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A proven system backed by good strategy is a must to win.

By chanakya | 09-Sep-2020

Every punter goes  to  races  with  the  single  aim, i.e.,  to win  money from betting.Most of  them  buy  the  race book  at the entrance and  decide their bet within 20 to  25 minutes available  between  races. Few punters carry  out  a  detailed  study before  the  races between  the  period  from  handicapping  stage  to  declaration  and  finally at  the  race time. Inspite  of  that many  of  them rarely  win  big and come  out  winners at  the  end  of  the  day  or  season.

why?

The main  reason is  the  unavailability  of  a  good  system and/or use  of  a  good  betting  strategy.

Therefore, to  win regularly a  punter  should develope a  good  handicapping system and  a  good  betting  strategy...

Post Your reply

83 Replies

chanakya said ...

On : 04-10-2020 10:38 am

Moses,

I've  been posting my  selections  since ages- more  than  20  years  on  this  column. They  are  still available  from  Jan '17  till !2 March '20. You can  analyse  them and  prove  me  wrong as  there  is  no  racing  and you  have  enough  time...

Furthermore I don't have to prove anything to  anybody. The  facts  are  there. Closing  with  Ten Commandments words - I am what  I am...

 

Moses said ...

On : 03-10-2020 07:49 am

Let racing start and see Chanakya's tips whether they hit the board.Not tips like Fav in race 3 will winOr fav No7 will lose.Then shall we know whether he is worth listening to.Or else self praise benefits no one

Champ said ...

On : 03-10-2020 01:23 am

@ Chanakya, this won't be your last reply to me, i am sure about it. Yes I know how to check the facts, you bet I do. Your statement of records are just a figment of your imagination, just like your fibbing about you being a winner is. Your records like Favourite won't win / Favourite may lose / and weaving a story of gain around it can be seen through by anyone who has seen enough in life from close quarters. By the way, I also remember your nice story of collecting 3rd Place payment on Malvika from bookies. 

Winners like to be discreet, more so when pursuit is something like Horse Racing, where 95% are losers. It's only the desperate who come back again and again with concocted stories to fulfill their uncherished dream of being a winner. I have seen at least 100s of your comments silently before commenting on yours. The more you try to come again & again with same stale wine put in different bottles, the more it screams out of your writings that you're a loser, a bitter one at that.

Vijayakumar said ...

On : 30-09-2020 08:01 pm

@ Chanakyaji,

        I concur with the views of Mr.Buddy who says that if the races are run with mutual understandings among Owners, Trainers , Jockeys and Bookies, then whatever be our betting strategy, it won't work. We saw this on many occasions where well backed horse finishing in the rucks while some dark  horse from their connections sprout wings and dashes to the winning post upsetting all our calculations.  If you still say that a good handicapping system backed with betting strategy is a must to win, then you have to prove it on a given day after the races are resumed.

     Hope you will agree.

buddy said ...

On : 29-09-2020 05:24 pm

The race/odds says horse no 3 best horse 'on money' shud win b 5 length .  Trainer / jockey says odds not good lets not win today -what happens to the handicapping system -  this part has to be taken into account while handicapping / betting.

1] handicapping standard has to be good [2] shud be able to spot malpractice before the race sometimes -and on most occasion malpractice shud be known after the race for future betting -  here onwards on-money betting in win will be more harmful for punters.

chanakya said ...

On : 28-09-2020 02:11 pm

 

@ all,

What The Doc said  is  correct - theoretically but will be very  difficult to put  in  practice. As a  human all of us have many  weaknesses and  shortcomings  which  gets  reflected in  our  responses, behaviour and attitudes. Nothing  wrong - because  we  are  not  robots; but it  amuses  me  to  read some  funny and  stupid remarks  or  statements  which delineate the  exact character  of  a person. Comments  on racing brings  out the true  character  or  nature  of  a  punter  for  all  others  to  see. There  are  two  types  of punters  who go  to  races. One  who claims ( really???) that he goes  for outing/entertainment/timepass etc... why they  don't go  to  picnics(enjoyment) or  cinemas, theaters, trekking( fresh air, healthy) and many other diversionary fields everyday for  the  same  purpose - they  will  get similar  thrills...

I'm convinced  that  all of  these excusemakers go  to  races  just  to  make  or  win  some  money, if  they  could...

I go  to  races  only  to  make  money which  finances  my 'extra' needs...

Everybody  or  anybody  who  goes  to  races   goes  there only  with  one  aim- to  make  money. Whether  he  makes  or  loses  is  a different  story.

 

@ champ,

This may  be  the  first but  probably  will be  the  last response to  people  like  you who can neither  read  nor  understand the facts...

When I lost  26 or more  or  less  straight bets  i was  already  more  than  80 units plus and  losing  26  or  62 straight  bets  will ot  wipe  out  my  capital. Similar  foolish  comment  was  made  by some  'holder' who did  not ( or  could  not?) check the 'records'...

 

 

chanakya said ...

On : 27-09-2020 11:58 am

@ Abhay singh,

My system and strategy  are  working  well and  will do  the  same  when  racing  resumes  after almost 8 months gap.

i don't  play  2  or  3  runners  in  every  race, but  I may  bet  on  2  or  3  runners in  2 or  maximum 3  races which  are  'open'  or  bracketed ( ) as  per  my  analysis. Otherwise I always  bet on  my  first  choice. I don't  bet  on races  where  I put ?? or ??? question mark but may bet  on  a  runner  on  which  I put only one? mark-  that  too  after  watching  him in  paddock parade because  there  is  something is 'amiss' in  his  rating.

The advice given  by  The  Doc  is  applicable  to  all  punters  but in  practice  very  few  % of  punters  follow it and  the  reasons  are  well known...

 

@ Ranjan,

It wqs  always  difficult  to  make money from the  races  and  will   remain  so for  average punter...

Pre-March performance  of  everybody - horses, trainers, punters  etc  will remain same  or  close  to  same as  they  were,  when this 'breakdown'  of  racing started...

Champ said ...

On : 27-09-2020 08:53 am

Lies, lies & if you question I'll feed you with some more lies.....that's my strategy.

I'll say that betting capital worth 20 units of bet is enough for myself to fund my foreign trips which come in my dreams, and then eulogise myself for keeping Zen like calm after losing 26 bets in a row.

I better run & conjure some more lies , lest someone asks , " Did you sell your shirt for the next 6 units once you went bankrupt with 20"?

Chase said ...

On : 26-09-2020 12:35 pm

The Doc is always Right. If one can't control of himself , he can not succeed however much he has knowledge and expertise. Impulse control very essential. There is always another day.

chanakya said ...

On : 26-09-2020 11:28 am

I agree with  The  Doc, that  there is  no  winning  formula in  racing  and  perhaps it  will never  be, but some  methods  or  systems or  strategies can  always  help  a  punter to  remain  afloat  in  this  game. But  to  win  a  substantial  amount, regularly a  punter  has  to  create a  system and or a  strategy whichgives  him  an  edge  over  others  in  this  game.

Strict  discipline  and  a  faith on himself and  his system/strategy is  a  must to  succeed as  well as  the  'stability' of thought  process in a  situation of  extreme  win  or  loss. Somewhere  i've  mentioned that  with  a capitol  20 times of  betting  unit  is  sufficient to win  enough to  make  a  living  out of betting ,provided  a  punter  has a  good  system  backed  by  good  strategy. I still believe  in  this  statement and  has proven  by my  arnings  in  the  truncketed Mumbai & Bangalore  season.

What  I mean  by strict  discipline and  faith in oneself  is  that  I kept  calm even  when  i  lost 26  consecutive  bets  in  4  days  from  27 February  to  5 March and  neither  increased  my  bet  nor  decreased it. I also  did  not  stop betting  and gradually  recovered  a substantial  part  of  my  loss  from  betting  between  6 March  to  12 March 20. Ups and  downs  must  be  faced  without  jumping  with  joy  or giving  up  in  despair is  my  formula  of  success in  addition  to  the  good  system  and  a  reliable  strategy... 

Abhay singh said ...

On : 26-09-2020 08:27 am

Chanakyaji you have a wonder ful strategy and it is working is absolutely fine. See you are a unique punter .what ever I say is not for you because you have developed something which very few or may be no other punter will be able to do.

You play 2 to 3 horses irrespective of the odds and also look at there paddock condition .I don't know how many times you find all 3 in pink condition.

What THE DOC says is absolutely true ,it is very difficult to control your immotions when you are loosing. Playing 2 to 3 horses in a day and controlling you immotion and not chasing you losses is the only strategy I now that can keep a punter in plus other wise it is very difficult.

Ranjan said ...

On : 26-09-2020 05:39 am

Once racing resumes, it is going to be very difficult to make money in the race course.

The average punter seems to have forgotten the weekly "whiplashes" he used to receive before March 2020.

But even those with proven system and a sound betting
strategy are going to find it difficult.

The fact is that this six month break has delivered a shock to the system. Nobody knows (except, perhaps, the insiders) which horse has "improved beyond recognition" and which horse has fallen back due to neglect by the connections.


Are the pre-March 2020 performances still relevant? By the time we answer this  question the opportunity to make money might have gone.

The Doc said ...

On : 25-09-2020 07:46 am

A proven system backed by good betting strategy a must win??? Of course, that’s why it is called a proven system and good betting strategy. But it will not work on its own unless it is supported by a glue which keeps them together. Any guess what that could be?? It is an important ingredient which no one talks about or acknowledges even though everyone is aware of it in their subconscious.

It is the psychological aspect which really determines whether you can be a successful punter or not. But who is a successful punter?? A successful punter is one who is disciplined, eager to learn and who is able to harness his emotions. It is a trait more of a character than the brain.

 People lose money in racing not because they have a wrong system or they do not have a good betting strategy, they lose because they can not control their emotions. If you are winning you are fine, you will follow your system and strategies, but you will not always win, call it law of averages or pendulum. After wins will come losses and it is inevitable. Here your psychology has bearing on what you do when the pendulum swings towards losses. Important thing here is to let go of losses and move on, wait for next opportunity which will be plenty. If one can do that then nothing can stop him from being a successful punter. A miniscule minority is able to do this.

  But its easier said than done. How you do it is up to you. There is one more system which everyone knows but ignore it, the stop loss. Limit the losses to certain amount, daily or monthly. Strictly stop after the stop loss is reached, no matter what.

As said earlier its easier said than done. It requires immense discipline and strong emotional character. Try to abide by these rules, but sometimes you can slip. So if you can harness you emotions and built a strong psychology you will not lose money. This lovely sport should just be a hobby and it should not come at a cost, is enough.

I don’t have any magic formula for winning, I just have suggestion for not losing. Sometimes money saved is money earned.

chanakya said ...

On : 24-09-2020 02:11 pm

@ Abhay singh,

I like  your  way of  argument.

Headpost is  about  making  money from  racing  and  its essential  requirements - a good system and  a  good  betting  strategy.

Paddock  look is  an  essential  part of  final decision. It give me  3  signals  or  messages- a  positive ignal  for  your  choice or  a  neutral signal and  thirdly a  negative  signal; the  choice  is  agitated, bored , lame,irritated, washy  etc ; which  makes me bet  or  pass  the  race...

Every  human  wants  to  invest  least  and  tries  to  get  more, rather  most, be  it  a  punter, stock trader  or  a  buyer  in  the  'subji' market - that  is  human  psyche. Will never  change.

You are  wrong; if  that was  true then  there would  have  been  long  Q's  when  a  10/1  wins; the  reality is  opposite  there  are  long  Q's  at  payout  windos  when  favorite  wins  and  hardly  2  or  3  when  an  outsider(10/1) wins...  because  'wishes  were  not  horses...'  It  is  only  a  'tenner  type' who  shouts  loudest - never a seasoned  punter...

Money  is  not  'a' factor - it  is  the  'ONLY'  factor  in racing.

Remember, Money  can  NEVER   beget money in racing- if it can then  many  millionaires would  have  become  billionaires while  opposite  is  the truth.

Winning big  or  small depends  on  punter's  psyche, moneybags do not  matter. Neither betting  on  flukes(10/1 +). Essentials  are  good  system and  good  strategy.

To prove  my  point I'll give my example. I started going to  races  few  years  after  Rajinder Krishan(RK) won  more  than  46  lakhs - NON TAXABLE, THROUGH  A  JACKPOT. Those  days tax  rates  were  so  high  about  90 to  96% on  income  of  this  level! I used  to  invest  80% of  my cash  on  Jackpot and  used  only  20% on  win, tanala, place  etc. Used  to  win occasionally  once  or  twice  a month  5000 to  15000 from  JP,  from  other betting there  was  no  appreciable ROI. Continued till mid 90's when  the  'craze'  for  the  jackpot died and  then  switched  over  to a  simple win betting.

Gradually started getting'even' while  continuously  improving  my  system  and  strategy. In  next  decade  I  recovered  my  losses and  since  last  several  years racing is  financing  my ambition  to  travel oveseas which  a  pensioner  can  never dream...

Investing big can  never( always) bring big  returns. Wise, clever, selective investing  will  - in any  field. winning  big  is  a  relative  term , for  a  tenner  punter winning  hundreds  is  a  big  amount  for  those who  bet in  thousands  a  win  of  lakhs  is  a  good  amount  and  for  those  who  bet  quarter,half or  a  peti winning  a  million only  is  good  amount.

Odds have only  secondary  importance  in  my opinion. Never consider  them binding or 'finale', because  money  is  not  earned on 'moving  odds'  but  on  other  factors...

Abhay singh said ...

On : 24-09-2020 09:09 am

@Chanakyaji I know many people give importace to paddock looks and if they are getting the result absolutely fine. See I always say  what you take from race course is what matters. Whether you play a 10/1 horse or a 30 paisa fav no body is going to give you a medal. Punters want to invest less and want more so they always chase longer odds horses . When some punter wins on a longer odds horse he will shout on top of his voice as if he is the biggest handicapper though he must have played only 500 bucks.he will forget all his losses in that excitement. A person playing a peti on a fav will never shout he will quietly go and collect his payment.

See money is also on factor on which a punter makes his decision. You will never play a pati on a 10/1 horse , you will always go for a fav or a second fav place. But is you have to play 1000 bucks you will look for a longer odds horse.

My point is odds and money are very important factor on which you make your decisions in the ring.if you really want to make money in racing it cannot be made on longer odds horses.racing is all about favs and second favs. Big amounts can only be invested on small priced horses and unless u invest big you will not earn big.

Cruise_B'lore said ...

On : 23-09-2020 05:42 pm

Hello Abhay,

I totally concur with your last sentence. Start of racing ought to be the prime priority with other factors being secondary.

regds,
Cruise

Abhay singh said ...

On : 23-09-2020 01:38 pm

@Ranjan  things will be very different when racing will start. No question of bookie odds.how the online system will work no body knows. At least the racing should start other things are secondary.

chanakya said ...

On : 23-09-2020 11:53 am

Buddy,

Rightly said,  that a  good  handicapping  punter can  still make  a  winning  bet  by  betting on more  than one  runner if  he  is  clear  that  the  race  is  between  these 2  or 3  runners  only. He  can  use  'dutching' the  race.

Paddock look is  a  very important  factor. Few  times  I've changed  my final  bet after  a  look at my  first  choice and  switched  over  to  second  choice. Moving  odds do  affect  but I've  never  given  them  much  importance; because  if  I  give importance, then I'll never  be  able  to  bet  at  10/1  chance which  may  come  out  better  than  the  favorite  , in  my  handicapping...

@ Abhay  singh,

Paddock  handicapping  is  not  a difficult thing. Perhaps  one  season is  enough to  learn  the basic  or  important  points which  will  help in  making  final  decision. Pulled  back  ears shows  the runner  is  agitated, flipping  of  tail and   and  upright  or  moving  ears  indicate  the  runner  is alert and  ready, etc. etc... 

Ranjan said ...

On : 23-09-2020 12:46 am

@Abhay Singh,
 You seem to be suggesting that a punter can sense some pattern in  the movement of bookmaker odds and make money.

I don't know  whether that would be possible with only Online Betting and a  single Tote.
 

Abhay singh said ...

On : 22-09-2020 09:57 pm

@Buddy it is true that it is not possible to select a single horse in every race. Playing more than one horse is an individual choice ,how he plans his game. I very rarely play more than one horse.at the end of the day what maters is winning . If you can win fine. 

As far as paddock parade is concerned I will admit iam a big zero in that.many people do that but I don't know how much sucessful they are. But from my experience I will tell you that the real answer of ever race lies on the board. As you say bookie odds are very confusing true but the puzzle will never be simple. Races are won on the board not on the track.lt is a very complex puzzle why a horse suddenly becomes so negative . Reading the board does not mean that you play every horse on which money flows , then you will never win.

buddy said ...

On : 22-09-2020 05:39 pm

Abhay Singh - I like your posts its makes sense  2 points don't -

1] Punter's who are good at handicapping do play more then one horse in certain races ...sometimes .

2]Your statement 50% book handicapping and 50% bookie odds wrong way- 50% book 50% paddock reading if you know how to read them - bookies odds is most confusing ....but if book/paddock matches with money flow its good.

Abhay singh said ...

On : 21-09-2020 07:47 pm

@Mr Ranjan , I am for last 10 years into racing and I can say that this mountain can be claimed. It is certainly not an impossible tast as most of the people believe to make money in racing. But you will have to be very smart . Just by selecting horses from the race book and playing will not solve this puzzle and you will not win .50 percent of the racing is from book and 50 percent is from from the bookie odds and you need understanding of both. It is more important to understand which race to leave than which race to play.make your own strategy and stick to it you will win. Dont go there to select the winner, go there to make money. Select the horse that will give you money match it with bookie odds and then play it.if place option is there play place.

chanakya said ...

On : 21-09-2020 11:11 am

@ Ranjan,

Raw timings, as published  depend  on  Penetrometer(PNR) values which  are  published in the racebooks.Lesser  the  PNR  faster  will  be  timinigs and  vice versa.PNR value  is  taken  at  6 to  8  places  on  the raceday and  their average is  displayed on  the  board. Trimming  and  watering  will  affect  this  value which  inturn  will contribute  to  final  time.

Furthermore, Indian racing is  different  than  US or  some other  countries. In any  race  initial  pace  is rather  slow where  serious  runners  try  to  gain  position and  vantage  place. The  Indian  race takes seriousness  only  in  last  600m during  which  the  pace  will  be  faster. Therfore  attention  may  be  taken for  the  stretch  of  this length  of  the  track, upto  the  winning post...

@ Vijaykumar,

I've  clearly proved in my betting  strategy  part II how  I  won about  90 units from  20 days  betting on Mumbai & Bangalore  races during  Jan-March 2020. I cannot  repeat  it  for  any  of  these  tom,dick & harry's. My betting  unit also  has  been posted  innumerable  times and  I'll not  repeat it. It was  clearly  mentioned  that  there  was  no  'rolling', inspite  of  that if  somebody can  not  understand ; I don't  know  what  to  call  him...

Ranjan said ...

On : 21-09-2020 01:34 am

Mr. Ramanujan,
In my earlier post, I did not intend to challange or disrespect anybody.
My main motivation is as follows:
I and many other struggling punters would just like to know if there is any punter who is making serious money in the race course.

I do not want to know his system and neither do I want to know his identity.

I would just like to know whether this mountain can be climbed. If I know that somebody has successfully climbed this mountain, I would redouble my efforts.
 

Ranjan said ...

On : 20-09-2020 10:16 pm

@Chanakya,

I am happy to see that you have considered the non-linear effect of carried weight. But I have noticed elsewhere that you also take into consideration the timing. Timing is a very popular parameter for punters who are scientifically inclined.

But I have a problem with it.

It is as follows:

Grass grows and it has to be watered now and then.

Race clubs cannot trim the entire track on one day. Neither do they water the entire course on the same day. They water or trim the grass from the WP to 400 metres on one day and some other day they handle from 400 meteres to 800 metres and so on.

We punters are never given any information about this exercise.

Surely, this activity on their part induces randomness in your Timing analyses.

Suppose you are analysing the Timing for 1400M
race, you really don't know which part of the track has been recently timmed or watered. So your analyses base on Timing is bound to have errors.

Have you considered this? If so, How do you handle it?

Vijayakumar said ...

On : 20-09-2020 08:42 pm

@ dancing dynamite,

          May be  Mr.Chanakya's betting strategy is quite different from others which fetches him enormous wealth as claimed by him.  If it is true, we punters who often bite the dust in race betting, should appreciate him and follow his foot steps for profit.  Instead we should not doubt about its authencity and ask for the BALANCE SHEET from him to prove his claims. If you feel that Mr. Chanakya is making a comedy,  just laugh it out. After all he is also one of our co-punter.

ramanujan said ...

On : 20-09-2020 01:17 pm

 

Hi Ranjan Bhai,

Thank you for your invitation(I assume an RSVP tag is attached) for participation in the seemingly innocuous ‘Dhoodh ka Dhoodh, Pani ka pani’ Agni Pariksha. More than not being under any obligation, the fact remains  I’m too lazy to participate. Not that I’m scared. I’m game with instantly handed out reward or retribution, as the case may be, attached with bets made by me exercising due diligence. I’m no doubt at times keen to give expression in this fabulous forum to the experience gathered over the years. If this by any chance could result in some remote empowerment somewhere happiness is mine.

Cheers

Ramanujan

 

chanakya said ...

On : 20-09-2020 11:12 am

@ Anil Xk,

I'm not opting out  due  to  negative  comments - they  don't  affect  me. Ofcourse  stupid and irrelevant  comments  do. I expect criticism  or  negative opinion and  disagreement on the  subject and/or  the  logic  or  the  opinions  expressed  here by  anybody  to be  objective  with logical reasoning  and  not an attempt of character  assassination.

However, democrcy  does  not  permit people  to  go berserk... 

dancing dynamite said ...

On : 19-09-2020 04:40 pm

@Ranjan, Posting of choices would never help in proving a win or loss.  A person like Chanakya would give 3 to 4 choices with some vague statements and after the race result, would mould the statements in his favour.  If his horses win one after another, in evening his bets would be rolling, otherwise flat bets.

Winning and losing can only be assessed if one gives a bet amount also.  And that too clearly .  I am sure, the millionaire would not turn up for that.  

R Venugopal said ...

On : 19-09-2020 02:23 pm

Hi Friends , I prefer to follow these horses in future when they hit their prime form . . Some of them have already won .. Every Trainer n Owner will aim to qualify these horses for Derby .. All r 3 yr old and due to corona effect they have less time ( Oct to Jan ) .. so This year Trainers concentration on these Classy horses when compared to older horses .. atleast if they don't qualify for derby , they will win or place in other races n u can note down horses from normal trainers also. I like 65th horse Socrates from Shroff , Class pedigree n good trainer , it may reach Derby card . But please go through other horses as time goes on u will see results .  119 horses r more than enough to try out for this season , chose wisely in races .                          http://www.rwitc.com/sweepstakes.php?id=446 ... Good luck Punters .

Vijayakumar said ...

On : 19-09-2020 01:53 pm

 This topic on betting strategies has attracted immense response from various knowledgeable punters on different angles. This is obviously due to the concerted efforts being taken by the turf clubs in India to kickstart horse racing as early as possible consequent to the announcement of several liberalisations on the curfew imposed by the Governments concerned.  It is quite evident that punters are very eager to wager a bet as soon as the races are commenced.

      Set apart a major portion of your monthly income for the essential expenditures of your family before wagering a risky bets in horse racing. Everyone knows there will be no sure shots in this equine sport.  I adopt this strategy in my racing career.    I never mingle office and racing in my life.

        Good day to all.

chanakya said ...

On : 19-09-2020 12:41 pm

@ Ramanujan,

I appreciate your  points of  view and the  logic  used  to  explain them so  well. Various components  of  handicapping have  been discussed  many  times  in  these  forums but  Iam  afraid  to  say  that  very  few  has  taken  them  seriously to  improve  their  ROI. A system  or  strategy  is  useless  if  it  does  not  give   'good' positive  ROI over  a  period which  will  ALWAYS  include  some  negative ROI days.

My system  based  on 5 or  6 components enumerated  earlier has given me  good  ROI since many  years and  that  is  why I've shared  its  components  here, though  they  are  wellknown  to  all handicappers  and  punters  since ages. Developing  it  took  me several  years and  the end  results  I've  been  posting  in  tips  threads  of  these  forums  since  long. Anybody  can develope  similar system with some  effort. Sharing  it  will  bring  at  par  with  Beyer's numbers given  in DRF (Daily  racing  form) and  lose  its  uniqueness.

For  example, take  the  case of  weight. Ray Taulbot  was  so  disgusted with  it  that  most  of  the time  he  advised  to  ignore  it. But  i  give  it lot  of  importance. Many  people agree  that  its  effect  varies  with  the  distance  of  the  race- same  difference may  be  less  effective  in  a  sprint  than  a  route race. But  I consider  it in  a  more complex  way. Idon't  accept that  45  to  52  kg will produce  same  effect  on  a  runner which  55  to  62  kgs. will  or  a reduction  from  52 to  45  kgs. will produce  same  effect which 62  to  55  will do. the  effect  of  weight  on a  runner  is  not  linear. This  requires   several  tables for  different  distances  and  different weight  changes. How  many  punters/hndicappers  will take  trouble  to   make more  than  half  a  dozen  graphical  tables?

Regarding  proof. How  many  times  I've  to  give  proof? Because  of  no  racing  during  last  6 months  I've  worked nd  given  my winnings with  reference  to  closing  prices  of  BOL book  for  Mumbai (15 days)  and  Bangalore(5 days)  seasons only  for  th  selections  posted  on  this  forum. The  combined  return is  about  90 units or  more for  these  20  days of  punting. We have  abundance  of  racing  from  July  till March at  3  or  4  centers , for  9  months  giving a  punter  almost 200 days  of  active racing... 

 

 

 

Anil Xk said ...

On : 19-09-2020 09:36 am

Dear Chanakya,

Opting out after getting some negative comments is not positive. You are highly knowledgeable personal with good insight. Expecting negative comments and going through it is good. We are living in a democratic society please go ahead 

Ranjan said ...

On : 18-09-2020 10:15 pm

To
      @Abhay Singh
      @Adjudicatewar
      @Anilxk
      @Aravind
      @Chanakya
      @Chandragupt
      @Dancing dynamite
      @Einstein
      @Kautilya
      @Ksmrow
      @Raghavan
      @Ramanujan
      @Vijayakumar


Unlike earlier days, with online betting, a smart phone or a computer is always accessible.

There is now an opportunity to decide who is a really good punter and who is just 'Hot Air'.

Dhoodh ka Dhoodh, Pani ka pani.

Once online betting starts, all of us can post our choices in a chosen HorseTalk Thread just before a  race starts.

Indiarace would show it only after the race is over.

Even the time that you posted your choice can be seen.

So there is no question of cheating.

Are you guys game?
 

ramanujan said ...

On : 18-09-2020 01:46 pm

>Hi All, A proven system backed by good strategy is a must to win’ speaks it all. Simply put it has two parts. A proven system followed by the application of a good strategy. The system stems from one’s own research with various well-known (illustrative but not exhaustive) parameters of pedigree, handicapping tools, age, class, distance suitability, the relative merit of participants thrown open in a crucially recent and past performances, etc., fairly discussed in detail in these columns and elsewhere by experts on different occasions. Should one has painstakingly taken a sincere ride throw this phase, can we just label this as the basic science of elementary yet fundamentally essential groundwork to gain knowledge. But beware now you have just acquired the ability to cross half of the well only. Rushing to encash on this vital quantum of knowledge alone, under the inevitably normal spell of human weakness of misplaced confidence and ‘I  now know it all’ belief. Sporadic gains at this stage are no matter of comfort when confronted with risks of grave financial injuries often disproportionate to the former. Patience and the proper balancing act is vital to stay afloat.

We now come to the more important part of the keys viz., strategy, and its application. It’s like entering the caves of Alibaba and forty thieves – no, always add one and say, forty-one thieves. Yes, if you know precisely the number you deemed to have conquered it all. Always give allowance to ensure your safety and be prepared to get pounced by one from nowhere and thwart your plans in the chase of bounty. The seemingly sounding rhetoric is consciously intended to caution punters against lurking dangers all the time until you encash your winning ticket.

Coming to speak  of the strategy aspect you may consider it an Art form as against the science, aspect discussed earlier. You have plenty of variables on the table demanding your nuanced approach and analysis. In a population of say 400 horses or even more each distinct by way of age, sex, pedigree, etc., the numbers get multiplied exponentially beyond imagination if you recognize the fact that the same animal at different weights take different avatars influencing its performance or otherwise. The fitness issues on any day as revealed by known track work, lay off issues, bodyweight on a given day the drop not to be confused with health issues like blood vessel breaking, the rustiness revealed by gaining weight is there on the horizon as pointers.I struggle hard to confine me to just peripheral elements illustrative but not exhaustive to save me from being mocked at for indulging in Ramayana and Mahabharatha tales  (though still, I do not rule out the possibility)

There’s yet an all-pervading part of the strategy that can hardly be overlooked lies in punter’s ability to  develop a nose to sneak through  the records as to how a stakeholder is moving his pawns (read his wards) too and forth and identify with nuances at your command  to exploit  all by yourself the exact moment  of a successful assault. Shuffling of  jockeys of caliber, apprentices claiming allowances with or without whips etc., on horses, having different  body weights, some preferring lower weight on their back yet others capable of  braving higher weight, horses resistance to optimum performance on increased deadweight  tend to convey useful messages to the discerning  punters focussed on meaningfully understanding and interpreting the past to help oneself cracking the event on hand. Everyone is aware, no race is actually won by a horse until it not merely crosses the winning  post but also gets white cone nod.  Horse racing wielding such a critical background It’s no wonder that it is quite natural for any  winning strategy worth the name to deliver goods unless being open to fine-tuning till the post parade exercise, display of body weights, movement of odds.etc.,

No point lies  in demanding the thread author Chanakyaji in soliciting  the validity of the ever-elusive system with proof of successful field trial results as if development of a foolproof vaccine is involved to handle the elusive winner picking exercise. He does deserve all the fairness to the extent of opening up what he feels right.

Cheers

Ramanujan

 

Abhay singh said ...

On : 18-09-2020 12:46 pm

@ Mr Ranjan do you know somebody who has made lots of money from race course and did not get respect in society. Then why do you say this just because you know you can't win from race course. Ranjanji society only respecrts money, people with no money are treated like animals. 

You say it is graveyard still you are interested in racing. Please don't do something which you hate so much.

 

JP said ...

On : 18-09-2020 09:21 am

This man is a "MAGICIAN"  and like all magicians he wants everybody to clap and appreciate. All spectators do not know the secrets behind the performance but all clap and shower accolades. Atleast we see the performance of the magician on stage but this man's performance is only self boasting and building castles in the air.

Krish said ...

On : 18-09-2020 01:33 am

@ CHanakya

dont get disappointed from others who not understand your words coz it happens as it is.. but, because of it may be your horse odds will increase.

I like your way of thinking... so please keep posting your selections.

chanakya said ...

On : 17-09-2020 10:05 pm

@ Ranjan,

I don't  consider, trianer ,owner,jockey or  other  punter as an opponent. The  only opponent  for  me  is  the  bookie  with  whom  I've  placed  my  bet. It is  my  money  vs  his  money; it  is  my  knowledge  vs  his  info etc. I don't  bet  at  tote -will not  elaborate  further...

In any  field  where  you  want  to  make  money - intelligence, hard  work , dedication are  prerequisites except  in  your  father's  'business' where  he  may 'tolerate' the  incompetence...

your  last  paragraph is  too  good  to  ignore. Every  old  or  new  punter  must think  about  it...

@ Chandragupt,

I'm not  deserting; I'm not  a  coward. I'm just  fed up  and  tired  with  fools and  reducing  my interaction/response. Tell me  why should  I  continue, the  other  site  is  struggling for  existence while  here  we  find  only  stupid  or  childish  comments. Ignore  whom?

@ Abhay singh,

Why  don't  you  understand  that  most  of  the  competitors  in  any  game  are  losers - yes  it  is  true  that  they  don't  lose  their  money  but  do  lose  their  respect, standing and  many  subtle  positions. In racing  they  lose  only  money but  cry  hoarse and  blame  everyone else, except  themselves , for  their  stupid and wrong bets...

I'm a  winner and  win  regularly and  don't  have  to  prove  everytime. The  current  Mumbai & Bangalore  season has  proved  it -even  in  2006/7 season  on  my blog  I've  proved  it.

To get  the proof  go  to  the  'Betting  strategy  threads - part I & II  where  there  are  about  400 responses ,where winnings  as  per  closing  odds  are  given and a respectable  amount  has  been  earned...

By  the  way  , why  should  I  prove  again  and  again that  I'm a  winner...

Past  results and  facts  don't  prove  that?........................................ 

chanakya said ...

On : 17-09-2020 09:23 pm

@ Aravind,

High stakes(class I) or  low  stakes ( classIV or A)  winners behave  same  way and  the  returns  do  not  depend  on  class. Yes  there  may  be  ony  105 sure  winners  but  proper  handicapping   can  give  more  winners if   bets  are  intelligently  spread.

Talking  about  Be  Safe  is  no  point  now.  He  lost  and  the  topic  was  discussed  in  length  at  that  time. Ask admin to  reproduce the threads  of  that  time  , you'll know  the  reason....

@ Ksmrow,

Yes  only  'fittest'  can  survive  in this game - I'm still alive in this  game  after more  than  4 decades; but  may  be  out  soon...

Abhay singh said ...

On : 17-09-2020 12:20 pm

@ CHanakya it is a fact that most of the punters are loosers and most of them are not ready to accept that winning is possible in racing and you claim to be a regular winner. Since you want to prove that winning is possible prove that by giving you selection just for one week as the races will start shortly.

Chandragupt said ...

On : 17-09-2020 05:18 am

Dear Chanakya....don't desert us. People of your experience are in short supply. Youngsters need your valuable guidance. Ignore them and do continue with your good work. Please don't disappoint.

Ranjan said ...

On : 17-09-2020 12:13 am

@Chanakyaji,

You assert that a punter should develop better skills than his opponents. In the list of opponents you include trainers, jockeys and tipsters.

But actually, a pinter has only ONE OPPONENT  and that is the fellow punter. We are all competing only against each other and not with any jockey or trainer or owner or tipster. When you win  a race, the money does not come from the owner's or trainer's pocket. It comes from the pockets of your fellow punters. 

This is a game where only  a few punters (if at all) win and the rest are slaughtered. Any punter who does not internalise this fact is cannon fodder.

To any freshie punter I would say that the racecourse is  more likely to be your "Shamshaan" than your "Karma Bhoomi".

Realise that making serious money here requires great intelligence and dedication. If you have great intelligence and are ready to work dedicatedly, success is assured in the outside world. Furthermore, society does nor respect you for your success in the race course.

 

Vijayakumar said ...

On : 16-09-2020 08:56 pm

@ Ksmrow, Well said. I concur with your views totally. Focusing on the issue and not the person will lead to healthy discussion. It is an empathy seeking to understand the other point of view also. Healthy disagreement, debate lead to compromise which is always been the American's way. We can practice this here also. Nice day to all.

chanakya said ...

On : 16-09-2020 01:57 pm

Everyone  here  expresses  his  opinion based  on  his  experiences -good  or  bad. It  is  an  acceptable  universal  fact. Very  few  can use  logic to  contradict  an opinion - forget aout  contradicting  a  fact; but  it  is  astonishing to  see that  most  of  the  writers do  not  even acept the  proven  facts. This  only  happens  in  India!  

Why?

Allover  the  world the  losers  outnumber  the  winners, MANY  TIMES  in  ANY  GAME  but  nowhere  except  Indian racing  the  losers are  so  vehemently opposed  to  the  winners. Interviews, personal opinions, game experts  analysis, even MEDIA  accepts the  results - real or MANIPULATED  with  some  reservations  somtimes. Indian punter  never  does  that and  that  is  why  he  can  not  come  out  of  the  grooves created  by him for  himself.

Horseracing  is  a  game  of  skill  and  to  win in a 'game of  skill'  a punter  MUST DEVELOPE  BETTER  SKILL  than  his  oppnents - trainer, jockey, opinion makers, 'khabris'  and other interested parties who may willinglly or  unintentionlly try  to  confuse  or  mislead  him.

A REGULAR WINNER STICKS  TO  HIS DECISION- inspite of diversions...

 

I'm tired  of  useless  discussions and  responding  to  stupid insinuations because  it  neither  adds  to  my  knowledge  or information  nor  to  any  tangible help  to  hapless punter/(s) and  therefore, I've  decided  to  be  less  and  less  visible  on  these  forums in  future....................................

Ksmrow said ...

On : 15-09-2020 01:16 pm

Hi all,

Not only in racing in life also

failures are 90%, in races and life we measure  success in money one earned,in life and racing There are more fortunate ones who are able to extract joy and happiness from what they achieved(knowledge) looks to others as contentment  more  than real success. 

chankya has vast experience 

In racing researched in this feild has created his own calculation or method of short listing to 1,2 or three in a race and strategy to back all his choices and telling he is in profits Believe it or not it is left to you all. I may be touching bee hive but to get honey(peace) one has to do that bites doesn't matters,the three have great command of English and writing skills with many years experience in wagering on horses two  of them able to continue for 4decades or more certainly they are not perennial losers

Only fittest can survive so long the other was also in the game for 3 decades until that bad day he chooses to go with 5 horse rolling now he has taken a wise decision to quit We should appreciate that also listening to his appeal or not is one's choice let us enjoy their views in our Own way please understand.

 

 

Aravind said ...

On : 15-09-2020 12:09 pm

All have missed one valid point. Ofcourse various methods r used to zero in finding clear cut winners from a race but in reality not even 10% obliged. All calculations, handicap,jockey,trainer, distance can be good yardstick to arrive a sure shot winner only in High Stake Money races. It won't work out for VB cl 4 , and in aged horses. In such races inside information, and other sources only wud help for laying betting. My simple question to all punters even if we have arrived at a conclusion that a horse wud be sure shot winner, why Be Safe lost race. What wud happen for all calculations. So racing is not mathematics . If we win today we may lose next day. Ppls telling so much earned and got bungalow, car foreign trips all lies. If I won 2lalhs today I wud be tempted to pay 1 lakh next day. It wud lose then I will swaer to get back that money I will lose another 2 lakhs. This s how every punters life going every race day. Nobody after winning high amount say goodbye to course and fly away.

Punterbychoice said ...

On : 14-09-2020 07:07 pm

I met with a key person of turf authority couple of months ago and enquired why race is stopped. He told me that  race in India stopped permanently because Mr Chankya invented a strategy and  started looting bookies everyday. All bookies will bankrupt soon so we don't have any option left rather than closing.

Congratulations Mr CHANKYA for making history. 

JP said ...

On : 14-09-2020 06:11 pm

I agree, that this man keeps blowing his own trumpet and keeps shouting over the roof top about some  PROVEN SYSTEM. Where and how this so called system proved. He has never even explained the broad guidelines except saying handicap system. Why do you keep saying this repeatedly without clear explanation probably fearing that others may adopt this MIRAGE system. If you are such an expert and making money in tons, our hearty congratulations and keep it yourself. I wish Administration stops this repeated trumpet blowing  of this man from publishing since it is being repeated by him.

dancing dynamite said ...

On : 14-09-2020 03:02 pm
Chanakya is interested in giving paid classes. His intentions are/were clear all the time.

adjudicatewar said ...

On : 14-09-2020 02:50 pm

@kautilya,

I am sure chanakya doesn't have any formula but I do have the formula that can affect bookies and they can't change to any strategy to win against me once the races start bookies will know and I am not going share my strategy becoz If every one follows the strategy which I discovered will make bookies in loss. So let me win.

chanakya said ...

On : 14-09-2020 11:48 am

@Kautilya,

I am also surprised - not  amazed, at  your poor  understanding  of  my  postings. My claims  are  always  proven  and  advice to  apunter   to  'improve his knowledge' will also  remain same. It  is  a  'sane' advice  rather than  the  advice  given  by  others.I've  clearly  given  the  5 important ingredients  of  my  system  in my  post  of 10/9/20 at  10.17 PM and  you  failed  to  understand the  importance. However I'll againtry  to  explain for your  benefit. They  are  speed corrected  by  PNR value, current  form expressed  by  trackwork, class towhich  the  runner  belongs, consistency  shown  by  previous  records and  weight  variation - weight  going  up  reduces and  weight  going  down  improves the  performance. Amalgamation  of  these  and  comparison  with  other  runners  clearly  narrows  the  real  contestents  to  2  or  3 and  the  a  punter  can  make  decision. Cleverly  worded  'bark'  can not diminish or nullify  the  truth that  using  these  parameters  I've  won  enough ( a million or  a  billion?) in 2015/2016 which  financed  my  40 days  trip  to  USA from  17/6/16 to  28/7/16 travelling  the  country  from  east  to  west  and  north  to  south.

I have  always  shared  the ingredients  and the results  of  my  system  on  these  forums  since  2004- even  much  earlier than  that! My selections  for  Pune, Hyderabad  <mysore, Bangalore  wtc. are  stillscattered  and  available  on  these  forums. Furthermore, I don't  need  any  recognition from  those  who  do  not  matter, neither  from  those  who  matter. My  aim of  writing here or anywhere is  to  help  a  punter  to  improve  his  ROI. If  you  don't  like  it  why don't  you  ignore  and  skip my postings?

 

Vijayakumar said ...

On : 14-09-2020 11:24 am

@kautilya,

  Some members in HT are in the habit of telling people how good or successful they are in their betting strategies, blowing their own trumpets. But it cut no ice and  often fail to influence or make an impression on others.

       The learned SSPPji has indicated this in his articles which we have read many times in these columns. It is better if he could join this debate and offer his valuable comments on the ongoing topic so that the freshers would understand the sport clearly.

    With regards.

         

Moses said ...

On : 14-09-2020 07:58 am

I wonder why some people go about in circles convincing others  that they are experts.

Just post three tips before race time and people here will judge for themselves

Kautilya said ...

On : 13-09-2020 07:07 pm

 

@ Chanakya

 

Every time I visit horsetalk i see your oft repeated article. You continue to amaze me man. The claim remains the same and the advice too. Its pompous bark, huge looking but hollow inside. If you have discovered some system thats paying you handsome returns then why are you so reluctant  to disclose it. Knowledge doesnt diminish by sharing. From what I remember your last claim of million rupees roll was teared apart here in this forum. Unless you are willing to share your so called knowledge of a system, there is no point in discussing the stale topic over and over again.

 So if you really believe in you system then you should share it with others, unless you are not sure about it or you are afraid of failure of your system. Trust me, punters do not follow other punter however expert he may be so don’t worry about people benefiting from your spectacular system. Also don’t worry that once you disclose your theory, bookies or clubs may change their strategy to loot public. No one in the world has that power to affect clubs or bookies.

 So if u really want recognition, which is evident from your numerous attempts, you should disclose what you want to recognized for. Otherwise there will nothing but be brickbats.

Adios amigo, till your next post.

 

Abhay singh said ...

On : 13-09-2020 02:36 pm

@ CHANAKYA please don't take it otherwise, I always appreciate people who are winning what ever strategy u use, at the end of the day what matters is what u win ,how you win doesn't matter. When you say iam winning I believe  you , no need to proove that. 

 

chanakya said ...

On : 13-09-2020 11:45 am

@Abhay singh,

I've  not  changed  track - you  have  not  understood  my  point. I don't  use  a  formula but  use  the  ystem  based  on  the  parameters  enumerated  earlier and  except few  cases it  gives  many  times  2  or  3 probables  which  can win and  forces  me  to  either  leave  the  race  or  play  both  or  all  3  probables. For  example; on  2/1/20, in 1st. race  Nicollini was  clearcut and  I gave  only  one  choice  ,in 2nd. race 5&4 were equal and  i played  both. In 3rd. race I could  not  find  any (??) and  skipped it  ( a fluke  10/1 won).  In 4th race 8 was  clear  win  and  7  was  place and  in 5th race 'favorite  was  to  lose' so I played  6&5. Only  when  I say  'open' race  i play  all the selections - max  3; never  gave 4 selections   so  playing  4  selections does  not  arise. If  ever  I choose 4  or  5  then  I'll use 'Dutching' system...

Agreed  you  have  not  seen  anyone  winning  by playing  more  than  1 choice but  I've  won regularly in a season by  playing  more  than  one  choice. Current  Mumbai  and  Bangalore  season are  a  proof  of  my  claim. My winnings are given  in the  head  post  of  betting  strategy  part II.

Tipsters give 3  choices, I've  no  comment - may  be  they  re  giving  it  for forecast, tanala  etc. I don't  find any  reason  why  you  are  againt  it , you  pick up  their  first  choice and  analyse  their  success  rate...

 

@ Einstein,

 Yes , let  the  real racing  start without  spectators...

Einstein said ...

On : 13-09-2020 01:55 am

@Chanakya

OK sir. I'll wait for active races to begin.

Champ said ...

On : 12-09-2020 11:20 pm

The humbug strikes again......

No.hypocrisy said ...

On : 12-09-2020 10:16 pm

Einstein,

Chanakya will share the formula once the white cone is hoisted.......

chanakya said ...

On : 12-09-2020 06:33 pm

@ Ranjan,   your 1.14AM.

You are  absolutely  correct. Majority  of  punter were  always  losing  and  will always  lose  in  future- there  is  no  disagreement on  this  fact.

Iam not  very  knowledgeable  person  but  have good  knowledge  of  basic  handicapping  principles  and  their  variations  which  makes  me remain  in  profit, which  is  the basic  requirement  of  a  winner. The  day  majority  of  punters reach  my  level  of  understanding , I'll be  one  of  them - a  loser.  I've  no  doubt  about  it.

Wealth  is  created  and  also  lost  in  racecourse. It  is  exchanged  only  on  tote.It  is  created  or  lost  in  the 'ring' where many  punters  may  lose  but  few  may  win  and  the  distribution of 'wealth' is  uneven unlike  on  tote.

Many  thanks  for  your  best  wishes for  the  coming  season - I really  need  them...

 

Einstein,

I've  no  winning  formula.  I've created  a  handicapping system which regularly  gives  me  'probable'  winners and  using  betting  strategy as  explained  in  my  betting  strategy  threads earlier ; it  keeps  me  afloat. There  is  no  racing  since  last  6 months  and  perhaps one or  2  more  months  will go  dry. Only  in  November  I may  be  able  to use  it, I hope...

Abhay singh said ...

On : 12-09-2020 04:57 pm

@chanakya  now you have changed the track.first u say you are doing handicapping using 5 to 10parameters and spotting the winner and winning in race course.now you say you play 3to 4 horses .if you play more than one horse that means you are not sure of you handicapping.if you are winning absolutely fine but I have not seen any one winning playing more than one horse.

Now you say movement in odds will effect you decision .you your self say that some horses in every race are run just to lower there handicapp. That means these horses are not being tried by the connections how will you judge that that is the question. If your selection is in thi set which is there just to lower the handicap.

See u may be winning by playing 3to 4 horses no problem at all. at the end of the day what matters is winning .but people who play more than one horse or give more more than one hores in there selections are fluke handcappers because they are not sure of there selections. Tipping 3 horses is of no use as most of the people do.bol is there to give 3 horse and most of the time winner is there from those 3 but of no use.

Einstein said ...

On : 12-09-2020 02:50 pm

@Chanakya

When are you going to start implementing your winning formula? All the knowledge and strategy to do so.

chanakya said ...

On : 12-09-2020 11:45 am

@ Abhay Singh,

 My point is - handicapping  is a  system which  compares  the  available  data of  each  runner and  tries  to evaluate  their  chance to  win. It  is  not  a  formula and  therefore, if  applied  correctly it  is  applicable  to  all  centers. I don't  give  any importance  to  connections  intentions and rely  only on  my 'numbers' and  sometimes  play a 'jodi' or  sometimes  even 3 runners  in  a  race as  is  evident  from  my  postings  in  tips  thread. Regarding  moving  odds  you  have  a  point, I agree. I will not  bother  if  odds  move  up/down  by  50% of  opening  odds but  any  more  variation - I'll reject  that  race and  will not  bet  at  all. My 2/1/20 selections  truely  show  my  methodology.

They  were: race 1) Nicollini,  2) 5 4 jodi,  3) 1 5 10?? 4)  8  7place  2,  5) (365) open race, fav will lose,  6)  546,  7)  (582) open.

No ambiguity for  race 1. race  2  no.5 'value' 50 and  no.4  value 51 forces  me  to  play  'jodi' . race 3 is confusing  -tobe  ignored; and  so  on.

I am not  using  any  formula - only  using the handicapping  principles enumerated  earlier and  'converted'  into  a  numerical  format...

In race  5, I used  astro to say 'fav  will lose' and values  of  3,6,5  were  close but  leaving  3(fav) I bet  6 & 5 though  they  were at  20/1 and  10/1. 'Good' handicapping  does  throw these  high priced  winners occasionlly and we  should  have  the  guts  to  encash these  opportunities...

Ranjan said ...

On : 12-09-2020 01:14 am

@ Chanakyaji,

You have misconstrued my response. The point I wanted to make is that the majority of punters are bound to be losers. I doubt whether you can disagrre with it. 

Consider the following scenario:

Let us, for argument sake, assume that you are the most knowledgeable punter around and you catch winners at 5 to 1 and 6 to 1. But if the majority of the punters, somehow, reach your level of excellence, the odds for the same winner would be odds on.

Since wealth is not created but only excahnged in a racecourse  amd since punters due to their addiction are more willing to part with  their money, it is inevitable that the majority of punters, however knowledgeable they become, are bound to losers.

This is the inexorable logic of markets and cannot be refuted.

All the best to you in the (hopefully) forthcoming race events.

 

chanakya said ...

On : 11-09-2020 03:31 pm

dear Anilxk,

I don't  know  about  Victorin era  though  I've  books  published  in  1941  and  some  books  which  discuss  races  run  in  England  in  1917 and  1919 which  are  beyond  my  comprehension.

I don't  agree  that  RCTC, HRC, BTC etc  follow  different  rules or  routes  or  methods. There  may  be  slight  variations  because  each  center  employs  different  handicapper and  their  assessment may  differ due  to  their  experience and  rating  methods. During  these  inactive  6 months  I've  checked  my  system  for  all  centers except  Delhi ,chennai and  Ooty and  found that if  I've  followed  my system, WITHOUT  ANY  DEVIATION AND  RESERVATION, I would  hve  been  richer MANY times than  what  I've  won during  these  2 1/2 months. Yes  you  are  right  it  would  have  taken  30+ years to  master  all centers  and  it  has  taken more  than  that  for  me  because  I did  not  have nor had  knowledge  of  computer. Today  it  may  take  only  months  or a  year  for  a  computer  savvy person  to  learn  as  much  as  I've  learned  in  40  years!

Forget  about  mood  of  jockey or  runner or  the  intention  of  connections - master  these  5  to  10  parameters  and  these  minor  irritants  will  disappear...

chanakya said ...

On : 11-09-2020 03:07 pm

@ Faizan,

Owner/trainer will does'nt work in racing because 'if wishes  were  horses beggers  would  ride them'. A runner  must  have  the  'capability' to  win 'that' race only  then  he  can win. Class,speed, form, relative  weight, jockey's calibre must  be  equall  or  better than other runners then  only  a  runner  can  win.

I've  given  you  the  complete ingredients  of  creating  a  'good'  handicapping  system.Use them  and  create  one  for yourself.

Abhay singh said ...

On : 11-09-2020 01:53 pm

@chanakya iam not saying that u r not winning .if u r winning that is absolutely fine.iam only saying is you can do handicapping and acess the card based on ur experience and play but it is not possible to develop a formula which works daily and in all centres that is because there is no meter which can judge the mood of the connections whether they are trying the horse or not.as far as moving odds are concerned u just can't ignore them.for example if u select a horse and u are sure it will win but it's odd move from 1.5 to 7/1 for win will u play that horse with the same amount u had planned earlier.odds will always effect ur decision makking.do u bet blindly or u stand in the ring and look at the odds and then take the decision based on ur experience. What I mean to say is u cannot have a fixed handicapping system because other factors will effect ur decisions.

chanakya said ...

On : 11-09-2020 11:24 am

@ RK Khatri,

In my opinion most  of  the  races  are  run  on  merit and  most of the races run  in  the  world  will  have  half  or  more  of  the  field  as  'also ran'. Many of these are run to  keep  them  racing  fit and  or  reduce  their  handicap. Stipes  can  do  nothing  about  it...

@ R Venugopal,

I am unable to  understand  your  points. Could  you  put  them  in  shorter  format...

Einstein,

Ask admin why  I was  absent...

@ Abhay singh,

Yes  I've  developed  a  system, base d  on  the  five  parameters  enumerated in my  ealier  post and  I'm  winning  regularly as  can  be  seen  by  my  wins  during  last  Mumbi & Bangalore  season  truncated  on  12march. I'v  been  winning  regularly since  the  earlier  decade  as  is  shown  on  my  blog  how  I won in  2006/7 by  posting  my  selections  on  TurfParrot(now  defunct). Agreed,  a punter  can  not  win  everyday but  can  be  a  winner  over a  month  or  a  season  or  a  year. That  is  what  is  needed to  remain  in  black.

A seasoned  punter  will  never  be  swayed  by  moving  odds  or  a  khabar floated by  interested  parties - if he does  he  is not  a  seasoned  punter and  is bound  to  lose...

@ punter,

A genuine  horselover goes  to  racecourse  for  entertainment  and  enjoyment. The  moment  he  puts  a tenner  on  a  runner  he  gets  converted  to a  punter  and/or  a  gambler...

 

 

 

Anilxk said ...

On : 11-09-2020 10:33 am

Dear Chanakyaji,

You are one of the most promint member in HT, so your valueble opinion will be accepted by many. In the world of horse racing handicapping system draw at the present form is emerged at victorian era. But it is followed by only one club that is RCTC. Hyderabad is following Southern hemisphere handicapping of USA, BTC following singapore type, and to master at all centres a person should study for more than 30 years, after that he will naturally lose hope and will left broken heart.

In my view (for eg, galwan clash. Chinese attacked Indian soldiers with small arms in a pre planned manner intially killing 20 odd our brave hearts, but Indian soldiers retalliated with a single point of revenge with out arms they created History, because all that Mind set is matters) there is no handicapping system can assess mood of horse or jockey . So what ever the assessment will stop at last 200 mtrs, and then only real capacity of horse and skill of jockey unveils. So allow everybody to make there own assessment as one day it will strike.

Abhay singh said ...

On : 11-09-2020 08:23 am

@faizan as explained by our experienced handicappers that there are 5 to 6 major factors which u have to consider while selecting the winner.that is true.but there is one factor which is the biggest and that is whether the horse you have selected is being tried or not by the connections.this is where most of the handicapping will fail.most of the punters will say after the race ' I played the right horse but it was not tried'.

Odds are the best indicator and races are won on the board and not on the track.if one could read the movement of odds u will get some idea whether the horse is being tried or not . But this requires lots of experience.it can't be taught.one will not be right everytime but the strike rate will improve

krish said ...

On : 11-09-2020 03:37 am

Well said Chanakya... its true

Punter said ...

On : 10-09-2020 11:54 pm

Punter is king by default and racing has to be taken just as lottery or entertainment then we all will have no talks further just think of it. Genuine horse lovers.

Abhay singh said ...

On : 10-09-2020 10:24 pm

It seems mr chanakya has developed some system to regularly be in plus. As far as my understanding of racing goes you can certenly win in races but not by developing any system but by ur handicapping and experience. To develop any kind of system which will work regularly is nest to impossible.there will be days when no handicapping will work like the last day in mumbai when majority of the punters will loose.

Every punter who is experienced has his own way of handicapping and looking at the race card. But there are very few percentage of punters who stick to there selection .majority of punters run behind khabars because most of the time they are not sure of there selection.

How much ever a good handicapper u may be but u will always get confused by the bookie odds and u will leave ur own selection and play some other horse.

chanakya said ...

On : 10-09-2020 10:17 pm

Jagadeesh, vka & Faizan,

Handicapping system  is  a  system or  a  method  to  analyse  the  runners  of  a  race  and  find  out  the  probability of  the success of  each  of  them

A good handicapping  system  is  the one  which  gives  BETTER ROI on equal investment as  compared  to  other systems. A system  which  gives  30% ROI with only  20% wins  is  'better' than  the one  which  gives  20% ROI with 30% or  more win percentage.

Unless a punter has  an access  to  a  good  system he can not  win  big  money. He  can  buy, beg,borrow  or  steal  it - better  still he  can  (create)develope  it  by using available  data  and  information from  the  net.

Long  ago  , perhaps  20  or  25  years ago a writer on  these  forums  has  posted 100 parameters  o  be  considered in  handicapping  a  race. As I've  no  idea  about  his  wellbeing  or  existence I'll refrain  from  commenting  on  his  points.

In my  opinion not  more  than  5  to  10  parameters  are  important  to analyse  a  race  to  catch  the  eventual  winner. In fact only 5  parameters   are  enough  to analyse  and  reach a  reasonable  conclusion. They  are - speed, current  form, class,Consistency and  weight ...   (to  be  continued)

@ Ranjan,

Try to  logically  formalise  your  thoughts  and  points...

@ amar,

What  do  you  mean  by  'elucidate'  AND  THEN  YOU  WILL  REVERT. You  need  not to  revert....

 

Einstein said ...

On : 10-09-2020 07:59 pm

@Chanakya sir

I had given up hope on you coming back to teach us the finer details of racing as promised earlier. I look forward to that and please don't keep keen learners waiting for long.

R Venugopal said ...

On : 10-09-2020 07:06 pm

Hi Friends , I am using a type of betting strategy where I am seeing gain from past 3 yrs but this for whom having a real patience n have better knowledge over pedigree n the way horse running style n speed . I play for fun from centres like Mysore Delhi Kolkota Madras etc etc except Bangalore n Mumbai .. Fun means not more than 100rs per race .. ok now quality Centres like Mumbai n Bangalore have very good horses . I know Indian derby is for 2 mins and some seconds but for that like so many 3 yr old horses will start 8 months before for competition , here u will definitely get good horses .. I mean not predicting War hammer , like there r 3 yr old horses who will be board out in Juvenile or some Gr 3 but those horses r money making horses , go n see the records after that races every horse has won in races like normal class races , it may be class 4 or class 3 . I am be lengthy in explaination please .. so now u can play doubling strategy like u have to note that horse seperately n play win if u lose note down the money , n play same horse like investing lesser amt in win or place so that u will get double money out of that race but u have to wait for 3 weeks to play that horse , believe me this will work see u invest 1100 rs for win as a fav or like 5/1 if it loses don't worry next time u will get for 8/1 , here u can play place or win for lesser amt . So on an average u will get min 50 horses in one season . I can't explain much here . See when November season starts P Shroff will be very active in those 3 yr old horses if u have observed ,it's a testing process for him to get into derby , so his horses previously in 1200mtrs it has lose but when same horse  he will try for 1600mtrs n above ..please play win because that horse is in testing process for derby , I have some 150 horses in mind ,but recent example like Akina speed star win for 200 rs above .. I played confidently for that because I was knowing previous runs may be pathetic but now it's ready so Shroff is testing for longer races . See now Bangalore classics will be there note down all horses competing in classics , after there path will change but they will win in there centres . I have told u only for 3 yr old horses untill they become 4 yr old horses . Trafalgar Agni n some horses were board out in Bangalore early seasons but after that see records how much they have won . So money u can gain with patience n please improvise in knowledge daily about pedigree , penetrometer , Trainer testing process . First 2 yrs u will be losing because of these knowledge about pedigree n all , but after that u will filter out some horses in every race by these knowledge . Friends it's a topic of discussion face to face n not by messaging . I don't know how to explain . Please all Punters don't stick on Jockey name or ur favs , please combine all matters , form n please please don't play all races .  Good luck Punters . 

rajesh kumar khatri said ...

On : 10-09-2020 04:59 pm

first for races to run on meirt ,stiping should be genuine and tough then only the handicapping and merits of the horse can be taken itno consideration.because half the field will be no sayers and non triers.

amar said ...

On : 10-09-2020 02:12 pm

Yes I agree. Somehave system that they get strayed as soon as they enter the course by hearsay. If you have a good system pls elusidate will give a thought and revert 

Faizan said ...

On : 10-09-2020 10:33 am

Hi all, dear @chankya can you tell us what's the good handicappe system to find out the winner .

In my point of view there is no system only gambling is there. If a trainer and owner want his horse to win or place he can come and if he didn't want then merit horse also out from placing.

Thank you.

vka said ...

On : 10-09-2020 10:10 am

Dear Sir,

What do u mean by good handicapping system".

Many Racegoers (including me) are not aware of the strategic points which must be considered during handicapping, kindly give us some knowledge about that also.

I want to request all experts of handicapping on this form through this post that instead of giving the advice to follow some good system, kindly educate us from your knowledge bank, about handicapping.

What fillers must be considered & look after during picking the best horse for wagering?

Ranjan said ...

On : 10-09-2020 05:53 am

Every now and rhen, this topic of the punter losing because of lack of knowledge and/or hard work keeps appearing in HorseTalk.

Please understand that 90% of the punters are always bound to lose.

Just consider the following facts:

1) The Turf clubs cannot lose money indefinitely.

2) If the Owners keep losing, they will just drift away from the racing industry.

3) The Stud Farms cannot lose money indefinitely.

So the only source of revenue for all these enterprises is the losing punter.

Just think.

If the punting community is a net winner, where does the stake money for the races and all the sslaries of so many jockeys, syces, clerks  come from?

So realise that it is only the losing punter who finances the whole industry.

Five percent of the punters might be making money (temporarily and even accidentally). The rest are destined to lose if the industry has to continue to thrive. The whole industry  is actually a negative sum game (economic theory).

So  this exercise to design a better system  is futile.

JAGADEESH said ...

On : 10-09-2020 05:42 am

Hi sir kindly explain the handicapping system to study the race card and pickup the selection .