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Blind Luck Thrills All at Kentucky Oaks

By Guru Badrain | 01 May 2010 |


Blind Luck

The stretch at Churchill Downs might seem never-ending, especially if you are aboard a filly named Blind Luck and you are the 6-5 favourite in the 136th running of the Kentucky Oaks. Rafael Bejarano knew Blind Luck had plenty of run left in her, but she had dawdled a bit early in the race and they had lost ground. He asked his filly for more as he headed into the final outstretch. Blind Luck picked it up on the outside. When Bejarano hit the stretch, a filly named Evening Jewel was four lengths ahead. In the clubhouse, the trainer of Blind Luck knew his filly was in trouble. “I was really concerned,” Bejarano says. But she was not. “I knew she was going to show me a big kick,” Bejarano said. “The other horse was still running strong. She gave me an extra kick, and that’s why she finished.” Did she finish, pounding down the lane for 200 yards until she was nose-to-nose with Evening Jewel... The photo finish camera flashed, and then everyone in the crowd of 116,046 waited. The image showed Blind Luck a slim nostril ahead of Evening Jewel. “I didn’t know she was a winner until they put her number up,” said Hollendorfer, who co-owns the filly. It was a special victory for Hollendorfer indeed. He had decided to skip the Derby with Blind Luck even though she is among the best 3-year-olds of any sex. Is the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes in her future plan? Hollendorfer dodged the question. “We targeted this race, and we’ll come up with a plan later,” he said. “Let’s enjoy this one first.” Countdown for The Big Race Who is going to win purse money of $2,000,000 (about Rs 8, 88, 60,000)? Do you think that 2 year-old champion Lookin at Lucky will prove lucky for trainer Bob with his fourth victory in the Run for the Roses? The field for the 136th running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby has seen many tortuous happenings in the preparatory period and more so in the last week and now the full field of 20 is raring to jump out. Let’s take a closer look at what the field has accomplished or might accomplish more on the D-day. Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML odds 1 Lookin At Lucky Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 3-to-1 2 Ice Box Jose Lezcano Nick Zito 10-to-1 3 Noble’s Promise Willie Martinez Ken McPeek 12-to-1 4 Super Saver Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 15-to-1 5 Line of David Rafael Bejarano John Sadler 30-to-1 6 Stately Victor Alan Garcia Mike Maker 30-to-1 7 American Lion David Flores Eoin Harty 30-to-1 8 Dean’s Kitten Robby Albarado Mike Maker 50-to-1 9 Make Music for Me Joel Rosario Alexis Barba 50-to-1 10 Paddy O’Prado Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 20-to-1 11 Devil May Care John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 10-to-1 12 Conveyance Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12-to-1 13 Jackson Bend Mike Smith Nick Zito 15-to-1 14 Mission Impazible Rajiv Maragh Todd Pletcher 20-to-1 15 Discreetly Mine Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 30-to-1 16 Awesome Act Julien Leparoux Jeremy Noseda 10-to-1 17 Dublin Terry Thompson D. Wayne Lukas 12-to-1 18 Backtalk Miguel Mena Tom Amoss 50-to-1 19 Homeboykris Ramon Dominguez Richard Dutrow Jr. 50-to-1 20 Sidney’s Candy Joe Talamo John Sadler 5-to-1 Courtesy: www.thoroughbredtimes.com With all the potential angles in play that make it tough to separate some contenders from one another, I have divided my selections into two sections with the first section including horses I feel could run well enough to win the Derby, and the second section comprising of horses that are capable of running on board and, therefore, may be backed accordingly. Awesome Act earned a career best speed when winning the Gotham Stakes in March, showing an admirable turn-of-foot in the straight to win more easily than it might appear. Following the Gotham, Awesome Act was compromised by a poor start in which he stumbled and lost a shoe, racing the remainder of the one and one-eighth mile race with the equivalent of a flat tire. Nevertheless, Awesome Act was eager to run and moved up from last to get to second with an eighth of a mile to go before weakening, yet still just a neck from the runner-up at the end as winner Eskendereya powered on to win by almost 10 lengths. With it appearing likely that Awesome Act can actually improve off his Gotham effort in the Derby, which will be only his third race after the layoff, and with two recent strong workouts over the Churchill Downs surface, I believe Awesome Act has what it takes to win the Derby. Lookin at Lucky wasn’t very lucky when he drew the rail for this year’s Derby, because in a field of 20 with a number of horses trying to get position closer to the rail before the first turn, it is possible he could be crowded for room back in the early stages. Of course, jockey Garrett Gomez could ask the colt for some early speed to keep that from happening and hope it does not take its toll on him in the late stages. On the present form, Lookin At Lucky may deserve the favouritism blessed on him by the public, as prior to his troubled third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby last month he had won six of seven and finished second by a head in his other race. Lookin At Lucky has all the reasons to wear the blanket of roses in this year’s Derby. Devil May Care ran the fastest race of any Derby entrant when winning the Bonnie Miss Stakes on March. That was faster than Sidney's Candy in the Santa Anita Derby as per the speed ratings. Much more focused in her morning track with blinkers “ON”, which she will wear for the first time in the Derby, Devil May Care may certainly have more to show us as it appears she has yet to peak, and could be the first filly to win the Derby since Winning Colors in 1988. Stately Victor posted the 40 to 1 upset to win the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes last month at Keeneland, the reason he was disregarded by the public being that he had lost six races in a row and had not shown much ability to win in any of those. However, the way Stately Victor won the race with a big burst of speed in the last eighth of a mile should not be ignored. Sidney's Candy has an extreme outside draw at the gates. It is to be noted that his recent victories came on the synthetic track at Santa Anita and it appears that Sidney’s Candy just as capable of coming from behind as he is in leading from the start, and the Derby will be his chance to prove it, given that the other entrant from the barn of John Sadler is Line of David, a confirmed front-runner. It is doubtful that Sadler will instruct both Joe Talamo on Sidney's Candy and Rafael Bejarano astride Line of David to go for the lead from the start, particularly considering that Conveyance would want the early lead at any cost. If Sidney Candy can take off the early pacesetters, he could be the horse making the lead at the right time and go on to win the Derby. Sidney’s Candy, trained by John Sadler, is a homebred for Jenny Craig and her late husband, Sid. The son of Candy Ride is three for three this year while running on the front end. He has won the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), the 1 1/16-miles San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), and the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby. "Not the best of draws," Sadler said of the draw. "What can I say? At least you’re outside and can see what’s going on. It just shows you how tough it is (to win any race and especially this race). But what are you going to do? That’s how it works. You’ve just got to deal with what you’ve got and do the best you can with it." Sadler added that he liked the post position for Line of David. "It’s a good post. I like it for him. We’ll try to take advantage of it." By the way, Big Brown won from draw 20 in 2008. These are the horses below that I would definitely consider for Trifecta, Exacta and Superfecta, considering that the payoffs in a 20-horse field such as this year’s Derby can be substantial. Ice Box closed fastest of all to win the Florida Derby by a nose although his style isn’t conducive to winning the Derby. He may get the benefit of a “pace meltdown”, if Line of David and Conveyance go for the lead from the start at any cost and are pushed by a few other horses into setting well above average early fractions. Another concern besides his late closing style is that Ice Box has not raced in six weeks and historically that is a disadvantage as most Derby winners have had their most recent prep races three to five weeks from the Derby. Noble's Promise would seem to have some distance limitations in his pedigree that could hinder his chances to win at the classic distance of one mile and one-quarter; nevertheless he may be good for a share of the purse by finishing in the top three. He lost his best chance to achieve the tactical position from which he could have been successful in the Arkansas Derby when he was interfered and lost considerable grounds, finally settling for fifth position. Jackson Bend has finished second in three straight races, all three of his preparatory races leading to the Derby and has never been worse than second in nine career starts. Jackson Bend was beaten by Eskendereya with ease in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Wood Memorial, but with Eskendereya out of the race, Jackson Bend certainly may at least continue his runner-up ways in the Derby. Mission Impazible earned the respect amongst equines after winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in his most recent start. Continuing his pattern of improving figures and with more reasons for improvement to be found as the distances increase, Mission Impazible may be a mark below the top group of contenders. Dublin has finished second or third in all three of his recent Derby preparatory races, which put him in the section of also-rans but cannot be ignored as we have to consider all the betting opportunities this race presents. If you plan to witness the great event in the DERBY BOX, please be informed that the seating area synonymous with the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs is Millionaires Row. So just what is Millionaires Row and what it the difference in what is listed as Skye Terrace? Until the massive 2004 construction took place at Churchill, the term Millionaires Row was just a nickname. It was not officially used on tickets or seating charts. All Seats on 4th, 5th and 6th floors were called the Skye Terrace. When they remodelled they decided to officially name the new section up there Millionaires IV (4th floor) and Millionaires VI (6th floor). What remained or the “old sections of 4th, 5th and 6th floors was labelled Sky Terrace and were identified by sections (412, 413, 613, 614 etc). On Derby Day you’ll likely see Bo Derek, Michael Jordan, Dennis Hopper or Donald Trump in either area. For my Indian friends who won’t be able to watch it on-site, glue onto CNN as it is definitely an international event to cherish.