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DAWN APPROACH AND TORONADO CLASH IN 2000 GUINEAS

By Anil Mukhi | 03 May 2013 |


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It's that time of year – a weekend to savour with the first of the classics being contested on both sides of the Atlantic. Saturday sees the 205th running of the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in England, while a few hours later the 139th Kentucky Derby will be contested in Louisville, Kentucky. On Sunday there is more action at Newmarket with the 200th Qipco 1000 Guineas being down for decision. 

This piece will focus on the English races – there will be another preview tomorrow for the "Run For The Roses" in the USA.

Ground conditions so often play a part in the results of races, hence it would be appropriate to begin with the weather forecast which is for fine conditions to prevail on Saturday, although a bit cool at 16 degrees Celsius, with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday should be more of the same, albeit slightly warmer.

As many as a dozen rivals have chosen to tackle champion two-year-old Dawn Approach (by New Approach) in the 2000 Guineas over the straight mile. The Jim Bolger-trained chestnut, now in the ownership of Godolphin, will be making his seasonal debut when reappearing in public after a lapse of 203 days, but that has not fazed the Master of Coolcullen, who said: “We’ve had a clear run with him since the Dewhurst last year, no hiccups”. Dawn Approach, rated 126p by Timeform, annexed all six of his races last year, including the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes on the same course, and is the favourite at 5 to 4 with his regular partner Kevin Manning in the saddle. If he has trained on, the colt must surely be right up there at the finish.

Perhaps because the public choice tends to race in laid-back fashion, his talented stablemate, Leitir Mor (by Holy Roman Emperor), is scheduled to be in the line-up with the aim of keeping the pace honest. Interestingly, Bolger has never won the 2000 Guineas in England, though he went agonizingly close through Dawn Approach's sire, New Approach, in 2008 when only the nostril of Henrythenavigator intervened.

The last-named hailed from the busy Co. Tipperary yard of Aidan O'Brien, who goes into the race with a three-pronged challenge. Confounding expectations, stable jockey Joseph O'Brien – seen to good effect astride Centrestage at Mahalakshmi earlier this year – has elected to partner Cristoforo Colombo, who will be outfitted with sheepskin cheekpieces to help him concentrate. Also a son of the aforementioned Henrythenavigator, O'Brien's mount is quoted at 8 to 1.

Given that the trainer has taken home the silverware on offer half a dozen times in the past 15 years, the chances of his trio cannot be discounted. His other runners are the highly-touted Mars (by Galileo), who will have the services of Seamie Heffernan and who is aiming to emulate Golan by trying to win this race on only his second start, and stablemate George Vancouver (another by Henrythenavigator), who is to be steered by the underrated Colm O'Donoghue.

A more serious challenge to Dawn Approach comes from the in-form stables of veteran Richard Hannon, who has been poaching dozens of handicaps and conditions races each year but has endured a classic drought lasting 23 years. Back in 1990 he had sent out Tirol, destined many years later to stand in India at the Capricorn Stud near Pune, to victory in the 2000 Guineas. Now he is hoping the unbeaten and very scopy Toronado (by High Chaparral) will deliver the goods for his patron, Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad al Thani.

Hannon's contender, to be ridden by his son-in-law Richard Hughes, is believed to be in 'probably the form of his life'. Judging by the stable optimism and his recent form – Toronado trounced his opposition over course and distance in the Craven Stakes on April 18th – the East Everleigh-based colt will also go close and probably represents better value for punters at 9 to 4 than Dawn Approach. Incidentally, Hannon has also left in recent winner Van Der Neer (by Dutch Art), a 20 to 1 shot, who will be steered by William Buick.

Most of the remaining runners are available at 66 to 1 or higher, so it only remains to mention that European Free Handicap winner Garswood (by Dutch Art), aiming for a quick Newmarket double, has significant support at 11 to 1, while Moohajim (by Cape Cross) has the semblance of a following at 20 to 1. A bold run by the last-named would please the Equus Stud team no end, as they own his dam.

Over to the fillies, where 18 are left in for the Qipco 1000 Guineas at the time of writing.

The winter favourite for this classic, Godolphin's unbeaten Certify (by Elusive Quality) is a notable absentee on account of being banned from racing as one of the doped horses in the Godolphin fiasco (not that she was certain to win – last year the similarly unbeaten Discourse and Lyric Of Light from the same stable turned out to be dismal flops in the classic).

The top-notch Juddmonte operation deserves the epithet "top-notch" because it employs the very best professionals to produce high-class thoroughbreds and to develop them to the peak of their inherent ability.

Amongst its many skilled trainers is the incomparable Sir Henry Cecil who has sent out no less than 25 classic winners. Despite ill-health, he masterminded a brilliant campaign for Juddmonte's Frankel, the highest-rated horse worldwide in at least 70 years, if not in the entire history of the thoroughbred.

For the 1000 Guineas, Cecil has the favourite, Hot Snap (by Pivotal). He is of the opinion that the 5 to 2 choice has an advantage as she has experience of the track and is in great recent form – she scored in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes on April 17th – and also because she has already essayed a mile – when winning on debut at Kempton Park last year. "The mile will suit her better and hopefully the experience of the Nell Gwyn will have brought her on,"  he said.

Juddmonte's Irish-trained Big Break (by Dansili), though left in at the moment, is a certain defector, as it is felt she needs a bit more time and some "cut in the ground" so the French equivalent is her likely target.

Ireland will not go without a representative, though, as Ballydoyle has supplemented Moth (by Galileo) , easy winner of a maiden at the Curragh last month, at the stupendous cost of £30,000 (Rs.25 lakhs). She could be accompanied on the journey over from Cashel by the much higher-rated Magical Dream (by Galileo) and Snow Queen (by Danehill Dancer). Of course, O'Brien's judgement must be respected – he feels the best has not yet been seen so far of his final entry. Moreover he has trained a couple of previous winners of this race, including last year's victress, Homecoming Queen, so knows what it takes.

Runner-up to Hot Snap in the Nell Gwyn, Richard Hannon's Sky Lantern (by Red Clubs) will continue her association with Richard Hughes. Having recorded a rating of over 100 at all six of her starts, she is consistency personified and should have a bold show. As in the 2000 Guineas, Hannon is double-handed here, his second runner being Maureen (by Holy Roman Emperor) for whom he has engaged French ace Olivier Peslier.  The rider voiced his opinion: "Mr. Hannon is a great trainer and if he's running her she must have a chance".

It's not only a rider from France who will display his wares on the Guineas stage. Peslier's fellow Gallic professional, Mikel Delzangles, has selected his progressive ward, What A Name (by Mr. Greeley), to be his first-ever runner in the 1000 Guineas. By way of preparation he gave her an outing in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte last month, which she won, earning a quote of 9 to 2 here. "I am very pleased with her and she has improved since winning the Prix Imprudence", he added. Christophe-Patrice Lemaire has ridden her in all her five previous starts.

One runner not mentioned hitherto might well give the favourite more than she can handle. That is Just The Judge (by Lawman), who propelled herself into classic consideration after securing victories on all 3 of her starts last year. Her trainer, Charlie Hills, has judiciously trained her up to the race, sending her from Lambourn across to Newmarket last week for a spin by way of familiarising her with the track. Her rider, Jamie Spencer, not seen to best effect during his short stint in India last winter, would be more in his element here.

In the final analysis, none of the runners has displayed form vastly in advance of its rivals, so it boils down to a question of personal preference. It's worth remembering that nothing shorter than 16 to 1 has triumphed on the track since Natagora obliged in 2008.