Mr Malicious Grudge & Mr Anil Xk

I am remembering that Longstride was trained by CA Kuttappa and owned by Mr DA Nanda first and then Aziz Jaffer. I am also thinking he did nto win any long distance race. Can you tell me which long distance race he win.

 @ Anil Xk Sir, 

 Happy to see your logic n nice ratio relationship with strides or xiant strides, with limitation, if connections are intentially ready to go with co-operation of "Equines" equally. 

    Sighted example of Tecorno, itself telling/ revealing the story. **Tactful Dallas Todywalla** is very good in dealing n preparing the very good class/ foals of Sprinters in India, right from his first Classic Win by Bergamo in Calcutta n till today. His #Sprinters Research & Development# may have roots under able assistantship of Great Rashed R.Byramji. 

  Regards n thanks.

Buddy,

At the outset, let me first state that I am not a spokesperson of Sudheer.  So, this post should not be misconstrued as endorsing or defending his theory.  I do not bet after counting the strides.  This I have made clear in my post addressed to Sudheer.

Sudheer has stated that he was not able to find the winner among the six horses by conventional methods and he thought upon an idea and was able to locate Ashoka.  He had some eachway bets on that horse and gained modest amount.  He is sharing his study & approach with horsetalk members.  You can either take it or leave it.  But, damning his theory as "absurd" is something you could have and must have avoided.

First thing.  You are a loser.  You lost the entire cash balance.  So, whatever you say will have very few or zero listeners.  There are punters who bet after seeing the color of the hat (helmet) of the jockey.  There are punters who bet after seeing the color of shirt or trousers of the jockey.  Counting the strides of the horse may be a complicated approach.  Sudheer will continue or stop such approach depending on the results in his subsequent bets.

******

"One can learn what not to do by watching Raghu".  Agreed.  I do not pretend to be master punter and if anyone avoids doing what I do, then he is on the right path.  

Your friend Chanakya once advertised that he runs a tutorial class for punters and to enrol one must cough up Rs. 20k a day plus charges towards his accommodation, drinks etc.  I do not put such advts.

But, my non stop advise to the punters "bet low & preferably bet at tote" must have helped a very small section of punters.  

******

It would have been better if you had advised horsetalk members not to do the same mistake that you did.   (Instead of asking them not to do what I have been doing).  You were betting lakhs & millions with multiple bookies and bookies mercilessly swallowed your entire cash balance and compelled you to take retirement from betting.  Had you listened to me, you would have been betting low and in limited number of races, and you would have still commanding a very huge cash balance.  There would have been no necessity to pretend yourself a philosopher.  All your philosophical talks remind me of so many duplicate (fraud) swamijis in our midst.

Dear SUDHEER 

 Good keen observations. But 

 1) LEAD CHANGES ... Term used in technical .. almost same like your number of strides and stride lengths. 

 Lead changes mean a horse suddenly ( a fraction milli second ) changes its running leg from one to another.. it's most important factor to select a good bet. You can't see while running at real soeed but in slow motion you can see them at around 400mtrs to winning post  at any phase. All the international tipsters first priority is this LEAD CHANGE' horses. 

2) SECTIONALS. ... This is another important factor to select a horse.  This is available or mentioned by all most all commentators in USA ..some of UK commentators too. With this parameter you can find Horse pace . Speed especially last 2 furlongs. 

 There are more theories applied by present TOP tipsters. 

 Finally horse racing and tipping theories are never ending process. 

 All the best 

There are many angles to study a horse out of that probably the best is past company vs current ...counting strides is absurd to me- not feaseble - same animal running in tough company will be gasping for breath because of faster innitial pace and will have slower strides in the last part compared to running in a weaker set - raghu the toteman probably can enlighten you a bit more - one can learn watching him -what not to do , he is a master in that.

Buddy,

I thought that you are a super punter, having credit line with multiple bookies.  I thought that you were betting lakhs & millions everyday and taking home profits several crores every Monday.  I thought that you are a darling of the bookies and was assisting them with worthy advises. I thought that your net worth is several times higher than the net worth of Ambani & Adani put together.

Your latest tweet that you have lost entire cash balance 100s of times has really shattered me like an explosive time bomb.  So, after all you are a punter, an ordinary punter at that and you have lost the entire cash balance 100s of times.  That is the fate of 98% of punters.  Those who bet at tote will somehow extricate themselves with minimal loss.  Whereas those who are having a deep love with bookies and do business with them only will lose everything they own; including loincloth.

So, stop ridiculing the few tote punters who are relatively better in intellect compared to those who bet with bookies.  I bet only at tote.  Of course, the bookies offer 20% to 40% higher dividend than what tote gives, but one does not require to rob Reserve Bank of India to bet at tote.  We will bet several hundreds daily, accept the loss most of the times and sometimes collect the small dividend, the strike rate being less than 15%.  Of course, you are fully at liberty to bet millions & billions with the bookies.  No tote punter will ever object to your punting with bookies.

IN RACE BETTING, THE ONLY WINNERS ARE BOOKIES.  This is the thumb rule right from the day betting started on horses and will remain so till Sun, Moon & Stars exist.

Dear friends,

It is no secret the long-striding horses are cut out for longer trips.The ones that have quick strides are suited for the shorter trips.
The above facts are known to all at the course.

There was no need for such a elaborate write-up on that. I fail to understand why Sudheer tries to make it sound so technical about it.

Dear Sudheer,

Nice write up...

The stride length is directly depends upon preparedness of horse. If it is not prepared for particular race never extend strides at best. I will point one example 

Many fellow punters remember Stallion Tecorno and it's sprinting progenies but Tactful trainer Todywalla prepared a horse and changed its name to Longstridrs. It participated in long distance races where most of the Tecorno clan proved to be good sprinters. Trainer systematically prepared that sprint type horse by reducing intial speed and increases its closing speed. Those with academic interest can refer old videos of that runner. 

Another fact which impacts on finishing speed is weight of horse not weight carried. A good horse can carry upto 78 kg with same speed carries 50 kg if it was trained with weight. Most of the trainers increases and decreases horse weight which is the most deciding factor of race. Many not declare weight also to confuse punters. 

Another fine horse in  Indian racing Star Supreme is the horse with longest strides Bangalore ever witnessed as per my knowledge. That horse is a seven race maiden from R Foley yard at Madras and send for Bangalore summer, he was prepared by JH Foley and MR Singh by giving track work with grade one horses with 5/7 length back. The problem with that great runner is nothing but he starts striding from beginning and with a rhythm. They booked Aslam Khader to ride instead of Narredus and he done superbly on saddle, holding him back on tight reins and loose him in last 100 meters , where he is around 7 length from the front running bunch, won by a length at wire giving 8-1 at bookies and 56 at tote. He weighed 43 kg less than his Madras weight. 

So preparedness 

Speed at various situations

Horse readiness to gallop at straight ( ready to say) and timing of jockey also critical to better the finish position. 

Buddy,

When I say all are losers, I mean that.  I stand by that statement.  

But, unknown to me there may be some winners.  For eg the man who won 48 lakhs jackpot.  There are many punters who win big exacta pools (more than 2 lakhs) or big jackpot pools.   You may find half a dozen winners among horsetalk members itself.  But, I will not do the mistake of generalising such stray winners.

To me all punters are losers.  The "all' in my statement includes Brahma, Vishnu & Shankara.  Our bookies are smart enough to make even Goddess Lakshmi, & Yaksh Kubera bankrupt.  

I am not impressed by your claims of big big wins.  You claim to bet lakhs & millions every day and take home profit an amount double or treble of your investment.  Presuming that your winning spree has lasted 3 decades, you tell me where all that money has gone.  I will agree that you are a winner and I was wrong in slamming your profit claims..

There was another horsetalk member, your friend, Chanakya.  Even he amused many horsetalk members with claims of millions win every second day.  One day he claimed place dividend on Malavika when the horse finished 3rd in a six horse field. AND,you have given a sworn affidavit that you lost all your cash balance.

So, I put questions to you two only.  Because you two are making bogus claims on a continuous basis.  If any other horsetalk member makes such silly claims, I will question them also.  

Horsetalk members generally maintain decency & decorum while interacting in this site.   And it is a pleasure to see their inputs. They do not bombard this site with their meaningless bundlebaaz.

Keep singing the same song 'lost cash balance' that has happened more then 100 times over a period of 40 yrs of punting ..but that cash was not my family money or any other job or business ...was from my winning in race betting toteman.

what you think about beauty blaze ?

did she wil hyderabad filles ?>

Each race is a unique exercise in relativity. No two races are the same. Even the same race if run again, can produce a different result. Such is the complexity in racing. Strong conceptual thinking, an aptitude for racing and a research oriented bent of mind are the qualities with which a punter can hope to be successful in the long run. Chase has very aptly articulated the role of a punter as distinct from that of a trainer or a jockey.

Such tutorials which are honestly old wine in new bottle, with flawed application will only serve to raise false hopes in beginners as well as some old timers. Every time a punter gets introduced to a new method, he feels excited because he thinks he is one step closer to the ultimate goal.........till it falls flat in the next race or the next day or the day after. This will go on and on till he realises it's a mirage. The process is undoubtedly exhilarating and even intoxicating but can be financially disastrous for the punter unless he is alive to the depth of his pocket. He is likely to get carried away with his seemingly new found 'open sesame' every time he discovers a new mehtod which will take him to the cleaners before he knows it. A punter can't afford to get carried away with experiments just because it is something he hasn't heard of before. The method he deveops has to be manageable and yet dependable if he hopes to makes a success of it.

Buddy,

Sudheer has spoken about one racing theory.  He has applied that theory & had a bet on Ashoka,  and gained modest amount.

If some person has played mischief with the horse minutes before race, his theory does not work.  It is quite obvious. Sudheer's theory will work out fine in ideal test conditions.  Not in cases where some person has acted criminally & have used unfair methods to ensure that the horse does not run as per expectations.

Why are you bringing some kind of negativity in your narration.  If you feel that Sudheer has floated some kind of meaningless theory, then present your view point logically.  Do not ask him whether his theory works if somebody mischievously shoots the horse in the leg minutes before the race.

The world listens only to the winners.  The losers may scream..but others will not be impressed.  Betting lakhs & millions, you have lost entire cash balance.  The bookies administered sledge hammer blow to your entire cash balance.  They must have been profited several crores because of your high end betting.  And, we do not have time or patience to hear from such big losers.

It is not my contention that any kind of theory mooted by any horse talk members should be boisterously welcomed by all horsetalk members.  Dissent note is most welcome.  But, such dissent note should be meaningful, logical.

Sudheer sir,

I understand now. Thank you

Mr. Chase,

Well put, sir. Highly commendable and alsoo recommendable.
You seem a punter with vast racing experience under your belt.

Mr. Chase,

     Congratulations. Excellent & logocal. Our problem is even with good car, good driver, GPS, Google, etc. we cannot estimate how long it will take from Yelahanka to reach Koramangala but we think he we can work out time of every horse in Class VB race.

Learning is a never-ending process.

The more you learn the more questions , the more doubts  if you really understand both the questions and answers.

If not it gives you a false sense of one- upman-ship, a pseudo confidence and bravado.

That does not.mean one must not learn . Or do loud thinking.

 When one is young one can afford to do more mistakes and learn from them. The more mistakes lead to more learning.

However knowledge is one thing. The skill of Applying the knowledge is another thing. 

Knowledge, details , data are O.K. if one has the skill to filter it out to know the essentials, segregating the  major from the minors.

It is always possible for one Tob lost in the details ( To borrow from GP sir's comments.).

There are hundreds of factors that determin why  and how how a horse wins.

'It is not always that the best horse wins ' .

Every race is different.  When Dharmesh said that " Supernatural ticked all the boxes"   he does not mean hundreds of boxes. May be a six or seven , sometimes ten. 

And the boxes will differ from race to  race.

The skill , the decision skill , is in filtering out all the data , to narrow down on the essentials  , evaluate them to arrive at a decision.

A Horse Trainer need to know all about his horses , its nutrition and care , its movements and conformation, suitable exercise regimen, technicalities on shoeing , saddlery , temperament, shying, fighting spirits, running style. He also must know the seating and riding posture of his jockeys , suitability for a horse , for a distance , for a running strategy.

A jockey should know, how to read a horse in motion, how to be alert , how to collect a horse , whenn to ride out , when to move , whenn or not to whip, when to ride it with hands and heels , be alert about other runners , be alert about closing gaps and momentary openings, how.to read the turf on the go , which patches to avoid , and so on.

For a Punter?

A Punter need not have the knowledge of a trainer nor that of jockey. He is not traing nor riding the horse. 

Whatever Horse wins or loses is not a matter to him.

To a Punter the betting decision is paramount. He should take the decision based on his extensive 1.  knowledge  and keeping his head level , not lost in the details , 2. The decision skills of filtering out the essentials , reviewing it subconsciously and analysing it logically , to come to a firm , not ambiguous , conclusion.

3. The clues from the environment  like paddock signals , observation on the fitness of the horses, moving odds , general vibes in the betting ring may finally give the final decision input to bet on the horse of the choice or not.

The Triage of Extensive Knowledge, Decision Skill and Listening to the right Environmental Clues comes with experience.

Of course it does not come every racing day.  It does not come in every race. Unless one is experienced enough. Unless one  has leared from his experiences.

One has to be acutely aware of one self .

For One Bets against one's knowledge, Biases and Self Discipline. Not  simply on a horse. Not against a booky.

Gather knowledge.

Don't get lost in the details.

Get the big picture.

Keep on improving.

Simple but Not Easy.

@ wild card entry

Many things to consider.. Conditions matter a lot.. Its like a process.. If you get the result with the primary method you don't need the secondary one.. Its like method 1 method 2 method 3 depending on the type of the race.. Weights for age, surely videos..

@ heera

I have not compared the strides in a handicap race.. You have handicapping methods to decide which one is better.. In a weights for age race these things count.. As I said its like different methods to different type of races..

@Raghavan

A bookie can always outsmart me.. Racing is not fair and there's no guaranty that the horse will perform as the same way it did previously.. I had 3 bets on Sunday.. Yesterday, Beauty Blaze and Ashoka.. Only one horse won.. But I'm not disappointed with the end result of the day.. 

Coming to Ashoka yes I backed Ashoka 30-70.. Bookies gave 10/1 and 3/1.. It was beaten fair and square but ran a good race.. In the rain huge horse like Ashoka is bound to struggle unless its a wet tracker.. Now it had a benefit of run so next time if Ashoka meets this bunch again on a firmer ground it would beat them..

@ Manjunath

First thing horse should have a big stride.. And next it should be able to do that continuously to be a good horse.. Say it covered 100m in 13.5 strides so you can say it has a good stride close to 25 feet.. What if it takes 7 seconds to do the 13.5 strides? Then it would be a dud.. If it can stride the 13.5 in under 6 seconds then only you can consider the horse.. When you have time watch sir Cecil gallop in the last 100.. It takes 14 strides to cover it but takes half a sec less than other horses to make the 14 starts.. So the frequency is more important than the stride length..

@shwth

Im not an expert in ratings.. But I think this is a class 1 race.. So class penalty applies.. If its a handicap terms race then if lagos wins its rating will go better than smashing blue.. I'm not confident in this but I think its the way it works

@Confused punter

My contention about Ashoka is that its not really a sprinter but its class prevailed.. Why I thought it would be good enough to win a 1400m? A good stayer like a 2000m horse will run well over 1400m fresh.. In the beginning of their preparation.. So I thought it would be able to see through that lot.. I think its target will be the 2000 guineas.. So it will run another 1400m to strip fitter and take on the 1600m challenge..

@ Danish

Congrats to you, one of your three picks won the race and the rest finished 3rd and 4th.. 

1] less stride but slow or mpre stride but quick - how do you account for that ..digging deeper is like digging a deeper grave ...2]In my early days I dug deep used to see old track work etc In the process my outdoor life suffered there was mental fatigue bad scenario it did help but not to a great extent plus bad lifestyle .3] A peak fit horse can be made unfit in a matter of few minutes by anyone who is close and has power to manage the horse how can you account for that 4]later I just watched the video saw the stride[without checking how many] the company it ran and now current company the distance and the ability to improve or not 4] paddock reading gave some clue as to how the horse is behaving and how fit it is ....past company and current company is a important part for betting ....horse finishing last in derby can win in a open race.

Sudheer ji, 

Your narration is good, people like you is very important in horse talk.. Whether a horse wins  or not you have the explanation,,

But you have  given only one tenth of the information, there are many to be considered I think.

Hi Sudheer,

Interesting and twist thinking.

Strides are based on horse stamina in the last 100-200 metres is based on distance and weight carried on horse with trainer preparation.

You cannot simply compare two horses and come to the conclusion. This will create confusion in your thought.

If you are so confidence, note the strides of each race and compare with the result.

Regards

Heera

Sudheer,

O K if this additional knowledge gives you higher edge in competitive betting than many other punters. 

The lengthy essay may benefit one or two horsetalk members.  I do not study so much while finalising my preferences. 

*****

Ashoka had decent past performance.  2 wins out of three starts.  But, my 100% guarantee was the favorite Crown consort.

Did you played Ashoka for win/place/shp today?  

***********

Too many times horses run as per merits.  And, even in such cases, the beneficiary will be bookies only.  

You enter the race course with all the theories strongly etched in your memories.  The bookie, who may not be having 1/4th of racing knowledge as yours, will be able to outsmart you.

HELLO SUDHEER,

Partly I understood your write-up; I am unable to understand the clarity with respect to stride frequency to the stride length. If the horse Ashoka took 13.5 strides to the last 100 meters, what is the necessity of common stride frequency to the stride length? Please explain. Thank you for sharing your horse strength capacity.

Brilliant analysis Sudheer.

TOMMORROW.7 races.Average 9 horses..(63) horses,atleast two run video we have to watch 126 videos,counting stride may take about 2 to  2.5 hours per race., including STRIDE COUNTING 

Hope i will be able to compile my findings and arrive at some conclusions probably by the last race TOMMORROW.

Hi 

@Sudheer 

I am new to this forum, still a novice in this field. My question is regarding ratings, taking example of tomorrow's race. I have 3 cases 

1) If scramjet wins by a length or less will it's rating go above 110 (smashing blues rating).

2) If scramjet comes second to smashing blue will it's rating go above 109(hartnell rating)

3) If scramjet beats Lagos and Lagos runs behind scramjet will it's rating go above 92 (Lagos rating)

Similar questions apply to Lagos as the above scenarios.

Kindly guide.

Sudheer sir,

Here you say Ahoka needs longer distances and in the selection section you fancy it. Kindly clarify the comfusion/

Sudheer said in selections column, "After watching the mock race of Ashoka, I don't think any of these horses can beat it.. Its big strider.. Came on from the last start.. Bangalore horses have fitness advantage and image had a run too.. But the mock race is too good to ignore.. The other horses can't keep up with Ashoka if it's in galloping mood... Would love to take a chance on Ashoka.. From what I see Ashoka just can't get beaten."

You don't have to be NAMBI NARAYAN to find winner in horse racing 

My calculations suggests ASHOKA at best can come Third.The prime contenders are Artimes Ignacia,Crown consort and The Image.