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There are seven My Stable horses running on today’s card.
Race 1: #5 Apollo King
Race 2: #4 Speed Six
Race 4: #2 Scenic Blast & #5 Sun Divine
Race 5: #10 Indian Bolt
Race 7: #2 Super Style & #4 On A Roll
Here is the analysis:
First race: Apollo King (1-5)
This horse was picked up for My Stable because of its run on the opening day of this season. The reason was for the first time Apollo King showed decent early energy, almost vied for command despite racing wide until the turn, and then well past midway in the homestretch, stayed clear of the field except the winner though he came under pressure in the last furlong. So we got him on board and hoped to cash in on that form whenever he raced again at the same class level over a furlong shorter (1200m).
Today he is running over that trip, but the class level is not the same—that was a 4y & over race, and this is not. True, his current fitness may enable him to score here if his younger rivals are not so great—but as My Stable followers we are NOT going to evaluate ANY rivals, remember?
This throws up another interesting question: Since there are only two younger rivals in the 10-horse field, can’t we consider betting Apollo King for place instead of win? The answer is NO. We will have to pass up that possibility also because he is listed at 2/1 in the night odds, so most likely, the odds on his place will be too cramped and therefore not agreeable.
Action: PASS
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Second race: Speed Six (2-4)
Speed Six went from bad to worse in his two outings at Mumbai. In fact, so pathetic was his last performance that one was not surprised when he added to his problems by refusing to go to the starting stalls for the S C Jain Sprinters Championship. So it came as quite a pleasant shock when he ran a brilliant mock race after the opening day’s Bangalore races. To me, that performance looked like he has finally not only got over his problems, but perhaps may be heading for a scintillating career hereafter, and thus secured his place on My Stable.
Today, he is running in a class I handicap race which he should be able to tackle with ease. As regards the price, I feel even half money would be a too generous price for his chances.
Action: Speed Six for WIN
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Fourth race: Scenic Blast (4-2)
Scenic Blast got in My Stable thanks to his two last runs in the last season. In the first, he finished second in a class IV company, and in the next, he caught the eye when he blew his lungs out and set a solid pace in higher class, encouraging us to mark him for a 4y&over race in class IV. After changing shoes from aluminum to steel, this is his second run this season, and with P Mani in saddle it may be used to check fitness by running close to the pace before getting ready for the big try. Actually, with little luck, he can hang around for a place today at lucrative odds, but only one point below the class III level (rating 44) that would be too risky a venture as it might catch the handicapper’s attention and send him back to class III with even a 2-point penalty.
Action: PASS
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Fourth race: Sun Divine (4-5)
Over the years I have observed that youngsters who look beaten midway in the homestretch but then put in an apparent laborious effort to win hear home generally show tremendous improvement in nest start. On a similar show, Sun Divine earned his place on My Stable when he won his maiden race last season. But since I don’t have a statistical back up on this data, I presume the worst case scenario must at least one-in-three such horses should live up to this observation. And that makes me demand 2/1 on Sun Divine which we are unlikely to get if the night odds of 9/10 are genuine.
There is another problem too. Just in case Sun Divine drifts to our agreeable price of 2/1, still we can’t bet him, because as one of the ground rules for My Stable, any ante post favourite that nearly doubles up in price at race time is also a NO-NO horse for us.
Action: PASS
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Fifth race: Indian Bolt (5-10)
The way Indian Bolt moved up late to overtake all but the winner after Maddox sealed the fate of the race, and the fact that there was some smart place betting on the 5-year-old before the race made me think that the connections (who else?) were quite sure about the horse’s fitness, and the only way they can further encash on that form is by racing him in a class III race for 5y&over horses. It may be a bit of a wait, but knowing the history of Inaytullah horses which love to strike at lucrative prices, the wait can be worthwhile. Today’s run may get him a further couple of points off, all the more reason to smile.
Action: PASS
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Seventh race: Superb Style (7-2) & On A Roll (7-4)
The first-named, Superb Style, coming from the yard of last season’s champion trainer got onto My Stable after his last run last season when he clocked a relatively sharp time for six furlongs (stable mate was winner) after a gap of three slower, unremarkable runs. The last victory was more than a year ago at the rating mark of 78 in class II for 5y&over horses when he himself was a 5-year-old. Now as a six year old, he surely needs to tackle a lesser class opposition, that’s 5y&over in class III. It makes sense to me therefore that he has taken the first opportunity to enter such a set at the very first opportunity after getting to class III. Add The jockey, H G Rathod, has landed quite a few gambles for this trainer in the past, so there is a small chance he might mean business today. Equipment change (BLK on) also hints at some change of intention.
How can we know if Super Style is a serious trier today when another My Stable ground rule prohibits us from trying for inside information of any kind? No issues on that score. The trainer has a history of landing gambles on long shots after a whirlwind bout of betting to send down the odds. We will need the odds board to talk to us before we take a final call.
As regards On A Roll, he kept a safe 6-length distance from the leaders in last start in higher class, and looked like inching up closer at 400 before packing off to finish nowhere. As a six year old, he had beaten a 4y&over field in class III last season. Has got to a mark only a kg more than that, with jockey claiming 4 kg. Not a horse to scoff at. Again, smart money should be the indication.
Action: If, for either of the two horses (personally, I am inclined more towards Superb Style) there is suggestive betting in the minutes leading to the race, a bet for WIN will be in order. In the complete absence of any action, however, this would be a PASS.
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Final betting plan:
Speed Six for WIN
Superb Style (or On A Roll) for WIN only if there is smart betting suggesting a coup, otherwise PASS.
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