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Evaluating Favorites... Ways To Lose The Race

By Sudheer | 19-Sep-2021

There are different kinds of conditions in a race that has to suit a horse to win a race.. I think it's pretty important to see whether a horse is a worthy fav or not.. 

I'm an anti favorite gambler.. I seldom back favorites which you can see from my selections too.. today in chennai all horses I picked ran in top 3 but I didn't make any money( made something but nothing to brag about).. 

In my view fair racing is about 80 to 90% and at most 2 out of 10 times mounts will not be tried.. and the non triers wouldn't necessary to be the favorite.. if you watch the races closely you will find many jockeys not trying to improve position to keep the rating down and getting to a handy mark till they try it.. its a practice going on for centuries.. the whole idea of it getting the horse to a winnable rating.. 

If a horse is fav, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's the best horse in the field...

Whenever I see an odds on horse not winning the race I would hear everyone say it was pulled by the connections to get better odds next start. I'm quite fascinated by the art of pulling the horse...

If you are a keen observer of racing you might have an idea of which horses are not worth it at the price or in other words in this forum likely to be pulled..

Trainers prepare the horses to win the races.. but if the race day conditions doesn't suit the style of the running of a particular horse no one will be ready to try to win on it because it can't win and on the top of that it would take lot of time to recover from a high pressure ride.. 

So how will they avoid stewards? Whatever you say there's a system in this country to make sure fair racing.. If the jockeys pull every other horse there would be no jockeys to ride because of the suspensions.. 

So how to know if the horse was not good enough or it wasn't ridden properly? To understand this you have to understand a lot of things first.. Every tipster can say the one I tipped was pulled but dont even know how the jockey pulled it.. most of the jockeys won't use the rein to pull the horse because that would be very obvious. 

First things first as indian race courses have clockwise turns, every horse will be trained to lead on the right leg. And leading on the same leg won't help the horse win a race because after sometime it gets tired and the jockey after entering the straight tries to change the leading leg and find 2 lengths.. so if you dont wanna win on it then simple don't try to change the leading leg, the horse will be tired and eventually loses.. if in the run the horse is 6 lengths in front and didn't change its leading leg and still wins back it the next start too because the penalty in weight will be negated by the fact that it can change legs this start... 

The art of pulling the horse depends on the track bias too.. what is track bias? And how it affects racing? Every race track in the world is not flat as they seem to the naked eye. It's a camber which have slopes on either side of the rail and the middle part is at an higher altitude.. that is to provide better drainage to the track.. so the rail is the lowest point of a race track. When false rails are used and cover some part of the rail then the rail becomes the higher part of the track which dont do any favors for leaders so the track would be biased towards the swoopers.. and if there are no false rails the track aids leaders.. the width of the false rails have a say on the bias of the track.. the bias of the track can only be determined after watching a couple of races on the given day.. when it rains the same story.. the water will get to the rail and makes it tough for leaders making the best part of the track the center part.. observe the horses in the run and note where the mud kicks off from the hooves, that is a bad part of the track and the better going will be the outside.. so the positioning of the horse matters even more. If im a jockey and I don't want my mount to win, I would just run it on the worst part of the track. Good jockeys take advantage of this and pushes the horses to the bad part of the track so that the other horse can't win.. 

Let's say a trainer has a leader and he prepared the horse well to win a race and is started raining during the races.. so he knows that he couldn't win on it even if he tried. So he will ask the jockey not to pressurize the horse... and by the way its not pulling the horse for sure..

Remember the Calcutta meeting few days ago where all the winners came on the outside rail.. the rail is so slow so even the jockey tried to win on a horse from an inside barrier its almost impossible and yet last race Trevor's mount starts at 50p inspite of of drawn inside.. you have to be crazy if you back it knowing that no horse won on the fence.. the winner eventually came to the outside rail and won the race because that's the best part of the track..

The other important aspect of racing is taking cover.. the horse leading would be facing the wind. a good rider will sit behind the leader so that his mount doesn't actually face the wind and in doing so spends less energy than the leader and try to beat it... so if im a jockey don't want to win the race I will go 3 horses wide without cover so that my horse wastes energy and won't finish off the race.. 

So if you dont see any of them and the horse gets perfect run in the transit then don't say it was pulled because it sounds hilarious.. I may have missed a point or two but I think it's better for everyone to understand something before saying the easiest thing.. if you think 10 horses are pulled there would be suitable explanation for 7 horses as to why it didn't win.. only 2 or 3 horses will actually didn't run according to the merit..

If any member feels the horse is pulled, please let the other members know how exactly was it pulled and what the jockey did at the precise moment to pull it... 

Post Your reply

38 Replies

Zeddzzz. said ...

25-Sep-2021

Hi Chase And All Good Afternoon.

You Said Everything On Your Post Dtaed n Time -->> : 23-09-2021 07:23 pm.

On The Whole I Loved Your Post. But The Below Sentence In Your Post Iz Something Extra Ordunary. We Allllllllllll Should Alwayzzzzzzzzzzz Remeber This.

"The moment I think I am an Expert I tend to become a cropper.  Life never fails to show me where I belong. It always teaches me that I know next to nothing."

Many M M Thanks For Writing The Above Sentance In Your Excellant Post. May God Bless You, Your Family And People You Love.

Take Care.

Chanakya said ...

24-Sep-2021

Due  to  information  explosion through Internet it  is  indeed  possible to  'learn' in 4 or  5  years what  others (oldtimers) learned  and  understood  in  4  or  5  decades but the  subtelities of  racing can  not  be  learned in  a  short  period of  few  years...

Many stalwarts have  vanished in the past and it  is  a  fact  that the  complexities  of  racing  have   changed  a game  into a   cut throat competition where everyone  wants to  score a point  over  others...

In Calcutta racing  2  winners  came  from  draw no  2 and  perhaps  one  or  2  came  from draw no 3. Ofcourse, no  one won  from  draw  no  1 but  that  is  no  excuse as  difference from  1 to  2nd. stall  is  not  more  than  4 feet!

To prove  the credentials let  us  evaluate the performance  of  the  knowledge gained  from  the results  of  the  incoming  races  and  their  selections...

Iimblue said ...

24-Sep-2021

@GP, THE DOC, CHASE, KSMROW, 

  You are perfectly right.

The greatest lesson I have drawn from horse racing is that --I should be humble.... very humble.Whenever ego went into my head,  I have been brought down to earth,  the very next moment. This lesson has helped me professionally too. 

Glasgow Prince said ...

23-Sep-2021

Sudheer,

How you express yourself, which words you use is a reflection on you not me. It defines you not me. There is no room for contemptuous expressions if a debate is to remain healthy.

I don't see where I have criticized you. I have merely expressed my opinion which may be different from yours. Like everybody else, you have the option to consider it, debate it or ignore it.

I don't consider myself to be a messiah of the horsetalkers. Neither do I have any interest to promote nor am I out to prove anything. I simply share my thoughts. I don't underestimate the readers here. I know they will evaluate whatever is written here in their own way and come to their own conclusions.

I have not denied that their is a phenomenon called change of legs. The statements I have made are general statements in the context of stopping a front running horse. They are somewhat like the thumb rules regarding 'pace of the race'. I would have clarified further were you to ask in a civilized manner.

In racing nothing is sacrosanct because so many variables come together to create the final picture. For example, there is no method to accurately establish the weightages of the factors which caused a horse to win or lose a particular race. There is a lot of judgment involved. There are differences of opinions between jockeys and trainers, between jockeys, between trainers and stewards or between jockeys and stewards on many occasions, leave alone commentators. It is not a given that because a trainer, jockey or commentator says something it is the last word. I can cite several examples  where there assessments and proclamations have outright gone wrong or have been highly debatable.

Chase said ...

23-Sep-2021

Knowledge Can be intoxicating. It can lead to biased thinking. It can disorient us into  dogma. 

Knowledge is never finite. It is always explorative. And like everything else it can change too in dramatic fashion from one context to another. It can go on and on..Learning is Life Long.

Many of us have been too cocksure and brash when we were younger. This generation is no different. 

Youngsters can afford to be foolish sometimes. They have time and opportunities to learn and correct themselves.

A timely reminder from The Doc. Hope Sudheer takes it right spirit.  

Thanks to Harsh and Sudheer and the like youngsters the narrative in this forum has changed for the better from  mutual increminations , ego clashes etc.

The moment I think I am an Expert I tend to become a cropper.  Life never fails to show me where I belong. It always teaches me that I know next to nothing. 

Let us get on with fruitful discussions. There is always 360 different angles to view a point.

The Doc said ...

23-Sep-2021

@ Achem Kumar 

Yes you are right sir. 

Prasannaa said ...

22-Sep-2021

I think when you work on a race card you need to decide how much time to spend on any aspect.  And I personally believe people spend way too much time identifying if the horse is a false favorite, the bookies psychology,  astrology,  numerology etc etc..since most of us in the forum have good experience in horse racing we have enough expertise to identify what should be the odds for a specific horse/race. When working on race card we can shortlist horses which we believe can win and at the same time mark probable odds for that race. If at race time, for horse u like, odds written by you and given by the bookie are almost the same, just back that horse. I tried this first time in October 2019 and have been using this technique successfully over the past 2 years. For me, this tactic appears to be more logical, practical and successful than any other technique..

Ksmrow said ...

22-Sep-2021

@Sudheer,

Your response to Glasgow prince views is in very bad taste certainly your last word attract condemning by all who value  Decorum of HT.

No body knows everything Let  discussion move in right direction one thing i wants to add just like  a trainer giving  his horse with burnnig tracks ,mock races,Imported feed (shroff:columbian) can't win big Races nothing is substituted With real race gallop. You only have one full  year racing in 2019 and 3 monts in 2020.

 

 

 

Sudheer said ...

22-Sep-2021

@The doc

Actually I don't know how much experienced you all guys are.. I maybbe in nappies and thanks for reminding me and that's why I want you guys to help me out.. and shouldn't deny the actual facts... for 1200m race the horse doesn't need to change legs if it races with an inferior field and for any distance for that matter if it races against inferior company.. horses have 2 types of changing legs depending on the gait and in both of them they won't lose any momentum... I've seen outside horses change their legs to just peg back the leader even in 1000m races.. it doesn't actually depend on the distance but the need.. 

Achem Kumar said ...

22-Sep-2021

  @ The Doc ji 

  Sir, As per my small piece of information, before **Night Odds**, another phenomenon ***Ante Post*** betting used to take place, correct me, please.

   Regards & thanks.

The Doc said ...

22-Sep-2021

@ Sudheer

your reply to Glosgow Prince is in very bad taste. He is in this field since decades and has much more knowledge and experience. Calling his thought process pathetic shows your immaturity and arroance. First understand what he has said. Dont be an ahole so soon. Without any due respect (which you dont command yet), you need to learn a lot. You are still in nappies. He has not said change in lead leg is not necessary, he has said it may not matter upto 1200 mtrs race. It's debatable issue and not black and white. Read Chase's response. Thats the way you reply. 

Sudheer said ...

22-Sep-2021

@Srikanth

Whatever you might think, I'm 32 years old now and 5 years into racing.. 

I would take your post as a compliment.. Thank you..

To understand racing better, watch hongkong races today.. listen to the commentary and replay where they will explain how each horse ran and that will help you too... 

It's very much possible to learn in the time frame I did, for everyone but the hardest part is to apply the acquired knowledge to find the winners.. that requires a great deal of discretion.. 

Actually lying to this forum doesn't give me anything.. so I don't do that.. I don't even use a pseudo name too.. I post with my name.. 

The Doc said ...

22-Sep-2021

It’s an interesting topic. Many have posted their valuable opinions.

Bookies open their first odds in night. The three factors they consider are 

1. Insider informants in the stables

2. Form experts

3. Private handicappers

Based on above feedback bookies rank the field according to the probability of winning of each horse. Then they include other factors like how the public is going to bet based on horse's past performance, trainer, jockey etc. 

Once they set the probability of winning of each each horse they set out to generate the odds after adding something called overround. This is to ensure that no matter which horse wins they end up making some profit. It is a way to balance the book. Only thing they need to look out for is that winner should not be overpriced according to the probability. The odds before adding overround are true odds and the odds after adding overround are published odds. 

To briefly explain overround let’s take a simple example. There is 2 horse race and they are almost equally matched so probability of winning of either of them is 50%. So if you convert the probability into odds it comes to 1-1. IF we do not take taxes into account and if 50 people bet on horse A and 50 people bet on horse B, in the ends bookie wont loose anything or gain anything. But bookies are shrewd so they add overround to the price. How they do it?? They will give odd of 90p to both the horses. Here what happens is the probability of the eaither horse winning goes to 52.6% and combined it becomes around 105%. Ideally the probability of each horse winning should add to 100%. The addition 5% is the overround which is profit of the bookmaker. So once they add the 5% overround the odds becomes 90p each and when any of the horse wins the bookies pay out is 1.9 units against collected 2 units with profit of 0.1 unit. The calculations becomes tedious as the field gets larger. 

The first published odds are speculative and they tend to fluctuate as punters start putting money. So depending on flow of money the odds change later on and more often than not are the most accurate reflection of the probability if each horse winning the race.  The cash flow makes bookies to alter odds as per the new probabilities so as to balance the books. 

It’s a tedious process and need patience and expertise to analyse the odds. 

So now important question is who makes a horse favourite at the race time. It’s true that bookies point towards a horse when they open odds and they have a statistical basis for that. But ultimately it’s the punters who makes a horse favourite at race time. Bookies just adjust their books in the process. 

Coming back to main topic, evaluating favourite is subjective according to individual knowledge, experience. To bet or not to bet on favourite is individual choice which comes out of the evaluation. I believe if the probability matches the odds then betting on favourite could be winning proposition.

Not to bet on a horse just because it is favourite is not wise just like betting on any favourite is unwise.

Chase said ...

22-Sep-2021

Yes G.P. sir, Switching legs results in momentary loss of.momentum , But is compensated by the increase in.stride length and speed if the switch is towards the non favourite lead leg. It depends upon the acceleration , the proportion of  kind of muscle fibres the horse is endowed with ( speed muscle and stamina muscle fibres that comes with the genes ), the riders stance and the temperament of the horse.. we can see in.many instances when in the final stages , a horse losses momentum for a fraction of a second and surges ahead .

Because of the clarity of the videos and slow motion recasts , I had observed many times on Dubai Festival Races this switching lead legs.

Our racing videos don't offer that much clarity except the TCG videos that give the glimpses of the finishing efforts very briefly.

Srikant said ...

22-Sep-2021

@Sudheer

After going thru your article and your second post that you really started betting in 2019.Also that you studied this field for one year WELL..SIR please don't take otherwise.My guess is you are in this field much much longer.What you have mentioned ,as per my judgement is not fully the fact.

You may hv read books ,etc but even experts of 30 to 40 years in this forum don't think or act like your thoughts,so my friend it's also in correct your statement thst you are just a 5 yr old here.

No amount of video Watch or books or surfing can give this insight what you claim.

Please come out with real facts ,that would be appreciated.

Sudheer said ...

22-Sep-2021

@ Glasgow Prince

With all due respect, your thoughts about the change of lead leg are pathetic to say the least.. change of legs slows down the horse? That's a first.. when it comes to technicalities, I post things those are only well observed and well documented by the professionals around the world.. its fine if you don't know something but saying the phenomenon doesn't exist or not required will not be helpful for any of the member who wishes to learn something through this forum.. just Google on change of legs in racing and you will get 100s of examples with videos if you have the patience.. post something only if you know fully well.. I really welcome criticism but if you can't see horses changing legs doesn't mean everyone can't see too.. 

You really have a right to disagree to the post, but not where 2+2=4.. you need not agree to my post at all also but when it comes to technicalities and key aspects atleast try to google it before posting nonsense.. 

Glasgow Prince said ...

21-Sep-2021

Talking of leading leg, changing the leading leg is akin to changing the gear of a car. It momentarily slows down the horse and precious strides are consumed in the process. Changing the leading leg therefore is beneficial in races above 1200 meters and that too for finishers. When the jockey wants to launch his final assault he resorts to this action. A front running horse can only hope to win by controlling the pace or by being given a breather. In races upto 1200 meters change of leading leg is neither necessary nor effective. So, how to stop a front running horse? A top ex-jockey with powerful patronage had perfected this art. 

Harsh,

Thanks for your response. I have a completely different perspective on odds, their subjectivity and utility. Consider this. How do the bookies offer ante post odds even before the selections of the tipsters are out? Just food for thought. :-)

Aks said ...

21-Sep-2021

Hi Sudheer, 

Wonderful write up, despite the fact that old timers like me are generally familiar with the trade, it surely makes good reading for the new comers. Perhaps what's all the more commendable is the in-depth analysis, which does make interesting reading. Some times you get wise only after the event, when the race tactics are apparent, & obviously too late to Undo your selection. All in all a Good study.  Congratulations once again for putting your thoughts on paper.

Sudheer said ...

21-Sep-2021

Hi all,

Thanks for your views on the topic.. I sincerely request to quote examples of races in the last 5 years because I have no idea if you talk about a race pre 2016 or 2017.. if you can quote a horse or a race which took place recently I would be able to add my opinion to it.. 

@ Vinay

Yes, pedigree plays a part in racing.. but I do consider pedigree only for younger horses and when racing at unproven distances.. the best example I can quote is war hammer.. None of its full siblings or half siblings won over 1400m but war hammer won the derby.. lady in lace is primarily a middle distance horse won pune derby and ran 2nd in the Indian derby.. so follow pedigree till some extent for results.. Barring some exceptions, you are are right that it plays a huge part in picking winners.. good point..

@IIM Blue

I rarely take connections into account while betting, and you are right that if you take connections into account it clouds our judgment.. when I'm backing a horse my only concern will be will my horse will get the perfect run of the race or not and is the odds providing by book makers are of value or not.. for some horses 50p is value on a given day and for some 50p horses even 5/1 is not value.. depends on our perspective of a certain race.. on the top of it I will have a look at the horse in the paddock it's condition, size, walk and ears and if I feel it's ready then only I would invest something on it.. and please quote references which are new.. thanks for the response and your valued views..

@ GC Raj

I suggest you to frame your own method in finding winners.. I followed tips for an year and eventually I lost.. Results only came in my way after I started to put in the hard work.. I may tip a horse as my days best in my selections on the previous day and I might not even touch it on the race day because of the conditions.. so the problem with following tips is discretion... Discretion has paramount importance in racing... Good luck...

@ Glasgow Prince

Thanks for your views and at first even I thought track bias as bullshit at first, after observing many races many meetings now I came to a conclusion that the 2.5% will make a difference in the outcome of a race.. its a subjective discussion but as far as I know that would affect the outcome of the race and the observations are subtle so I can't explain you the details of it... I hope you would bring more disagreements to my posts for a healthy discussion in less subtle matters.. thank you..

@Champ

I think in this internet age 5 years is a lot of time to learn about something.. I spent hours and weeks in reading and watching replays etc etc... First of all I was a cricket punter before 2016.. I only stepped into a offcourse tote because of demonetization and someone told me I can exchange old notes and get new notes for some commission.. and being a gambler I was drawn to the fact that the fav would be 2/1 in most of the races.. I thought its fantastic and backed favorites on a daily basis for 6 months and lost heaps.. then I realized this has lot more depth on what people tell me in the tote and stopped betting for a while and started to pick horses.. I've done picking for one and half year without betting a penny on the horse.. everyday I went to the tote with my picks and see how the races were run and try to analyze why the winner has won.. I read 100s of articles on racing and watched hours and hours of videos and then decided to bet on horses from 01.01.2019 again.. so my punting career is just 2 and half years old and I still remember backing Adjudicate for 100rs win 100rs shp in the invitation.. the thrill of picking a winner and the thrill of being right was too good and I grew fond of this sport and I never do it for fun.. I just want to be a professional horse racing punter and with some luck sometimes I'm doing pretty well so far.. I may not be as experienced as most of you but I did put in lot of hardwork in knowing the sport.. Finally, my winnings in recent times gave me confidence to post in this elite group.. If I can help someone like me I would be very happy.. Because I faced lot of difficulty in learning everything on my own.

Chase said ...

21-Sep-2021

@Sudheer: Despite the Negative connotations in the title ( understandable for an Anti Favourite Punter) , your post will definitely help many a punter to understand this Puzzle called ' Horse Racing'.

 I really liked your comment " If a horse is favourite that does not.mean that it is the best horse in the field" Rightly said. 

It is well known that the Best Horse may not win always. That is the story  of life as well. 

Winning and losing are context specific. There can be  many a slip between  the cup and the lip.

It need not be a.mischief by the trainer or the Jockey or even the farrier though that can happen occassionally in this high stakes game.

ITR has recounted the words of Old Trainer Scot.  How true!

Your Lead Leg info caught.my attention.

While for an ordinary punter the lead leg, switching the leg , the science of horse locomotion would be like Greek and Latin, for most trainers and good jockeys it is part of their training knowledge and skill.

Horses in the wild run free and decide to switch the lead leg on their own as per the necessity they deem fit. But in a racing horse , the trainer must educate his horse , when to lead by the right leg and when to switch it . Practice makes it perfect. Gate Practice and Track Trials are not just trials , it is to hone their practice.

Most horses have a favourite lead leg , just as we are right handed or left handed. 

When ever a horse fly jumps or veers out of the starting gate to land on the wide outside sand , it  indicates poor training . In experienced jockeys also.may inadvertently cue the horse to lead by the wrong leg.

As rightly said by you our tracks are clock wise and our race horses are trained to switch to right lead when approaching curve. Once on the straight when they.need to be fast they may switch it to the other lead. The non favourite lead leg switch is generally the one that gives the stride a longer stretch  and the finishing burst.  It can not last long ofcourse , and a good rider knows when to give the cue to switch the lead leg. 

Most times we see a horse going wide on rounding the final.bend.  That is mostly when the horse was not enabled to switch it to the right lead before cruising to the bend. 

In the straight also when the rider puts the pressure to switch the leg for a final.spurt, in experienced horses will veer out . The good rider always gathers the horse and puts it straight.

A punter must.know the running style of horses , their behaviour at the starting gates , their habits of going wide, the relative skills of jockeys etc.

I.am.just waiting to see the performance of Coolrider , once it's winning hockey Srinath rejoins him in the Bangalore races, even though it improved it's gate manners on applying the tongue strap , definitely Sandesh is not to blame for its lacklustre performance in the Nilgiris Derby. It was not Tried. So also to I.Blue. it was up with the leaders and was ridden in at the end. Both needed to be watched in their next runs.

Thanks for many valuable in puts from ITR, JP, GP, IIM Blue, Harsh, Golden Viper and Others.

A Very Good Discussion. Just What is Needed.

Faizan Patel said ...

21-Sep-2021

Hi all

@lIMBLUE 

iam totally agree with you that a trainer never give an instruction to the jokey to pulled a horse,Because in Hyderabad a jokey iam not tell his name here he's my friends iam asking all thing related question about horse racing and iam also asking that too theory too and also iam ask that then why favourite horse lose he simply ask me who make the horse favourite iam telling him Booki then he said how iam telling him based on their past performance, he yes says and also the punter bet on that horse so Booki made him favourite but it don't meat that he is a the only good horse on that filed , Other horses are also there to win the race. 

And He last Says Ager esa hota tho phir tho koi bhi favourite Horse nhi win hota. Paise kamane ke liye sab tariner aur owner ek ho jate aur ek hi horse pr bet krte phir racing ka matlab hi kya hota aur Government of indai isko Ben kr deti.

Thanks 

Harsh said ...

21-Sep-2021

@Glassgow Prince 

As far as I know basic odds are prepared based on selections of top tipsters. Another method is based on chances of Winning % of horse. Odds get affected by many factors like Ante Post betting, specific "inputs" bookies recieve. Odds we see at race time are adjusted odds. This is when Merit odds helps us to find Jobbers and Non Triers.This is one of the many ways to evaluate Favourite.

If Race Time Odds are double of Merit odds then be assured that horse is surely a non trier. Similarly sometimes Odds are lot below Merit odds and Odds keep on increasing but if you notice that it is still below Merit odds then that Horse is surely a Jobber against common perception. If more than 2 horses are showing positive trend then we have to ignore this method for that race.

Few years back one entire season I adopted this method. Patience pays well but since it requires compulsory presence in Bookies Ring had to discontinue. Strived for other methods and finally found bliss (Mentally and financially) in current Ratings method :-)

@GC Raj 

With due respect to all Tipsters let me state that in India's Top 10 Tipsters List  Sharat Sharma(Track Eagle) stands from 1st to 10th, rest all come after it. His military discpline, knowledge and understanding of this sport is something we should strive to emulate.

Indian_turf_record said ...

21-Sep-2021

@ IIMBLUE

     Your sentence "Not every win is bet by the connections nor every loser is pulled" is gem. The "pulled" fixation is what causes most punters grief.

     There is one old tale of Calcutta trainer J.D. Scott. He was called by Stewards and warned after his favourite had lost. Stewards told him what they thought he had done to prevent horse from winning. 

    Trainer was very angry but he controlled himself. He waited outside till meeting was over and he spoke to Senior Steward. He is supposed to have told Senior Steward, "Sir, there are hundred ways to make a horse lose and Stewards don't know half of them. You have warned me and  I accept that. But what you think I had done to stop the horse is nonsense. If I really want to stop a horse, you won't even come to know of it."

     This story I have heard and don't vouch for it. It happened more than 100 years ago and I accept that times have changed. Maybe today's Stewards and trainers are not as proficient as they were in Scott's time.

Champ said ...

21-Sep-2021

Sudheer, your observations are good & quite profound. You mentioned somewhere that you're punting for 5 years. Such profoundness with 5 years experience in racing is hard to believe, because most people are introduced to racecourse by some fellow punter. Initially they follow the peerson who introduced them or follow 2-3 jockey names. To understand how the system works only takes 2-3 years as initially no one is a regular punter, its gradually that they get hooked line & sinker & there begins their sink. Amidst some years of the sinking process, a few wise men learn a trick of the trade or two, which help him stay afloat & balance his loan books and in some even fewer cases, recoup his losses. All these take years of toll on a person's finance, health, family , professional life, loss of friends etc. Such a cycle is almost inevitable, any punter who has been in the field for long enough knows invariably. And it doesn't happen in 5 years, that's a 100 to 1.

Glasgow Prince said ...

21-Sep-2021

Harsh,

I have some queries about your post just for the sake of clarity.

The first para says that a false favourite can be determined by comparing bookie odds with merit odds implying that bookie odds are different from merit odds.

The second para given the details of the method to generate merit odds.

So far so good. However, the next para says that the bookies may have increased the tipsters count from 8 to 12 suggesting that the method given in the previous para is used by bookies to generate bookie odds. 

Finally, do you personally believe that bookies decide their odds on the basis of the tipsters' selections?

Glasgow Prince said ...

21-Sep-2021

First of all, kudos to Sudheer for taking up some novel topics. 

In my considered opinion, track camber provides virtually no leverage for stopping a horse. The standard camber is just about 2.5% except at the bends and can hardly aid in stopping a horse. Also the drainage comes into play only when it rains, so how does one stop a horse when the weather is dry? 

To me it does not sound logical that a track would be designed in such a way that the water will collect near the rails. There is a drainage system which is designed to drain the water off the track. Horses like to race with the support of the rails which helps them to keep going on a straight course. That is the reason we see that the field always takes to the rails as soon as it is dispatched. As a result, the track near the inner rails is always dug up due to the continuous pounding it receives race after race and race day after race day. On a rainy day, the portion near the inner rails gets very soggy as it continues to get punished. 

In any given race, the stewards have their eyes mainly on the market fancies. If a jockey riding a market fancy pushes his horse onto the bad part of the track, rest assured he is going to be questioned. When the going is good, sometimes even the also-rans are cautioned for 'travelling wide for no apparent reason'.

Some of the top jockeys have their own subtle (almost patented) methods of making the difference between winning and losing. Some methods are relatively obvious but the jockeys get off lightly as they have powerful backing.

Gc Raj said ...

20-Sep-2021

Dear Harsha sir.      

I am following your ratings now a days regularly.. Previously I used to follow so many tipsters.news papers choice..books choice..then getting confused..now I regularly follow only TRACK EAGLE .

Particularly after the COVID-19 lockdown..fairness in horse racing is reduced to 50% only..so we have to be very careful in betting now.

Jp said ...

20-Sep-2021

MY REPLIES PART II

Racing was earlier going on with owners, club members and officials belonging to elite group. Elite not necessarily rich in money but rich in knowledge, ethics,work culture dedication to the profession especially the officials of the turf clubs. Now we see unscrupulous persons becoming owners and move into club membership. Owners/trainers/bookies having benami owners. Owners having more than one trainer in the same centre and running in the same races. Owners having part ownership in several horses with several trainers in the same centre and running in the same races together. I am not saying they should not have ownership this way. This increases the vulnerability of fixing races and increases the number of non triers in a race. A trainer was removed from Bangalore since he couldn't produce or identify the owners of horses under him.

Betting on horses in those days was restricted to the race club but few bucket shops or persons accepting bets. These bucket shops accepted limited very small bets  The owners of most of the horses used to come and bet in the ring only. Most of the owners used to bet on their horses in a race clearly indicating most of the horses in that race is being tried. Is that happening now ?

Betting had increased in crores now that too in the illegal betting. Owners/trainers/,jockeys and punters connected with them do bets here. So there develops a link and ultimately the fixing starts..It is the betting link that were responsible for cricket match fixing. They wanted some information and wanted some one in the team to underperform or as instructed by them. Same thing is happening in racing. They don't fix who should win but easy to fix which horse to lose or not to perform.  This is how some of the favourites bite dust or differently perform.

Now racing has people owning/training/riding and officials with more suspect in their intentions and very little people with ethics. It has become like you can't seperate water from milk. It is not water but poison in racing. I can give one point for all to ponder and anwer. One top jockey from the last ended Mumbai season has restricted accepting mounts restricted to one or two mounts only.

Vinay said ...

20-Sep-2021

@ Sudheer good article I would also like to add that pedigree of horse also matters as is the case of cool rider it could not have sustained extra 200 meters as it's jump is upto 1400 so such horses wins at season end or in class above with longer or good odds not on money. Some trainers try them in next season or other venues whereas some horses goes on loosing . dumping punters so it's better to never follow a single horse and plus or minus of a day is your final profit or loss if you play to recover than only God can save you. So it's better to play only that amount which even after loosing you can have healthy sleep.

Happy Racing....

Iimblue said ...

20-Sep-2021

I don't believe in this 'pulling the horse' theory. A punter is his own enemy. Firstly,  he blindly plays the favourite because he thinks,  it is Safest course to take. When it loses,  he has to console and defend  himself , so he takes shelter under the "connections pulled the horse " theory. To my mind,  race course is the only place where "merit" holds pride of place. Even if we are unable to identify merit before the race,  at least we should be able to analyse without bias, why I made wrong selection!  At least,  it may prove helpful in future. 

MAM's colt was favourite in Bangalore Colts Trial (S.Naredu up) and the race was won by  his own Star Supreme (M. Naredu up) at 7/1.The race course  went GA GA over how the favourite was pulled. Star Supreme went on to win not only Bangalore Summer Derby but also Indian Derby. 

The trainer has a dozen ways to lose a race. There is no need to pull the horse. A under prepared horse never wins. Horses rarely win over unsuitable distances. Horses donot win in wrong age groups. In addition a trainer openly indicates the non serious candidature of the horse by getting an non descipt jockey. In any field more than half have no chance but that does not mean that they are being pulled. The trainer does not ask the jockey to pull. He simply knows that his horse has no chance, so lets the jockey do his best. Not every win is bet by the connection nor every loser is pulled. 

That is the reason,  why we should not play every race. If the selection of the race to bet is judicious our chances of finding the winner will increase that much more. This "on the job " , " not on the job " discussion will cloud our mind,  from real issues.

Sudheer said ...

20-Sep-2021

@Bharath

Can planetary position make horses win/lose a race? 

First things first, I don't know if it influences racing or not..

I have my own factors to consider in finding a winner.. I guess I have my plate full already with all the technicalities so I wont go to a completely different perspective and confuse myself..

If you believe in it, you can workout numerology to pick the winner considering horse name horse number barrier number jockey name trainer name etc etc and arrive at the winner 

In racing there's no prescribed method to find the winners... as long as your method works any method is fine.. 

If you are that good in astrology to find the winners in a race I'm pretty sure you can predict whether the day will be a winning day or losing day to you.. so you can close your eyes and pick numbers on your day... may be the simpler way I guess..

And 'you' actually refers to the person who believes that he can find out winners through astrology/numerology.. 

Harsh said ...

20-Sep-2021

One method of determining whether a favorite is false one is by comparing the Bookie odds with Merit Odds. This method was published in this forum by Rajgopal Nair who also ran a blog by name Destiny Calling. Unfortunately I haven't heard from him or about him for a really long time.

Conventional Odds Generating Method is to select 8 top tipsters {Newspaper, Books, Websites} and allot 3 points to their first choice, 2 points to second choice and 1 point to third choice. Maximum Points a horse can get is 24. Based on points accumulated by a Horse it's odds can be determined from this table
24 0.8
23 0.9
22 1
21 1.1
20 1.2
19 1.3
18 1.4
17 1.5
16 1.75
15 2
14 2.25
13 2.5
12 2.75
11 3
10 3.5
9 4
8 4.5
7 5
6 6
5 7
4 8
3 8
2 9
1 10
0 15

For Every Days Best deduct 10p
Example: If a Horse is first selection of all 8 tipsters and 3 of them have marked it as days best then Merit Odds would be: 0.8-0.3=0.5, Compare Merit Odds with Race time odds and most of the time you will be able to identify Jobbers and Non Jobbers

This system was good till internet Handicappers have started influencing the outcomes. Bookies might have increased the tipsters count from 8 to 12 to accommodate few exceptionally good tipsters like Sharat Sharma. If that is the case then highest point would be 36 for any horse and Odds table would be adjusted accordingly. Difference of 10p for every point may be extended till 24 followed by difference of 25p for every point till 16.

Devil lies in details. Which 8 or 12 tipsters need to be considered!!!
I consider The Hindu, TOI, O Vel, Bol, IRC, Racing Pulse, Track Eagle & Telegraph.
One can use his own wisdom to select best tipsters and prepare their own Odds!!

Have a Nice day

Prinit said ...

20-Sep-2021

Very well said Sudheer. I agree with all your points. One clear example is Firepower. Its second last run and then its run in the guineas is a good example of your theory. It takes time and a shrewd eye to make all the observations mentioned by you and then to arrive at the right conclusion.  But thats the right way to go.

Againstodds said ...

20-Sep-2021

Definitely a good analysis sir. One may differ here and there, but that is what racing is. 

Bharath said ...

20-Sep-2021

Can a horse lose if planetary position is not favourable. 

Can a Favorite with unlucky number Win.

Just asking since a few experts have stated that Stars & Numbers decide outcome. Not merit of HORSE which does the hard task of running on the tracks.

Jp said ...

20-Sep-2021

What you say is correct. But gone are the days when 2 horses in a field is not tried. Nowadays, only handful of horses(5) are tried and the rest keep running. If you notice there are horses in Class B from day they got into that class and remain there for years and till  retirement. Maximum number of horses in every centre is in this class. If it wins in top weight in that class or promoted they run a couple of times and bring back to the same class. Regarding favourites,it is not decided by the owners in most cases barring few select trainers/owners.

As you said favourite is not the best horse in the race but made to look so by the bookies due to various factors from track,previous run and competition in the field. Most important fact the punters fail to take note and difficult also is the intention of the connections. Every race the horse enters cannot be won. Like the favouritism is made to a horse in a field on various factors,the connections have also the option to decide when to try their horse which need not necessarily be when it is favourite or otherwise. Yesterday, if you notice that in Nilgiris Derby the sponser had a horse in the race but the horse was not tried at all though it had good credentials and also tipped and fancied by many. The indication was the owner was not there in the paddock parade which was an indication. Last time when Alicia ran in Hyderabad,the trainer Pesi was not there and Deshmukh was deputising and yesterday he was there in Chennai for the Derby..Like this there are many indicators.

Present day if you notice horses with no track or any previous form becoming favourites  and tons of money pouring in during race time. Most of the time they win.

The win of Well Connected and loss of Impavid in Bangalore was due to rain and underfoot conditions and the way they had to run decided the outcome. Impavid made start to finish and had no other go to run on the rails and Well Connected coming from behind made the middle track last part dash on the firmer side of the track. 
Nowadays pulling is not decided by the connections. The jockey either makes a slow start or position the horse at the back of the field and start making the move quite late. Classic example would be Adjudicate in the Indian Derby. Adjudicate won the Invitation twice.

Saddle slip due to improper saddling. Sometimes it can be a mistake but it can be deliberate also since the trainer gets nominal fine. Saddle slip has costed the race all the time with few exceptions from talented jockeys. Improper shoeing. Late MAM lost his home invitation due to this when the bookies mafia fixed with his farrier for some 50k.

Horses lose due to trainer's mischief since he can very easily fool the owners due to their lack of knowledge. Very few owners have the understanding about horses and racing. 
Gone are the days when there were owners who were interested in the silverware winning and so the field had maximum horses being tried to win. Nowadays,the interest is focused on the amount of betting money to be made win or lose is the MOTTO.

If you were racing in 70s probably you would have never thought of this script.

Golden Viper said ...

20-Sep-2021

Well written  piece.  My  bit

Last  run    very  important.  Take  cool  riders case the  video showed  horse whipped  in  the last  50 mtrs .So  it  was  fully  tried not  what  some  thought  as  pulled.

Track  work .   .Alicia given  1600 mtrs last  monday where as Cool  rider  Chasini  I  blue  no  workout  given 

Body  wt  of  horse more  than  15  kgs is  negative Since ooty  does  not  this  facility last  run  horses  there could not be compared  in  chennai..

Money  coming is  a psitive  sign as  seen  in  chennai

Last  no  one  can  predict   the intentions  and one  has  to  live  with it

Pg said ...

20-Sep-2021

@ Sudheer,  you are totally wrong to say that 80 to 90 % racing are fair.

Today, clubs are facing a lot of problems, and one or two are about to close. Mostly because punters are fooled too much by the crooked connections, especially with top riders riding their mounts.

Actually, not more than 40 % of races are run on merit. Another about 10% of races are lost due to incompetence of jockeys. Balance, 50% of races are what is called " MATCH  FIXING " or MADE-UP or PULLED-UP races.

This is happening with top trainers and jockeys. Do agree that on few days, many of the races are run on merit, especially big days.