BLAST FROM THE PAST

Competitive horse racing in India is primarily restricted to flat-racing, but has a distinct history of steeplechase racing too. Steeplechasing had become quite popular in Calcutta in the 1870s. The course’s layout was such that every jump could be seen distinctly from the Grand stand, with the aid of binoculars ofcourse. The Grand Annual Steeplechase of Calcutta was held on 27th January 1872. 8 horses faced the starter at 5 in the evening. Eleven minutes past five, a horse was seen coming leisurely along, with nothing else in sight. His name was Delphos, ridden by Jockey Mr. John. He cantered slowly crossing the last hurdle and won gracefully. The second horse Challenger went galloping past the stand only when Delphos’ jockey was being weighed out, shouting his objections against Mr. John for not having kept within the flags. While the objection was being canvassed, after the lapse of half-an-hour, the third horse, Mr. Lewis’ Fearnought came near the post vociferating his claims to the first place, as being the only man who had gone round the course! The steeplechase racing was like a very complex knot and a complete failure, which never really took off in the country.

THE BIG PICTURE AND TREND ANALYSIS

Fast forward to 2019, it’s that time of the year again, when some of the best thoroughbreds in the country grace the turf in classics to assert their authority on the national scene.The 61st running of The Calcutta 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 has a small field of 5 runners. This has been one of the most sought-after races in the winters, with some of the best horses winning it. Dandified, Quasar, Desert God and Adjudicate to name a few. The last 10 years’ average field rating has been 68 and this year it’s 62. The average rating of last ten winners is 86, higher than anyone in Saturday’s field. Favorites, precisely very short-priced favorites, have won 6 times in last 10 years. Top-rated horses have won it 6 times too during the same period, however there have been none in last 3 years. Another striking observation is that all the last 10 winners had finished in top-2 in their previous start.

This year’s renewal looks like a direct bout between JE McKeown-trained Trafalgar (Western Aristocrat – Bluegrass Phenom) and the southern India challenger Tenno Sho (Phoenix Tower – Namibia), trained by Neil Darashah. Both of them have come across each other twice, and since these two are likely to call the shots, it makes sense to dwell deeper in those two racesprecisely, which are the pre-cursor to Saturday’s Guineas.

ROUND ONE –THE CALCUTTA COLTS TRAIL STAKES (1400m) – 10 SEP 2019

Trafalgar, ridden by A Sandesh started as the favorite against Tenno Sho, who was ridden by P Trevor. Tenno Sho settled comfortably on the haunches of Trafalgar throughout the race and showed an exemplary turn of foot in the straight. Both of them got clear passage in the last 400m, however Tenno Sho coming from behind, audaciously outpaced Trafalgar, winning by 2 ¾ lengths. Now there can be multiple reasons for Trafalgar’s loss but there are certainly some of them which cannot miss one’s eye.The Bangalore-based colt was fractious while being stalled and looked a tad uneasy. And then, Sandesh being Sandesh, was a little too late to step on the gas after the bend. And since what’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, Trevor’s riding was certainly better of the two.

ROUND TWO – THE CALCUTTA MONSOON DERBY, GR.2 (2000m) – 29 SEP 2019

Less than 3 weeks later, the two squared off again in the blue-riband of the season. An increase in distance was undoubtedly to Trafalgar’s advantage. Both of them started as joint-favorites. Tenno Sho had its rider changed as P Trevor picked up an unfortunate injury, and the reins were given to YS Srinath. Derby being a longer trip, Tenno Sho preferred to stay off the pace. In the straight, Trafalgar got a clear passage from the rail side and pierced like an arrow in the last furlong, winning by 3 lengths. Tenno Sho who came from the stand side, unfortunately met serious interference from Izzy who shifted out, breaking the stride of the gelding. YS Srinath whipped Tenno Sho from the left to finish a gallant 2nd. One can say with a certain degree of confidence, that had Tenno Sho not met interferencein the straight, result could have been much closer, perhaps the other way too.

ROUND THREE – THE CALCUTTA 2000 GUINEAS, GR.2 (1600m) – 7 DEC 2019

All said and done, with scores level, both of them will face each other for a third time within 13 weeks. Trafalgar will now have the champion Irish pro David Allan in the saddle and to even it out, P Trevor is back to partner Tenno Sho. The connections of Tenno Sho, which now involves trainer Neil Darashah’s wife as an owner, have paid 4.5 lakh INR as final entry fees. Between 26th November and 3rd December, he has reportedly got trackwork 5 times, showing plenty of promise on each occasion. Some notable behavioral attributes are hard to miss and it comes out that Tenno Sho is a quite temperamental. He has been withdrawn twice for being sore of front fore legs, and has often been fractious while being stalled. Now one can make their own interpretations of such incidents, however such observations should not be missed.

Trafalgar, on the other hand has been given decent rest after winning the Derby. In a mock race on 14th November, he defeated Izzy, who later won The Calcutta 1000 Guineas, Gr.3. The colt surprisingly weighs about 520kgs, which is a little too heavy for an aspiring stayer. Though there are ample examples where horses as heavy as him have won long-distance group races. Both David Allan and P Trevor have chosen this race over The South India 1000 Guineas, Gr.2, which is scheduled just 15 minutes before this one on Saturday. This speaks volumes about the potential that Trafalgar and Tenno Sho have got, in the lead up to the Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1, if that at all is their target.

Among the other three runners, Jaivant (Win Legend –Validate) is the one who can trouble the fancied duo. He won The Indian Champagne Stakes, Gr.3 and The Calcutta Million, Gr.2 before getting decimated by Trafalgar and Tenno Sho in the monsoon. Jaivant also lost his last start on 16th November as a favorite. However, his regular rider Suraj Narredu is back to partner him. His trainer Vijay Singh hasn’t won this race since he won with the all-time great Dandified in 2011. Stablemate Abhya Gama (Multidimensional – Violet Honey) is also owned by the same owners’ as Jaivant’s. Script (Whatsthescript – Shenliyka) finished last in the Calcutta Derby and is likely to just fill up the numbers.

UNDERFOOT AND OVERHEAD CONDITIONS

The winter season track started with good going. Later in the season it usually becomes firmer, with the penetrometer reading being around 2.1cms. In the ongoing Calcutta winter season, 14 favorites have obliged in 35 races (40%). A day temperature of 28°c is expected with hazy sunshine and a 6% precipitation chance.