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tipping part 2

By raghavan | 12-Sep-2019

This site is mainly for horsetalk members to give their tips, with or without additional reasoning, comment.

Of course race related, (some times non related too) trivia, humor etc are also welcomed!

But, of late, I am seeing some tips by some body who claims himself a veteran in race tipping.  His sample tips are:-

1) favorites of race no 2, 6 & 8 may not win.

2) Astro says, favorites of race no 4 & 5 looks to be false favorites.  May not win!

3) Favorite of race no-3 may win, but favorites of race no-7 & no-8 may not win etc.

A good number of such so called astro numero predictions will prove right.  The beauty is, even if they prove wrong, our tipster has only said "may lose".  Very rarely he comes with statements that this or that favorite will lose.

Friends, I feel that it does not require a great knowledge to say staements like favortes will lose in race 3,4 & 5.  In fact, without caring to even look at he race card, runners, jockeys name etc, I can say that all favorites from race 1 to race 8 will lose!  Most of the times,  (around 70%) my prediction will prove correct.  Sometmes 80% to 90% will prove correct.  But, will that make me a good tipster?

Suppose, the probable odds are 60ps, 75ps or 90ps, on a favorite.  I say it is false favorite!  In that case, I am duty bound to give you the name of the horse which I consider a threat, which horse may win.  It does not require genius of Einstein to predict that favorite loses.

And the second thing is using the word "favorite"!  We all prefer to see the horse name; at least race number & horse number.  There may be two horses with almost same odds.  OR there may be three horses with odds 3, 3.25, 3.50.  As per cctv display, X may be favorite now & in next minute Y may be favorite etc. 

The person who considers himself a veteran, master in astro predictions, etc should stop playing to the gallery!  He should specify the name of the horse likely to win.  Anyone can say "This horse will fail".  But, we prefer to see in this site the name of winning horse.  

If, one can not point out the winner, he should remain silent.  Heavens will not fall; there will be no earthquake!  A tipster should do justice to his experience, knowledge.  He should not bombard this site with good for nothing buffoonery.  He says he warns the punters!  Such warnings not necessary.  Either spell out winners (or those which finish in place), or remain silent.  For decades, horse talk members survived without such stupid statements like "favorites will lose".

Favorites will lose as a routine matter in most of the races.  The bookies are not fools to offer 80ps, evens etc on a dead certain winner.  Favorites may score in 33% of races only.  Even if that 33% to click, punters can claim themselves lucky.

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5 Replies

raghavan said ...

On : 16-09-2019 07:33 am

Sanjay basok,

A senior tipster bragged that he can prove that one can win even if he bets in all races, sometimes 2/3 horses per race!  Even a mentally challenged person will not agree to such clownish talks. 

But, he said he could prove that his statements are right.  He has a very good handicapping knowledge and he even came out with a laughable claim of huge profits mid way through BNG session.  

I asked him only to mention the name of winning horses that he bet & the number of failed bets.  His arrogance was in full display in his replies.

He said that in BNG season he earned 44k.  There are people who earned 5 or 10 times that amount and are maintaining a stoic silence.  Their winnings was not enough to cover their earlier losses.  But, this man comes with dirty stupid calculations to say that he is in profit.  

Nowadays, he is so afraid to tip that he has resorted to this silly trick.  That is favorites of 2nd & 3rd race may not win!

Boosa, 

I am of the opinion that those who tip single horse  in all races will bet at least 50% of their tips.  

Betting in all races?  It is impossible.  You will be out on street with a begging bowl if you bet on all races. Some tipsters give 2 or 3 selections per race.  We should be fair & reasonable.  Those tipsters have shortlisted two or three horses and expects us to apply our mind and bet minimum number of races.  It is not right on our part to insist that they bet on all races the horses they tipped.  

Even by betting some 300/500 per race, that too three or four races per day,  many times I end up with loss of 7 to 10 thousand per month.   And. nowadays most of the  punters are betting 2k to 5k per horse!  We should not expect them to bet all the horses they tip.  They are betting hard cash.  Not tamarind seeds.  And, I expect them to bet only in 3 or 4 races per day.

Boosa said ...

On : 14-09-2019 03:52 am

Indeed it was required to remind the tipsters who tip regularly as a routine ,how many of them do really back them at the time of races, I am sure very few .it's like having common sense.

This write up is the best which I have come across after a long long time .

From the time when night odds were stopped , ie nowadays you can't zeroin a horse without the odds in most of the races in almost all the centres ,most races will have two or three good horse ,the tricky part to go all out on one horse you need odds and variations of ring side betting, but I couldn't understand so many of them are blindly giving seasons best and years best horse for win in horse talk . I appreciate their confidence if they bet the same at race time.

Once again thanks for the write up. excellent.

Rajaraman said ...

On : 12-09-2019 12:39 pm

Well said Raghavan sir 

sanjoy basak said ...

On : 12-09-2019 12:21 pm

Respected Raghavan Sir           Superb write up of part-1 & part2. I firmly beleive most of   HT members are not fool and illiterate. Being a MATHEMATICIAN I also mostly failure to find the winner one in 24 years racing life. There is no Astrology- no numerology- no numberology. I respect all senior members in this forum like Godzilla Sir, S c Sharma Sir , Raj- Original Sir, Dharmesh Sir and others.From my experience I can say patients is the main key of success. 

Goldman Cayabyab said ...

On : 12-09-2019 11:12 am

No need use brains.. simply follow 

""Indiarace""

Selections...

As I do.. I never lost... in Raceing...

Regards.....Thank you..