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Will Lookin At Lucky Be Lucky Again?
By Guru Badrain | 28 Apr 2010 |
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We are now just 3 days out from the date of the 2010 Kentucky Derby on May 1st at 6:24 pm and the betting odds have shifted once again for the 136th running. Everything can change in a blink of the eye before the 5:00 PM Kentucky Derby post time, but right now here are the odds:
Rule is out and the filly Devil May Care and Jackson Bend are in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday he wasn't pleased with the way Rule worked at Churchill Downs. The trainer instead will point the 3-year-old colt to the Preakness on May 15.
Pletcher gained another Derby starter Monday when owner John Greathouse said he's entering Devil May Care in the Derby. He'll likely have four starters in the Derby and could add a fifth if Interactif runs. A decision on Interactif will be made soon.
For the second straight year, the Kentucky Derby favourite will not be in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. If you remember, I Want Revenge was pulled prior to the 2009 running and now Eskendereya is out of the 136th Kentucky Derby.
The horse most folks thought would not only win the race, but also become a Triple Crown champion, will take time off due to swelling in his left front leg.
Run For The Roses
The Kentucky Derby is a Grade I stakes race for three year-old thoroughbred horses, held annually in Louisville, Kentucky on the first Saturday in May, capping the two-week-long Kentucky Derby Festival. The race is one and a quarter miles at Churchill Downs. Colts and geldings carry 126 pounds and fillies 121 pounds. The race is known in the United States as "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports" for its approximate duration, and is also called "The Run for the Roses" for the blanket of roses draped over the winner. It is the first leg of thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown and typically draws around 155,000 fans. It is the longest continuously running event in the U.S. Heavy rain is forecasted for the Louisville area beginning late Friday and continuing into Derby Day. The National Weather Service is calling for a 60 per cent chance of showers Saturday, with a rain accumulation of 1 1/2 to 2 inches.
Even under wet conditions of a crowd well in excess of 100,000 is expected. Leading up to horse racing’s premier event, the Kentucky Derby this May, there were close to 60 prep races between the beginning of the year and last weekend that not only shaped this year’s field, but provides a good idea as to which horses will go off as the favorite to win the Derby and possibly go on to earn the Triple Crown by winning the Preakness and the Belmont as well.
Trainer Todd Pletcher made the announcement early Sunday morning after speculation that something was amiss the previous day when Eskendereya galloped over the track instead of partaking in a recorded workout. Pletcher now moves forward without his top colt, and his 0-for-24 Derby record could soar even higher if one of his other horses fails to bring home the roses. To that end, look for him to send the filly Devil May Care to take Eskendereya's place when entries are drawn. She'll most likely to be cross-entered in the Kentucky Oaks, but will run against the colts unless she draws an unfavourable post.
Devil May Care won the Bonnie Miss Stakes in her last start at Gulfstream Park, the same day Ice Box finished first in the Florida Derby. The filly ran her final 3/8 in 38 seconds with a slow 13 3/5 final furlong, while Ice Box came home in 36 4/5, including a 12 2/5 final eighth. Quite a difference! The injury to Eskendereya is a huge blow to everyone associated with the horse. In addition, it will lower the odds of every other Derby entrant. Lookin At Lucky will now go off around 3-1 while Sidney's Candy's odds could plummet from 7-1 all the way down to 9-2.
Lookin At Lucky began his career with four consecutive wins, including three in Stakes Company. He didn't dazzle the crowd with open-length triumphs and the fields he knocked off were decidedly weak, but the son of Smart Strike was extremely professional on the racetrack, measuring his opponents through the stretch and drawing clear at the wire.
Sent off as the 2-1 favourite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Lookin At Lucky was caught very wide into the first turn from post 13 and was well back early on for the first time in his young career. Still, he rallied late to finish second, just a head back of Vale of York.
Instead of resting over the winter, trainer Bob Baffert sent him into the Cash Call Futurity, the same race that his Pioneerof the Nile won the year before. Lookin At Lucky disposed of six others that day in what was arguably his most impressive two-year-old victory.
His 2010 debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park was noteworthy as it marked his first career start on conventional dirt. In the backstretch, he clipped heels with Noble's Promise but was still able to pass that rival in deep stretch for the victory.
Lookin At Lucky was far from lucky at the Kentucky Derby post position draw on Wednesday at Churchill Downs, drawing the inside post, considered a highly disadvantageous starting position against a full field of 20 horses. He was installed as the 3-1 favourite. It’s hard to gauge how good Lookin At Lucky is. He's had to deal with tons of adversity in his last four races with only two wins to show for his efforts. Moreover, his pedigree doesn't go for 1 1/4-miles. On the other hand, he's the most accomplished horse in the race with six victories (three of the Grade I variety) and one can never dismiss a Bob Baffert-trained colt in the Derby.
Lookin At Lucky is a must use in all exotic wagering but it's doubtful he'll be able to overtake Sidney's Candy for the win.
Another California shipper, Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy, will start from the far outside in post 20. But being a front-runner and well clear of most of the other speed horses, his draw did not appear as unfavourable as that of Lookin At Lucky. He was made the 5-1 second choice on the morning line.
Do Not Miss The Other Runners
Endorsement owns the most impressive victory outside of California winning the Sunland Derby in track record time. Nevertheless, history has not been too kind to lightly-raced horses, save for Big Brown. The big difference between the 2008 Derby winner and Endorsement is Big Brown was the heavy 2-1 favourite while the son of Distorted Humor will be close to double digits.
It's a tall order to win the Kentucky Derby with just four career starts but Endorsement is talented enough to fill out the Trifecta (Tanala in India).
Awesome Act is another horse that in most years would be an automatic toss- out. Coming from off the pace to win the Gotham Stakes in early March, the son of Awesome Again was hailed as an upcoming star receiving a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort. However, don't be fooled by the number as he knocked off a very weak horse field. In fact, none of the other nine colts had ever won a two-turn graded stakes race.
His next start was a dud finishing almost 10 lengths behind Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial. Still, he didn't run all that badly considering he lost a shoe at the break and was under a stranglehold from jockey Julien Leparoux throughout most of the race.
There is a chance Awesome Act could be bet down to third choice since many Handicappers will forgive him for that performance. On the other hand, he looks to be quite a few notches below the top tier.
Ice Box, who showed his penchant for closing in the Florida Derby, could do the same since the chestnut colt is the lone stout closer in the field. His only loss since last October was an excuse-filled Fountain of Youth Stakes. The son of Pulpit has had three 1 1/8-mile races to get him ready for 10 furlongs, and Nick Zito, like Baffert, is a trainer that has won multiple Kentucky Derbies.
American Lion is a horse that might get caught up in the expected fast pace, but the WinStar Farm colt has twice shown an ability to win while stalking the lead. After a pair of losses at Santa Anita, trainer Eoin Harty sent him to Hawthorne where he blew away Yawanna Twist through the stretch to win the Illinois Derby.
Take away the two defeats on Pro-Ride (a surface he clearly didn't like) and American Lion looks just as good on paper as any of the secondary contenders. Plus, his odds will be much higher than those of Endorsement, Awesome Act and Ice Box.
Super Saver is another colt that could surprise. He's looked great in the mornings at Churchill Downs, the track where he overpowered eight rivals in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. Also, this will be his third race off the layoff.
Even though Super Saver hasn't won in 2010, he finally showed he can rate off the lead, sitting behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby. And while he couldn't get past the winner through the stretch, he's capable of improving at Churchill Downs, especially with Calvin Borel in the saddle.
Food for thought
The market is headed by Lookin At Lucky, a general 7-2 chance, with Sidney's Candy next best at around 5-1. Lookin At Lucky's trainer Bob Baffert does not agree with those prices though. He said: "My horse shouldn't be favourite. Sidney's Candy beat me by nearly five lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. He should be favourite."
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