Incessant media exposure means that almost everyone who watches television in North America, and has some familiarity with sports, is aware that a Triple Crown is on the line in 2014. That magnificent burnished chestnut with the elaborate white markings, California Chrome (by Lucky Pulpit) is the latest to attempt the feat, which was last achieved in 1978 by the great Affirmed. Last month, "Chrome" annexed both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes with ease and now attempts the last and most towering obstacle,  the Belmont Stakes.

An analysis of the field size shows that several of the successful Triple Crown winners concluded their quest by beating small fields. For example, Secretariat faced just five rivals in his 31-lengths romp in 1973. When the field size has been larger than eight, no Triple Crown aspirant has won the Belmont Stakes. Seattle Slew and Citation are a couple who beat exactly seven rivals each in the last leg.

These figures bode ominously for this year's hot favourite, California Chrome, who is likely to start at odds-on. As many as ten three-year-olds have been lined up by their connections to run against him in the 12 fur. Belmont Stakes, scheduled to be run in New York at 6:52 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, June 7^th (4:12 a.m. on Sunday, June 8^th in India).

Apart from the statistics, it's worth noting that no odds-on choice has prevailed in the Belmont since the aforementioned Affirmed, nor has the race favourite been sighted passing the winning post in front since Afleet Alex in 2005.

Also, much has been written about California Chrome's pedigree, or alleged lack thereof. For example, he does not have a Grade/Group 1 winner as a sire – as all eleven previous Triple Crown winners had. One has to go back to his eighth dam, Uncle’s Lassie, to find a mare that bred an American classic winner (Clyde Van Dusen, hero of the 1929 Kentucky Derby).

But the talented chestnut does not know all this. What he probably does know is that he is a fleet-footed runner with an explosive kick who enjoys outgunning his rivals; that exercise rider Willie Delgado and race rider Victor Espinoza frequently sit on his back (and he feels good about that); and that trainer Art Sherman probably understands him deeper than any other two-legged creature on Earth. With all these "feel-good" factors, "CC" responds by doing what he does better than any other member of the 25,000-strong North American foal crop of 2011 – namely, run fast.

Frankly, California Chrome is something of a freak. When most first foals struggle to make 50 kgs. at birth, he showed up one February night in 2011 at Harris Farm in Coalinga, California, weighing a mind-boggling 62 kgs! And apart from a mighty body, he has a great mind. For example, he stops to pose whenever he hears cameras clicking around him. The experienced  Delgado reported: "I've never been around a horse this smart".

And a more critical analysis of his pedigree shows that, like three of the last four Triple Crown winners, his dam is highly inbred. In addition, from his third dam onwards, the sires concerned are all breed-shapers and chefs-de-race like Sir Ivor, Vaguely Noble, Ribot and Princequillo.

California Chrome's team is bullish. “I feel more confident coming into this race than I did any race,” Sherman said last week. “He’s coming into the race perfect. I think the horses running against him have to worry about me, not me worry about any of the other horses.” Last week's outstanding piece of track work confirms Sherman's assertions that his ward is well-tuned.

Coming off the Kentucky Derby are that race's second-, fourth-, fifth- and eighth-placed finishers, respectively Commanding Curve (by Master Command), Wicked Strong (by Hard Spun), Samraat (by the recently-deceased Noble Causeway) and Medal Count (by Dynaformer). From the Preakness, runner-up Ride On Curlin (by Curlin) re-opposes as does General A Rod (by Roman Ruler), while the first two finishers in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont, Tonalist (by Tapit) and Commissioner (by A.P. Indy), complete the list of those with realistic chances. Obviously the latter pair benefit from what could be said to be "home track advantage".

On pure form, there is absolutely no reason to think that any of his rivals other than Commanding Curve and Ride On Curlin are anywhere in the same league. If one had to make a case for a couple of the others, one could point out that Tonalist is very lightly raced, so may turn out superior to the rating he now enjoys, while Wicked Strong could arguably prove better than his last effort.

That leaves the question of stamina. With so many runners, it is doubtful if California Chrome can rely on a dawdling pace to enhance his chances. So he will have to gut it out, even if at some point he reaches the end of his tether distance-wise. And at this point, he might have to send a silent appeal to his stout ancestors – like the four chefs-de-race mentioned above from his female family, as also previous Belmont winners A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew on his sire's side – to come to his aid.

Sherman is not concerned on this score. “I really think a mile and a half is no problem at all for this horse,” he said. “I know when I was at Los Alamitos he galloped two miles every day and the second time around there he was in another gear. He looked better to me the second time around than the first.”

So will California Chrome triumph or will it be another year of heartbreak for fans of the turf? After all, racegoers have become inured to the frustrating spectacle of seeing a dozen potential Triple Crown winners either flop or fail to take part. Assuming no mishaps or adverse pace scenarios occur in the Belmont, California Chrome should make it, although he can hardly be backed at such cramped odds.

Image Courtesy www.belmontstakes.com