There are SEVEN horses from My Stable featuring on today’s card.
Race 3: #4 Yawar & #5 Thejaguar
Race 4: #2 Smithsonite
Race 5: #8 Eastern Summit
Race 8: #5 Simply Phenomenal & #12 Own Asset
Race 9: #3 Trillion Win
Here is the analysis:
Third race: #4 Yawar & #5 Thejaguar
Yawar, from Satish Narredu’s stable, got onto our list based on his third-place effort on the last day of the last season. He goes out with the same jockey today, who has sporadically won for this trainer, at the frequency of a rainfall in the desert. Another point that puts us off is that the shoes have been changed to steel now. A history of gate trouble and only one gate practice (GP on May 22) perhaps hint at a waiting game, so Yawar is a PASS for us today.
Thejaguar earned his place on our list thanks to his final run last season when he finished a long way second to a far superior Sunday Cruz. When he made his first appearance this season, with Chouhan astride, and received some support—we were a bit surprised because the horse had in recent times not gone to race without a work (generally, 3 days before the race).
However, the way he improved gradually to give a momentary scare to winner Beautiful (who was perhaps carrying the whole world’s money except Thejaguar’s connections), made clear he in this process got a very good ‘conditioning’ exercise. We have to admit that exercise may come in handy today even without the customary ‘three-days-before-the-race’ track work which is still missing from his schedule.
However, I would like to mention an additional point. Had this been a six-furlong race, I would have blindly bet Thejaguar, but the extra furlong could be a small cause for worry. True, P S Chouhan’s riding form can bail him out in case of any trouble, but I will err on the side of caution and let him run (or win) this time without my money riding on him.
Fourth race: #2 Smithsonite
Smithsonite got into our Stable after he narrowly lost his second career start. He has been tracking very well now, and seems all set to strike.
Generally, the rookie rider’s skill level would have been the least of my worries because I think Smithsonite is the kind of horse that runs his own race; and Anjar Alam is learning well, has won a race this season. However, the frightening experience he has gone through yesterday when his mount (Hill Country) got trapped under the gates must have shaken the young jockey [Aslam Kader once told me: “A jockey is all mind. Never back a jockey who is mentally disturbed for any reason. Once you have the basics (I think he meant physique & training), it is the jockey’s psychology that makes him champion.”]. I just hope A Alam has got over it and can focus on his job.
Action: Smithsonite for WIN
Fifth race: #8 Eastern Summit
Eastern Summit, who jumped onto the My Stable list because of her most recent track trial, is entrusted to an apprentice who is yet to win, and has placed only once from 15 rides last season. Though there is every possibility that he may be a fast-learning lad, the night odds of 5/2 are too low for us under the circumstances. So a PASS is in order.
Eighth race: #5 Simply Phenomenal & #12 Own Asset
The six-year-old Simply Phenomenal got into My Stable thanks to a curious track pattern which we thought may enable him to trick a not-so-distinguished 5y&over field in class III. The trainer is probably taking the route of conditioning him by making him run in the races in which good, in-form, highly regarded three-year-olds (he last raced in a race which was won by Jersey Girl) are taking part. So we give Simply Phenomenal a PASS here.
Own Asset is another horse who was picked up for our list thanks to an excellent piece work (June 7) which gave us hope that he has further gained in condition after his winning start to the season, and may be able to defy the penalty imposed by the Official Handicapper. The night odds of 4/1 indicate that the risk will be worth.
However, as far as the betting strategy is concerned, I have something to say. Any horse, which we pick up solely enamoured by the track work, has an in-built element of additional risk. Because, after all, we go by the ‘reported’ work. So in this case, my recommended betting strategy is to split the betting unit 70-30 in favour of WIN-SHP respectively.
Action: Own Asset for WIN-SHP (70%-30%).
Ninth race: #3 Trillion Win
The six-year-old mare Trillion Win was on our radar for some time before we finally picked her up for My Stable after her last run. She is the ONLY HORSE who has been running EVERY WEEK since the season began, and her progression is interesting.
Sporting steel shoes (trainer Amit Caddy has a clear preference for Aluminum when he means business), she first ran in a 5y&over set in class IV to finish very close to the winner. Next, she was sent with a negative jockey switch (Valdir to Ramu) in a relatively younger set (4y&o) and she still finished only 4L behind the winner. Next week, with change of shoes (from S to A) and Valdir back in saddle, she was thrown at the deep end—in an open class IV company with some decent 3yo’s around, and with a furlong extra to travel—but she still managed to clock only a second slower than winner Red Baron!
Running for the fourth time in as many weeks (and back to 5y&over level), she should attempt to put her best foot forward and try to capitalize on her current form.
Is she the best-placed horse to win here? I wish I could answer that question. But as you know, as My Stable followers we have vowed NOT to even give a ‘macro’ glance to other horses. All I can say is that our ‘micro’ analysis of our runner tells us she is surely worth the night odds of 3/1.
Action: Trillion Win for WIN
Final Betting Plan:
Smithsonite for WIN
Own Asset for WIN-SHP (70%-30%)
Trillion Win for WIN