PROCEDURE FOR EVALUATING TIME FORM RATING
(FOR BANGALORE, PUNE AND MUMBAI)
(Further
simplified and explained)
PREPARE AN EXCEL SHEET WITH THE COLUMNS IN THE FOLLOWING ORDER:
S.N., NAME OF HORSE, RACE NO:, CENTRE
DISTANCE(Ds), WEIGHT(W), ACTUAL TIMING (Ta), FACTOR(Tp), FACTOR(Tt),
NORMALIZED TIME (Tn =Ta*Tp*Tt),
TIMING (T FOR TFR 150),
DIFFERENTIAL TIMING (Td = T – Tn),
TIMEFORM RATING = 2.22 + 30
 22222*Td/Ds.
NOTE : Weight W is in KGs, Timings are in Seconds, Distances are
in Metres, Ratings are in lbs.
EXPLAINATION:
1)
Factor Tp corresponds to
adjustment required to take care of the short term Track characterestics
pertaining to the track conditions on the day of racing ie whether good going, firm, soft or heavy
going etc given by the penetrometer
reading of the day. If the going is perfect, a perfect horse with a Time Form
rating of 150, running on a straight
and level track, would cover 1090
metres per minute. If the track conditions are not perfect it will cover less
distance (Say `D` distance less than
1090), Which means the horse will cover only `1090 – D` in one minute..and
therefore will take a longer time to cover 1090 Metres. Accordingly, if the
Ground condition was perfect, the time taken to cover the distance Ds would
have been = Ta*Tp where Tp is given by : Tp = (1090 – D)/1090.
I have further simplified by
working out the values for the factor Tp for only Seven cases ie for seven different ranges of PNR
values. Further, on consideration that the PNR values are usually taken in
the mornings and there is some recovery during daytime, especially if dry
weather prevails prior to the actual race, I have reduced the impact on `D`
value particularly for Heavy going cases.
With all this the factor Tp
values are given below for all three
centres ie Bangalore, Mumbai, Pune.
PNR RANGE GOING BANGALORE MUMBAI/PUNE
`D` Tp `D` `Tp`
< 3 Perfect nil 1.0 nil 1.0
3 to 3.5
Good 4 0.996
2 0.998
3.6 to 4.0 Good to soft 7
0.9935 4 0.996
4.1 to 4.5
Soft 14 0
.987 7 0.9935
4.6 to
5.0 Heavy 25 0.977 14
0.987
5.0 to 5.5 very heavy 38
0.965 22 0.980
> 5.5 Yielding 52 0.952
30 0.972
2)
FACTOR Tt corresponds to the
adjustment required to take care of the long term track characterstics
pertaining to the geometric layout of the track which includes curves, gradients,
undulations etc. On a perfect track with no curves, undulations etc ie a
straight and level track a perfect horse with TFR of 150 carrying 54.5 kgs
will cover 1090 metres in one minute. Hence, considering the geometrics of a
track , its long term track index `Ti` is first determined for various
distances. This value is usually less than 1090. Thus if the track had been perfectly level,
the timing would have been less in the ratio Ti/1090. Accordingly Factor Tt
is worked out as = Ti/1090. Tt values
are worked out below for the three centres:
DISTANCE
BANGALORE MUMBAI PUNE
`Ti` Tt `Ti` `Tt` `Ti` `Tt`


1000 1080 0.991 1060 0.9725
1100 1048 0.962
1200 1055 0.968
1080 0.991 1100
1.009
1400 1066 0.978
1075 0.986 1070
0.982
1600 1077
0.988 1090 1.0
1065 0.977
1800 1082 0.993 1090 1.0 1075 0.986
2000 1077 0.988
1090 1.0 1090
1.0
2400 1072 0.983
1090 1.0 1090
1.0
2800 1066
0.978 1090
1.0 1080 0.991
3000 1048 0.962
1085 0.995 1075
0.986
3200 1082 0.993
1070 0.982
3)
FACTOR Tn which is the normalized time is then
worked out as equal to the actual time `Ta` multiplied by the Factor `Tp` and
the factor `Tt`.
ie Tn = Ta*Tp*Tt
4)
DIFFERENTIAL TIME Td is worked out as the extent by
which the normalized time `Tn` is slower than the perfect time `T` taken by a
perfect horse having a time form rating of 150 when carrying an impost of 54.5
Kgs (120 lbs) to cover the distance Ds when the track conditions are perfect.
Hence Td is worked
out as = Tn – T
5)
Values of perfect time `T` for various distances are
given below:
DISTANCE TIME `T`
1000 54.7
1200 66.4
1400 78.4
1600 90.7
1800 103.2
2000 115.9
2200
128.8
2400
142.0
2800
169.0
3000 182.8
3200
196.7
6)
TIME FORM RATING IS THEN GIVEN BY THE FORMULA:
TFR = 2.22*W + 30 –
22222*Td/Ds
7)
EXPLAINATION FOR THE ABOVE FORMULA:
THE FIRST PART ie
(2.22*W + 30) :
If a perfect horse
carrying 54.5 Kgs (120lbs) weight gives a performance that gets a rating of 150
on the TF Scale, then another horse who carries less weight ..say 50kgs and
gives a similar performance will obviously have a rating = 150 – (54.5
50)*2.22
= 150 – 9.99 = 140.01 say 140, ie 2.22*50 + 30
= 140
Likewise a horse
carrying a higher weight say 57 kgs and giving a similar performance would have
a higher rating = 57*2.22 + 30 = 156.5 points
THE SECOND PART ie
(22222*Td/Ds)
Now if the
performance is worse than that of a perfect horse, it is obvious that the
rating will be less. Asumme that the distance of the race is 1400metres and
the normalized timing is slower then the perfect horse timing by one second. As
each Kg weight differential results in a slowing down of time by 0.14secs (for
1400 metres distance) , accordingly the rating differential for a 1 second time
difference will be 1.0/0.14 kg, and if we
are to convert this from kgs to lbs, we need to multiply by 2.22 ( as 1 kg
=2.22lbs). Hence the difference in rating will be = 1.0*2.22/0.14, multiply the numerater and
the denominator by 10000, and we get the difference in rating as =
1.0*10000*2.22/(0.14*10000) which is = 22222*1.0/1400
Now if the distance
is Ds (instead of 1400) and the time differential as Td(instead of 1.0 sec,
then it is obvious that the extent to which the rating needs to be reduced =
22222*Td/Ds which is the same as the second part.
8)
EXAMPLE:
Determine the time
form rating of Alaindair in the recently run Kingfisher Bangalore Derby;
W = 57kg, distance Ds
= 2000m, Actual time Ta = 127.51 seconds.Penetrometer reading = 5.4, hence Tp value for Bangalore =0.967, Long
term track index Ti for Bangalore for 2000m may be read as 1077m for which the
Factor Tt = 0.988. Accordingly the normalized time Tn = Ta*Tp *Tt =
127.51*0.965*0.988 = 121.57 sec.
Perfect time `T` for
a TFR rating of 150 for 2000m =
115.9secs.
Hence time
didderential Td = 121.57 115.9 seconds = 5.67secs.
Accordingly TF Rating
of Alaindair – as per his derby performance – is worked out as equal to 2.22*57
+30 – 22222*5.67/2000 =156.54 – 63.00 = 93.54 say 93.
9)
DISCUSSIONS:
The time form ratings
determined as per this system, tell us the
minimum potential of the horse on that day and on that particular
distance travelled. His actual potential might be a bit more than that
depending upon the quantum of reserve – unutilized – potential attributed to
the horse ..in turn depending upon the extent to which the horse was pushed
..ie ridden out or eased up etc..or whether it was a fast run race or a slow
run race. Here, we use our intuition for this purpose and it is here that our judgement/expertise
matters. In my view Alaindair set his own pace in a start to finish effort..and
if another horse had set a faster pace with Alaindair lying a handy third or
fourth, he may have cut a slightly
faster timing while catching up with the leaders. With this I put him at 95 on
the TFR scale which on the Indian rating system is about 114(95 *1.2).On the other hand the horses who
finished 2^{nd} and 3^{rd} ie Turf Striker and Charlatan
probably ran to their full potential and can be allotted TF Ratings of 92 and
87 respectively as can be worked out from the formula.Most of the others who
finished way behind may have eased out substantially and it may not be
appropriate to work out their ratings from this race as it will not give a
correct picture.
The more the `fast
run` race (applicable for that class), the greater is the accuracy of the
rating of the horse determined as per this system. Hence for this purpose only
a select few really fast run races should be considered for the purpose of
evaluating TFRs.For the remaining cases the TFRs may be worked out by
comparison studies only..and for that matter the closer the finish the more
accurate the ratings.Horses outside the frame (the first four) should
ordinarily not be selected for obtaining their ratings except to guage an upper
limit for them.
Thus slow run races
should not be used for calculating TFRs.. Now how do we determine if a certain
race is slow or fast …according to that particular class? For this purpose the fractional timings are
quite useful. For example if the fractional timings (of say every 200m or so)
reveal one or more fractions as deviating substantially..more than say 10
percent from the mean value of all the fractions..then it is obvious the race
is a Slow run race.
It goes without
saying that each and every horse has a pet distance for which it is at its
best. Thus every horse will have a different rating for each distance category.
It also goes without
saying that there is no guarantee that a horse will always run to its true potential…it
all depends on its form and fitness…and the caliber of the jockeys that ride
it…not to mention the draw number.. and various other factors..not forgetting
the luck factor.
And last but not the
least …it should be born in mind that the values considered by me for the various parameters ..viz the Tp values and Ti values
are predominantly by intuition, based on
my own judgement and based on the limited inputs available to me with regard to
the track characterestics of the various tracks. By no means they can be
considered as 100 % reliable and authentic. The Science is deep and the
available data is limited. If it is felt …and if I am convinced that I need to
revise some of these values..I`ll gladly do so…I have an open mind.
Good luck