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Attraction Mistaken For Rightness...a Common Mistake Of Punter

By Anilxk | 27-Apr-2020

Dear Friend's,

When we study one day card, normally for ordinary people like me will try to find upsetter's or fluke winner's. Our study normally will go to weight and allowances and will find a no chance mount for investment. During my stinct at Malaysia (from 2000-2006), I noticed that most the races are stipulated among the first 4 but giving good payout's , every time shuffling of order and winner getting decent payout's, those day's are hey days of Martin Wepner/Oliver Chaves/C.Nicols/G.Mosse/D.Beadman/J.Saimee etc.

The handicapping system is almost the same all over the club's.So the best rated runner will carry the maximum wt. At this juncture the trick's of trainer will divert attention of punter's by placing an apprentice on horse.

Everybody think that Apprentice will bring the horse to finishing in first three which rarely happens.If we analysed a season result's the %of win by apprentices altogether may be below 6%, and places scored may be below 5% but most of the time we lost on them. The main reason for the loss is because we consider the wt reduction fully in out speed chart which show's positive side.But in reality due to the instructions or type of handling the usage of allowance can be a part of the declared . The allowances for front running to be considered 1/2 and rear types to be consider at 60%  the chart show's negative advantage for apprentice then, some un sound apprentices to be considered full wt.Now the chart show's the chances for regular jockies are brighter than apprentices and reflect's in result also.

Some exceptional apprentices (who got full support of system ) is another case.Eg C.Rajendra/P.Trevor/Suraj Narredu/C.Harish etc.

More over the apprentice ship man Narendra Lagad enjoys better strike rate with full jockey DasrathSingh, not with any wt allowance boy's.

So while studyig a card please ignore star's. numerology and lucky no...instead of read and re-read card..be updated take a note on day's betting and analyse it in two week's ....And keep in mind that ATTRACTION MISTAKEN FOR RIGHTNESS

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7 Replies

Anil Xk said ...

29-Apr-2020

The next attractive factor is CNB.

What is the importance of it, and how it effects. My observation s about CNB is very simple. It helps a lot to the rider to control the horse, as horse is not permitted to do tongue lashing inside mouth.the riding bits are intact , throgh out the race.

This will also prevent rider to pull the horse as it can't lift head more than a particular limit.It will help horse to breath heavily through nostrils only, which will retain its stamina.

I started curiously observing horses and it's attachments in 1997 onwards only, 4 years after entering race. Trainer MD Abbas, is very good in bringing upsets at that period, Normally a longer odds lover like me show's interest in his wards.

He brought a horse called jolly jovial into race in Bangalore summer and it not placed on board, even though finished very close 5/6 positions in good set.

That horse was accepted at Mysore, and I planned to play just one race , I along with my current girl friend travelled to Mysore, The card shows that jolly jovial removed blinkers, tongue straps, but used CNB, It became second favourite and won very smoothly, during that season in two more promotion class it came on places.

And in Saddle up running flame Indian derby, Supervise used CNB for the first time and finished close order, and later declared derby winner as saddle up disvqualified.

Next posting will be about Visor

Sureshot said ...

29-Apr-2020

Dear Anil,

Very nice observation.

In fact ,this is first post I m reading which have pragmatic/practical approach to led punters to winners.

Very good.

Kindly contribute such observation and not dreams/plans/advices/blabla.

 

 

Anil Xk said ...

28-Apr-2020

The next attracion is shoe change

Everybody go all out if shoe changed to A from S. But analysing the technical parameters, a horse can win with S shoe is always a class above the rest. To find the shoe one must search club's site. Because shoe is of different types, in A . So must check which type of shoe is mounted on horse.

In my analysis the  trainer who done wonder with shoe is Samarsingh and Sharat Kumar.

Several years back a broken horse ( Hymen/ Mazzal) sorry to forget it's name trained by Samarsingh is running in Bangalore.Because of its peculiar running style I decided to follow that horse, it is genuinely a  horse with little shorter rear llegs, always gallops with head high After several try outs Samar Singh one day fixed high heels in front legs , I was amused by that decision, just played each way on it. Ashad asba or Arshad Alam is the jockey which given beautiful payout.Those tricks only Samar Singh can do in Bangalore.

Rehmanullah khan is also a master in S shoe, he made every body frenzy by repairing broken horse strength to strength using shoe technic.

A negative shoe change which caused a lot of punters money is by Darius horse in Rochester's Indian derby, his ward is favourite but used a different shoe which specifically uses in all weather track majority of punters are un aware about it and lost in that match.

So don't get attracted by just seeing A shoe, check whether it is appropriate for the match, is itbuses all legas same type and what is the justification for shoe cjange.

If we keep asking these questions to ourselves, understood that this game is real king of sport's. Next will mention about other fitments

Anil Xk said ...

28-Apr-2020

In my opinion , the current trainers who used to engineer the best on horse with blinker is Anupam Sharma, Inayathulla, Sebastian, Noshercama, SS. Shah etc 

Anil Xk said ...

28-Apr-2020

@ Ks

This is a generation change period in jockeyship. A.Imrankhan, Y.S.Srinath, PS.Chouhan, S.John are at the verge of retirement, C.Alford is retired, his replacement Shailesh left India. So it is natural to get more chances to youngster's 

The subject I want to bring attention is Blinkers.

In 1990's if a horse running blinkers off most of the punters play it irrespective of current form. But in 2000 the tactics are changed after removal of blinker horse is not coming on board in most of the time .

The trainer uses the blinker to correct the running behaviour of horse , overspeeding, declaration, wear out, drifting under pressure etc.

Most of the trainers uses blinkers to correct the intial speed and settling speed variation, after two three outings with blinker, they test horse and analyse it.with out knowing the reasons most of the punters like us loose money by backing it

Ksmrow said ...

28-Apr-2020

@ Anilxk, just wants to add to my earlier post about Hyderabad winter 2019-20 in total 202 races combined winners of apprentice jockeys are 47 that comes to 23%.

Ksmrow said ...

28-Apr-2020

@Anilxk,

what you said about winning % of apprentice jockeys may not be correct,in Bangalore winter 23 races  won by app jockeys out of 171 races that is approximately me race a day, in Mumbai Just concluded season 32 out of 185 races won by a Apprentice that coming to 17%, any way interesting line of thinking keep going. If we summarise a days results one race for apprentice one rank outsider generally ridden by third rate jockey or trained by not so consistent trainer and two odds on ridden by top jockeys.