In the nine horse field for the ABV Nucleas Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1, Be Safe (Holy Roman Empire - Oriental Lady) stands tall like a colossus. A winner of seven of his eight starts, Dr. Ramaswamy's Hazara-bred colt should have been going into the race unbeaten as did Her Majesty, Camino, Exhilaration, Vesuvius, Adler, Elusive Pimpernel, Indictment, Continual and Southern Empire in their times. He was, however, beaten by his farm-mate Shivalik Storm in the Poonawalla  Breeders' Multi-Million, Gr.1 and while that result caused no riot, it required a sackful of salt to accept. 

Since then, Be Safe has won three races in Bangalore including the Colts-Derby double and was rested during the monsoons. He has had not had a run during the current term though he has been regularly sighted on the track of late. In the last forty years, six winners of the Bangalore Summer Double (Royal Tern, Camino, Sir Bruce, Southern Empire, Bourbon King and Pronto Pronto) have added the Indian 2000 Guineas to their CV but four (Cape Dance, Star Supreme, Holding Court and Alaindair) failed to do so. During the same period, a dozen odds-on favourites have won the race and exactly half that number have been beaten. Be Safe is certain to start at a very short price. Lack of a recent race is the only question mark against against him though 10 of the winners since 1973 have triumphed without a prep race. 

Rule Downunder and Speed King two course and distance winners in the field and there are three runners, other than Be Safe, who are going into the race without a prep run. In the latter category is Shivalik Storm (Dancing Forever - Badraan), the lone conqueror of Be Safe. Running in the colours of Be Safe's breeder, Shivalik Storm hasn't quite built on his last victory as he failed to earn a bracket in three starts during his Pune campaign. His deceased sire has already produced a Classic winner in the shape of The Myth. Of his two Rebuttal half-brothers, Shivalik Star is a smart sprinter while Ace Badraan is a a useful miler. Their Halling half-sister Eastern Aria is a winner of a Gr.2 race in England and the family antecedents (Green Desert, Namaqualand, Bertolini, etc) are impeccable. Shivalik Storm has the pedigree but according to the Handicapper he needs to find about five lengths on form to repeat his win over Be Safe. 

Shivalik Storm's win over Be Safe passed off with a few murmurs and much head shaking but Rule Downunder's defeating Congressional actually caused a commotion and led to day's racing coming to an end. Rule Downunder (Aussie Rules - Fatat Alarab) runs in the colours of "sporting" owners whose numbers are dwindling and victory for this Capricorn Stud-bred will be much welcome. Rule Downunder is by a Classic winning miler and his grandam was third in Kentucky Oaks, Gr.1. This is good American family, that of Native Dancer, Bold Lad, Successor, Dispute, Time For A Change and others including the Usha Stud stallion Steinbeck. The Sunderji-trained gelding is a useful sort who will win his share of races and has racing fitness on his side. He is, though, taking on a huge task.

The defeat of Congressional (Razeen - Kerataka) caused an uproar at Mahalakshmi. If he wins on Sunday, the crowd could erupt. Razeen is without a Classic winner for a little over two years and it will be pleasing if his last crop provides him with one. Congressional's 'got-abroad' half-sister Botswana (by Invincible Spirit) was beaten less than a length in the Radio Mirchi Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 three years ago. Kerataka has produced a Listed race winner in Ireland called Majestic Falcon (by Oasis Dream) and she traces to Lindos Ojos. This is a young and excellent family, developed by the old Aga Khan himself and it is of interest to know that the first significant horse from it was the Eclipse Stakes of India winner Priorate, a son of Lindos Ojos herself. Rule Downunder gave 1.5 kgs and beat Congressional by just half a length but the Handicapper has the former at 74 and the latter at 63. Obviously, the 'got-abroad' has impressed him more. 

One other horse worthy of a mention is Zachary (Kingda Ka - Yantai), the only other black-type winner apart from Be Safe and Shivalik Storm. Zachary won the S.A. Poonawalla Multi-Million, Gr.2 stylishly in Pune but back-pedalled in the Nanoli Stud Pune Derby, Gr.1 after having held a forward position for much of the race. Perhaps, the mile is his best trip. His sire has a had a couple of horses - Obellina Princess and Booker Jones - on board in the southern Classics but Zachary's dam line is short of a Gr. 1 Classic standard.  

There is only a limited amount that one can talk about Sunday's race. That, however, does give space to dwell on Be Safe's pedigree at a greater length. Be Safe is by Holy Roman Emperor who should be known to Indian fans having already produced Smashing (Zoom Indian Oaks, Gr.1) and Fastest Finger (Deccan Bookmakers' Golconda 2000 Guineas, Gr.2). The stallion was a top 2YO in Europe who did not get a chance to exhibit his prowess at 3 because he was whisked off to stud to replace George Washington whose early mares were not holding to their coverings. He started at a fee of €35,000  and though it has dropped down €20,000, he is still holding his place on the Coolmore roster and a little over 50 of his runners have been rated in three figures. Initially thought to be a better sire of fillies, he has since redressed the balance and his top three runners are all geldings. The average winning distance of his progeny is 7.8 furlongs and though he has had Group winners from 1200 m. to 2400 m., the best distance of his 'gets' is from a mile to 2000 m. He is not a sire confirmed to get 2400 m. winners at the top level. Indian racing is different kettle of fish and Smashing with a DI of 1.82 was a comprehensive winner winner of the Indian Oaks so Be Safe's index of 1.55 suggests that his class can carry him through, especially on account of his dam line which is much stouter than Smashing's. 

The Dosage Index is not an infallible system and a better idea of a horse's staying potential can be gleaned from his near relatives. The Wildenstein mare Oriental Lady won her only race in France over 2400 m. from just four starts. . Beacon Lady (by Haafhd), her only foal to race abroad, is winner of seven races including six over 2400 m. while her half-brother Ostankino (by speedy Zieten)  won the Prix Maurice de Nieuil, Gr.2 over 2800 m.and placed second in Prix du Cadran, Gr.1 over 4000 m. Be Safe's grandam Otaiti won two Listed races in France over 2000 m. and was narrowly defeated in Prix de Pomone, Gr.2 over 2700 m. at Deauville. The next dam Ode won four black-type races in France including Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, Gr.2 over 2400 m.. The fourth dam, the black-type winning Ouro Verde, is a half-sister to Sanctus who won the Prix du Jockey Club, Gr.1 (2400 m.) and Grand Prix de Paris, Gr.1 (3000 m.). Those are very strong stamina indications. This is the family of Aga Khan's unbeaten Triple Crown winner Bahram, Oaks heroine Pia, Winged Love (Irish Derby), Sunny Boy III and a host of other good class staying horses. 

Be Safe traces through Plucky Liege to Concertina. Plucky Liege was a remarkable mare in as much that she produced four horses who became outstanding sires. Bull Dog and Sir Gallahad III were by Teddy, Admirable Drake was a son of Craig an Eran while Vatout sired Bois Roussel.  Though Bull Dog is classified as a 'brilliant' chef de race, Sir Gallahad III is  'classic', Admiral Drake is in the 'professional' category and Bois Roussel is labelled 'stout'. No matter what Be Safe achieves or doesn't achieve hereafter, his performance to date and his pedigree make him a very attractive stallion prospect. He has more going for him than the annual shipments of "meatballs" that add to our stallion ranks. 

PAST THE POST  

The average rating of the Indian 2000 Guineas field over the last five years has been 70.8.  This year it is only 66.0. Only in Pronto Pronto's year has it been lower. 

"There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at flood, leads on to fortune". So said The Bard. This winter, Mallesh Narredu has had just two runners in the Classics and both are winners - Quasar at Calcutta and Godspeed at Mumbai. His third runner will be Be Safe and so short the odds on him will be that no fortunes can be made.