The general U.S. media is anguished about the fact that neither the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver nor the Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky is in the field for the $1,000,000 142nd Belmont Stakes, to be run at 6:32 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, June 5th, in New York. As a result, there have been some bizarre recommendations in the press – such as reducing the distance of the third leg of the Triple Crown.

What has been forgotten is that breeders in North America do not seem to be breeding horses that can stay, nor are trainers familiar with the regimen required for stamina-oriented racing. For those with a historical perspective, it's clear that short-sighted measures like altering the trip for the hallowed Jockey Club Gold Cup from 2 miles to 1-1/2 miles in 1977, and again to 1-1/4 miles in 1990, have had an adverse long-term effect!

This is only the third time in the past four decades that the actual winners of the first two legs will be missing. However, Ice Box (Pulpit-Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat) may be considered to have been the moral winner of the Derby – he finished so fast into second, from an impossible position, that in all probability he would have won without the interference. Earlier in the year, he had won the Gr.1 Florida Derby in March. Given his 2010 record (2 wins and 1 second, from 4 starts), he looks on the upgrade – if the pace is decent, the 5 to 2 chance looks like the proverbial "good thing" and should triumph with ease under Jose Lezcano for trainer Nick Zito.

The only other Gr.1 winner in the field is Stately Victor (Ghostzapper-Collect The Cash, by Dynaformer), who annexed the Blue Grass Stakes in April. This credential should earn him respect at the betting windows but given his morning-line odds of 15 to 1 that seems unlikely. It seems he is being forgotten on the basis of one unplaced run in the Derby, which really ought to be excused given the chaos and hoopla associated with Churchill Downs. Also, the form of his biggest triumph is working out well with horses behind him in the Bluegrass (Paddy O'Prado, First Dude) stepping up to Classic placings next time out. Alan Garcia has the call on Mike Maker's ward.

First Dude (Stephen Got Even-Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike), who ran a monster of a race in the Preakness, is the second choice at 7 to 2. However, it is going to be difficult for him to make all the running, as he so nearly did at 9-1/2 furlongs, over the gruelling 12 furlongs of the Belmont. Other factors against his chances include: a) being well-held on form by both Ice Box and Stately Victor, and b) having had a hard race last time. Thus he could well run below par. That said, he is a big and strong individual and trainer Dale Romans is quietly confident. Ramon Dominguez will try and steer him to victory. Quoted at 9 to 2, Fly Down (Mineshaft-Queen Randi, by Fly So Free) is a stablemate of the public choice. He owns a victory at Belmont, which he gained when winning the Dwyer Stakes (Gr.2) on May 8th by six long lengths, so has an advantage over his rivals on that score. Also, he has beaten First Dude both times they have met and will have the services of champion John Velasquez in the driver's seat. However, this will be Fly Down's first effort in Grade 1 company.

All the other eight contestants are available at 10 to 1 or higher. Perhaps Drosselmeyer (by Distorted Humor), Make Music For Me (by Bernstein), Uptowncharlybrown (by Limehouse) or Game On Dude (by Awesome Again) will suddenly show a new level of form over the added distance – as 38 to 1 Da` Tara did a couple of years ago!

With a good pace, it looks like Ice Box will surely prevail; should it be a muddling pace, anything could step up and win it. Thunderstorms are forecast to be lurking in the area. Should they materialize, they could affect the outcome.