“You know horses are smarter than people. You never heard of a horse going broke betting on people.”

There are so many variations of speed ratings. There have even been books written on them. Different racing publications feature different ratings. Beyer, developed by Andy Beyer, is one of the most common ratings. Brisnet utilizes what they call ‘Bris Speed Ratings’.

All speed ratings, even proprietary ones developed by individuals for their own use, utilize a variation of projection methods. The concept of the speed rating is basically to create a comparison against different horses on different tracks in order to perform some type of analysis when comparing race horses and racing tracks or surfaces. There are a lot of handicappers that swear by speed ratings and believe they produce great value in a simplistic way to handicap or interpret a race. A lot of handicappers look at speed ratings to help determine where a horse is in his racing cycle. Speed ratings are like scores – the higher the number, the better the horse, at least at that particular distance on that particular racing surface.

The problem with speed ratings is that they require human intervention and could vary day to day. That said, they are a good tool but not a solution when it comes to handicapping. If you’re really into the speed ratings of horses and want to get a better understanding of how to interpret that data and how to transfer that data to different distances at various tracks, I suggest reading several good books on the philosophy and methodology of this handicapping tool. I have found speed ratings to be a great way to eliminate horses and not necessarily identify the ones I want to bet. But, that’s just my own methodology and part of my handicapping practice.

Speed ratings on horses will vary dramatically and there are a lot of reasons for that. So, just trying to pick a winner and placing bets based on a speed rating number alone is a big-time losing proposition. I have found that speed ratings can help identify horses either peaking or coming into form, which could help you, the bettor, look for value when placing your bets. We use our own speed rating formula and actually have a 5% margin of error, which we intentionally impose to help mimic the human intervention factor when it comes to the speed ratings generated by some popular programs. When first reviewing a horse in our game through the past performance lines, the speed rating can help you identify at what distance, race track, and track surface and racing age this horse performs well. Obviously, you need to truly understand the full past performance information and racing charts to strengthen your opinion or move away from it, but for a quick overview when eliminating contenders, whether you’re playing in our jockey or betting game, the quick approach identified above can be valuable helping you spot winners more consistently. Please remember, Our Game is a computer program and there are numerous randomized factors that can throw you off, at least for a race or two, until you have built enough history on a horse to see consistent performance.

For beginners going to the track or beginners in Our Game, I suggest considering speed ratings as a critical tool in identifying the horses that you will jockey or bet. It will help you pick more winners more often and as you get comfortable, you can move on to the other past performance information that the game builds as you run the races.

How to interpret Ragozin figures Len Ragozin, the “father” of speed ratings, pioneered the production of precise and accurate figures for all horses running at major and most minor tracks in the United States and Canada. His system measures how fast each horse has run, taking into account weight carried, wind corrections, ground loss, and the resiliency of the track surface as measured by a daily variant. Len Ragozin and his father were the first to identify that those are the crucial factors in racing a horse’s performance and to apply a serious scientific approach to determine their measurement and relationship to each other.

Ragozin’s figures are based on a system in which a lower number represents a stronger effort. A figure of “0” is equivalent to a top-class Grade 1-quality effort, although in recent years a small number of champion horses, like Ghostzapper, have run as fast as minus 3s. The best figures are usually run races like the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), with the winner normally earning between a -2 and 0. Slower winning numbers can run as high as in the 30s inexpensive maiden claimers.

The Beyer speed rating is one of the most practical ways that handicapper should begin their journey to picking the correct horse. The speed of a horse can alter the race on how fast it takes the lead or when it decides to turn it on the stretch. The speed rating was created by Andrew Beyer and it gives us a numerical representation of a horse's performance based on the final time of the track that it ran on. The higher the speed figures the better the performance. Sounds simple right? If one could go to the track and go large on the ones with the highest speed ratings all the time there would be no need for this website.

When looking at ratings and you see a horse that regularly earns figures in the 50's and is meeting a handful of runners always in the 70's, we can usually throw this horse out. This just stands out to us that the horse is in a class below the horses it’s up against. It’s not the actual speed rating that makes the difference; it’s how it acquired that speed rating. You are trying to handicap the true speed of the horse; this is done by observing past speeds that stay around the same range. Also a true one can be determined by a horse that goes wire to wire with no true challengers.

You also have to be aware of the horse that had a poor speed rating last time out but has been stellar in the previous ones. There could be a valid reason for this poor speed rating. These horses can sometimes avoid betting traffic and you can get some decent odds on a horse that wins the race easily. Look for the circumstances that offer the best value. Unfortunately, factors play in the speed rating such as track bias, troubled trips, trainer conditioning, post position, trainer intent and etc... Don't let that discourage you. The more you know of those, the more accurate you will be with speed ratings. These ratings are basically something to measure one horse against other to see which one is superior. The problem with speed ratings is they are only fairly accurate for comparison if the same conditions were present that day with the same distance.

There have been numerous patterns studied to get a commonality among speed ratings, so in this modern age you can use those to your advantage in handicapping horse racing. Here is a very simple approach that you can apply - * Do this for each horse in the program, the more recent the races the better the prediction of speed the horse will run.
* Take the horses in the field and average their two best speed ratings at today's distance. (Because distance plays a huge factor in the speed of a horse)
*Make note if the races are at the same track that is running today. If you can compare it against a horse that ran the same track you have straight up speed ratings and pick the one that is higher.
* After this is done for each horse I like to make a note of the top 3 and continue with my handicapping. This gives you a good solid use for the Beyer system in the modern age. This is very simple in its process but very effective and gives you a solid number to go off.

As you can see, Speed Rating can be played by a variety of ways. What I like to do is continue to look for overlays to understand why they had a great trip or a bad one. If the horse just had a bad outing that is uncharacteristic of him then you can throw that particular race out. I always throw horses out that have their general speed rating a lot lower than the rest. Incorporate this simple formula while looking at the speed rating and make sure this is one of the several bullets in your gun.

Every year, millions of people try to handicap the Kentucky Derby. While other great horse races in America may have bigger purses and offer some of the best racing on the planet, the Kentucky Derby is the classic American Race for three year-olds. Traditionally contested on the first Saturday in May each year, the Derby is limited to a field of 20. However, since each horse in the race is being asked to do something it has not attempted in the past that is more than enough entries to strain any horse racing handicapper's brain.

The key to handicapping the first leg of the Triple Crown (the Preakness and Belmont are the other two legs) is understanding that it is a classic race at a classic distance. The Kentucky Derby is contested over 1 1/4 miles. That is farther than the 3-year old horses have raced up until then and usually, because all 20 posts are filled, it is a bigger field than they have competed against.

The changes to field size and distance make a big difference and make it difficult to project just which horses will be able to handle the distance and pandemonium. Traffic problems abound for Derby horses and getting a good trip can mean the difference between success and failure. You can't handicap racing luck, but you can handicap breeding, form, and pace. First look at the breeding of the horses and determine which ones are bred to go the classic distance. Some past performances now offer what is called the "Dosage Index," for each horse, a mathematical way of determining a score based on the preferred racing distances of the horses ancestors. The lower the dosage, the more likely the horse will handle the mile and a quarter.

Many times when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, would-be prognosticators focus on speed figures. While not completely irrelevant, they do not weigh as heavily as dosage, pace, and form when finding a good bet. Once you have determined which horses are bred for the distance, the next task is to determine which horses are rounding into form at the right time. In horse racing, timing is crucial and trainers try to have their horses’ physical form peaking on the first Saturday in May. Look at the races leading up to the Derby and try to determine how the horse has progressed and what it may have left.

Pace is a big part of the race as well. Very few front-runners have won the Derby, but horses who have both tactical speed and a good late kick, fare very well. Because traffic problems abound and it is sometimes necessary to weave through the pack or to go wide in the stretch, runners need to be able to shift gears. While the last Derby winner, Mine That Bird, was able to slip through on the rail with a very skilful and lucky pilot in Calvin Borel, such trips are rare.

The last bit of advice on the Kentucky Derby that I would like to share is that there are several kinds of races for true horse players. There are playing races and watching races. While the Derby is interesting, it is usually not a good race to make money on unless you have a crystal ball. Watch it and enjoy it but save the major portion of your bankroll for races that are easier to handicap with more manageable fields and horses that have proven they can do what is being asked of them.