After a great deal of second thought, I have decided to bring out all my earlier postings made on different dates and topics at Horse Talk under one roof. Same contents are presented in a different fashion for easier understanding and implementing. Hence I call this as “Old Wine In New Bottle”. I want always to be transparent and you are all invited to react on the following:
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OLD WINE IN NEW BOTTLE
BANGALORE RACES
At the outset, it has divided every day’s total programme into two parts, viz., (i) Races NOT falling under the purview of Jackpot Pool and (ii) Jackpot Pool races.
PART-1 RACES NOT FALLING UNDER THE PURVIEW OF JACKPOT POOL
(CLASS B Races Not Reviewed. Strike Rates or Odds or Prices offered)
First consider – second favourite – less than 3 to 1
Second consider – third favourite – not exceeding 5 to 1
Third consider – fourth favourite – not exceeding 6-1/2
Lastly consider – If all the above three considerations exceed the limit and also considering the First Favourite does not fall as joint favourites then the first favourite becomes a sitter.
Don’ts – (Do Not Make Wrong Bets – This would lead to savings)
Rule-1 Do not consider any first favourite for win irrespective of the odds offered in respect of races comprising the number of runners is 8 and less. If possible, eat the favourite. This is not applicable to ordinary cup, chief and classic events.
Rule-2 Irrespective of number of runners, do not consider any first or second favourite for win irrespective of the odds offered wherein the bookies offer place money for first and second favourites. The place money odds bookies offering or not, could be seen only after the horses reached the starting gate. So it is advisable wait for the odds to be settled till such time. This is not applicable to ordinary cup, chief and classic events.
Rule-3 Irrespective of number of runners, do not consider any first favourite for win if it falls under joint favourites irrespective of the odds offered in respect of races other than ordinary cup, chief and classic events,
Rule-4 In Plate Events do not consider a horse for win which placed second in its latest outing
Rule-5 Replacement of a jockey on any horse does not warrant support for a winner
DOs –
Rule-6 Most of the winners are with aluminum shoes. Hence, choose races where the number of aluminum shoed horses is less. Lesser the number it is easier for selection. If it is two, three or four in number your must consider them and to keep all of them in jackpot or treble. If the number is two or three, then you can back equal amount on all irrespective of the odds offered.
Rule-7 In ordinary cup and chief events, the winner would fall within the first three favourites irrespective of the Cut Off Mark (odds) offered.
Rule-8 If any “Very Hot Favourite” wins, definitely one could expect a double for the same stable, without concerning the owner or the Cut Off Mark (odds) offered.
Rule-9 Joint Favourites – In Plate Events Only
In Plate Events only, irrespective of the number of runners, when the first and second favourites steadily maintain at or more than 2 to 1, assuming that both are backed, always the punter becomes the gainer, if either of them wins. Punters are lured in such cases. It is always dangerous for punters to indulge in such jodi or joint favourites betting. It gives a clear danger signal not only to show that the race under consideration is a ruthlessly an upset one but also an indication of totally derailing the rules governed by this Theory. The above Theory does not work. It is very prudent to keep quite in such races.
If anybody wants to venture or out of necessity wants to consider that event for one of the legs in Jackpot Pool, it is prudent to consider the next 3 consecutive favourites for individual betting and next 4 consecutive favourites for Jackpot Pool leaving out the joint favourites.
ELIGIBILITY MARK (Eligibility Norms)
Rule –10 (a) Aluminum shoed horses may be considered for win mainly in ordinary cup, chief and classic events without any exception. In the case of other events also the same is to be considered. But in other events some trainers, to name a few, sharat kumar, Prasanna, Warren, Hidayat, Ganapathy, Prithvi, etc., are found their horses winning with steel plates. Whether such horses are to be reckoned or not could be decided by watching the odds (Cut Off Mark) offered on such horses.
SPECIAL NOTE: In this season, just for interest sake, no horses would have won violating the Eligibility Marks (Norms) in any of the races held up till now, whether it is plate, cup, chief or classic event. If at all, it might be one in ten races.
PART-II JACKPOT POOL RACES
For selecting a winner in each of the five legs of Jackpot pool would not be possible, (excepting the chief event) since all these races are facing extraneous considerations for win. All horses passed the eligibility marks (norms) are necessarily to be considered if you so desire. In case of Chief Events/Classic Events the winner could be between second or third favourites. In ordinary cup events, the winner could be one among the first three favourites. In all other plate events, all horses passed the eligibility marks (norms) are having equal chances for winning irrespective of the odds offered.
Definitely in a Jackpot Pool combination, based on recent study, it is to be borne in mind that the total odds of those five winners must necessarily cross 20. (In Hyderabad Races it is certainly more than 30 on any given day). This is on an average basis. In this case the JP payout would be around Rs.10,000/- only. If such total odds fall below 20 JP payout would be less. As the total increases, the JP payout would be more. If anyone wants to let loose the ceiling of 20 it is always a good sign. In that case instead of applying the Cut Off Mark theory, simply apply ELIGIBILITY MARK theory in all the five races falling under JP Legs. The rule recommends that this would help solving JP 99.99 percent.
Considering the limited amount investment, to solve a JP, it is always to be remembered that the day’s chief event falls in any one of JP Pool Legs. In this event, consider keeping the first three favourites, if possible four also. Select a winner, in any one of the other five legs, as a cinch. Then in other three legs, without considering the odds, just stick to the Eligibility Mark (Norms) suggested for selecting horses and includes all those horses without any exception. This would help solving the JP. Most of the days, it is found that the investment is more as compared to JP payout. Hence, it is believed that this could be tried very much on a day when the carried over JP is to be solved.
On all Bangalore Race Days in this season, JP selections as per this Theory (Not My Selection) would be appearing in this site without fail. This could be seen only after knowing the “Likely Opening Odds” from this site on the race day morning. Such odds are required in deciding the cinch only. Otherwise, it could be posted a day even earlier also which will not have a cinch.
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SPECIAL NOTE:
I want always to be transparent and you are all invited to react on the topic.
An in-depth statistical study has been made on Bangalore Races only. It reveals various factors that govern the winners. Why such valid or basic information names of horses, pedigree, handicapping, trainers, owners, horses’ current form and the distance which is considered to be vital by other systems is ignored? The reason is all these are considered and found that each of runners qualifies 100 percent equally on their merits. There are no variations found in such considerations. Hence they are well considered and ignored.
This “Theory” would help initially to reduce the number of contenders in a race by applying the Eligibility Marks (Norms). This may also be called “Elimination Process”. These guidelines are only a “Birds Eye View”. There are some other extraneous factors also warranting support overruling these guidelines for a winner but such winner could never violate the “Elimination Process” or Eligibility Mark (Norms). Such winner should necessarily obtain the Eligibility Mark. Select horses as per Eligibility Mark system. You would get more than one in number in a race (It is suggested to include all such horses, in Jackpot Leg). Out of the horses so selected every one wants to pitch upon a “WINNER” or a SINGLE SELECTION. And for this purpose, another process, namely, Cut Off Mark (“strike rates” or “price” or “odds”) offered comes into play. Only for easy remembrance the nomenclature changed to Cut Off Mark required for college admission. So this system would discuss in detail on Eligibility Mark and Cut Off Mark required for consideration as a winner
These Guidelines are thus classified under (i) Eligibility Mark or and (ii) Cut Off Mark (Strike Rates, or Prices or Odds) which includes the other part – extraneous factors warranting support overruling these guidelines could never violate the eligibility mark but this could be especially applicable in races falling under Jackpot Pool.
Theory: Now, the (i) Eligibility Mark (ii) Cut Off Mark (Strike Rates or Prices or Odds and also the extraneous factors – put together can be called Theory.
This Theory is not thrusted upon any one. Everyone is free to follow or not.
This “Theory” reveals 90 percent success. Whether the success is achieved or not could be decided upon only after following the said Theory for a minimum period of four race days consecutively. While making final assessment, each rule of this theory should be considered separately.
This “Theory” nowhere selects a “Single Horse” at random. This Theory pitches upon a “Single Horse” selection, especially in plate events only, falling outside the purview of JP Pool, by applying Cut Off Mark which could be possible only at the time of racing. At the time of racing means, to be precise, when all the horses have reached the starting gate. In the case of cup events falling outside the purview of JP Pool, this theory do not pitches upon a single horse selection even at racing time. It always suggests winner could be any one from within the first three favourites irrespective of the Cut Off Mark (odds).
Wherever the word “Favourite” is used, such favourite should fulfill the Eligibility Mark.
Don’t play all races. Play selective races. Do not be perturbed by the odds. Do not be perturbed by some sudden rush of backing on some particular horse.
My Stamina:
It is my firm conviction that odds are considered as a barometer, which determine the winner and none others. The odds so offered take into consideration the entire vital information on pedigree, handicapping, trainer, jockey, distance, current form, etc, that are considered by the other systems. Other systems totally ignore the odds offered. Hence, I firmly believe that the odds are the pivotal driving force acting at the helm of affairs of that information that are considered essential for other systems.
I firmly believe my system would be able to solve a jackpot better than other systems, because, this system takes into considerations, other extraneous factors also. Just cover all horses running with aluminum shoes (and also consider some trainers’ horses running with steel plates, in case of plate events) for inclusion in your JP irrespective of the odds offered against those runners. There is every chance of solving JP. But the JP payout would be either more or less against the investment made. This would again arise as a talking point on the subject. This is my considered view. I do not, at any stage, want to contradict, under-estimate or demean the other systems or challenge my system is better than the other systems. This is my humble and considered view.
AN ACID TEST
I wish to make a statement here in low ebb tone, even on the other day when the JP was carried over, all the winners have fulfilled the Eligibility Norms. I wish to change the nomenclature of Eligibility Norms to Eligibility Mark (for easy remembrance) as compared to that of an Eligibility Mark required for a College Admission. Here, this Eligibility Mark is required to fall under the group for consideration as a winner. But, this system while considering the extraneous factors took the average of the total odds on five winners at just crossing the 20, which proved wrong and it went higher up to 40. There this system worked conservatively. If this system is allowed to let loose entirely without any fixation of the total odds of all the five winners, even on that day, the JP would have been passed. In other words, all the five winners passed the Eligibility Mark without exception, but failed while considering the extraneous factors fixation of total odds around 20. If possible, could anyone throw any such light on their system how it worked on that day and where it went wrong? Why I raise this question is not for challenging but for post-races analysis how their system worked.
ELIGIBILITY MARK (Elimination Process or Eligibility Norms)
Aluminum shoed horses may be considered for win mainly in ordinary cup, chief and classic events without any exception. In the case of other events also this is to be considered. But in other events some trainers, to name a few, sharat kumar, prasanna, warren, hidayat, ganapathy, prithvi, etc., are found their horses winning with steel plates. Whether such horses are to be reckoned or not could be decided by watching the odds (Cut Off Mark) offered on such horses.
SPECIAL NOTE: In this season, just for interest sake, no horses would have won violating the Eligibility Marks (Norms) in any of the races held up till now, whether it is plate, cup, chief or classic event. If at all, it might be one in ten races.
CUT OFF MARK (Strike Rates or Odds or Prices offered)
First consider – second favourite – less than 3 to 1
Second consider – third favourite – not exceeding 5 to 1
Third consider – fourth favourite – not exceeding 6-1/2
Lastly consider – If all the above three considerations exceed the limit and also considering the First Favourite does not fall as joint favourites then the first favourite becomes a sitter.
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If any Plate Event falls in any one of the JP Pool races ELIGIBILITY MARK is to be reckoned without any exception. The same were discussed under the heading JP here.
Rule-14 Joint Favourites – In Plate Events Only
In Plate Events only, irrespective of the number of runners, when the first and second favourites steadily maintain at or more than 2 to 1, assuming that both are backed, always the punter becomes the gainer, if either of them wins. Punters are lured in such cases. It is always dangerous for punters to indulge in such jodi or joint favourites betting. It gives a clear danger signal not only to show that the race under consideration is a ruthlessly an upset one but also an indication of totally derailing the rules governed by this Theory. The above Theory does not work. It is very prudent to keep quite in such races.
If anybody wants to venture or out of necessity wants to consider that event for one of the legs in Jackpot Pool, it is prudent to consider the next 3 consecutive favourites for individual betting and next 4 consecutive favourites for Jackpot Pool leaving out the joint favourites.
There may be days of total eclipse, which means nothing but the extraneous consideration of our working of all the odds of around 20 on winners in the JP Pool exceeds enormously. On that day also, to make this system work, include all the horses passing the eligibility mark without applying the cut off mark. This is for your information.
Trust you are all very clear on the above Theory.
WISH YOU ALL THE BEST.