Why My Stable?
All over the world some of the best brains of all generations have been attracted to this game, and their standard approach to beat this game has always been to study the form of each and every horse in each and every race, form opinions about their relative abilities, and then decide the betting action. This elaborate process consumes too much time and involves too much decision-making stress at the end of which most people (4,999 out of 5,000 as per the Betfair statistic) still manage to lose money over the long term.
Why put in the donkey's labour if you are anyway going to lose money at the end of it all?
A point that is worth noting is despite sophisticated technology, including computers, to help manage data and devise newer and finer methods, NOT ONE PUNTER IN THE WORLD has been able to give credible proof that he has a method or a system that has given him consistent profits over the long term.
Could something be radically wrong with the standard approach everyone brings to this game?
My Stable is an experiment devised to investigate this possibility.
How is My Stable different from the standard approach?
It's a contrarian approach that is so extreme it refuses to even look at any horse that is NOT on its own short-list! And the "detailed study of every runner in every race to determine their relative abilities" is considered an unpardonable sin!
We will be focusing on less than 5% of the horses stationed at Bangalore this season, saving more than 95% labour, time, energy—whatever you choose to call it. For this experiment of My Stable, I have short-listed 28 horses which, I think, if judiciously placed by their trainers, should be able to strike sooner than later because they are very close to their winning form and winning mark (rating).
On what basis have you selected these horses?
A good question. If you look at the list, you will see it has a mix of horses young and old, consistent & inconsistent, speedy and come-from-behind and the in-form & out-of-form—and they come from a motley crowd of 17 different trainers!
But they have one thing in common. Sometime in their last 2-3 runs they have given me the impression that they should be getting ready for a big effort in near future. The insights I have gained from Dynamic Handicapping & FINOO research (for more info, visit prakashgosavi.blogspot.in) make me believe so.
Will a My Stable horse be deleted from the list after it runs once?
No. My Stable horses will be tracked every time they choose to run during the entire season unless they are taken off the list.
How does a My Stable horse go off the list then?
A My Stable horse will go off the list ONLY IF
i) it goes up in rating substantially (generally, after a winning effort)
ii) it develops bad mannerisms
iii) there is an unmistakable loss of form
iv) it is injured
How does the My Stable system function?
Every time a My Stable horse is entered in a race, we will take a call if it deserves a bet or we pass the race, by judging the following factors:
i) class level at which it is entered,
ii) suitability of the trip,
iii) the jockey's skill level & current form,
iv) and the trainer intent (this will judged by track trials pattern, equipment, choice of jockey & the movement of the odds).
You mean we will not look at who he has to compete with?
NO, we will NOT look at the rivals at all, nor try to evaluate them.
Our only concern will be to decide if our horse can be expected to put his best foot forward today, and if yes, if the price is agreeable.
It may happen often that everything looks good except the price (too cramped odds), so we pass the race, the horse wins, and because rating now goes up, we will have to take the horse off the list. This case depicts a scenario where we failed to book profit on a My Stable horse—but no regrets. Patience is the name of the game. Remember, races are forever, and fresh horses will get onto the list every week (after noting track trials and watching the weekend races, we will add more horses to the list as the season progresses) and, hopefully, some of them will give us new opportunities.
How is My Stable going to manage its money?
We are going to keep it really simple. We will start with a hypothetical bankroll of Rs 10,000 only, and our first bet will be 5% of bankroll, that is Rs 500.
After a win, we will add 1% of starting bankroll (Rs 100) to the last bet size, and continue adding 1% as long as the winning streak continues. However, the moment we encounter a loss, the next bet will be back to 5% of original capital, that is Rs 500.
It means after every loss, our next bet will be Rs 500, and after every win, our next bet will be the size of the last bet plus Rs 100.