Dear Ksmrow,

In my opinion, the following factors account for the failure of the favourite 60 % of the times.

- Intent of the connections

- Effect of the draw

- The pace of the race

- How the race will unfold

- The path taken by a horse

- Effect of change of equipment if any

- Luck of the race viz. slow jump out, hanging, interference, etc.

- Condition of the horse including health problems if any

- Incorrect / inadequate application of paddock reading

@Glasgow Prince

The statistics show only 30 to 40% favourites wins that means in every 100 races more than 60 times favourite horse looses why? If most of them are not having good chance to win how  they are made favourites the majority must have credentials to win but end up in loosing,this strengthens my view the best horse doesn't win at least one out of three races (1/3). The favourite and your choice may or may not be best horse, further to improve one’s strike rate one's choices should able to identify best horse in the bunch in the range of Very high percentage.

@ all,

Without  knowing  the  intent, weight( current or  old), paddock  looks, various setbacks , impedimentd  during  race etc. etc.; I've  posted  my  selections BEFORE  the  races  were  run  and  have  achieved  a  strike  rate  of  35% which  has  given  me  a  decent ROI...

Friends,

If one is trying to improve his strike rate, the first thing he needs to do is to skip  those races wherein the factors that induce uncertainly are inherent.

Sun,

Your points 1, 2 and 4 fall in the above category. The other points are primarily about intent.

Ksmrow,

If I have understood your post correctly, the best horse doesn't win at least one out of three races (1/3). That would straightaway mean a strike rate of 33 %. That means initent alone results in failure of 66 %. Adding the effect of the other factors that you have enumerated, the strike rate should come down further. 

Follwoing is my view on various points.

- Under or over preparation : Effect will show up in the paddock parade.

- Error of judgment by jockey : Top or good jockeys rarely make such errors, more by exception, hence negligible effect on the strike rate.

- Wrong tactics or instructions (despite positive intent) : Same as above

- Long lay off, weight gain : Weights of such horses can be seen on the monitors before deciding the bet.

- Slight set back : Gap since the last run can be an indication. However, this factor again falls under intent because essentially what you are saying is we are unaware of the resultant intent.

- Was the horse impeded, did he get a fair start, did he have to race wide, was the distance suitable, how did he like the going and the like : These things can be seen from video replays and past record. Such factors just make up numbers and a punter can safely counter their effect by only betting on such horses that are sufficiently superior to the opposition. 

- Demotee systematically brought down : This falls under intent.

I think it is evident that the biggest factor that comes in the way of improving the strike rate and is also perceived to have the largest effect on the result is 'intent'. If this problem can be cracked there is no reason why the strike rate can't go closer to the 90s or higher.

@Glasgow Prince @sun

To improve strike rate however hard you try each race day you can pick winners only to certain level with your routine Tested method or system because best horse doesn’t win at least 1/3 of races may be because of intent of trainer,owner(big)or jockey this comes to 1 or 2 races each race day and some % loses due to error of judgement by jockey and under& over preparation of horse by trainer-wrong tactics or instructions long lay off  weight gain slight set back you are not aware and of course your system not competent enough to see and quantify adjustments of facts and judgements of empirical values such as Did he get a fair start? Did he have to race wide? Was the pace of the race true or false? Was the horse impeded during the race? How did the horse act in the going?

Was the horse racing over a suitable distance? Demote which systematically brought down to previous winning margin often neglected due to poor and down the field runs in upper class.

For Improvement on has to make changes or fine tune his system based on the performance of results,

Guess the intention of Trainer,big owner and jockey particularly on favourites,if you are good at reading track work one can easily get minimum 2 winner in each race day this is particularly use full in maiden races to identify which are forward pedigree comes next only to track workouts in such races.

Finally time one can get,95% of punters don’t have time to apply all his knowledge

End up like in chess “loose on time”.

This is for sure that is normal horse connections don't want their horses to go beyond class 3 till 6 years old.

Galsgow Prince,

Apart from Intent and Interference the other factors which come in the way of improving strike rate of a punter,are

1.Inconsistency of Runners in lowest class of  4-30  and in races for the aged horses 5 year and above

2.Races for Maidens where there is no or little data to apply Quantitative methods.

3 Full potential not called for in the previous races resulting under assessment of the horses.

4. In classics where the final choice may have to be made by Pedigree Analysis the horse selected may be a Late Bloomer though Pedigree-wise it was best suited to Win the race.

5.Greedy Trainers/Owneres This point is similar to Intent but with a slught difference.This happens with good horses of Yesteryears.The horse is capable of Winning but the connections prefer a Place and a Win in the same class before it reaches the Level of Incompetence.

Thanks.

Sun,

Your example was indeed for Mumbai but I guess it would have got a similar reply. Nothing is clear really. Your point about 2 seconds off is very  much valid. Further as Ksmrow said most of such horses would be odds on.

The question I had posed in the last thread was different. The question was "if a serious race goer, after taking all the important factors including paddock looks into consideration, can realistically achieve a rate of 40 %, what are the factors that contribute to his failure 60 % of the time? Are intent and interference the only factors that account for this 60%?".

That one should keep improving his system is a given. As you know, the key question would be 'what improvement in strike rate has been achieved by the changes made in his system?' 

Yes, I do use the same rediff account.

Glasgow Prince

My example was of Mumbai.Further 2 secs off cannot be a constant factor for all didtances even if such a parameter can be used for short listing.

If you are referring to "What Punters Can do but don't" post my answer is simple

Following some method however silly it may appear to others consistently

The system should be appliied to all centres.

To have faith in the system

To keep on improving the same

Most punters may find it difficult to follow the guidelines because they are swayed by current status of their Profit/Loss on that day.

Long time back we interacted by mail and if you are still using your Rediff account I will send you my latest Ratings File in Excel for Mumbai&Pune centres for your perusal

Thanks.

Sun,

It was a general as well as a specific observation. In the last thread, I had posed a question to all serious race goers which somehow no one chose to answer and the thread died. Astu!

Coming to the other part of your post, I think the point you have raised has been sought to be answered by 'Regarding 1600 meters in Bangalore, and some distances in some centers have tuned up' where I guess 'tuned up' means 'worked further'.

G P,

Very much agree with your views,But then,Some wait to pounce on their so called B.L.

Regards

@ Glasgow Prince,

Just a clarification whether I did not respond to your thread when we met earlier OR a general remark on some of the threads here.If there is any pending post from me kindly let me have the thread reference.

On short listing criterio of 2 secs better than Course Record of Mr Gowda Normally Course Records Timings are too superior and within 2 secs of that we do not come across many horses.For example for 1600 at Mumbai it is 1 min 34 secs and 2 secs plus is 1 min 36 secs From January to 12th March Last Day I could find only Flying Visit Clocking near that value 1 min 36.47 Secs

Thanks.

Sun, you echoed my thoughts with your observation. The same thing had happened in the last thread where we had met.

As far as I can understand, Vinay.gowda has not said anywhere that timing alone can decide the superiority of a runner. What he has described - as briefly as possible - is a filtering method to decide the races and the horses which are to be considered. With the details given, I don't think anybody has been able to clearly understand as to what exactly is to be practiced for a season before actually trying it in the field. If he had simply specified a few past races wherein this strategy was applicable, it would have been much more effective without disclosing too many details.

@ Ravi gownde

Course record holders Iron age placed last why?

@ksmrow,

This is with reference to your post addressed to Mr Vinay Gowda.My observation on such topics in this forum is when you go for serious discussion there is no further discussion.

To your question whether 4 horses cited by you are superior to the other 2 horses the answer is Star Superior is superior to Sir Cecil.What to make of it.

So we reached the end of the topic.The parameter of 2 secs superior to Record Time is to say the least very erroneous because for various distances like 1000,1100,1200 the Record Times being different, 2 secs may be too high for 1000 mtrs and too low for 2400 Mtrs race.

@ vinay.gowda,

All your strategy don't work in real. You are new to racing. Grow up

If a bet is lost, due to the negligence of the Clerk of the course, how many of us knocked on the door of the respective High Courts. On 15 .11.2019, BTC closed the shop after the first race. In this race, 3 horses dropped the riders. I have no information about the injuries suffered by the concerned jockeys

Many jockeys lost life on the track and later at hospitals due to injuries suffered during the running of the race. All our racecourses are heaven for the Rats.

Now about Paul Allan Cook, who rode Almanac to victory in the Invitation race at Bangalore(1982) His career came to a sudden end when he was involved in what became an infamous pile-up at Doncaster which led to the 1989 St Leger being run at Ayr. Cook was making the running on MADRACOin the portland handicap when his mount abruptly fell causing the fall of JockeysIan Johnson and Ray Cochrane. Cochrane suffered a  broken collarbone. Cook and Johnson both severely injured never rode again. Four years after the melee Cook was awarded 3,52,000 Pounds in compensation by the High Cort, who ruled that there was a very strong possibility that MADRACO( Cook up) fell because of the state of the ground.

Why the affected jockeys in India and their families did not go to the Court.

This is where JAI should take up the matter seriously.

Ksmrow sir,

You are spot on. I agree with every word in your post.

Regarding 1600 mtrs in Bangalore, and some distances in some centres have tuned up.

I find star is superior than SIR cecil.

Note:  I suggest whoever want to follow this, when the racing commence do this paper work for 1 season for all centres and then start wagering.

             ***** The end*****  

Mr Vinay

You seem to have got offended with me .I don't want to berate you. Having asked for an example of race card,I had given you one.prove it that the horse won on better timing.it is you who has raked up the issue.if you cannot prove it,don't misguide people.You seem to have got the taste of your medicine.

Mr.sarvesh,

Are you making fool of yourself or trying to make fun of me don't know. This is serious business. Atleast have some ethics in life. I don't want grace your post by replying to it. But for others who are serious i tell you don't expect usain bolt to run on sledge mud and clock 9.59  consider him only on synthetic track. And he may not finish last second in marathon.. Hope you get it.

Thank you.

@ Vinay.gowda,

Nice to hear that you  got 46 winners from 60 Bets on noted filtered horses with your strategy to look for horses which clocked with in 2 sec above record timings of the Center. The timings which you are looking are generally clocked in class 1 some times in class2 races and terms races and in classics apart from good 3year olds with classic or semi classic potentials.

This strategy eliminates 80% or more races of the day in fact you may get 0,1,or2 races only  to wager, If 1 filtered horse in one such races odds  or mostly odd on and 2 or more more competing in same race you have to make right choices may get good odds on the winners.

What I understand you take only raw time or time published and add two seconds to record time of the distances of Center if you strictly follows this pattern you may not get any filtered horses in Bangalore 1600 mts races record time 1m34.9sec.

Raw time cannot be taken as base here is example :-

Bangalore June 23[2018]result with timings in race 79~

Poseidon.... 1-37.83

New creation... 1-38.07

Peluche...... 1-38.11

Hukum....... 1-38.25

Bangalore june24[2018] with timing clocked in race 87~

Sir Cecil........ 1-38.47

Star superior...1-38.50

Is it Race (79) four horses superior than sir Cecil and star superior?!

Mr Vinay.

 At the outset let me thank you for your gesture.since lock down I have not been able to have a look at race books. For sake of reference,let us consider race no 120 of Bangalore winter meeting 2020.(Derby day).the winner was Le Marc. carrying 59 kilos.1200 Mrs with timing of 1.13.84 (PTR ) 3.0

Lets try our hands at Hong kong racing.

Sarvesh,

If you have done some homework please can you give me 4 -5 examples, So that I can help you out and try to explain. I need race card. You can request admin to post the card (bol) and will brief you thoroughly.

Thank you.

@PDS

You are asking someone to explain a copy-paste job. Get real.

Kolamsri sir,

Hope is a good thing, may be best of things, and no good thing ever dies ( shawshank redemption). 

PDS sir,

Everything is simple and clear in universe,we make it complicated.

Regarding your doubts I will give one rough idea. These are the horses which I had my bets on.

Sakura, Victorious sermon, Aeolous, Air command, multifaceted ,Mauritiana , star superior,adjudicate,bateluer, awesome one.tutanakhamun,ruffiana,Kingsman, knotty ash, titus, exclusive North wind, corfe castle,Isabella, highly acclaimed, classic remark etc etc. can't spoon feed everything boss, please open Excel sheet do some exercise. Filter it which is convenient for you. Please go through atleast last 5 years it may not take more than a day to filter it out.

NOTE: I have shown the path not the destination. You need to tune up little on your own.  You need to decide the timings, distance, class, grade 3,2,1 races. 

It would be better if you have racecard downloaded from bol. Easy to make a data. I have last 4 years racecard, from 2014 to till date and my bets which I won and lost.

Thank you.

Hey Abbas bhai

At points would count in fair racing but here in Jndia it turns to 0.

Cheers

Cool Boy

Mr Vinay gowda.
I do agree that timing of a horse does matter.but that is not the only yartdstick.timing changes variably with penetrometer reading.many at times I have been deceived  following this.

@Vinay,

I dont think its that simple and your write up is not clear to all. Please clarify the methodology, because I have my doubts about the implementation of the proceedure. Shall be grateful.

So, hope is not lost completely. There is a bright light at the end of the tunnel. I will name the bright light as Vinay. Gowda.

I humbly request the author to log on to Racing.com and watch the races in Australia.Let him decide how much off what he has written does work

Dear Abbas,

Excellent article with positive message.

To solve an issue normally we approach through Men, Machine,and Method.

Here Men is faulty by not preparing , training , himself.

Men not studying Machine( horse) properly. It's behaviour, running pattern, fitness, looks , attachments etc.

Men not developing his own method to analyse, if he sticks on his on method will get winner's.

So overall it is the punters own problem for failure.

In my personal view method is so important. Some people who plays favourite are still continues as big bettors at bookies even after 27 years( I entered 27 yrs back). But foolish people like me interested only in longer odds. If the fancied hores is dead sure to win as favourite, not played, it is a mind set issue. My strike rate is very low even to 7/9 % only but manages to continue as I never changed my methods. One is to find a horse to follow up, second is my trade secret of finding a longer odds. I won many longer odds patiently waiting upto four years, the horse mesmerisor keep following it for four years and finally won on steel shoes with 1013 tote.

The another important part is separation of personal life and racing. Keep a rigid barrier and never jump over it.

I have been in racing for 27 years , still my family never get a clue about my hobby, because finding time and spending with family never compromised at any time.

After all develop it as a hobby, life is very much out side. Spend cautiously, because it is your hard earned money, develop own handicapping analysing method, stop cursing jockies and trainers, every reason for win is clearly written in racebook. Please read and analyse it.Dont bet in confusion, if can't take a decision, don't invest go to bar and have your favourite drinks.

This is my Ramadan gift to all.

Relief from all the  Ramayana/Mahabharata.

Raghavain,smartpoorpunter please I need special attention of yours here on this topic, and all those who say everyone are loser in racing you can't win in racing. You don't need MIT or Harvard degree to learn about Indian racing. All these days I kept this trade secret to myself because I found this on my own. requested some of them here but hypocrites didn't teach me about bloodline, index, etc. But God had other plans for me. This strategy has been worked before and works now and will after corona too lol.

1. Check the record timings of the race.

Example: if the record timings is 1.23.23 then choose the horse which had clocked 1:25.23 and below. 

2. Choose which centre, distance, class, graded races, you want to consider and bet.

I think everyone are smart enough to filter more from my strategy and can be a winner. Racing is not a game. For me it's more serious than life. You win you enjoy, if you lose you die. Be extra careful.

Important note: After all the filtering my strategy won't give you 50 runners and you will get 80 % and above result in a year. considering all the centres except Mysore and Delhi (scratch). 2019 -20 i got around 60 bets and 46 won .

I don't mislead innocent punters to scratch and don't do buttering. I respect people who they are and not what they are. I know they are many haters. but I least care about them. I look up to Major Saab,Ravi gowande posts becausethey write important factors about bloodline strength stamina etc and don't write which is already printed in race card like some one here take whole page to write about timing, distance, also ran, it rarely clicks and take all the credit. Am not new comer to fall to that dumb writeups.

In this first you select the strategy and then you choose horse. Not the other way around.

If anyone has any questions about my strategy . Bring it on.

But when it comes to actual racing it all depends on the whims of the connections..Whether. War hammer or  Impavid or the 3^rd one shud hit the wire 1st..

Its all decided in the paddock at the last moment when things are decided and discussed with the jockeys.

Even the jockeys are unsure till the last moment

J Abbas and all horse racing enthusiasts,

Perhaps the best horse racing movie I have ever seen.

BOOTS MALONE

at

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEyYl9sUKkE

Do watch.

Hi all  very good knowledge for the beginner and experience person also but the most important thing which you missed is field of the race some horses running in high filed not perform well but when the come down in low class they perform very well for example Deobainer is Bangalore based horse in his first three runs he run with horse like War hammer impavid and after two to three run when he came in calss 5  he win easily.and improve further.

Thanks.

Mr Abbas.

Your article is insightful,to say the least.but how do race punters  who are here to make a fast buck going to consider such parameters while betting.majority of them would rather rely on inside information or khabar than going through this grind.

@wild card entry

You are right. If you take all factors listed by @Abbas in to consideration,  you finally arrive at the doorstep of the favorite.!  Now the million dollar question is whether the favourite his on the job or not. Most likely it is not!! 

A " hidden horse " can probably be identified with some " out of the box " thinking. At the outset,  it certainly has got something going against. Probably the distance is against,  it is " doosra" or even " teesra", may be it has a second ring jockey on it's back or it has been prepared only in mock race/ swimming --- there can be many many more. 

I consider every horse running in the race and try to strike it off from contention. If for any reason,  I am unable to strike it off --it is my " hidden horse ".

Many big owners insist jockyes to take front coz they don't want anyone hamper their horse winning chances. All other owners undetstand this. Mainly if MAM and VM horses hit the front and take lead at 1000mts it's understood they r in job. So other Jockeys simply sit on saddle and complete the race not making any try. 

Such scenerio all your write ups would not help any punters. This s wgat racing in India. But it's only in few races other races study into deep will get punter sure shot winner.

Excellent explanation,but if you notice  there are some hidden horses, your points could be valued for this, but there other ways also to find most of the hidden horse. Which I seen punters roaring after the particular race.for example  I knew it it will come but did not play. Also I told you did you play..

Can every one throw some points how to track hidden horses. 

@Abbas,

I have read a write up on similar lines before also. Some portions are quite well covered by the writer and some of the portions are very raw e.g. intro and initial  paras. Any way,it covers a number of points and  I think it will be useful for the readers.

I would rather see repeat telecast of RAMAYANA

Salam Abbas Ji

Ramadhan Mubarak

What you have stated in your posting isabsolutely correct. But unfortunately in today's scenerio it does not work out at least in India. I have seen in Australian Races in one Race I have watched all the 7 horses of the field were on the finishing line. Judges found it too difficult to separate the winner. Here in India one a Horse takesa lead rest of them will never try. Neither stewards also does not take action. They feel when there is no possibility of winning why to harass the Horse.This is not the competitive spirit. It does not mean rest of the jockeys should hve an arm chair ride with their respective mounts. Manyhorses that could have been place never madean attempt resulting heavy loss for punters.  It gives an impression many races are fixed or pre planned.

Thanks for the informative posting.

ayyarnet

Excellent.

Verry verry helpful lessons,afterall i think some races are madeup.