The 2011 crop has run its 10 Classics (not counting those run at Udhagamandalam) during the Summer and Monsoon seasons and is now getting ready for the big Winter events. The calendar this year is such that it will be Kolkata, and not Hyderabad, which will have the privilege of flagging off the series.

With Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy's duo of Be Safe and Bold Majesty each winning two Classics, there were eight Summer/Monsoon Classic winners. That has been the general trend over the past ten years. There has never been a year when the ten Classics have been won by ten different horses and that is a significant pointer. During the same ten year period, 99 Summer/Monsoon Classics were run (The Mysore Derby was declared null and void in 2010) and it was won by 81 different horses. Of those 81 winners, 35 went on to add a Winter Classic to their tally. That represents a strike rate of 45 %. In racing, success rate of over 40 % is something that warrants close attention.

Bangalore's three Summer Classics have provided 21 winners who have repeated during the Winter. The breakdown of those 21 winners is - Fillies' Championship Stakes 4, Colts' Championship Stakes 9 and Kingfisher Derby Bangalore 8. Mysore races have been the next best pointers with each of the three Monsoon Classics showcasing five future winners in the Winter. Four Pune Derby winners have gone on to win a Winter Classic and the same number have been provided by the Deccan Derby. The other two Monsoon Classics at Malakpet run over a mile have the least impressive record, just two winners of each being successful during the Winter months.

One or two shrewd and knowledgeable observers have opined that 2011 crop is a poor one and that it lacks depth. They accept that Be Safe is a very good horse but maintain that lack of competition makes him look better and invests him with an aura. Comparing one crop to another is a subjective exercise. It is surprising that even in today's computer age no statistics are produced which can serve as a comparison tool. Perhaps, because those statistics are of interest only to an academician and not to a day to day punter.

When one talks of a crop, usually the attention is on its stars. It is perfectly possible for a particular crop to have tinsel stars but a solid bank of middle level performers and so actually be better. Which has been the best crop in the last five years ? It has been an interesting exercise compiling these statistics and the results might surprise some. A point to be noted is that these statistics pertain only to the Summer/Monsoon Classic winners and their ratings going into the Winter season :-

2007 Crop - Siachen 76, Sun Kingdom 80, Moonlight Romance 82, Scionic 80, Immense 90, Xisca 95, String Along 89 and Ocean and Beyond 80. AVERAGE RATING 84.0

2008 Crop - Lovely Kiss 82, Pronto Pronto 92, Practicallyperfect 80, Super Duper 85, In The Spotlight 89, Field Marshal 96 and Hills and Stars 78. AVERAGE RATING 87.0

2009 Crop - Vijays Pride 95, Machiavellianism 100, Borsalino 100, Equine Lover 90, Super Storm 102, Wind Stream 105 and Commander 86. AVERAGE RATING 96.9

2010 Crop - Amelia 81, Alaindair 88, Acclaimed 81, Jeremiah 88, Isn't She Special 83 and Southern Emperor 105. AVERAGE RATING 87.7

2011 Crop - Maisha 80, Be Safe 92, Godspeed 86, Bold Majesty 88, Spreadeagle 85, The Myth 72 and War Command 72. AVERAGE RATING 83.4 

The statistics confirm that the stars of the current crop have a low wattage. Be Safe, for all his superiority, does not have a three figure rating while the ratings of The Myth and War Command are the lowest for a Summer/Monsoon Classic winner in the past five years. It goes without saying that the transition of a crop from one year to another will follow the laws of nature. Some will train on and mature into superior runners; some will stagnate while others, often due to physical mishaps, will go backwards.

One of the hardest jobs of a trainer is to keep a horse under enforced R & R (rest and recuperation) physically fit and mentally happy. Malesh Narredu seems to have done that with Be Safe for the Hazara-bred, going by his work-outs, seems to have come out of his Monsoon hibernation with no ill effects. He is the prime player in the Indian Classics. Malesh Narredu also houses the Pune Derby winner Quasar in his yard. It will be interesting to see how they approach the Winter engagements. Narredu does target the Classics at Hyderabad and Quasar could be aimed for one though, of course, the owner will have a major say.

A similar problem confronts Narredu with the filly Godspeed. Does he take on Maisha at Mahalakshmi or try and pick up a Golconda Classic. Godspeed did travel to Malakpet for the fillies' race in the monsoon and though she won, it was not a happy journey. That factor will be weighed carefully. Westphalia, winner of her last three races, also has the Golconda 1000 Guineas in her sights but the stable rarely does one-off raids. Dr. Ramaswamy has two other possible contenders in War Command and Top Commander who are with Karthik Ganapathy. One of them may be kept at Mumbai as a pacemaker for Be Safe and other switched to a Southern centre. The Myth, having bled in the Pune Derby, remains under a cloud. Bold Majesty, a winner of two Classics during the wet months, is yet to be sighted on the track.

For years, the Khaitan citadel at Kolkata seemed as secure as Fort William. Then, Dr. Ramaswamy's horses began to raid it successfully. In the last few years, Pesi Shroff,  Padmanabhan and Arjun Mangalorkar have breached the ramparts while Dr. Mallya's horses have always been prominent. It is understood that Padmanabhan has already sent Torch Bearer and the Razeen filly Aralyn who, by the way, runs in the Khaitan colours - to Hastings. They will be joined next month by Spreadeagle whose target is the Eveready Calcutta Derby, Gr.1. The 'khabar' is that Spreadeagle will not run in the Bangalore 2000 Guineas where Coldstream will carry the Mallya silks. Coriolis will travel to Hyderabad for the Golconda 2000 Guineas to support the locally trained Cornwallis.

It is very difficult to come back in distance after having run a Monsoon Derby as Supreme Fairy found when she made a heavy weather of landing the short odds over 1400 m. The run will bring her on and she should have plenty of support on the coming Monday though an Oaks trip will be more to her liking going by the pedigree. Her stable-mate Culebra has not been noticed in the morning work after the Deccan Derby and appears to be on the repair list.

PAST THE POST

Though the Summer/Monsoon races have been referred to as "Classics" they, in fact, are not. Quite recently, the Turf Authorities of India decreed that only the Winter races will be considered as "Classics" in addition to a couple of others. World over, each country has five or six Classics. In India, we had 39 ! One of the additional races accorded the "Classic" tag is the President of India Gold Cup, Gr.1. So that becomes the first weight-for-age anywhere in the world to be called a Classic. Classics are generally the preserve of one crop.

It is one thing to stipulate. Quite another to monitor. The official commentators of Turf Authorities conducting racing at Mysore and Hyderabad, duly added a Classic to Dr. Ramaswamy's score when Bold Majesty, The Myth and War Command won during the monsoons. So the stipulation seems to be just a paper exercise and the old order prevails.