It was the 12^th Earl of Derby who founded the mile-and-a-half classic race carrying his name that is the pre-eminent event for three-year-olds in Britain. That race is also the model for dozens of equivalent events around the globe including, of course, the Indian Derby (although some would argue that the Nilgiris Derby and North India Derby, both run at a metric mile, cannot truly be considered as qualifying for the distinction).

First contested way back in 1780, the Investec-sponsored Epsom Derby will be run for the 235^th time this Saturday, June 7^th, at Epsom Downs at 4:00 p.m. BST (8:30 p.m. in India). With a dire weather forecast on the anvil, it promises to be a messy affair. The Met Office in England has issued a "yellow warning", suggesting that there could be torrential rain in the environs of Epsom Downs on Saturday afternoon, with "flash floods, thunder and lightning" possible. Should the precipitation materialize, it could quite literally materially affect the outcome.  Back in 1911, an extreme weather situation killed 17 people and 4 horses just minutes after the Derby was run (and won by Sunstar).

As in the Oaks, seventeen three-year-olds had initially accepted for the 1 mile 4 furlongs and 10 yards event which, as Britain's richest race, is worth a total of £1,325,000 (about Rs.13.25 crores). Alas, Snow Sky (by Nayef) rapped a joint and has been removed from consideration. All the remaining 16 runners are colts (geldings are not permitted) and they include one supplementary entry. One hopes that concerns about the weather do not prompt a rash of fresh withdrawals!

Events during the remainder of 2014 will confirm whether Irish ace trainer Aidan O'Brien was right when he proclaimed that Australia (by Galileo) was the best he had trained. That high class colt was most recently third in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas in an unsatisfactorily-run race, where the field split into two halves. Only narrowly beaten there by Night Of Thunder and runner-up Kingman – who came back with a vengeance in the Irish 2000 Guineas – Australia is superbly-bred, being out of Vodafone Oaks heroine Ouija Board (by Cape Cross), whom this writer saw demolishing a high class field in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Churchill Downs back in 2006.

Should Australia make it to the post under reasonable weather conditions, there is every chance he can give the Coolmore partners and Aidan O'Brien their third consecutive Epsom Derby victory, a feat never before achieved. Many have pointed out that the consequence of the colt's being the victim of "a cult of personality", he is at too short a price based on his bare form. As a result he has eased slightly from odds-on to 11 to 8 at the time of writing. With more rain, he could ease some more. After all, O'Brien said: "We wouldn't like the ground to be soft for him." Joseph O'Brien is booked for the ride.

O'Brien (the trainer) could well score in the Derby even if Australia defects or runs below expectations as he has three other well-credentialed runners in the field. Rumoured to have accounted for Australia in a gallop at home, Geoffrey Chaucer (by Montjeu) is trying to give his sire a record fifth Epsom Derby winner. That superlative racehorse's previous heroes at Epsom have been Motivator, Authorized, Pour Moi and Camelot. The in-form Ryan Moore, who will steer the 7 to 1 Geoffrey Chaucer, has this cute habit of beating Joseph in classics despite riding so-called "second strings" – as he did in this very race last year through Ruler Of The World and on Marvellous in Ireland just 13 days ago.

Ruler Of The World came to Epsom via the Chester Vase and this year that route has been taken by O'Brien's Orchestra (by Galileo). The underrated Seamie Heffernan has been invaluable as a work rider for Coolmore and it would be only fitting if he could claim the honour of having ridden an Epsom Derby winner after twice being on the runner-up. The colt, who hung to the right at Chester, is bred on the same Galileo/Danehill cross as Frankel, Roderic O'Connor, etc., and has the scope to improve. He is the joint fourth favourite at 11 to 1.

Coming to O'Brien's final runner, this is yet another son of Galileo, Kingfisher. Although the experienced Colm O'Donoghue rides this, the colt has to show significant progress over the form he displayed when taking the Dee Stakes at Chester. With a name like that, it would indeed be interesting if one day this 66 to 1 chance did just enough in his career to warrant being imported to India to stand at Kunigal!

Joint second favourite for the Derby, at sevens, is the much-vaunted Kingston Hill, a grey son of Mastercraftsman. None of this hue has triumphed in this race since Airborne (in 1946) but that by itself means nothing. More pertinent is the fact that Roger Varian's colt is by a miler, so he is not certain to get the trip, although it helps that he is out of a mare by Rainbow Quest. Stable rider Andrea Atzeni will do duty on the colt who was unbeaten at two but blotted his copybook in the "Guineas" on his sole appearance this term.

A couple of others resident in the Emerald Isle are amongst the challengers. Trainer John Oxx is so fastidious, he will not send over a forlorn hope, so one must treat his judgement in fielding Ebanoran (by Oasis Dream) with respect. Here too there would be doubts about a son of a sprinter scoring at Epsom but Midday, by the same sire, almost did it in the Oaks and the Aga Khan-bred is from a truly stout family. Declan McDonogh will guide the 16 to 1 chance.

Likewise, when one points out that Fascinating Rock is by speedster Fastnet Rock, eyebrows might go up, but the Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen challenger, indistinguishable on form from Ebanoran, is coming off a hat trick of 10 furlong wins and goes very well under soft and heavy conditions. It remains to be seen if he handles the course, but 14 to 1 might prove generous if he does – and the promised rain arrives. Fastnet Rock did beget Mosheen, winner of the Crown Oaks at Flemington over 2500 metres.

An interesting contender is Arod (by Teofilo), at 14 to 1. This thrice-raced colt ran a fine race in the Betfred Dante Stakes at York when a fast-finishing second behind The Grey Gatsby, who subsequently franked the form by winning the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) last week. There was only about a length in it at the end, and with hoped-for improvement he can be right there. Jamie Spencer is the only rider the colt has ever known and a victory would be a big boost to Peter Chapple-Hyam and Qatar Racing Ltd.

The next under the microscope is the unbeaten 14 to 1 Western Hymn (by High Chaparral), from the Newmarket yard of John Gosden. He was a facile winner of the bet365 Sandown Classic Trial last time, a race which Gosden successfully used as a "prep" for Benny The Dip back in 1997. There are some doubts about his temperament and the trainer's recent Derby runners have not troubled the scorer. William Buick remains in charge.

Also from Gosden's yard comes the supplemented Romsdal (by Halling), who was just a nose behind Orchestra at Chester. At 20 to 1, he is the lesser-fancied of the schooler's pair of runners. Sources suggest he has not worked well in his preparatory gallops – but, as the Derby comes just once in a horse's life, his owner Princess Haya of Jordan has chosen to stump up the healthy sum of £75,000 by way of entry fee. Richard Hughes has been booked for the ride.

Princess Haya's husband, Sheikh Mohammed, owns the formidable Godolphin operation, and thus has interest in three of the runners. The best fancied of these, currently at 10 to 1, is True Story (by Manduro), such a disappointment when a tame third in the Betfred Dante Stakes last month. With Kieren Fallon's rise in the Godolphin hierarchy, he gets the opportunity to make amends on the brown colt. But they are unfavourably drawn in stall 1 – apparently one has to go back 15 years before finding a winner at Epsom from that starting gate at that trip and in a full field. And soft ground will probably not suit.

The trend towards using riders other than those retained by Godolphin extends to their other pair, both schooled by Charlie Appleby, and both available at 66 to 1. Sudden Wonder sees Kevin Manning summoned from Ireland, replacing Mickael Barzalona. One recalls that Manning steered his mount's sire, New Approach, on all his eleven starts, as also his most famous son, Dawn Approach, which means he is familiar with the tribe's traits. Silvestre De Sousa guided Pinzolo (by Monsun) to his Fairway Stakes win last time out but now gives way to James Doyle, freed from his obligation to ride Snow Sky in the Derby, with that runner having been withdrawn. This is a potentially nice horse for the future.

It's worth keeping in mind the fact that recent form is important; in fact, one would have to go back to 1992 to find a winner (Dr Devious) that came into the race off an effort worse than first or second. That does not augur well for the first four favourites! Each-way plays on some of the mid-priced contenders may prove to be the best approach. Pinzolo may turn out to be the best rank outsider.