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Ice Box Favourite for the Belmont Stakes
By Guru Badrain | 18 May 2010 |
Ice Box
The 2010 Irish 2000 Guineas will take place at the Curragh in Ireland on Saturday the 22nd of May, 2010.
The English 2000 Guineas at Newmarket is the oldest of the British Classic races, taking its name from the prize fund offered for a race first run in 1809. In Ireland, the Derby – first raced at the Curragh in 1866 – is the oldest of the Irish Classics.
Irish 2000 Guineas history began in 1921, one year before the first Irish 1000 Guineas was raced. The inaugural race went to the Irish-trained colt Soldennis. Since then, the Irish 2000 Guineas have been raced every year without exception, on the opening day of the Irish Guineas Festival.
The Irish versions of the Classic races have a shorter history than their British counterparts; the history of racing at the Curragh predates the earliest records of racing in Britain. Irish manuscripts show that the flat plain known as the Curragh – or “An Currach”, which means racecourse in Irish – hosted chariot races as early as the third century. In pre-Christian times of Irish 2000 Guinea’s history, the Celtic chieftains and kings used the Curragh as a meeting place and as a site for racing horses.
The oldest documented course located at the Curragh was the four-mile King’s Plate, dating back to 1717. Connolly’s Mile, the straight mile run to the winning post, is still part of the course, and dates to the 1760s. The rest of the current course at Curragh was established in the 1750s.
This Irish location, which is hosting the five Irish Classic races and several other top Group 1 flat races, is the largest horse training centre in Ireland. As many as 26% of all horses trained in Ireland are trained here – and the Curragh has produced many thoroughbred legends that went on to win top races throughout the world. The area surrounding the Curragh is also host to a large number of stud farms.
Ballydoyle trainer Aiden O’Brien accounts for nine of the 20 entries set for the Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas (Ire-G1) on Saturday at the Curragh.
O’Brien’s contingent of three year-olds may be reduced by one later this week, however. The trainer said Steinbeck, listed as the favourite by British bookmakers Paddy Power and Ladbrokes, may not run in the Irish classic race.
The impressive maiden winner by Footstepsinthesand was pulled from consideration for the Stanjames.com 2000 Guineas (Eng-G1) with an injury.
“We will wait a few days before deciding if [Steinbeck] will run on Saturday,” O’Brien told Racing Post. “He is only a possible runner at this stage.”
Steinbeck opened his career with a 2 1/2-length romp in a six-furlong race in May 2009 at Naas. In his most recent start, Steinbeck finished fourth, beaten only by a half-length in the Jumeirah Dewhurst Stakes (Eng-G1).
Despite the possible no-show of Steinbeck, Ballydoyle holds the strongest hand entering the race.
With the English 2000 Guineas having produced the predicted upset at Newmarket, with 33/1 outsider Mafki running out the winner, all eyes will be on the 2000 Guineas winner as he looks to pick up the Irish/English Guineas double for his connections.
I have put down the Irish 2000 Guineas race favourites with my opinions about them.
Mafki: Mafki came out of nowhere to win the English 2000 Guineas by just over a length at Newmarket at the beginning of May. That victory means he’s unbeaten on the flat, adding his first Group 1 success to a maiden stakes and a French Group 3. He wasn’t convincing enough at Newmarket to suggest he’ll handle a change in ground well, and is priced low enough for a solid lay bet.
Royal Bench: A new face in the Guineas is next in the betting, with Royal Bench priced just behind Mafki. This horse’s claim to fame is a recent conditions win in a French race. Apart from that, he didn’t really show much in his only Group 1 outing, the 2009 Criterium International, where he finished sixth. His connections obviously feel he’s improved and will have a liking to the Curragh turf, but we don’t find him convincing enough to be second in the betting.
Canford Cliffs: Canford Cliffs finished third in the English 2000 Guineas and that’s where he stands in the betting for the Irish equivalent. While he’s only won once at Group level, taking a Group 2 in France as a 2-year-old, he’s now made the places in two Group 1s and has never finished outside the places in a race during his career. Unfortunately, he’s priced too short to provide any value on an each-way bet.
The Long Shots would be as follows:
Awzaan came stone-cold last in the English 2000 Guineas, failing to win a race for the first time in his career. Mick Johnston was at a loss to explain his performance, but the upshot of his failure is he’ll be trading at over 30/1 for the Irish 2000 Guineas, and remains a class act. Another horse to watch out for is local hero Cape Blanco. He’s familiar with local conditions and is unbeaten in his career to date.
Horses have to be something special to take the Guineas double, and with respect to Mafki he doesn’t seem to be something special. With this in mind, the 2010 Irish 2000 Guineas betting tip will be a lay bet on Mafki.
Let’s fly back to USA. It is a season for Triple Crown and Super saver and Lookin At Lucky have been the talk of the town. The latest is that there will be no dual Classic winner in the US this year with connections of both Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky and Kentucky Derby hero Super Saver ruling out a tilt at the Belmont Stakes on June 5.
Trainer Bob Baffert said of Lookin At Lucky and the Belmont: "If he was going for the Triple Crown, I'd take him to New York. But I'm going to take him home to freshen up. He's been going strong since he was a two year-old."
Ice Box, the Kentucky Derby runner-up and probable favourite for the $1 million Belmont Stakes, worked four furlongs in 49.65 seconds on Tuesday morning over the Saratoga training track. Exercise rider Maxine Correa was aboard for the work, which was the seventh fastest of 22 recorded at the distance.
It was the first timed move for Ice Box since his troubled-trip second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby on May 1. Ice Box, who won the Grade 1 Florida Derby in March, did not run in the Preakness.
"He worked very, very well, in hand, I was happy," trainer Nick Zito said from Saratoga.
Another headlines to reckon with is that American racing is in turmoil with showpiece meetings at Belmont Park and Saratoga and future Breeders' Cups at Santa Anita all being brought into question amid financial wrangling on both coasts. The cash-strapped New York Racing Association (NYRA) has issued a warning that racing in the state may have to shut down in less than three weeks on June 6 - the day after the Belmont Stakes.
Although the claims will be regarded as mere rattling in some quarters, according to one report even Saratoga, which hosts the nation's premier meeting every summer, could be "in serious jeopardy".
In California, the future of Breeders' Cups at Santa Anita has come under threat after the track's bankrupt owners Magna voided a lease whereby the non-profit Oak Tree association hosts the meeting. Santa Anita president Ron Charles has resigned ahead of a board meeting on Thursday when Oak Tree's status will be on the agenda.
This development comes at a time when there are moves to make Santa Anita, arguably the most popular Breeders' Cup venue, at least a semi-permanent home for the annual event. Quoted in an Associated Press report, trainer Rick Violette, president of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association, described the situation as "catastrophic."
Not for the first time, NYRA president and CEO Charlie Hayward issued a statement on Monday where he suggested racing may have to be stopped in the near future.
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