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BANGALORE OAKS GR.2

By Maj. Srinivas Nargolkar (Retd.) | 06 Jan 2012 | BANGALORE


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They say that what happens twice, must happen a third time. Some aver that things happen in threes. On Saturday, the Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2 should offer further proof of how true these aphorisms are. The two Oaks - one at Calcutta and the other at Hyderabad - have been won by daughters of Alnasr Alwasheek - In the Spotlight and Forever Glory - both of whom are out of Placerville mares. Southern Bay, who is bred on the very same cross, is poised to complete the hat-trick.

In The Spotlight won spectacularly at Calcutta while Forever Glory had a tougher task at Hyderabad which she completed convincingly if not emphatically. When it is taken into account that In The Spotlight was defeated twice at Mysore by Southern Bay (Alnasr Alwasheek - Priceless Glory) before her three-Classics-in-a-row at Calcutta, it becomes obvious that Dr.M.A.M.Ramswamy's Ganapathy-trained filly shapes like the proverbial good thing. She was a facile winner of the Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2 on her last start and should have no problems in enabling her owner to complete a neat round dozen of victories in the race.

Southern Bay, rated 100, is almost a distance clear of her rivals assuming that they all run true to their ratings. Some of them may not because none of the nine fillies have yet tackled the Oaks distance. In the case of Southern Bay, her pedigree indicates that she will revel over the trip. She is first live foal of her unraced dam who is a full-sister to Smart Chieftan, Classical Act, Southern Empire and Change of Luck - all Gr.1 winners and all winners of a St. Leger over 2800 m. - so she should be at her best running over 2400 m. On form and pedigree Southern Bay has little to worry about.

The quest would hence be to sift the fillies who will occupy the minor placings rather than look for one who can lower her colours. Trainer Padmanabhan, whose regimen is centred around the Classics, is represented by a duo consisting of Loveatfirstsight (Ivan Denisovich - Flintstone) and Nearness of You (Diffident - Forest Fantasy).  The common factor between the two of them is that while their dams have what it takes to produce an Oaks winner, there is no such certainty about their sires. Forest Fantasy is a winner of the Indian Turf Invitation Cup (2400m) and though Flintstone did not win she is a half-sister to a black-type winner in France over 2000 m. and their dam a half-sister to a St. Leger winner in Japan. Nearness of You's half-sister Leave It To Me, a winner of the Golconda St. Leger, Gr.2, was by Placerville. Interestingly, Leave It To Me's older full brother Spectacular Quest was only a sprinter-miler, much classier than his staying sister. Loveatfirstsight is the first foal of her dam. Most of the "gets" of Diffident are more comfortable over shorter distances though he has sired a winner of the Stayers' Cup, Gr.1 while Ivan Denisovich was a sprinter-miler. So both the wards of Padmanabhan fall in the category of "could" stay rather than "will" stay.   Even if Loveatfirstsight or Nearness of You is able to get the trip, both of them have plenty to find on form. Loveatfirstsight's last race was more than 100 days ago while Nearness of You hasn't been on the board in her two starts this term.

The second best rated filly in the field is Lad Lady (Razeen - Tarnished Lady) who has raced exclusively at Mysore so far. She has four wins from eight starts but was she was a well beaten sixth in Poonawalla Mysore Derby, Gr.1 where Southern Bay was a good eight lengths plus in front and even At The Helm finished ahead of her. Lad Lady's Honour and Glory half-sister Gloriosa won the Calcutta Monsoon Derby. A training setback meant that Gloriosa missed the whole of the winter Classic season; their dam was second in the Coaching Club American Oaks, Gr.1 at Belmont Park, U.S.A. so Lad Lady, being by Razeen, should not be lacking in stamina.  

The filly with the best form this term -- apart from Southern Bay -- is At The Helm (China Visit - Perfect Mover) who won both her starts, beating Forever Glory in the first of them albeit receiving 5.5 kgs. That she was entered and run in the Bangalore Fillies' Championship Stakes Gr.1, Kingfisher Derby Bangalore Gr.1, K.R.O.A. Mysore 1000 Guineas Gr.3 and the Poonawalla Mysore Derby Gr.1 suggests that she was always held in high esteem and her runs in those four races, though unplaced, were not entirely disappointing. Her two recent wins have been hard-fought and in both of them she finished ahead of Radical Attraction (International - Rainbow Vision) but taking the weight difference and the margins into consideration, there was not much between the two. Southern Bay has scalped Radical Attraction earlier during the Bangalore Summer season and subsequent form lines do not presage the Neil Darashah-trained filly as likely to reverse that.

Only one filly has so far won over 2000 m. and that is Arjun Mangalorkar's Dancerella (Sunday Doubt - One Uttama). It is obvious that Dancerella has inherited less from her speedy sire and taken more after the bottom half of the pedigree. Her grandam Desert Rose was a winner of the longest race in India - The Northumberland Trophy, L, over 3200 m., while Majestic Brave - a half-brother to Desert Rose won the Stayers' Classic, Gr.1. On the other hand, Dancerella was last of the six runners in Southern Bay's Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.1. 

Argentum (Sunday Doubt - Arristo) is from a much speedier family and will surely run out of puff while Saganaki (Glory of Dancer - Sober Mind) has better staying credentials. Argentum and Saganaki are rated in the 40s and if one them were to win, there will be a huge furore.

PAST THE POST

At The Helm is by China Visit out of a Razeen mare. This is the cross which has also produced Moonlight Romance and Xisca who dominated the Classics last year. Some people have averred to this cross as a "nick". A "cross" becomes a "nick" when statistically it shows a greater strike rate. China Visit has had, including the 2008 crop, 206 foals. He has sired 10 black-type winners so his overall strike rate is 4.88. 133 of those 206 foals are out of Razeen mares and they have produced 5 black-type winners at a sktrike rate of 3.76 which is below his overall strike rate so the China Visit/Razeen cross cannot be termed a "nick". In fact, China Visit has 2 black-type winners from only 6 foals out of Treasure Leaf mares (strike rate of 33.33) and this would surely have qualified as a "nick" had the sample been large enough.

Alnasr Alwasheek's previous winner of the race, Icebreaker, was also out of a daughter of Placerville. Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy. Trainer R.R. Byramji and the Poonawalla Group head their respective tables, all three of them having won the race 11 times. Razeen and Placerville are tied with three winners each. Among the jockeys, Vasant Shinde is at the top with six winners, one more than his nephew B. Prakash. Astana's time of 2.32.7, established in 1998 still holds good. Surprisingly, the slowest time on record (2.45.3) stands in the name of Cordon Bleu who was no slouch for she later won the McDowell Indian Derby, Gr.1 in record time.  The reason for the slow time was that there were just three runners and they marked time till the bend!