The Earls of Derby have had an enormous impact on the Thoroughbred. For example, fully a quarter of the 36 names found most frequently (ten or more times) in the first two generations of the five British Classic winners – along with the winners of the two most important open races in Europe, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe – from 1900 to 1989 raced for either the 16^th Earl or his son, Edward George Villiers Stanley.

What's more, their ancestor, the 12^th Earl, is credited with the founding of the Classic race that bears the family name. First contested in 1780, the Derby has its 234^th renewal down for decision on Saturday, June 1^st, at Epsom Downs in Surrey, not far south of London, England. Once again sponsored by Investec, the race is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. BST (8:30 p.m. in India).  Exactly one dozen three-year-old colts have accepted for the 1 mile 4 furlongs and 10 yards event, worth a total of £1,379,500 (about Rs.11.85 crores).

The race evokes more than the usual level of interest this year on two grounds, namely that: (a) it has an outstanding runner who towers above his contemporaries, and (b) that runner may not stay, in which case he might fade away like a pricked balloon. Before coming to the story of Dawn Approach (by New Approach), ironically a son and grandson of Epsom Derby winners, it's interesting to find that Britain's trainers have been able to muster a mere three participants, and the top five British schoolers of 2012 (ranked by prize money), namely Sir Henry Cecil, John Gosden, Richard Hannon, Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey in that order, are not represented.

Nor are any of the Godolphin operation's private trainers to be found – of course, Mahmood Al Zarooni is suspended for eight years (he recently withdrew his appeal against the quantum of the sentence so seems likely to fade away quietly into the desert sands), while Saeed bin Suroor has nothing good enough to take part. Not that Godolphin's colours will be missing: they are sported by none other than Dawn Approach, the unbeaten Classic winner of seven races from as many starts, who is trained in Ireland, as are six of his rivals. The first-ever German challenger and a serious French invader constitute the remainder of the field.

As usual, the fickle British weather could play a part. It has been wet of late in England and more rain is forecast for Friday, although Derby Day ought to be dry. How much the ground will affect each runner will be known only when they act on it! Certainly soft ground would be against come-from-behind types like Dawn Approach, who is aiming to be the first to inscribe the Godolphin silks in the Derby scroll of honour.

Since his bloodless victory in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas last month, the chestnut colt, whose dam is by a sprinter in Phone Trick, is reported to have been thriving. “He has come out of the Guineas very well and his performance in the Guineas was spectacular. I couldn’t be happier with the horse and I have no doubt he is improving” said his handler, Ireland's Jim Bolger.

However, it seems clear that even as astute a horseman as Bolger would probably not have run him here over the stiff 12 furlongs trip had he not been partly owned by Godolphin. He admitted that one would never know whether he stayed unless he tried the trip. Last year he went on record to state that "It will only be his class and temperament that will enable him to get ten furlongs". Ten, mind you, not twelve…..  And it has been reported that the colt was not even an original entry for the Derby – he was supplemented earlier this year. Finally, it would be rare indeed for a colt speedy and precocious enough to have scored over 5 furlongs in March 2012, when he was not even two by the calendar, to see out the Derby trip. 

Heavy wagering means Dawn Approach is already an evens favourite and he may possibly start at "odds on". His usual pilot, Kevin Manning, will be at the controls and while the colt's sheer superiority means that he ought to prevail on pure form, he does not represent value at his short price. He would be even less worthy of a wager should it rain. Although, since it's said to be darkest just before dawn, things ought to brighten as dawn approaches, n'est ce pas?

Finding a rival with obvious credentials to down the public choice is a tricky proposition. There are so many different paths and stories to choose from. Strength in numbers is one approach that has borne dividends. For example, come Epsom Derby time and the latest Ballydoyle team springs into full-fledged action. Each year the Coolmore outfit has fielded multiple runners, many of them unexposed, improving types. This year trainer Aidan O'Brien sends forth a team of five, hoping to repeat last year's success which came through the far more obvious Camelot. Magician (by Galileo), regarded as very special at home, is not part of the assault quintet, as he is being kept for Royal Ascot

In another year, Battle Of Marengo (by Galileo) – named after a conflict between French troops (under Napoleon) and Austrian forces – might have started as the hot favourite, seeing as how he is coming into the race with an almost unblemished record, i.e. off five consecutive wins from his last six starts. The presence of Green Desert and Mr. Prospector in his pedigree provides a leavening of speed blended into the traditional stamina provided by Galileo. He has followed the same route leading up to the race as a  couple of Aidan O'Brien's previous Derby winners – Galileo and High Chaparral – namely by taking in the Ballysax Stakes and the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes. Joseph O'Brien has opted to ride him in preference to his stablemates and the market has opted to make him the second choice at 5 to 1. One cannot neglect him in any appraisal of the race or combination wager.

Festive Cheer (by Montjeu), at 40 to 1 with Seamie Heffernan, and Flying The Flag (by Galileo), at 100 to 1 with Colm O'Donoghue, appear to have been left in to ensure a truly run race, at a pace that is designed to blunt Dawn Approach's attempts to conserve energy. Thus the Ballydoyle second string would appear to be Ruler Of The World (by Galileo). This lightly-raced colt was first seen on a racecourse only in 2013. Following a victorious debut, he was steered to victory in the Chester Vase, a significant trial, by Ryan Moore, who continues his association on the 8 to 1 chance.

The final piece in the jigsaw puzzle is provided by Mars, yet another by Galileo, who is to be guided by Richard Hughes. And a real puzzle it is: did O'Brien skip the Irish 2000 Guineas last week with him because he had a ready-made substitute in Magician? Or did he avoid that race – for which Mars held a realistic chance based on his Qipco 2000 Guineas run where he was finishing fast – because his trainer really fancied him better over further? Saturday will tell whether the longer trip can help the 14 to 1 candidate bridge the near nine-lengths leeway between him and the favourite.

In an exclusive comment for Indiarace, one of the Coolmore team volunteered the following information: "Battle of Marengo is in great form and will have no stamina worries. I think he is our best chance. I would fancy Ruler Of The World to run a huge race." 

Rounding out the Irish invasion is David Wachman's Galileo Rock, whose name is correctly suggestive of his paternal parent, the ubiquitous Galileo, of course! One of five by the sire, the 33 to 1 chance has it all to do and Wayne Lordan is the jockey who will attempt to pull off a huge upset. Collectively the seven Irish-trained runners will be attempting to secure the prize for the Emerald Isle for the fourth time in the past six years.

The continental challenge is spearheaded by the 15 to 2 Ocovango (by Monsun), whose sire has been having a great posthumous run of late with the likes of Maxios and Silasol. As has been pointed out on several occasions, champion French trainer Andre Fabre is never to be underestimated and has a live prospect in the unbeaten well-balanced brown. As he had done with Pour Moi, Fabre took the colt – along with retained rider Pierre Charles-Boudot – to Epsom for a preparatory spin, an experience that should stand them in good stead in the race itself. However, Prince Faisal's colt is drawn 1, a tricky spot to be in for the 20-year-old Boudot, who is bidding to emulate Mickael Barzalona by scoring on a Fabre-trained Prix Greffulhe winner on his first ride in the Derby.

Schooled in Germany by the vastly experienced Andreas Wohler, trainer also of Lomitas, Silvano and Paolini, Chopin (by Santiago) has been supplemented for the race, at a cost of £75,000, after having been bought by Qatar Racing Ltd. Although he is rated as "the best three-year-old by far in Germany", having won the last two of his three starts by wide margins, one does not really know how good the form lines are. That said, the connections are giving the 10 to 1 prospect every chance to succeed – they flew down intended rider Jamie Spencer to Dusseldorf, vanned the colt there from his base at Gutersloh, and worked him on the German track that most closely resembles Epsom in having an undulating surface and tight turns. Once again, connections have literally gone the extra mile to ensure an optimum performance. Expect a prolific composition from Chopin should soft ground prevail!

From the Yorkshire yard of Elaine Burke, Libertarian is another son of New Approach, but one who has far better chances of getting the trip as the product of a mare by stamina influence Darshaan. Whether he is good enough remains to be seen, but he did put up a creditable performance when annexing that recognised Derby trial, the Betfred Dante Stakes 16 days ago. On a line through his ward Trading Leather, who was second in that race, Bolger is sure to know how much of a threat the 16 to 1 chance, to be ridden by William Buick, poses. Not many from amongst the ranks of those unraced at two, as Libertarian was, have secured the prize at Epsom.

Should Mirsaale (by Sir Percy) show up with a chance a couple of furlongs out, he will no doubt be lustily cheered home by members of the bookmaking fraternity, who will be hoping for a 50 to 1 shocker. Even louder will be their shouts if the 500 to 1 Ocean Applause (by Royal Applause) scores. However, apart from the fact that he is a Thoroughbred with four legs, this colt has absolutely no credentials to be running here, having failed to post a rating higher than 47 in three starts this term!

Above all, the Epsom Derby is never won by a horse that cannot stay. If the further influences in his dam's pedigree – Pleasant Colony, Alydar and Sea-Bird – play a part, Dawn Approach will win – and win easily. Should the short-running stuff contributed by Phone Trick bubble to the fore, he will fade at the business end and the winner will emerge from something more certain to flourish over longer like the rather obvious Battle Of Marengo along with Ocavango, Chopin and Libertarian.