In the heydays of the Indian Derby, more than forty thousand people congregated at Mahalakshmi to applaud the winner of the Blue Riband of the Indian Turf. The photograph of Sir Bruce winning in 1986, taken from the infield with the stands as the backdrop, shows all the four stands -- the Members, The First, the Second and the Third  -- packed to the rafters and not an inch of grass is visible on the wide lawns in front of them. Since then, the crowds have dwindled at an alarming rate in spite of a healthy addition of the Sponsor's guests. This year, the 79th winner of the race will cross the post in an almost eerie silence. Of course, given the prevailing scenario on the pandemic front, we should be grateful that the event is taking place at all.

In the four regional Derbies already decided, colts  Black Pearl and Lagarde triumphed at Calcutta and Bangalore while the fillies  Born Queen and Lombardy were victorious at Chennai and Hyderabad. 2-2; the score is even and Sunday's race would have decided which sex has the bragging rights. Unfortunately, the two Derby winning fillies have opted out and so has Black Pearl. That leaves the colt Lagarde as the only Derby winner in the field and he is opposed by two formidable fillies in Immortality and Forest Flame.

With the Racing Calendar taking an uncharted route this year due to the shadow of the pandemic, only two events -- The Ruia and the Indian Oaks -- have a direct form bearing on this year's Kingfisher Ultra Indian Derby, Gr.1. Over the last ten years, the average time for the Ruia has been 2.2.65 and that for the Oaks 2.30.75. On that basis, this year's renewals were run a tad slower. There is a readymade answer for that. Though both the races were scheduled much later than usual, the track has received less of a pounding and this year's penetrometer reading on the Oaks day was higher than usual. The Oaks was run after the Ruia but the social norm dictates that the fillies are discussed first.

Coming into the last 400 m. of the Villoo Poonawalla Indian Oaks, Gr.1, the winner hadn't been spotted. However, once Forest Flame got through on the inside and took the lead with Immortality coming with a wet sail on the stand side, it was clear that only one of the two would catch the Judge's eye. As it turned out, both did and it was only the bob of heads which gave the race to Shroff's ward. On another day, the result could well have gone in Forest Flame's way. A couple of points about the race are worthy of being taken a note of. Forest Flame drifted out under pressure and at one time seemed to brush the winner. Her jockey has drawn the ire of the Stewards. Immortality kept going and she appears to be a galloper with a large heart. In her last three races, she has won the Oaks at Hyderabad and Mahalakshmi. Rated just 27 at the start of the year, she was upped to 38 after her maiden win; jumped to 62 following the Golconda Oaks and her current rating of 80 makes her at par with Lagarde. Significantly, the astute R.W.I.T.C., Ltd. Handicapper has Forest Flame at only 74 though she lost by just a short-head. For Immortality, it meant a course and distance victory and she will be the only runner on Sunday with that plaudit.

Of the remaining eleven fillies who participated in the Indian Oaks, only two -- Alluring Silver and Successor -- will be in the action on Sunday. Successor will probably be again assigned the pacemaker's role. Alluring Silver  was ahead of both Forest Flame and Immortality early in the straight but they passed her, one on either side, in a trice. It is hard to see how she can upstage both the fillies who ended a good three  lengths in front.  

This year there are three weeks between the Oaks and the Derby and that should give the fillies sufficient time to recover from their Oaks exertion. (This has happened only once before. That was in 2006 when the Dheeraj Arma Indian Oaks winner Romantic Liaison could finish only fourth in Velvet Rope's Derby).  Both Immortality and Forest Flame strove might and main in The Oaks and whichever of the two is fitter in limb and sinew on the Derby day will carry the flag on behalf of the fillies. 

The Ruia of this year provided as many heart-stopping moments as the Oaks with Lagarde and Nisus fighting every inch of the long Mahalakshmi straight and matching stride for stride. In the end, Lagarde pulled out just a bit more to quell the challenge of Nisus who is not running on Sunday.  Winning the Ruia gave Lagarde his fourth straight win. They are all black-type races and include three Classics, two Gr.1s and one Derby. That is a mighty impressive sequence. In his last two wins, both under Akshay Kumar, he had made the running and won the hard way. In winning the Kingfisher Ultra Bangalore Derby, Gr.1 he has shown that he gets the distance in the right circumstances. Besides, his finishing a length and a half ahead of Forest Flame in that race is highly significant. It is also true that his two Guineas victories were gained with different tactics so he is versatile and not a one trick pony. Like Immortality and Forest Flame he has had a hard race in the Ruia and how well he has recouped is crucial to his chances. Body weight, track work and paddock looks are the only pointers available to everyone other than the immediate connections. They are useful but deceptive. Thus, the form singles out Lagarde from among the colts to take on the fillies Immortality and Forest Flame. Form, however, does not take into account a participant's physical and mental state on the day nor does it factor in the way a race is run. Which is why there are upsets.

Close up just behind the duelling pair of Lagarde and Nisus was a brace of Pesi Shroff-trained colts, North Star and Roaring Tiger. While a lot has been made of Roaring Tiger's late dash, North Star, trained and bred by Shroff himself at his own stud farm, has only received a passing mention. Possibly, because he is still a maiden. All the same, it was a fine run by North Star to finish ahead of two colts -- Roaring Tiger and Ashwa Bravo -- who were on board in the Golconda Derby, Gr.1. He will come for the race but considering his inexperience he may have to fight for minor honours. North Star's dam did not race but her dam is a half-sister to Banimpire who won the Ribblesdale Stakes, Gr.2 at Royal Ascot over 2400 m. Another half-sister has produced this year's Melbourne Cup, Gr.1 winner Twilight Payment.

Roaring Tiger, the only 'got-abroad' in the race, was a winner over 2400 m. on only his second start. He was just a length away from Lombardy and three lengths ahead of Ashwa Bravo in the Golconda Derby, Gr.1 despite his rider having lost the whip. Ashwa Bravo reduced the deficit by half in the Ruia but that is not surprising since the shorter distance of  2000 m. was in his favour. What assumes importance, though, is that Lombardy finished in the ruck in the Oaks and thereby exposed the Golconda Derby form. For Roaring Tiger 2000 m. is a wee bit short. A point to note is that in the Ruia, his jockey, as if to make up for his lapse in Hyderabad, plied the whip mercilessly and was fined by the Stewards. Roaring Tiger could well be a St. Leger horse as opposed to a Derby horse. 

In 1989, Exhilaration won the Garware Paints Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1 and followed it up with the McDowell Indian Derby, Gr.1. That year, there was a gap of seven weeks between the two races whereas it is usually six. Thus, forty eight days separated Exhilaration's two wins mentioned and that is the longest gap that any of the seventy eight winners Indian Derby has had. 

Of all the trainers who will be saddling a runner in the Derby, S. Padmanabhan has the best record having led in three winners of the race. His runner on Sunday is Sporting Memories. Sporting Memories has run over the Derby distance in his last two starts, making the running and finishing second both times. First, he was the runner-up to Born Queen in the South India Derby, Gr.1 and then a head second to Anjeze in the Stayers' Trial Stakes at Bangalore. In the latter race, his trainer pitted him against three older Classic winners and he beat two of them. It was, however, a muddling race, the winner's time of 2.37.81 was deplorable and the riding of the third placed Salazaar has come under official scrutiny. However, his rating shot up to 90, a good ten points above Lagarde and Immortality. He will be running after 50 days and if he wins, he will also be breaking Exhilaration's record. You can never take a Padmanabhan runner lightly though a realistic view is that he is more likely to be on the board than win.

That leaves five other contestants and as Derby runners they deserve at least a small mention. Taimur is running after an even longer gap than Sporting Memories. Ashwa Bravo has finished twice behind Roaring Tiger and his turning tables over a distance more suitable to Shroff's ward is unlikely. Though Ansaldo is by Multidimensional, he is not bred to be 2400 m. horse. Two things can be said about Storm Trigger. His trainer Adhiraj Singh Jodha has trained some good stayers, albeit at a modest level and that he will carry the same colours as Rochester did three years ago.   

Trends

Overall. Total Winners - 78. Favourites - 34 (43.6 %). Won by Fillies - 9. Won by 'Got Abroads' - 8. Previous Start Winners - 53

Last Ten Years. Average Field Rating - 82 (this year 65). Top Rated Winners - 4. Favourites - 1 (War Hammer was a favourite on books but Juliette was the Tote favourite). Won by Fillies - 3. Previous Start Winners - 8. 'Got Abroad' Winners - 1.  Field - 15 (this year 13).

PAST THE POST 

Trevor, Akshay Kumar, Y.S. Srinath and A. Sandesh will continue their partnership with Forest Flame, Lagarde, Roaring Tiger and Taimur  respectively. Suraj Narredu, without a mount after the non-acceptance of Born Queen and Black Pearl, will be astride -- most probably -- Immortality whom he has never ridden before in a race though he worked her thrice this week. There are fifteen previous instances of a jockey winning the Indian Derby  without having ridden his mount earlier. With three previous winning Derby rides -- Be Safe, Star Superior and War Hammer -- Suraj Narredu is the most successful of jockeys riding on Sunday and is in line for a hat-trick. At the moment, Immortality's rider is not confirmed. If, for some reason, Suraj Narredu is not available, the connections of the filly will be in a quandary since all available jockeys have already been booked.  P.S. Chouhan switches to Alluring Silver. He did ride the grey filly to a victory earlier in Pune.

Nineteen 'outstation raiders' have successfully plundered the riches that the Indian Derby has to offer. Ten of them did so in the previous century when 58 Derbies were run. They have held their own this millennium, bagging nine of the twenty renewals. The 'raiders' can be divided in two categories -- those who come early and contest the earlier Indian Classics and others  who come only for the Indian Derby. The second category has been more dominant  of late. One fact stands out as far as "the only for Indian Derby" band is concerned. All, except one, had won a regional Derby. The exception is Super Storm who had placed second in the Kimmane Bangalore Derby, Gr.1.