The postponement of Deccan Derby, Gr.1 this year has resulted in a rare occurrence which sees three Gr.1 monsoon Derbies crammed within a space of eight days, something which has never happened before. Of course, there have been few instances in winter racing when Bangalore Derby -- at times called Arc de Triomphe -- Golconda Derby and Indian Derby have been run in a similar time span. 

The field for the Mysore Derby, Gr.1 is usually in single figures and this year is no exception. (Only thrice in this century has it gone into double digits). What is radically different, though, is  that it is way below the customary high rating that it enjoys. At just 54, it is 18 points below the norm. Cosmic Ray (Burden of Proof - Corsican Gal) is the only filly running, is most likely to garner the maximum support and start as the favourite. That prompts the question posed at the top.

What Makes Cosmic Ray Stand Out ?

For starters, she is highest rated runner and the only one to have won a black-type race. Five of the last nine winners of this race were top-rated while eight of them had a black-type win to their credit. Being a full-sister to Calcutta 2000 Guineas winner Charlatan means that her the pedigree ticks "the class" box. She runs in the colours of URBB Ltd. and it is well known that their runners strive might and main in Classics. Cosmic Ray won the Mysore 1000 Guineas, Gr.3 in a race record time and will be ridden by Suraj Narredu whose three previous wins in the Mysore Derby, Gr.1 give him the best record of all current jockeys. Given the luck of the race, she has all qualifications to make the "The Boys" really run.

What Gives "The Boys" Some Hope ?

The main concern about Cosmic Ray is that while she has lived up to the "the class" aspect of her pedigree, the question about her "aptitude" is yet unanswered. Like the filly, her full-brother Charlatan won a mile Classic. However, in seven starts over 2000 m. or longer, he failed to earn a winning bracket. Cosmic Ray has five siblings including four fully related. They are all winners, have 20 wins between them but not a single one at 2000 m. or over. Their dam Corsican Gal's two wins were over 1100 m. and 1400 m. They all trace to the Balidar mare Bou Bou[IRE] who came to Doaba Stud in the 1980s .The descendants of Bou Bou[IRE] have won a lot of races in India but the family is notable for sprinter-milers like Exclusive Virtue, Wanderlust, Boodles and others. The further tap-root is Wise Flower and one of her descendants, Wide Awake, did win the Mysore Derby, Gr.2 in 1976. But that is a totally different branch of the family.

Cosmic Ray is one of the three runners in the field who have essayed a 2000 m. trip before. That was the only time in her career when the filly failed to come on board and it happened in the Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 where Southern Ruler finished ahead of her and Malwa was at the rear of the field. That is the ray of hope for "The Boys". If the filly falters in tackling the distance, they have a sniff.

Which of "The Boys" Has The Best Chance ?

On ratings, Malwa (Whatsthescript - One Punch) is ranked as the next best. He ran a much better race last time out to finish runner-up to Northern Alliance in the Jayachamaraja Wadiyar Mysore 2000 Guineas, Gr.3 and was seen finishing on well at the end. He is a stable-mate of Cosmic Ray and is owned by the Mahindras. The Mahindra horses, like URBB runners, are always trying. Mr. Marthand Singh Mahindra's Broadacres Stud owns a share in the stallions Western Aristocrat and Whatsthescript. Western Aristocrat has already produced the Calcutta Monsoon Derby, Gr.2 winner Trafalgar -- in whom, too, Mr. Mahindra had a share -- and he would dearly love a Derby Double with his other stallion and a horse sporting his silks.

After winning impressively by six lengths on his debut and finishing third on his next start, the locally trained Square The Circle (Kingda Ka - Circle of Bliss) was taken to Mumbai and did not fare too badly at all. Kingda Ka has sired Classic winners and Circle of Bliss has a multitude of black-type honours, the best of which, perhaps, are placing second in both the Indian Classics reserved for fillies. A line through Lady of Luxury -- whom Cosmic Ray beat very easily in the Raghulal Mysore 1000 Guineas, Gr.3 -- suggests that Square The Circle has a lot to find because he has always finished behind the local filly.

Of the pair fielded by trainer S. Ganapathy, the vote has to go to Southern Ruler (Saamidd - Farha) though he is still a maiden after eight starts. His finishing on board in the Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 entitles him that concession especially as Cosmic Ray finished behind him. A beautifully bred colt, he looks as if he might appreciate a step up in distance. His third dam, All Along, is a winner of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Gr.1. Star Cavalry (Corporate Jungle - Sparta) could well be his pacemaker.

That leaves just two runners, Alexander Burnes (Phoenix Tower - Allied Cause) and Streaming Gold (Multidimensional - Abs Fabs). The former ran a stinker last time out where there was only one horse behind him at the finish. After that showing, it is difficult to support his cause. It is much easier to do so in the case of the latter who is the lowest rated runner. Streaming Gold is by the Champion Sire Multidimensional, his dam won this race in 2008 and he has a victory over 1800 m. on this track. In truth, that victory was far from impressive but he will come on for it. He has been working well in the company of Impavid and Point To Prove and is certain to stay. 

PAST THE POST

As we come to Classics run at distances beyond a mile, the age old question of the relative importance of stamina and class comes into play. It is said class can override stamina but not the other way around but it is a disputed statement. Results of some big races in India in recent years seem to suggest that there is another factor -- form and fitness -- which is as relevant as the other two. There are means, however empirical, to measure class and stamina. Form and fitness is much more difficult to gauge.

This is an interesting discussion and it will be taken up some time in future. As they say, "watch this space."