Meteorology is a science; still, the weather forecasters get it wrong every now and then. Some aspects of economics are a science and yet no one can predict with complete certainty the fluctuations of the Dow Jones and Hang Seng indices. While genetics is a science, Thoroughbred breeding is an inexact science and pedigrees are the cornerstones of that science. A pedigree assumes importance, if the breeder is so inclined, when a mating is arranged. A pedigree is one of essential ingredients that determines the price of the resultant offspring when it comes up for sale. A pedigree is like a route chart for the trainer in mapping out the campaign of that offspring when it goes into training. Thereafter, what the horse has actually inherited starts to manifest and the pedigree fades into the background. It surfaces again when the horse ventures into hitherto unattempted distances.

Some time ago, the relevance of performance, class and stamina was discussed and the example of Siachen and Moonlight Romance was quoted. We are back to a similar situation for the Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2 on Saturday. In the field of eight fillies, only one (Sussex Downs) has won beyond a mile and only two have raced beyond it so far. As far as class is concerned, Jersey Girl, the Bangalore1000 Guineas, Gr.2 victress, is clearly superior to others. Earlier, she had run third in the Bangalore Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.1 (to Vijays Pride and Portia who have franked the form in Mumbai) and the Mysore 1000 Guineas, Gr.3. Rated 84, she has a useful lead over Snow Bird (76) and Sussex Downs (70)  with Auburn Beauty, State Secret and Ratham all in the 60s  and Cocktail Circuit and I Say in the low 50s.

Jersey Girl and Auburn Beauty are very closely related. While the former is by Burden of Proof out Chilli Girl by Tejano out of Asian Lady, the latter is by Tejano out of Auberge by Burden of Proof out of Asian Lady. The next dam Birthday Girl won nine Classics including the South India Derby, Gr.1. The conundrum here Asian Lady whose full-sister Amazing Bay won the McDowell Indian Derby, Gr.1, Kingfisher Indian Oaks, Gr.1 and McDowell Indian St. Leger, Gr.1. Asian Lady herself won seven races but a mile was her longest winning distance. Though full-sisters, they had inherited different genes and had different aptitudes. The short-running characteristic of Asian Lady has found expression in her descendents who have all excelled at a mile or less with only an odd victory beyond that. One cannot assert with conviction that Jersey Girl and Auburn Beauty will get the mile and half trip in a truly run race though they may. (Incidentally,Auburn Beauty was treated for 'exhaustion' after the Bangalore 1000 Guineas, Gr.2).

Ratham (Hurricane State - Star of the Crop) is a half-sister to Ridgeway who was a close third to Southern Bay in the Vijay Textiles Golconda Derby, Gr.1 last year. Her dam won the Golconda Oaks, Gr.2 in race record time which still stands. The next two dams are Follow The Star and Chaitanya Ratham, both Classic winners over 2400 m. There is class and stamina in Ratham's dam line. Ratham finished dead last in Jersey Girl's Bangalore1000 Guineas, Gr.2 though she bounced back to win in mid-December. She is from the last crop of the Miswaki horse Hurricane State whose first seven crops were very average though this year he has Malpensa. Hurricane State won both his races at 1200 m. He was certainly bred to get longer distances; his half-brother Pleasantly Perfect, who had a higher dosage index, won the Dubai World Cup, Gr.1. Given her dam line, Ratham should stay the distance and is the kind of filly with which her trainer Jaggy Dhariwal is apt to spring a surprise. Beware, though. Ratham has broken a blood vessel once before.

Another one to consider is State Secret (Placerville - Indistinto), a half-sister to Incognito, a winner of the Forbes Breeders' Juvenile Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 over a mile. Placerville has sired half a dozen winners of the Indian St. Leger,Gr.1 and all of them had stout damlines. Placerville is not prepotent for stamina; he adds class to the existing stamina. The tail-female line of State Secret is a classy one, excelling in the immediate generations upto a mile with stamina back in further removes. While State Secret could get the trip what one can be certain of is that her trainer would have prepared her well for the race and will have his tactical plans in place.

Cocktail Circuit (Cahill Road - Late Nite Martini) and I Say (Danehill Star - Pamela Bordes) have plenty to find on pure form. Cocktail Circuit's dam was a tough cookie, a winner of 16 races upto the typical American distance of 1700 m. She had six foals abroad and all of them are winners. Cahill Road, winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes, Gr.1 over 1800 m. is a full-brother to Unbridled. While Unbridled has been an outstanding stallion, Cahill Road has proved disappointing. Cocktail Circuit's immediate generations are rather 'light' though she traces to an excellent tap-root. I Say and Ratham both descend from the Kings Barn mare Moon Shine; however, the branch to which I Say belongs has been moderate. I Say's sire Danehill Star was a sprinter who stood as a stallion for four years in Australia. I Say is from his second crop born in India.

Two fillies have been pitched in as final entries - Snow Bird (Oath - X Factor) from Hyderabad and Sussex Downs (Sussex - Dangerous Diva). As final entries, they will be fully on their mettle and could run a decent race; however, their pedigrees, which have short-running dam lines, suggest that they could find it hard to win. Oath, the only Epsom Derby winner ever to come to India, may have been expected to be a stamina influence. The fact is that while he stood in Japan he sired mostly speedy sorts though he did have a filly which placed in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), Gr.1. Dr. Ramaswamy will be hoping that Snow Bird is a similar aberration. Snow Bird is a winner of four races but yet to venture beyond a mile.

Oath stands at Pratap Stud and now so does Sussex.  In the spring of 2004, Newmarket work watchers had inked names of two Danehill colts. One was North Light who went on to win the Epsom Derby and the other was Sussex. Sussex broke down after his only start in Godolphin colours and came to Badal Stud in Punjab. Ms. Ameeta Mehra sent the Razeen mare Dangerous Diva to Badal Stud as a 'test case' because she had brought out Multidimensional, a son of Danehill. Like Sussex Downs, Multidimensional's four winners so far are all out of Razeen mares. The Yellow God mare Amber Forest has established a Classic Usha Stud family. Amber Forest had two outstanding daughters in Blue Ice and Snow. The Blue Ice branch has a little more stamina than the Snow stirps. Blue Ice herself won the South India Oaks, Gr.2 while her daughter Santorini Star annexed the Kingfisher Indian Oaks, Gr.1. It's over three years since Darius Byramji saddled a Classic winner. As Sussex Downs belongs to the Blue Ice branch, the filly could get the trip and end her master's Classic draught.

PAST THE POST

The very first Bangalore Oaks in 1974 was won by Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy's chestnut filly Air Hostess (Denier - Sky Flight). That was her fifth Classic victory and she was to add one more to her kitty to end up with a figure of half a dozen Classics. But for being defeated by Prince Ardent in the South India 2000 Guineas, Air Hostess would have emulated Star Haven, another of Dr. Ramaswamy's fillies, by winning all the five South India Classics.

That, however, would not have given her a unique achievement. Her place in the annals of the Indian Turf is assured by the fact that she is, at least so far, the only horse to win two Classics in a dead-heat and it happened in her first and last Classic runs. The first was in 1973 in the Bangalore Fillies' Trial Stakes. She was then owned by M/s. Sv. A. Arunachalam and N. Dwarkadas and had won just one race previously at Chennai. A 10/1 chance, an upset looked very much on the cards when Geyer shot her shot her to front entering the final stages of the race. Jockey Stanley had other ideas. He galvanised the odds-on favourite Fire Haven into overdrive and that filly, owned by the Dasaprakash Brothers, flew on the outside to force a dead-heat. Mr. Sv. A. Arunachalam's share was then bought by Dr. Ramaswamy.

In her second year's racing, Air Hostess won the South India 1000 Guineas, South India Oaks, South India Derby and Bangalore Oaks. She was a half-money favourite to win the South India St. Leger. There was a bit of a deja vu about that race. As in the Bangalore Fillies' Trial Stakes, Air Hostess was leading comfortably approaching the winning post when Wally Swinburn swooped with Rock's Son to force a photo-finish. Once again, the camera failed to separate the runners and a dead-heat was declared. Air Hostess, who was ridden by Ray Still that year, remained in training for another year, won 13 races in all and then retired to stud. She had six foals at Poonawalla Farms none of which was as good as her.

There is a quaint story concerning the dam of Air Hostess. In the mid-1960s, Lt. Col. Kishen Singh, an ace polo player who was member of the Indian team which won the Polo World Cup, was in England. A friend of his had asked him to buy a broodmare. One day at Cowdray Park, Lt. Col Kishen Singh happened to glance at an issue of Horse & Hound and found an advertisement for a Thoroughbred mare called Sky Flight for sale for 500 guineas. He noted that Sky Flight's dam was already in India as a broodmare at Kunigal Stud. That was good enough for him. He called the number given in the advertisement and a deal was struck for 400 guineas !  That's how the dam of Air Hostess came to India.