeks.
They are real wake up horses that were raced into condition during the early weeks of the meeting. Also they are the horses that were racing the betting prices into appropriate figures during the first two or three weeks.
After about two weeks of this confusion or after the form of most horses are fully established, the publics play sours on form horses. They begin to look for trick plays, hunch plays and long shot plays because most system plays are played only after form is established.
That brings on another switch of the cycle to get the results away from the public play again if the odds are not attractive and the horsemen react to the changed circumstances.
The public play, during the last two weeks of the long meeting, is still looking for long shots or sure thing favorites, but neither the odds on favorites nor the long shot wake ups win.
It is the turn of the early form horses, that have been freshened up from their staleness and have lost two or three kilos or more of their penalty weights, as other horses have won after their victories that come back to win again at medium odds.
The fantastic long shot winners of the second cycle may repeat in a few instances at medium odds. Also the second, third, fourth choices may win, when played down, by smart money.
These are just a few of the thousands of examples of the working of the racing law of ever changing cycle of results. Be sure to keep them in mind at all times especially when in a winning streak.
These trends are visible when on the spot odds offered by the books on a selected horse with all known merits are either not attractive or simply not to the expectations of the horsemen and the horsemen tend to avoid trying their best to win the race and wait for better odds elsewhere.
Then when the horsemen of the next best horse or the next to next best horse whose horses have been well conditioned, if the given spot odds on such horses are attractive may try to win the race, in which case the odds offered by the books may come down on such horses while the odds offered by the books on the selected best bet horse or the favorite may go up..
If the horsemen of such horses too find the given odds unattractive, the odds given on the other horses running and racing regularly which have won in the past and is well placed in weights may be targeted and their odds may go down sufficiently if the horsemen tend to try such horses if the given odds are attractive even in the last minute.
However unless these horses are in good condition and is ridden by good jockeys and the stable intentions are positive such horses cannot win the race with such inspired investments even if the best bet selection horse fails to deliver.
Therefore the public play must always be alert and look to outsmart these horsemen who use these methods to outsmart the public play and also look to outsmart those bookies whose tricks of the trade attract your money to their kitties and play only the logical selections when the percentage is on your side for knowledge is power when making greater financial investments for better returns.
Handicap Races Gives the Longest Overlays
Handicap races are the most fairest and squarest of all turf races. The official Handicapper assigns the weights for a handicap race to bring all the horses down to the finish line in one grand dead heat, as nearly as he can do so, from the form of the horses and all other angles. All differences in class, sex or ability are taken into consideration while assigning the weights.
In other words, the lowest weighted horse with the poorest form has exactly the same chance of winning the race as the highest weighted name horse in a handicap race, in the opinion of the official handicapper at the time of assigning the weights. He ensures that each horse is given an exactly equal chance while assigning the weights, theoretically.
But the public approaches them, with the same usual mass psychological tendency, of being one race behind the form. They fear upsets in handicap races, but continues to bet the morning line choice, or the consensus choice, or the course favorite, in race after race.
Whenever one sees a series of favorites winning in big handicap races, it looks as if the public is right. But always remember that any horse, a 1 to 20 or 200 to 1 shot, can win only any one of the handicap races.
However it is only fair to admit that big stables have had winning cycles all through the turf history. When such stables are at the peak of their winning cycles, they make all handicap weights look dishonest, no matter how honest they are. They keep on winning in spite of weights. But the cycle passes as every mans hand turn against the stable and the public learns to stay away from the tracks on the days their horses run.
Handicap races give the best and the longest overlays on average, of any type of turf event. The best profit overlays in handicaps come when you can find something wrong with the favorite especially with silly odds on favorite.
The public that normally stays away on the days when the name horses walk over with ridiculously low odds eventually return when correct weights take its place and the odds on favorites are beaten.
It is almost always true, that the form of several horses in each and every handicap race have changed, since the time the ratings are announced and the likely ratings related weights of the horses on a constant scale of weights for a handicap race is known.
Sometimes these changes are obvious but in most cases not as obvious as the public think. Sometimes the stables know these changes. Sometimes these are not known even to the stables but are seen only by the smart professionals who judge them from their recent races and workouts.
Obviously, the shorter the time between the announcement of the weights and the actual running of the race, the more certain a professional player can be that the 20 to 1 shot has just as good a chance as the odds on public favorite or at least the long shot would have just as good a chance as it may have, if all the riders were equal.
A good rider must never put you on a favorite in a handicap race, for himself alone. But a bad rider should put you off a long shot in a handicap race at times.
Then there is the matter of overweight. That is a real winner killer. The long shots in handicap races almost always are the lightest weighted horses on the scale. They do a lot of winning. But they would do a lot more if it were not for overweight.
In all handicap races the handicapper adjusts the rating related weights of all horses weighted as per their ratings on a constant scale of rating related weights by lowering or raising the rating related weights at the handicap stage and at the acceptance stage or both as is specified in the rules of racing while the pre race ratings of the horses and weight differences between the rating related weights of the horses on a constant scale rating related weights remains unchanged until they run in a race.
If the weights are raised to the lowest minimum top weight to meet the criteria of lowest minimum top weight the so assigned weights are equally higher than the rating related weights on all horses on a constant scale of rating related weights in that event since the highest rated horse is allotted the lowest minimum top weight and the weight differences between the horses in that even remains the same since the given pre race ratings remains unchanged until they run in a race.
If the rating related weights of the horses are lowered in the belief that the rating related weights above the specified lowest minimum top weight affects the potential performances of the horses the so assigned weights are equally lower than the rating related weights on all horses on a constant scale of rating related weights corresponding to their ratings in that event though the weight differences between the horses remains the same, such systemic weight allowances in weights in handicap races must be factored in by lowering their pre race ratings in that event.
One of the oldest professional rules is that a horse fitted out of work out alone is not expected to win first out against animals that have had a few races already or horses that have raced in the previous racing season, immediately before the current one, when racing shifts from one venue to another.
If such a workout horse does win first out in a handicap race, the effort knocks it out for a few weeks or for some time thereafter. It seldom wins in its next start but it is almost always at short underlay price.
Horses in Handicap races take turns. They rotate, in coming to form, winning at their peak form, losing as they get weight on and losing more races until they get enough weight off to win again.
But the public, of course, is always one race behind the form in the Handicap races. They are always on the horse that won last week. And it is usually the one horse that cannot win again this week.
It can’t win because it has been put into a classier field, or is picking up a weight penalty for the previous win, or is staling off, or is running at an unsuitable distance, or is packed with intangible overweight that a hot public favorite always carries with it in a big race.
Bad luck always happens to the favorite. That is true because all the other horses and riders are striving first to put away the favorite. Then they will fight it out among themselves for the winning spot. The more certain the favorite looks, the more the bad fortune, it is sure to have.
It is a fact that so powerful is the bad luck factor on favorites often called intangible overweight, which in turn means unseen and un-grasped bad luck factors, that some of the most respected trainers go through all kinds of ‘betting stable maneuvers’ before running their horses in big stakes races.
These trainers run their charges hot and cold in preparatory races so that their horses will not be post favorites in the stakes races. They do not want any of that intangible over weights.
Thus in a handicap race, the favorite not only has an unfavorable betting percentage against it in most cases, but also an intangible overweight that hurts its chances of winning.
But some of the betting professionals beat the handicap races and other feature races without trying to pick the one winner. They simply pick out that one underlay, favored, loser and dutch the balance of the race.
They have been doing so, through several different systems of betting, with several changes in conditions or volume of betting. They pick the one horse they think that cannot win and bet on all others. Obviously, if the one horse they dutched out does happen to win, they lose everything they bet on that race.
But they wait for percentage spots with the one horse vastly lower than it should be. Then they bet with the assurance that they have the percentage in their favor and must win on average over a series of such bets or races.
The easiest way to dutch bet a race is to follow the percentage. You must dutch out one or more horses meaning not play and then play on all other horses.
When you dutch out the underlay odds on favorites you may make some fancy winnings with this dutching idea or method and when you dutch out several horses the percentage must be in your favor.
These are the horses that are coming to form and are improving with every start after finishing out of money. Such horses, if they win in their next, must be crossed out of consideration thereafter.
Running Pattern of Winning Horses
There are five important calls or points in a race. Aces indicate or show the horses that were in lead at all those five important calls or points of the race. The winning margin or the beaten lengths at the winning post shows how easily and convincingly the horse has won or finished close to the winner of the race.
An illustration of the past performance record of the running pattern of winning horses indicate the progress of the horses from the starting point to the winning post of the race that he won. That reveals that the three and four your old young improving horses that won their last race easily or going away established their improving form, by taking the lead right from the starting point to the finishing wire or the winning post and winning the race with Five Aces AAAAA,
or by taking the lead from the point next to the starting point where most horses are settled, that is after traveling about 200 or 400 meters from the starting point to the winning post leading at all those four important calls or points of a race and winning the race with Four Aces AAAA,
or by running close to early pace as second third or fourth or worse, but running within striking distance of roughly eight lengths and taking the lead from the pre stretch call or after the final turn to the home stretch or from the point where the pre stretch run begins in the stretch and winning the race with three Aces AAA,
or by running behind the pace as second third fourth or worse or within striking distance of five or six lengths, then gaining lengths or passing over other horses in the home stretch where the stretch run begins and taking the lead at the stretch call that is about 200 meters to the winning post and winning the race with two aces AA,
or by running behind the pace, gaining lengths or passing over other horses in the home stretch in the stretch run and running close to the leader within three lengths at the stretch call which is about 200 meters to the winning post and closing up the gap and taking the lead at the finishing call or the winning post by winning easily or going away at the winning post of the race with a single ace A and a Double diagonal.
A Diagonal represents the last three races of a horse and it reflects upon the performance pattern of running and racing of these horses, while training them in actual races for a win by a manipulative trainer. And a Double Diagonal confirms that with each race of its last three races the horse ran closer and closer to the pace at the pre stretch call of his third race back stayed with it longer and gained lengths in the stretch run to be second or better at the stretch call or at the final call before the winning post and won the race going away
The first Diagonal at the winning post must show that the horse gained in lengths or ran comparatively better at the finish call of its last race than at the stretch call of it’s next to last race. The Second Diagonal at the stretch call must show that the horse gained in lengths or ran comparatively better at the stretch call of its last race than at the pre stretch call of it’s next to last race. The Second Diagonal without the First Diagonal has no value.
In other words, Winning Horses that ran behind the pace up to the pre stretch call and took the lead from the pre stretch call or the point where the backstretch ends and the stretch run begins after the final turn to the winning post which is about six hundred meters from the winning post and won its last race show Three Aces AAA which indicates that the horses were in lead at the pre stretch call, stretch call and at the winning post.
Winning Horses that ran behind the pace up to the pre stretch call and improved gradually passing over other horses in the front in the stretch run took the lead from the mid stretch that which is about 400 meters from the winning post or at the stretch call which is about 200 meters from the winning post and won its last race show Two Aces AA which indicates that the horses were in lead both at the stretch call and the winning post.
Winning Horses that ran behind the pace up to the pre stretch call improved gradually passing over other horses in the front in the stretch run advanced to be second or third at the stretch call which is about 200 meters to the winning post and won its last race show a Single Ace A and a Double Diagonal which indicates that the horse won its last race at the winning post and also shows that the horse was improving race after race in its last three races.
Obviously, most young and improving three and four year old winning horses, that showed at least two or three Aces besides a Double Diagonal and won their last race easily or going away, gaining in lengths or passing other horses or both in the stretch run and at the finish, precisely indicate that they can move up either in class or in weight or both in a class-weight-deficit system of rating related weights and win again in their next defying the penalty, if they are properly placed.
In other words, a horse that led or ran close to early pace from the starting point or from the point where most horses are settled and won its last race in a most convincing manner with a front running effort reveals that it is in good condition and is ready to strike again even after promotion to a higher class or on incurring heavy penalties in weight or both provided such horses are the kind of young improving horses that gained lengths from the starting point to the winning post.
Similarly a horse that ran close to the early pace as second, third or fourth or within eight to ten lengths of the leader up to the top of the stretch, gained in lengths or passed over other horses in front or both in the stretch run from the pre stretch call to the stretch call or final call at the finishing line or both and won its last race in a most convincing manner, reveals that it is in good condition and is ready to strike again even after promotion to a higher class or on incurring heavy penalties in weights or both provided such horses are the kind of young improving horses.
But the assumption that they are ready to do their best in their next effort may not be valid unless such horses that ran in such a way establishing their improving performances show their ability to maintain their progress and qualify on all other vital factors such as distance, class, weight and pace based on their previous best performances and the stable intentions are positive.
Winning Horses That May Repeat
Some of the simplest and soundest plays are to be had with consecutive repeater horses, that won at the beginning of the new racing season or in the early weeks of the new racing season, that comes back to win in the next two or three weeks for the consecutive win.
These are the cheap horses that are ready to win during the first couple of weeks of the season that comes back to win again in its next after their first triumphs and they always pay moderate prices. But soon after those first two or three weeks, when the publics play wakes up to follow such previous winners, it is the end of such consecutive repeaters.
The point is that after the first few weeks of consecutive repeating, it does not pay for the consecutive repeaters to win or at least the percentage of such consecutive repeaters becomes less and less because these racers don’t want to win anymore and never a consecutive win. They go into an entirely different routine. They repeat but not when anybody is looking. They run one bad race or two after the good winning.
That one or two bad race after the win throws the public completely off because the publics play looks only at the very last race in the past performance charts and in handicap races such horses may get weight drops. But whatever it is, it gets much higher prices for the next out, in most cases.
Thus a few weeks after the beginning of the racing season the consecutive repeaters run into cold streak and at the same time the smarter horses go into a win lose win routine. This may be on purpose or it may be because that the racing just naturally runs that way. But the fact remains that many horses win, then lose, and then win again. These horses offer great long shot winning potentialities. The smart players looking for overlay plays pay special attention to these horses.
The worse the bad race after the win, the better the horses’ chances next out, because of the longer odds. If by chance the public play happen to make a win then lose horse a short price or a percentage underlay for the next out just skip it for plenty of good spots will always come up later.
The tendency to run win lose win routine begins after about two or three weeks of a new season. It is always the second form cycle of long meetings that comes after the first cycle of winning favorites and consecutive repeaters.
The public does not play these horses simply because they do not play horses off bad races. But the professionals make a regular system of the play. When a smart player sees a win lose win horse an underlay he usually skips the race. When he sees one an overlay he plays it for a possible win lose win sequence.
If a horse has a win then lose sequence with both races at the same track or at least at the same circuit where the race is to be run today and if the horse is an overlay they play it. Some times there is only one such horse in a race with a win and then lose sequence in its last two races at the same track. If so and if it is an overlay the play is plain and simple.
The beaten lengths or the finish position however have nothing to do with this system of play. A badly beaten horse is just as a good a play as a horse that runs second beaten only by a nose in its bad race, after winning a race, provided it is a long overlay price next time out.
Naturally a horse running second by a nose or beaten by a nose is not liable to be an overlay. The play usually goes on badly beaten horses. In some events you may find two or three of such win lose horses in the same race.
To separate such horses take the longest priced overlay that has the lowest weight of the three on the scale after allowing for sex and age allowances. Thus a filly or a mare must have an advantage of one and a half of a kilo over the weights of a male to have the lowest weight.
To further separate two or more horses, take the horse with the most weight off its good winning race. And then too you can always use one of the current track angles, which are always excellent, when it comes to separating two horses that are close contenders.
Running Pattern of Last out in the Money or Place horses
The horses that took the lead right from the starting point to the finishing wire but finished in the money as third or better show AAAAB, a single B and Four Aces AAAA where B indicates that the horses finished third or better or within six lengths of the winner at the winning post while Aces indicate that the horses were in lead at all those four other important calls or points preceding the winning post but lost its last race at the winning post and established their improving form.
The horses that took the lead from the point where most horses are settled that is after traveling of about 200 or 400 meters from the starting point, led at the pre stretch and at the stretch call and lost its last race at the winning post but finished in the money as fourth or better show AAAB, a single B and three Aces AAA indicating that the horses were in lead in all the other three other important calls up to stretch call but lost its race at the winning post and established their improving form.
The horses that ran behind the pace second third or fourth or worse up to the pre stretch call and gradually improving took the lead from the pre stretch call or the point where the back stretch ends and the stretch run begins after the final turn to home stretch and lost its last race at the winning post but finished in the money as third or better show AAB, a single B and Two Aces AA indicating that they were in lead at the other two important calls or points preceding the winning post but lost its race at the winning post and established their improving form.
The horses that ran behind the pace up to the pre stretch call and gradually improving thereafter took the lead from the stretch call that is about 200 meters to the winning post but lost its last race at the winning post but finished in the money as fourth or better show AB, a single B and a single Ace A as they were in lead at the stretch call preceding the winning post but lost its race at the winning post and established their improving form.
The horses that ran behind the pace as second third or fourth or worse up to the pre stretch call or up to the turn to the home stretch and improving gradually thereafter gained by lengths passing other horses in the front in the stretch run, and advanced to be second or third at the stretch call and finished in the money as second or third at the winning post but its lost its last race show a double BB.
The horses that ran far behind the pace and advanced to be second third or fourth within five or six lengths of the leader at the top of the stretch or pre stretch call, improving gradually thereafter gained by lengths and passing other horses in the front in the stretch run and at the stretch call and finished in the money as second or third at the winning post but lost its last race show a treble BBB.
The illustration of the running pattern of horses that finished in the money in its last race reveals that these are the horses that have been running and racing at regular intervals and have been given a race or two or three races and sufficient work outs in any combination of five or eight times in the last four to eight weeks.
These are the horses that ran in its last race close to the early pace as second, third or fourth or if finished further back third must have run within seven eight lengths of the leader up to the top of the stretch, gained ground in lengths or by passing over other horses in front or both in any combination in the stretch run to the stretch call and at the finish or both and finished well as second or third or if fourth or worse finished within six and quarter lengths off the winner at the finish and established their improving form. If such horses show graphical improvements like a Double Diagonal improvement they have added values in confirmation of their improvements.
These horses may show one race in the last one month or two or three work outs in the last fifteen days that makes it three in the last one month or two races in the last six weeks or one race and two or three workouts in the last one month that makes three or four in six weeks or two races in the last two or three months or one race and two workouts in the last fifteen days that makes it three or four in the last three months and that is sufficient work outs of two or three times in the last fifteen days and two races that makes it four or five times in last three months.
Such races and work outs may be in any combination but these horses should not have won any one of the last three races and preferably not even placed prior to the last three races or before the race in which in placed in the money.
That shows that they are getting ready to do their best and are being rounded up like top for a winning effort within a reasonable period of time having been given two or three races and sufficient workouts in any combination in the past one or two months and has been placed in its last race showing improvement by running close to early pace, gaining in the stretch run and finishing close to the winner that confirms its potential ability to win a race soon.
These horses need not show consistency but must have previously won a race prior to the last three to five races beating other horses in the same rating related class with similar ratings or finished second or third or within six and quarter lengths off the winner if finished fourth or further back fourth in a higher class or finished in the money in the same rating related class if it is its previous best in confirmation of their ability to beat such class of horses.
All such horses that placed third or better in any one of its last three races and not won anyone of them qualifies to win a class weight rating related handicap race next time out only if it is well placed on all other vital factors such as distance, class, weight and pace based on its previous best performances.
They must qualify on class-weight-deficit ratings and also qualify on distance factor. Besides, such horses must show sufficient number of recent races and workouts within a reasonable period of time in confirmation of such horses being rounded up like top for a winning effort.
All such in form horses that won or finished close gaining in the stretch run at a particular distance automatically qualify for that distance. And if the distance is little longer than that race, the pattern of running established by them in that race which they won or finished close at a shorter distance than today’s distance must indicate that they can win at the new distance. If the horse led or ran close to early speed and lost in the stretch run in the qualifying event at a longer distance than today’s distance the horse must have previously won at today’s distance.
As for weights they must have carried as much as today’s weight or higher on a given rating related class and weight handicap scale in one of its previous races in which it placed fourth or better or in its last race where it placed fourth or better if it is its previous best. But very few horses can carry heavy weights of 59.0 kilos and above in the scale of 47.0 – 62.0 kilos and still win.
In other words, the horses that finished close to the winner in its last race may carry such additional rating related weights in their next effort in a handicap race and may show further improvements and win if they are not heavily penalized and are sent right back within a reasonable period of time for such young improving horses are already in good condition to do so.
In the last out in the money or place horse selection system, play goes on the horse that has been in the money most recently or on the horses that placed third or better in their last race. If two or more horses that had been in the money or place in the same race last time out were running today in a race they were to be taken in the same order of finish as last out. If the contending horses ran in different races or on different dates, then the order of finish was not a consideration, just as long as the horses ran in the money or place as fourth or better last out.
This method in theory catches the horses in their hottest form. However after two wins in a row no horse can be taken as a system play in its next effort even if the horse finished in the money in the last race.
The last out in the money or place horses selection method prospers best after form is established and picks winners till about the end of the racing season. Always consider the horses that made their appearance on the same track over which the race is to be run.
This is a method based on the last out of a horse that has been in the money or place most recently, which means, that it will be the publics play selection method in many races at most tracks.
Sometimes this method fails to pick up winners during the first two or three weeks of new racing season. The weakness is due in part to the fact that the scramble of untried horses makes it a condition that there is no play in such races. Also there is no play by this method if a second or third choice has not started even once for the season.
After about two weeks of the new racing season, when most of the horses have already run once and the season settles down, form horses are to the fore and the method works fine. Some occasional long shot winners of this method pay very well when the public makes a wrong switch.
Sometimes the second choices of this method get into fine winning streaks when the public is hammering the first choices. Then it is very difficult to tell the beginning and the end of the second choice winning steaks.
Last Race Poor next to Last Race Good Horses
Many horsemen follow the routine of running a good race to make sure that a horse is ready and then running a bad race or two to make sure of a fat price, before the ultimate crack down.
This system is based on the last two or three races run by a horse. The last race is called the price race and the next to last race and the third race back is called the conditioning race.
It is a requirement that the last race, the price race, must have been run at the same track where the race is to be run today. That means that there will be no play during the first few weeks of a new season by this method.
No plays until a few horses have made at least one run. After most of the horses have started at least once, or after about four or five weeks for example, the plays are sounder if both the last race and the next to last race and the third race back have been run at the same track.
But in order to get plays during the first few weeks of a new season consider the horses that ran their very last race at the new track though the next to last race and the third race back may have been run, in its previous racing season, at the same track or at a different track which may be a few months before.
The player first looks at the conditioning race and then at the price getting race. Play goes on a racer of three years or older horses that ran first second or third in its conditioning race and was beaten by any number of lengths or ran fourth or fifth or close to money and was beaten by not more than six to eight lengths. The play goes on such horses provided that the latest outing or the price getting races of that horse is a poorer race in numerical position and in beaten lengths.
Thus a horse that ran third by any number of lengths in its next to last race or in the third race back, which may not be at the same circuit, is a play if it ran fourth or worse next time or next to next time out and was beaten at least by a nose further than the previous outing in which it placed third. If the conditioning race saw it run third and beaten by three lengths, it must be fourth or worse and beaten at least a nose more than three lengths to be a play.
Any horse that runs a better race last time out, either in numerical position or in beaten lengths, can never be a play accordingly. If the horse wins its conditioning race in it’s next to last race or the third race back, it must be second or worst next time out, to be a play.
On the other hand if a horse in its conditioning race was sixth beaten by one length, it must be seventh or worse and be beaten at least by a length plus a nose in its price-getting races, to be a system play. Very few horses that run fourth fifth and finish sixth are beaten by as little as little six lengths, and so they do not come up very often, eligible as a play.
Most plays come up from the first, second, third or fourth finishers previous next to last time out or the third race back and they can be beaten by any number of lengths in the races next to last time out or the third race back as long as they are beaten by more number of lengths next time out.
One of the rules of the system is no play on a horse that picks up more than three pounds or one and half kilos above the weight it carried in its next to last race or the third race back, the conditioning race. The weight carried last time out cuts no figure at any time with this system.
If two or more eligible horses are in the same race, which may happen on occasion, they are separated by weight. The horse with the most weight off from the weight it carried in the conditioning race in the play, among all the eligible horses.
And remember consulting one of the current angles from time to time may always separate two close contenders of any method.
No two-year-old races as also No maiden races are played by this method though this method comes closer to picking the horrible maiden scrambles than any other method.
Ignore track condition but pay plenty of attention to jockey weights and apprentice allowances or other allowances waived. If an apprentice allowance is waived, the extra kilos it picks up thereby may put it out of consideration, especially when figuring two or more eligible horses in a race.
The same goes with overweight. A horse may qualify at its scheduled weight but if it picks up one and half kilos or more of overweight it may be thrown out of consideration because it may be running with more weight than in its next to last race. Or the overweight may change the first choice among three eligible horses in the same race to second or third choice, which of course, is played in case the selections ahead of it are scratched.
Obviously if the public’s play happens to beat the stable to the price and if it also happens to be the lightweight amongst the three horses’ stick to the overlay rule and skip the race.
This method is good for picking the winner of the other race of a daily double when the selected horse in one of the races is from the long shot methods.
Hot Form Horses from Amongst its Last Three Races
Any horse that had won its previous two races from amongst its last three races and then runs a second or third in its last race had its turn twice in a row probably and is staling off theoretically. Some horses may complete hat trick of three consecutive wins and then stale off.
In other words any horse that had won any one of its previous two races and placed in the other from amongst its last three races and then runs a second or third in its last race shows improved performance, though they have had their turn once already.
Any horse that finished in the money in its previous two races in any combination except two wins before placing second or third in its last race from amongst its last three races shows that it is ready and is improving with each run.
In other words, horses that finished second or third in its last start, may run again second or third in its next, provided they did not win in their previous two races ahead of the last race in which they placed.
It is so because Horses that already ran second twice in a row or ran second or third in any order thrice in a row from amongst its last three races most often are in stables that crack down every race in which they are entered. They will continue to run that way on the days you may play on these horses.
Whereas Horses that run second or third and then run out of money in its next are the kind of horses that run a bad race or two after a good race which indicates that they run that way as a matter of stable policy. Such horses that placed in its last race from amongst its last three races, if you play it in its next, it may hold back on the day you may select them to play.
Hence play goes on horses, which ran second twice in a row, but did not win both the starts just previous to these two seconds. Also play goes on horses which ran second or third thrice in a row in any order which did not win in its two starts previous to these three races in which it placed.
Horses that won their last race, promoted or heavily penalized are entered again at the same distance in the same class or in the higher class or company of horses or both, that which they normally lose. But they may gain drops in class or weight or both for such losing races.
Dropped down in class or weight or both, they are again entered in their next race at the same distance, which they normally lose and that confirms the deterioration in form. All such horses that lost form are rested for about six to eight weeks and thereafter they return to resume their winning ways in races of actual competition, after a preparatory race or two.
Most such horses that lost form and return from rest of four to six weeks are entered at their own distance and class level against cheaper kind of horses or quality of horses before they are ready to do their best. When such horses begin to improve they finish well in a race although they may lose badly at the wire and thereafter their workout schedule shoots up.
Some horses need more number of races to get dropped sufficiently to the class and weight where their former high class could have its say and unless rounded to form and showed improvement in a race or in two such horses cannot win again.
All such horses that have shown or displayed improving conditions in a race or two are given a tightening race in their next that are mostly at longer distances than their own with slightly superior kind of horses. Such longer distances will help build stamina and strength for it has to gallop farther than what it likes although they lose badly at the wire at such longer distances.
Running Pattern of Horses that Finished Fourth or Worse
Horses that finished fourth or worse in its last race indicate the kind of a class of the field horses that have lost their winning form considerably after winning a good race previously and are being trained and tightened to racing pitch while steadily getting dropped in class or weight or both by running and racing at regular intervals. Such horses come to life only on being dropped sufficiently as they have been running only to get dropped while getting trained.
As such it will be prudent to wait for such horses that have won a good race previously but lost form considerably until they are dropped sufficiently to a class and weight or both where their former high class will have its say instead of betting on them every time they are dropped as such horses need not show consistency.
All such horses must show sufficient number of recent races in the last two or three months and sufficient number of recent work outs of which two to three must be in the last twenty two days or a combination of both within the last four to eight weeks and one of their last three races must have been a tightening race.
If such horses are given a front running tightening race they must have taken the lead right from the start or ran close to early pace and dropped out of contention after going well as far as they are conditioned to go losing several lengths in the stretch run and finished fourth or worse.
And if they were not in lead and ran behind the early pace or was within seven eight lengths of the leader at the pre stretch call and finished as fourth or fifth or sixth beating half the field they may show gains in the stretch run or maintain their running position or finish well without pressure.
That demonstrates that they are getting ready to do as good as their previous best within a reasonable period of time if they are sufficiently dropped in class or weight or both and are well placed on all other vital factors. Also the finish of fourth or worse ensure that these horses have not been pressed throughout the race and that help us to keep off the horses which were hard pressed.
A few other horses that did not show any such improvement in one of their last two or three races must have been dropped today to a lower class in which they have never been beaten. Such horses with their inherent class advantage may wake up to take the lead all the way to the winning post to win the race or come up to take the lead at the appropriate stage in the stretch and win the race.
A horse that ran behind the early pace as fourth, fifth, sixth or worse than that gained in the stretch run and finished well as second or third or fourth or within six and quarter lengths off the winner if finished worse than fourth in its last race demonstrates that it has been prepared sufficiently and is ready to strike again being rounded up like top for a winning effort. These are improving kind of late action horses that need not show consistency but must have previously won a race beating the same class or finished fourth or better in a higher class.
Whereas a class of the field horse is a kind of horse that had won a good race previously but lost form considerably and has been running and racing and working out recently at regular intervals and demonstrated its ability to strike by performing well in a front running tightening effort and finishing fourth or worse in its last two or three races or by running behind the pace within seven lengths at the pre stretch call and finishing fourth or worse beating half the field in its last race or two.
All such horses qualify to win a race only if it has not won any one of its last three to five races and has been dropped in class or weight or both sufficiently and is well placed on all other vital factors based on its previous best performances. A horse that has not shown any such effort in its last race or in its last two or three races qualify if such a horse has been dropped to a lower class in which it has never been beaten in the past. What you look in favor of such a horse is just one favorable plus factor or an angle.
And when it is doubtful an animal that qualified on all counts is dropping in class the horse must have finished second or third or fourth or within six lengths off the winner if finished fourth or worse in the qualifying event.
While it is so, remember, all such horses that demonstrated in their last race or two that they are ready to do as good as their previous best must qualify on all vital factors such as distance, class, weight and pace based on their previous best performances.
They must show sufficient number of recent races and workouts within a reasonable period of time and also show in its last race an improving kind of current form in confirmation of such horses being rounded up like top for a winning effort.
Also they must qualify on class weight rating related weights based on their previous best performances for it indicates their capacity to handle the rating related class of the horses and the corresponding weights to be carried by them.
As the horses are being trained and tightened to racing pitch for specific distances running positions of the horses at specific points of a race indicate the progress of the horses at those stages of the race, the distance of today’s race, must be generally similar to that of the qualifying event.
The qualifying event may be its last race or one of its last three races as some horses may be short of a race or two or if there is evidence of stable manipulations to win at a later date, and that race must have been within a month of today’s races.
The conditioning process finds horses entered in races they cannot win. Besides, many horsemen darken the form of their horses by entering them in races over their heads against superior kind of horses or at wrong distances.
As such it is important not to be misled by their dismal performances in such races. A bad race in the wrong company or at the wrong distance is not a bad race at all. If anything it suggests to the player that things are working out exactly as he and the maneuvering trainer might wish. Such horses may run better next time out and win the race or finish fourth or better if and when properly placed.
Against this background, look at the past performance records of the horses illustrated concisely in the daily racing cards, to determine whether a horse is eligible to play and over a period of time you will master the selection process and spot the winners that may pay well at the Betting conspicuous of favoritism.
Most horses that have shown top form tend to lose their form and their subsequent few races will not be their top efforts. Such horses cannot win again unless dropped sufficiently in class and weight or both and also rounded to form again.
It is so because most horses that won their last race might have been heavily penalized or promoted to higher class in which they cannot normally win. They might have also lost their condition or form when they made their winning effort in their last race.
In other words, when an average horse that has already shown top form in its past few races by winning or running close up, there is every reason to presume that its subsequent few races will not be top efforts. And these are the horses that are trained and tightened to racing pitch by running and racing in actual races while getting dropped in class or weight or both.
Such horses are a cinch when they will be entered at their own distance against horses of their own class because such horses are dropped down to their own class and distance and they win their races easily.
Such horses could have been given a tightening race at their own distance with superior kind of horses. That may be an effective one. But the horse might have come close to winning that race. And its improving form would have been most apparent. The trainer would not like that. He would like to avoid it for getting better odds at the betting ring.
In every race, virtually most of the entrants have negligible chances to win. Of these, all but losers, some are entered at uncomfortable distances. The trainers are darkening their form while doing what they can do to improve it. The stayers are encouraged to develop early speed by chasing the fleet sprinters. And the sprinters develop needed stamina by chugging behind the stayers in the final stage of the route races.
As such the last two or three races besides their recent workouts within a reasonable period of time of about twenty two to thirty days indicate the current condition of the horses. And the previous races which they won and the races in which they placed or finished close to the winner indicate their class and weight capabilities and their suitability to the distance of the race.
Tightening Efforts prior to Turning in a Winning Performance
A display of good early speed or an improving kind of late speed in its last race or two plus a drop in class or weight or both sufficiently prior to turning in a winning performance are the characteristics that will be found in the past performance record of a horse that had won a good race previously but lost form considerably.
All such horses that have been running and racing and working out in actual races recently are given sufficient number of workout at regular intervals within a reasonable period of time prior to turning in a winning performance.
In other words, a tightening effort in its last race or one of its last two or three races is a prerequisite for a horse prior to posting a victory.
And in these races the horse that sets or presses the early pace for about 600 to 800 meters by leading or running close to early pace as second or third normally tires in the stretch run from the early efforts and finishes fourth or worse or is allowed to finish on its own courage without the benefit of pressure.
A horse that led or ran close to the early leader as second or third or within six and quarter lengths of the leader at the top of the stretch may momentarily show gains in the stretch run and finish fourth or worse as if short of condition to go the full distance.
And a horse that ran behind the early pace and was within seven lengths at the turn where stretch begins and finished better within seven lengths of the winner as second, third, fourth or fifth or so may show gains or maintain its running position or drop out in the stretch run. Also a trailing horse that has some late foot may show gains in the stretch run and beat half of the field.
All such efforts in the early stages of a race and from the top of the stretch to the winning post are nothing but workouts within a race. Besides, a drop in class or weight or both will be evident as in the tightening efforts most trainers put their charges against stiffer opposition than the animal will be asked to beat.
A front running tightening effort is easily discernible and accurate for the animals that gain the lead or runs close to early pace usually is all out to do so at least up to 600 meters of a race and is hard pressed as far as it goes.
Whereas horses that show even a noticeable stretch gain cannot be accurately handicapped for a variety of circumstances could occur which would falsely indicate a strong late surge when in reality the animal is running evenly or in some instance may actually be losing ground.
It will be fair to assume that most horses running and racing at regular intervals in actual races, workout sufficiently to get conditioned to racing pitch, while getting dropped in class or weight or both.
Their best efforts to win a race may come later, when sufficiently dropped in class or weight or both where its former high class could have its say and are well placed on all other vital factors such as distance, class, weight and pace based on their previous best performances.
As we are interested in the horses that are coming to hand and the high yield they return, a horse that has won its last race or one of its last three races is not eligible for play in this system and unless the stable intentions are positive such horses can not be supported for sure.
Work Out Horses
Horsemen believe that the best work out horses for play, during the first two weeks of a new racing season that begins after the end of the previous racing season, are those horses that raced during the previous racing season.
These are the horses that are ready and are on a kind of edge compared to the horses that were rested during the running of the previous racing season.
But the public makes the untried rested horses, hot favorites, over the horses that raced all through the previous season. Some of them do win a few races based on their workouts, but with a few exceptions this winning first out off workouts alone, knocks out the horses right off form for sometime thereafter.
Horsemen seldom try to win, with such untried rested horses, trained off workouts alone. Cheap horses, which might be used for winning bets and not important races, are those that try to win first out off workouts alone.
Most horses trained for big stakes, are the horses that lost their early outings, after being prepared off workouts alone. They lost their early outings, but the combination of racing and working out, gradually put them in shape to win the big races that come up later.
Workout followers who wish to pick the winners during the later months, as the racing season advances after the end of the first two weeks of the new racing season, only need to list out the fast workers during the previous three or four weeks and then follow them through their races until they are in shape.
But the most important details of the workouts, to be considered for selection of winners off workouts alone during the first few weeks of the new racing season are where a horse works and when it works. The speed of the work out is a secondary consideration.
The workout horses tend to win in rotation or by turns. During the first two weeks of a new racing season, watch out only for the workouts at the tracks that have racing. The sensational workouts made at a different track or circuit other than the track where the races are to be held is of little consequence.
Thus the first important thing is that ‘where and when’ the workouts of the horses under consideration take place and then the matter of ‘how’ the workout of the horses looks like.
When the venue of racing shifts from one place to another, the horsemen who desperately try to win a race or two at the new center out off work outs alone, ship their horses that ran at the previous season, to the new center where the races are to start, earlier than others and such horses begin their work outs early.
Similarly horses that were rested during the previous racing season, who begin their workouts at the new center of racing earlier than other horses, are the ones that are anxious to win early. But such horses that win first out off workouts alone are those horses that lose their form for sometime thereafter.
Some horsemen wait until the end of the previous racing season and then ship their hoses late to the new center. Such horses tend to begin their workouts later at the new center and their chances of winning a race too comes up in the later stages of the racing season.
For these reasons, it happens that the earliest horses to begin the workouts before the season starts are the horses that are anxious to win at the first two weeks of a new racing season. They do not all win but a surprising number do win and it is surprising that they pay fancy prices despite the fact that they had good recent form at the previous season.
It is so because the public play many times makes the untried rested horses of the previous season hot favorites. It also often happens that some of the early workers fail to train well. Their names are not seen in the later workouts. That can’t be helped.
A repetition of good early works or the repetition of the same early worker working back often is an indication that the horse is being prepared for big things.
As the meeting draws near speed becomes more important in workouts. More horses working everyday, speed and distance have their meaning.
Always the further, a horse works in decent time, and the nearer ready it is. As such six furlong and one mile workouts always have more meaning than the short dashes.
Of course each day, some of the horses gallop miles in trot time but the galloping time of such horses are never listed, as they are too slow to mean anything.
Incidentally, the little things like ran easily or finished drawings away etc. have some meaning, giving indication of how the horse works.
The early works can be noted right until the end of the first two weeks of the new meeting. After that, new arrivals at the track and the new names in the workouts are no longer early.
The subsequent arrivals may take sometime in winning. The early workers will however keep trying all through the meeting for a win. Some will win and then repeat but the repeaters will be short priced and may not be worth a play.
Work out followers must however use the same yardstick for a play of a workout horse as he does for any other play. If the horse is overlay on its real form or actual chance it is a play. If it is an underlay the race is better be avoided.
Spot The Winner With Success