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In stark contrast with the lacklustre field assembled for the Qipco 2000 Guineas being run on the same day (Saturday, May 5^th) for the same group of horses (three-year-olds) in England, the Yum Brands Kentucky Derby (Gr.1, 10 fur.) at Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky, boasts a surfeit of talent. Not since such stars as Bold Ruler, Round Table and Gallant Man ran in the 1957 edition – ironically, none of the three actually won the race – has such a strong group of sophomores contested USA's premier classic. It's refreshing to find so many runners bringing the necessary credentials to the job.

The race, being run for the 138^th time, has total prize money this year of $2,219,600, with the winner's share being $1,459,600. The second-, third- and fourth-placed horses will earn $400,000, $200,000 and $100,000 respectively; even the fifth-placed runner picks up $60,000. Starting time is 6:24 p.m. Eastern Time (3:54 a.m. IST on Sunday, May 6^th).

Of the 21 acceptors – of which only 20 can actually enter the starting gate – there are at least half a dozen horses with serious claims to supremacy, along with another four or five with potential to score, runners that are capable of demonstrating improvement that may not have been immediately obvious. Only three or four seem pitched in too deep – although what the track commentator called "an impossible result" came about just three years ago when Mine That Bird blitzed his opponents! So one cannot wholly discount any of the runners.

No horse unraced at 2 in North America has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882, when the race was a 12-furlong affair. The nominal favourite at 4 to 1, Bodemeister (Empire Maker – Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat), who races in the silks of Zayat Stables, aims to defy that trend. The well-made colt appears to be a European-style horse in that he has an excellent pedigree, is showing rapid improvement in the spring of his classic season, and looks as if he will get 12 furlongs, a trip at which his sire won the Belmont Stakes. He will start from post position no. 6.

A $260,000 yearling, Bodemeister put in an awesome front-running display in the 9 fur. Arkansas Derby on dirt, checking in by 9-1/2 lengths. That effort so impressed his rider, veteran Mike Smith, that he managed to extricate himself from his previous engagement to steer Daddy Nose Best and will now be astride Bob Baffert's charge.

What does one make of Union Rags (Dixie Union-Tempo, by Gone West)? He looked stunning as a two-year-old, triumphing on a couple of occasions by daylight margins, and seemed unlucky to just miss catching Hansen in the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November. This season he ran very well in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes, beating fair company while giving weight all round, but seemed to have lost a step when trying to make up the leeway after being behind early in the Florida Derby.

Could it be that he peaked at 2 and has not trained on? Or did Julien Leparoux make a hash of it last time and give him too much to do? He will need to bring his "A" game to the table to have any chance of coping with 19 rivals; at least he has worked well, so 9 to 2 is not an unreasonable indication of his chances. His trainer knows what it takes to win, having sent the ill-fated Barbaro to victory in 2006. And finally, Union Rags is what one would call the "class horse" of the race and starts from Gate # 4.

In an unusual move, rider Javier Castellano – who guided Union Rags at his last three starts at 2 – begged off the colt at 3 and shifted his allegiance to trainer Todd Pletcher. At that time, America's champion schooler had Algorithms engaged but when that unbeaten colt fell by the wayside (a rare case of injury this year to a leading classic candidate), he set about preparing Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector), also unbeaten, whose last victorious effort under Castellano in the Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes was noteworthy for the resolution he showed when Godolphin's Alpha (Bernardini – Munnaya, by Nijinsky) came at him. Gemologist, who commands respect because he has yet to taste defeat, could start at around 6 to 1, with Alpha at more than twice that price.

That brings us to Dullahan (Even The Score – Mining My Own, by Smart Strike), thought to be an 8 to 1 chance. The talented late-running colt has won only twice from 8 starts, both times at Keeneland on the Polytrack surface, most recently in the Blue Grass Stakes where he caught Hansen near the line. His form on synthetic is at least 10 points better than he has shown on dirt. But his half-brother is none other than Mine That Bird, so clearly their dam knows how to breed a Kentucky Derby winner……

Had the Kentucky Derby been at around a mile, nothing would have beaten the fleet-footed Hansen (Tapit-Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat). The 10 to 1 chance has only one way of racing and that is to go to the front and open up daylight. Whether he will be able to outgun Bodemeister into the lead, or whether the pair will fight each other to the death, leading to their mutual downfall, cannot be foretold with any accuracy. A striking, near-white customer, Hansen belongs to connections who have a refreshing light-hearted attitude. Last time out they attempted to race him with his tail painted blue, a move which, not surprisingly, fell foul of the stewards! Should he manage to hold on, there would be no more popular winner. He is drawn 14 so will have to work his way across the field before the first turn.

And that brings us to Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway – Dream Of Summer, by Siberian Summer). Had the California challenger managed to get his nose in front of I'll Have Another (Flower Alley – Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7^th he would have been one of the favourites here, instead of being at 12 to 1. One start earlier, he had beaten Bodemeister with ease. Meanwhile, I'll Have Another, also at 12 to 1, is in fine form, has the upcoming Mario Gutierrez in the saddle, but suffers the disadvantage of being drawn wide in stall 19.  

The team associated with last year's winner, Animal Kingdom, field Went The Day Well (Proud Citizen -  Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow), who has followed a similar path to his stablemate. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy – Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) ships in from Ireland for Aidan O'Brien. The striking chestnut was extremely impressive when annexing the UAE Derby in March – the question is how well will he be able to transfer his form from Tapeta at Meydan to dirt at Churchill Downs? Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy – Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) led all the way when making the Florida Derby his own and has the very successful Calvin Borel – winner of 3 of the last 5 Kentucky Derbies – astride and is drawn three, perfect for a rail-skimming trip. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy – Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) is very experienced, with 10 starts under his belt, and has been training forwardly.

Unless all the fancied runners put in below par efforts, it is hard to see anything else taking the honours. The weather is forecast to be sunny, around 27 degrees Celsius, with a chance of thunderstorms, so there is only an outside chance of the going affecting the outcome. The runners, their connections and the expected odds are given in the table below: