The late Federico Tesio, arguably the greatest Thoroughbred breeder of all time, is reported to have said, "The Thoroughbred exists not because of years of scientific breeding, but because of a piece of wood, the winning post at Epsom in The Derby." Apocryphal or otherwise, the remark – or at least the idea it conveyed – was "spot on" for most of the 20th century.

Recent statistics have shown a worrying decline in the reputation of the Epsom Derby as a source of successful sires. In the past 30 years, only 4 of its winners had sired English classic winners, namely Galileo (2001), Shaamit (1996), Secreto (1984) and Slip Anchor (1985), until the recent win earlier this month for Arctic Cosmos, a son of North Light (2004), who was mentioned in these columns last week. What's more, only one winner of the "Blue Riband of the Turf" in this period has become champion sire in the British Isles, the aforementioned Galileo (by Sadler's Wells).

Others, such as Nashwan (1989), Quest For Fame (1990), Dr Devious (1992), Commander In Chief (1993), Sinndar (2000) and High Chaparral (2002) have had their share of successes, mainly outside the British Isles. However, the likes of Henbit (1980), Teenoso (1983), Erhaab (1994) and Benny The Dip (1997) have proved to be downright disappointing, if not detrimental to the breed. The future of this year's exciting winner, Workforce, is up in the air at the moment, following his below-par performance at his last start.

Absent for the track for almost 11 months with a series of niggling issues, last year's star miler Delegator (by Dansili) resumed where he had left off when just holding off rivals Awzaan and Sir Gerry in the Listed Dubai Duty Free Cup at Newbury on September 17th. Ridden by Ted Durcan, and trained for Godolphin by Saeed bin Suroor, the colt will now step up in company. "He’s never had anything major wrong with him, just sore heels and warts," said his trainer, "and I thought he’d run a huge race but he will improve a ton. The Gr.2 Challenge Stakes may be the target and we will keep options open for the Breeders' Cup and Hong Kong."

North America Fields in races in the USA (and Canada) are destined to decline from 2012 onwards with the alarming fall in the foal crop in 2010. According to a report issued by the registering body, the U S Jockey Club, the 49,404 mares that were mated in North America in 2009 have produced 27,233 live foals of 2010 as reported to it till September 8th. This latter number is fully 14.2% down from the same time last year, when the corresponding figure was 31,727.

Of the 3,130 stallions with at least one mare mated in 2009, the one with the biggest representation in 2010 is El Prado's son, Medaglia d'Oro, sire of last year's Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. His 163 live offspring came from a busy season in which he was mated with 205 mares, some of them from his time at Stonewall Farm in Midway, and the balance after he made a surprising mid-season move to Darley in Lexington.

It is estimated that the final tally of foals for 2010 will touch 30,000, a low number last seen in 1977. Of course numbers are not everything and most of the "missing" foals did not deserve to be produced anyway, since it is inevitably the poorer mares which are not persevered with in a downturn. Still, it is a pointer to the ruthless nature of the economic downturn that the US is now facing. Horse racing does not get as much play in the mainstream media these days as compared to say, the 'forties when staples like Life and the Saturday Evening Post covered the sport extensively. Thus it is all the more heartening that O, The Oprah Winfrey Magazine, which has a readership of about 2.5 million people, chose to include a special lady in the 2010 O Power List of Personalities published this week. Keeping company with the likes of actress Julia Roberts and designer Vera Wang was none other than the undefeated Zenyatta!

Japan
Japanese Thoroughbred breeding has taken giant strides in the past couple of decades, a fruit of massive investments in bloodstock during the 'seventies and 'eighties. Horses like El Condor Pasa (1995 by Kingmambo) and Deep Impact (2002 by Sunday Silence) placed in that great all-aged test, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Gr.1, in France.

Never content to rest on their laurels, Japanese horsemen are taking the forthcoming Breeders Cup, to be run in November at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, very seriously.

Trainer Mikio Matsunaga has sent his ward Red Desire (Manhattan Cafe – Great Sunrise, by Caerleon) to New York, where she arrived on September 16th. Prior to tackling the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, his connections want to give her a prep race under American conditions and have selected the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park on October 2nd for this purpose.

Red Desire has more than adequate credentials for the purpose – she was runner-up to champion Buena Vista (by Special Week) in both the Japanese 1000 Guineas and the Japanese Oaks last year before taking revenge over that rival in the Shuka Sho in October. Red Desire also disposed of international company in the 2009 Japan Cup, Gr.1, where she was an excellent third to Vodka (by Tanino Gimlet) and Oken Bruce Lee (by Jungle Pocket). She then proceeded to beat future Dubai World Cup winner Gloria de Campeao (by Impression) in the 3rd leg of the Maktoum Challenge at Meydan racecourse in Dubai in March this year.

Although he has not yet been shipped to the USA, another with a flight booked is Espoir City (Gold Allure – Eminent City, by Brian's Time), regarded as being the best dirt horse in the country, with 11 wins from 19 starts. Trainer Akio Adachi's charge has a race pencilled in on October 12th before he makes the arduous journey to Churchill Downs.

Son of former Calcutta veteran Laurie Fownes, the Hong Kong-based Caspar Fownes has done well in his chosen profession. The New Zealand-bred Green Birdie (Catbird – Mrs Squillionaire, by Last Tycoon), who hails from his yard, showed his worth when almost toppling 14 Japanese rivals in the fifth leg of the Global Sprint Challenge, the 1200 m. Centaur Stakes, Gr.2, at Hanshin Racecourse near Osaka in Japan on September 12th. While the record books will show that Dasher Go Go (Sakura Bakushin O – Negano, by Miswaki) secured the prize, Green Birdie – who was conceding 4 kg. – was catching him hand-over-fist and missed by only a neck. That sets the latter up perfectly for the Gr.1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama on October 3rd.

"Obviously we came here to win and in that respect we have to be a bit disappointed," said Fownes, who added, "but we have to be very excited too as he's run a really cracking race and given us every hope for the Sprinters Stakes next month. We got shuttled back a little bit more than we wanted and got out a little bit later than we wanted, but I'd said to Mark (jockey Du Plessis) that I wanted him ridden quiet. Of course it's a little bit heartbreaking to get so close, but I couldn't really ask for anything more than that and his last sectional must have been something amazing."

Australia
Australia has been affected by its worst locust plague in 75 years. There have been suggestions that the marauding insects could affect the running of the 3,200 m. Emirates Melbourne Cup, Gr.1, on November 2nd. Victorian state premier John Brumby is reported to have said the plague, which could wipe out a quarter of the agricultural crop and result in billions of dollars of damage, could force the cancellation of the event.

However, the chief executive of the Victoria Racing Club dismissed the threat. Dale Monteith said, "We've got contingency plans in place and we're quite confident, based on the best advice that we've got, that it shouldn't present a problem for us running the Melbourne Cup Carnival."