bala_hi_2005@yahoo.com
07/01/2014
From Time To Lengths To Kilos
The normal speed of a horse as a norm is assumed as 6.1/4 lengths per second and a length in turn as equal to 8 parts of a second where a second is a measure of 100 equally divided parts as most horses tend to cover that many of their own lengths in a second though they may run faster or slower than that at the winning post of a race or at any of the other stages of a race. Therefore 6 1/4 lengths of a horse is considered as equivalent to 100 Hundred parts of a second and in turn 1 one length is considered as equivalent to 16 parts of 100 of a second, 3/4 of a length which is more than half of a length is considered as equal to 12 parts of 100 of a second, 1/2 of length is considered as equal to 8 parts of 100 of a second and 1/ 4 of a length is considered as equal to 4 parts of 100 of a second and less than that 2 necks as 3, two heads as 2 and 2 noses as 1 part of a 100 of a second and a dead heat is considered as 0.
It is a general belief that one point, which is equivalent to one half of a kilo of weight in the scale of weights for handicap races, normally slows down a winning horse or a losing horse that finished close to the winner by half of a length or by 8 parts of a second in effect where a second is measure of 100 equivalent divided parts and one second in turn is equal to 6.1/4 lengths. Therefore half of a length is equivalent of half of a kilo and 2 points of half of a kilo each or one kilo of weight in effect slows down a winning horse or losing horse that finished close to the winner by one length and 6 1/4 kilos of weight in turn slows down a winning horse by 6 1/4 lengths which in turn is equal to 100 parts of a second where a second is measure of 100 equivalent divided parts.
Horses tend to make their own pace and travel much faster than their competitions at the winning post of a race and compete with horses that run with higher early speed as also with horses with much less descending speed in the final stages of a race resulting in faster final time at shorter distances and slower final time in longer distances as the distances lengthen. Hence a weight equivalent for a length of a horse is different in different points of a race at various different distances of races when the horses accelerate to their full potential at those points.
In other words, a length of a horse has different equivalents of weights at various points of various different distances of a race. Therefore the measure of weights per length is different at various different points of races run at various different distances. And the conversion table used by a handicapper may generally look something like that of 2 lengths at 1200M race or less = 1/2kilo x 4points=2 kilos, 1 1/2 lengths at 1600M race or less = 1/2 kilo x 3 points=1.5 kilos, and 1 one length at 1800 M race and over = 1/2 kilo x2 points = 1.0 kilo.
Normally 1.0 kilo of weight or 2 points each of half of a kilo of weight on average slows down the winning horse and the losing horse that ran close to the winner by a length at various points of various races run at various distances. And 12+4=16 points of half of a kilo each or 8.0 kilos tends to level a winning horse in the final quarter or final 600 Meters of the races run at the distance of 1200 or less which is equivalent to 12 parts of a second per length at that stage where a second is a measure of 6 1/4 lengths or 100 equally divided parts, 12+2=14 points of half of a kilo each or 7.0 kilos which is equivalent to 14 parts of a second per length tends to level a winning horse in races run at distances of 1600 or less and 12 points of half of a kilo each or 6.0 kilos which is equivalent to 16 parts of a second tends to level a winning horse in races run at distances 1800 meters and beyond and the horses that did not finish fourth or better or within six lengths of a winning horse may be considered as non serious contenders.
And the descending speed of horses that have not gained in the stretch to finish close to the winner within certain number of lengths is assumed as 4 lengths per second and a length in turn as equal to 24 parts of 100 of a second where a second is equal to 6 1/4 lengths. However 2 points of half of a kilo or 1.0 kilo per length may be credited for gains in the winning margin or beaten lengths that generally tend to level a winning horse at all distances.
Hence one must adopt ones own system of analyzing the potential abilities of horses and take advantage of the ratings of the official handicapper which reflects his views on a constant scale of rating related weights while deriving his own assessment and ultimate investment decisions.
In other words, Distance, class, condition, pace and jockey invariably are so decisive in the running of a race that the effects of small differences in weight become less and less exact in the final outcome of most races than that of the rating related handicap weight formulas that claims to attempt constantly to equalize the chances of all horses in a race.
The dictum is higher the rating of a horse on a constant scale of weights the better the horse on ratings and higher the figure on comparative weight ratings the better the horse on weights and that shall help explain the success of comparative weight handicapping systems.
Therefore everyone should have his own technique of assigning a rating to every horse on a constant scale of rating related weights and calculate the chances of every horse on weights in a race with a comparative weight handicapping system even if it is just to know why the odds at the book makers betting ring looks so wrong according to your figures. However it is a continuous exercise that attempts to eliminate the weight differentials as a decisive factor in the outcome of a race as the weights for handicap races are allotted as related to the individual ratings of the horses on a constant scale of rating related weights and adjusted by the handicapper as is specified in the rules of racing.
An easy method for spot play based on weight ratings will be to take the current rating of the top weight in the race and find the rating related weight of the highest rating of that rating related class band of that race and treat the same as the rating and rating related top weight of that race. Then take the rating of every horse in the field in their previous best race from their past performance records and add your own additional rating or deduct your own drop in ratings based on your own assessment of their performances in their previous best race and improvement or decline in their subsequent races and other factors as is assessed by you and that gives you your own adjusted ratings of each horse in that race.
Horses are generally classified into number of rating related classes with rating related weights and the weight range of each class is about 12.5 kilos to 15.0 kilos with overlapping of weights of 0.0 Zero kilos to 5.0 kilos in each class and 10.0 kilos between one class to another on promotion and demotion of horses from one class another in all the consecutive rating related classes on a constant scale of rating related weights. And that in effect makes that each class is about 25 to 30 points of half of a kilo each and each point in turn is equal to 8 parts of a second where a second is a measure of 100 equally divided points.
Therefore add twice the amount of weight differentials that represent the margins between the top weight and the weights of all other horses in the field in terms of rating points for the weights are in kilos and the highest figure so arrived indicates the best on top and others down the line in the descending order in that order in a comparative weight handicapping system. Such horses qualify for the best bet on weights in that order if they qualify on all other fundamentals of handicapping. And in the case of a tie the horse with lower ratings is better of the two since the horse with lesser rating related weight gets the benefit of weight advantage of actual weights carried.
However, positive stable intentions besides owner trainer jockey combinations and fluctuating odds at the book makers ring could be a key to confirm that such horses will run on true merits and make an effort to win but the running of the race may cause upsets and surprise every one. Similar calculations can be made with rating related weights in today’s race and the weights in the previous best race and their subsequent performances and the result will be same.
Courtesy: Spot the Winner with Success