A pleasantly warm day is expected to greet the 19 runners that assemble at the starting gate for the most coveted prize in North American racing, the Gr.1 $2,000,000 added Kentucky Derby (presented by Yum! Brands). The 140^th renewal of the race is to be run over 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, in Louisville, Kentucky, on Saturday, May 3^rd. Restricted to three-year-olds, it is the eleventh event on a packed 13 race card and is scheduled to go off at 6:24 p.m. Eastern time (3:54 a.m. IST on Sunday, May 4^th). The card has already been published on this site, and the odds mentioned are those updated as on Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately the race has lost its second favourite in the shape of the Bob Baffert-trained Hoppertunity (by Any Given Saturday) due to a foot bruise. The defection of the No. 11 horse opened the door for the "also eligible" Pablo Del Monte (by Giant's Causeway), who would have had to start on the wide outside, but his connections decided against participating. As a result, the horses drawn from 1 to 10 have been moved one slot away from the rails, leaving gate no. 1 vacant and thereby giving the inside horse more room to avoid being hampered at the start.

From 1995 to 1999 only two trainers – D. Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert – hoisted the trophy. In the 14 years since, no trainer or owner has more than a solitary victory, although riders Calvin Borel (with three) and Kent Desormeaux (with two) can boast of repeat triumphs. Ten of the last 24 Kentucky Derby winners were coming off victories, nine off runner-up efforts and four off fourth-placed finishes. Only one – Unbridled – had been third prior to his success in the "Run for the Roses". Favourites have obliged thrice in the past seven years.

No runner from the 2011 crop has impressed so much visually as the vastly experienced California Chrome (by Lucky Pulpit), who will be making his eleventh career start. A true rags-to-riches runner, the imposing chestnut was bred by his owners from a mare they bought for just $8,000, which they bred to the unheralded Lucky Pulpit for a fee of $2,000. A chance remark that they were "dumb asses" to pursue this course of action led to the registration of the ownership entity DAP Racing, which stands for Dumb Ass Partners! Time will tell if the owners' decision to turn down an offer of $6,000,000 for a 51% share in the colt adds veracity to this title.

In California Chrome's favour is the fact that he has seemed utterly dominant in his prep races, crushing the opposition with his high cruising speed, generally employed at or near the front end. In fact, he has won his last four races by a total in excess of 24 lengths. Also, in the person of 77-year-old trainer Art Sherman he has in his corner a horseman of vast experience who was responsible, 59 years ago, for accompanying another dominant California-bred chestnut – the great Swaps – to Louisville as his exercise rider. Next, jockey Victor Espinoza has already been through the "circus" that is the Kentucky Derby more than once and has emerged victorious aboard War Emblem (in 2002). Finally, "CC" is drawn favourably in gate no. 5.

Against him are the facts that he has never raced outside California, not had a workout over the Churchill Downs surface, and will be facing for the first time a tenth furlong that has so often proved the downfall of many a speedy customer. It has also not helped that one of the owners has described the contest as a "done deal" – those who have been in racing long enough know only too well that one does not tempt fate! That said, the 5 to 2 public choice may well turn out to be another Secretariat in the making.

Who can beat the favourite? The Florida Derby winner, Constitution (by Tapit) is absent due to injury but the winners of the Gulfstream Park Derby, General A Rod (by Roman Ruler), the Wood Memorial Stakes, Wicked Strong (by Hard Spun), the Bluegrass Stakes, Dance With Fate (by Two Step Salsa), the Arkansas Derby, Danza (by Street Boss), the Sunland Derby, Chitu (by Henny Hughes) and the Louisiana Derby, Vicar's In Trouble (by Into Mischief) are all going to try and topple the public choice. They have been listed in approximate order of decreasing stamina. In other words, the first three ought to get the mile and a quarter trip, which might just prove to be a bridge too far for the last three named. 

General A Rod recently changed hands to the ownership of Starlight Racing & Skychai Racing LLC. The Michael Maker trainee has never been off the board and has the services of last year's winning rider Joel Rosario in the saddle. However, he has not yet proved able to put away serious opposition, as for example when only third in the Florida Derby, which is why he is at 27 to 1.

Wicked Strong, from the James Jerkens barn, will start widest of all with Rajiv Maragh astride. Wide posts did not stop the likes of Orb (drawn 16), I'll Have Another (drawn 19), and Animal Kingdom (drawn 16) in the past three years, so it is not impossible that the second favourite (at 9 to 1) could oblige. His running style is to lie some way off the pace and then to make a run within the last three furlongs.

Dance With Fate is being dismissed by some because his best form was demonstrated on a synthetic surface but he is an impressive physical specimen and has been working well at Churchill Downs. Veteran Corey Nakatani is there to guide the chocolate brown colt with the turn of foot, who hails from the barn of Peter Eurton and is around 16 to 1. He is drawn 12.

Danza is the son of a sprinter and seems to have been regarded as a short runner earlier in his career, which is why he started at 41 to 1 in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, despite his consistent record. Another who has been lighting up the chilly mornings at Churchill Downs, he appears to be on the upgrade and also to appreciate added ground, which is why he is the current third choice at around 10 to 1. One of four runners schooled by Todd Pletcher, he is to be ridden by Joe Bravo.

Following the defection of Hoppertunity, Chitu is Bob Baffert's only starter this year, and has Martin Garcia in charge in the riding department. With three wins and one second from four starts, he is sure to be in the mix if he gets the trip. It may be recalled that Mine That Bird had come into the Kentucky Derby off a fourth-placed effort in the Sunland Park Derby, and Chitu won that race. But this looks like a mountain too steep for the 26 to 1 chance to climb.

Can Vicar's In Trouble (Michael Maker/Rosie Napravnik) give owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey their coveted, and as yet elusive, Kentucky Derby victory? At 22 to 1, many more than this writer alone seem to think it will be difficult, despite his excellent record of 3 wins and 2 thirds from 5 starts. The Ramseys also have We Miss Artie (by Artie Schiller), with obvious turf/synthetic track affinity, in the field. That colt provides a rare chance to obtain 25 to 1 odds against a Pletcher/Castellano runner!

Only a few more runners need a mention. The cleverly-named Samraat (by Noble Causeway out of Little Indian Girl) won his first five starts but looked flat-footed when beaten into second in the Wood Memorial; Wildcat Red (by D'Wildcat) is game, tenacious and consistent but his front-running style may sap his energy at the all-important end; Medal Count (by Dynaformer) is sure to stay and has trained forwardly but might lack the necessary class; Tapiture (by Tapit) lost friends when fourth last time out but has the previous class to surprise (incidentally, his trainer won the Kentucky Oaks on Friday for the same connections); Candy Boy (by Candy Ride) will appreciate the distance and has the canny Gary Stevens aboard; and finally there is Ride On Curlin (by Curlin), who has the inestimable advantage of having Calvin Borel to pilot him, but has not yet displayed quite the level of form required to win.

On paper, it's hard to oppose California Chrome and he is taken to score. Wicked Strong could gain the edge if the favourite's stamina fails. Candy Boy, Chitu, Dance With Fate, Danza, General A Rod, Samraat and Vicar's In Trouble are the more consistent performers from amongst the rest.