Few racing folk would have heard of Swiss-American scientist John Ulric Nef, who is said to have been so convinced that a particular chemical reaction would occur that he spent many thousands of days in experimentation while attempting to prove his hypothesis. It is said his quest took some 17 years of single-minded devotion, fortunately with happy results. This little anecdote came to mind when studying the Japanese quest for a victory in the world's finest weight-for-age race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400 m.) to be run at Longchamp in Paris this Sunday, October 5th. The race has drawn 20 high-class acceptors, which include one supplementary entry.

Like Nef, the Japanese have been chasing an elusive prize. From the time that Speed Symboli (by Royal Challenger) made a daring foray to France way back in 1969, the horsemen of the Land of the Rising Sun have continued to display their keen desire for an Arc trophy to head East. What's more, they have backed this sentiment up by sending across some of their finest Thoroughbreds to vie for the glittering prize. The likes of El Condor Pasa (by Kingmambo) in 1999, Nakayama Festa (by Stay Gold) in 2010 and Orfevre (also by Stay Gold) in 2012 and 2013 have all occupied the runner-up spots, while Deep Impact (by Sunday Silence) finished third on the track (though subsequently disqualified) in 2006.

It seems it's only a matter of time before they strike. And it could be in 2014. This year Just A Way (by Heart's Cry), Harp Star (by Deep Impact) and Gold Ship (by Stay Gold) constitute the Japanese challenge. A change in tactics means that the Arc trials employed for familiarization purposes in recent years have been given the go-by and the trio instead flew West together as recently as Saturday, September 20th via Amsterdam, reaching Chantilly the following day. The journey took 35 hours from end-to-end.

The Japanese horses are a great draw in Paris, with thousands of racing fans making the long journey from Tokyo and Kyoto and other locales in Japan to cheer their compatriots on. "Betting on the Arc has been dominated by Japanese horses in recent years and it looks like there could be another plunge this year," said a spokesman for the bookmaking firm of William Hill. It is believed that almost a third of the volume of wagering so far in 2014 has been on the Japanese horses.

Rated the world's top racehorse after his stunning win in the Dubai Duty Free last March, the five-year-old  Just A Way is at 7-1, which might seem a generous price for one so accomplished and unbeaten in 2014 to boot. However he is not guaranteed to get the trip, which perhaps accounts for the relative munificence of the satchel-men. Trained by Naosuke Sugai and to be ridden by Yuichi Fukunaga, Just A Way has beaten the top-class Gentildonna over 2000 m. so could surely be involved in the finish if he can stretch out just a tad.

Half the last six runnings of the race have fallen to three-year-old fillies and one who fits this profile is the 8 to 1 Harp Star, schooled by Hiroyoshi Matsuda and to be ridden by Yuga Kawada. In her only essay over 2400 m. she finished a close second in the Japanese Oaks after being way back, so will not find the distance an obstacle. More recently she accounted for Gold Ship (stablemate of Just A Way) in the Sapporo Kinen, so if the form holds up, Gold Ship, with Norihiro Yokoyama up, would naturally be considered the outsider of the Asian threesome, which he unsurprisingly is at 12 to 1.

Arguably, the field contains a trio of European-trained three-year-old fillies that are the equal of, if not superior to, Harp Star. These include the current favourite (at 5 to 1), John Gosden's Taghrooda (by Sea The Stars), winner of the Investec Oaks and the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, who will face the rival who rudely dented her reputation in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks, namely Tapestry (by Galileo), supplemented here at a cost of €120,000. The last-named has the inestimable advantage of having Ryan Moore aboard but is only a 14 to 1 chance, following her dismal show in the Coolmore Matron Stakes when most recently seen in public. She could bounce back but needs everything to fall in place perfectly.

The former worked well at her most recent workout and rider Paul Hanagan will be itching to guide her to a resumption of her winning skein. Trainer John Gosden said: "It's all positive as regards the Arc as Paul was very happy with her and she picked up nicely out of the Dip. We are right where we want to be with her and the only ground we don't want at Longchamp is bottomless."

Going by current forecasts, Gosden is likely to get his wish as it is forecast to be relatively dry in Paris, so this year the ground probably won't be a factor. Incidentally, Taghrooda was found to be "in season" the day after her York defeat which could perhaps explain her sub-par effort that day. On the other hand, beating Telescope and Mukhadram may not have been quite as high a level of form as it seemed at first glance.

That brings us to the third of the fancied European sophomore fillies, the unbeaten Avenir Certain (by Le Havre), heroine of both the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks earlier this year. Stamina concerns have prompted Gregory Benoist, regular rider of the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained filly, to defect to the camp of another runner. Clearly it would have been a tough call for the young rider, but a ready replacement was found in the shape of Christophe-Patrice Lemaire, who was obviously delighted to pick up such a talented "spare ride". Lemaire has not yet seen his name inscribed in the list of winning riders of this prestigious event and commented:  "I have finished second once in 2006 and this is the race every jockey wants to win." Avenir Certain is generally available at 8 to 1.

Second favourite for the Arc at 6 to 1 and in the top echelon of the European runners is the formidable Ectot (by Hurricane Run). Now sporting the silks of Al Shaqab Racing, the utterly consistent three-year-old owns a recent victory over course and distance, and an important vote in his favour has come from Gregory Benoist, for it is the Elie Lellouche-trainee that the rider has chosen over Avenir Certain.

A spokesman for part-owner Gerard Augustin-Normand ventured: "Ectot is not difficult to ride, but has a lot of character, so for the team I think this was the best decision. Gregory Benoist has always ridden him, so he knows him very well." One should think so, what with six consecutive victories under their belt.

Ireland's Aidan O'Brien has only a solitary victory in the race and that was back in 2007 through the medium of Dylan Thomas. Apart from Tapestry, he also has the recently-revived Epsom Derby winner of 2013 in the field, namely Ruler Of The World (by Galileo), whose pairing with Frankie Dettori has come across because the Italian ace was "jocked off" from last year's Arc victress, Treve (by Motivator). The joint-property of Al Shaqab Racing and the Coolmore partners, Ruler Of The World appears to have a decent chance following his Prix Foy victory and can be backed at 16 to 1.

The third of the O'Brien runners is Chicquita (by Montjeu), acquired by the Coolmore team in November 2013 at the astronomical cost of €6,000,000 by public auction. Obviously she has proved hard to train, as she has been able to make but a solitary appearance in 2014, when runner-up in the Blandford Stakes. Although that run would have brought her on, the 50 to 1 on offer seems a realistic assessment. Joseph O'Brien will be aboard, hoping to add an Arc victory to his resume before increased weight forces his retirement from flat race riding.

Last year's heroine, Treve, is back for another crack, but so far has been only a mere shadow of her 2013 avatar and appears to have lost her enthusiasm. Even the much-commented return of Thierry Jarnet in the saddle yielded nothing more than a tame fourth in the Prix Vermeille for Criquette Head-Maarek's four-year-old. No wonder Europe's darling of 2013 is now at 10 to 1, a massive fall from grace for one quoted at odds-on for each of her unsuccessful efforts this term.

For weeks this summer, the stunning German-trained Sea The Moon (by Sea The Stars) had seemed to be a certainty in the Arc before injury saw him defeated by Ivanhowe (by Soldier Hollow), and then led to his retirement to the Lanwades Stud near Newmarket. Respecting that form, Ivanhowe's connections have chosen to take a shot here and the four-year-old is a 40 to 1 prospect. William Buick has been drafted for duty on Jean-Pierre Carvalho's ward.

No winner of the Doncaster St. Leger has ever gone on to win the Arc in the same year -- remember the fate that befell the great Nijinsky? Of course Alleged, runner-up to Dunfermline in the St. Leger, went on to annex not one but two "Arcs" so Roger Varian's Kingston Hill (by Mastercraftsman) won't necessarily be inconvenienced by coming down in distance. But will he be good enough without his favoured soft ground? Andrea Atzeni will attempt to find out astride the 16 to 1 chance.

How does one tackle such an intriguing puzzle? Obviously it's risky placing complete faith in any one runner as the draw, pace and luck of the race will play a part. Perhaps it's best to draw up a short list -- Avenir Certain, Ectot, Harp Star, Just A Way and Taghrooda have proved consistent, possess terrific seasonal form in 2014 (collectively 15 wins from 17 starts) and must form the core of one's selections. Gold Ship, Ruler Of The World and Treve have the credentials to figure in the mix. And while any of the remaining dozen can win -- that is why they are running -- their hopes seem forlorn. Those in search of absolute outsiders might glance at the 50 to 1 Chicquita and the hitherto-unmentioned 40 to 1 Dolniya (by Azamour).