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EARLY BIRD CATCHES THE WORM
By Major Srinivas Nargolkar (Retd.) | 02 Jan 2015 |
Major Srinivas Nargolkar (Retd.)
Racing has been in existence for about 300 years and in that time it has evolved considerably. When Eclipse won the Noblemen and Gentlemen's Plate at Epsom in 1769 (the race that provided "Eclipse first, rest nowhere" quote) the race was run in three 4 mile heats. Eclipse was making his debut and was a 5 year-old. Stamina and durability were the necessary requirements of a good horse in those days. With passage of time, the distance of races began to become shorter with the result that speed and precocity became the essential virtues. They continue to be so today even if the breed as a whole has become fragile.
Owners who invest money in racehorses, need a quick return which is why precocity is so valued. Today, in the computer age, so much information and statistics are available and so it is surprising that not enough of it concerns precocity. For instance, average winning distance of the progeny of a stallion is available and is a handy tool. There is, however, no 'Precocity Index' which can be just as useful.
It would not be difficult to design such an index. For example, we have full details of the first two crops of Multidimensional. The Usha Stud stallion had 85 named foals from those two crops of whom six never raced. 56 of his 79 runners are winners and they needed 277 collective starts to earn their first winning bracket. That would give Multidimensional a 'Precocity Index' of 4.95. What it would mean is that an average Multidimensional needs about five starts to hoist the winning flag. 4.95 is just the average. Multidimensional has 16 horses who won on their debut but there are many others who needed more than five starts to do so. If the 'Precocity Index' of all stallions was available, it would give us a comparative idea of which stallions generally produce more precocious stock. Of course, as with every other statistical information, it would not be a crystal ball to pick the winner but an aid in making a value judgement.
There is a year-end table "Champion Juvenile Sire" for which only one crop is considered. A stallion who figures high repeatedly in that table could be said to be a sire whose progeny is precocious. That table, however, considers one whole year's racing. A stallion like Multidimensional gets a very large portion of his winners from June to October, in the latter of the year so, his figuring high in the table gives a slightly misleading inference.
The racing year in India starts on 1 November and end on 31 October. The juvenile crop hence races for two months as 2YOs and then for ten months as 3YOs. If we had a table for "Champion 2YO Sire", it would give us a better idea of the precocity aspect of the stallions.
A stallion alone is not responsible for precocity. The dam, too, plays a vital part. The role of the stud farm is also crucial and finally there is the trainer. Some trainers are known to get their wards ready very early while others tend to bring them on patiently. It may be a good idea to have your 2YOs racing early but it needs to be tempered. This year, there have been some 2YOs who have raced as many as five times in just two months. If they survive this rigourous regime without breaking down or becoming sour, it will speak well of the hardiness if not of their precocity.
As an academic exercise, the statistics of this year's 2YO racing were compiled. It has to be said that the effort involved paper and pencil and no computer was used so there is every chance that there are inadvertent errors. If these are pointed out, they will be gratefully acknowledged and the errors corrected. The statistics do not include racing at Chennai. Nor do they include the 'got-abroads'. The number of foals is taken from the Return of Mares for 2012. Subsequent DNA typing would have solved the double coverings and the totals of some stallions will be augmented by a foal or two. A # before a stallion's name indicates a first season sire. Two tables, which might be useful, emerged from the compilation.
STALLIONS WITH MOST 2YO RUNNERS (NUMBER OF 2012 FOALS)
1. Noverre (dead) 21 (61)
2. Burden of Proof 14 (41)
3. Rebuttal (dead) 12 (71)
4 .# Samhoon (dead) 12 (36)
5. Ace 11 (36)
6. Phoenix Tower 11 (55)
7. # Arazaan 11 (80)
8. Chevalier 10 (50)
9. Win Legend 9 (30)
10. Arabian Gulf 9 (43)
STALLIONS WITH MOST 2YO WINNERS (NUMBER OF RUNNERS)
1. Phoenix Tower 4 (11)
2. Chevalier 3 (10)
3. Ace 3 (11)
4. Burden of Proof 3 (14)
5. Noverre (dead) 3 (21)
6. # Stern Opinion 2 (5)
7. # Varenar 2 (7)
8. Arabian Gulf 2 (9)
9. Win Legend 2 (9)
10. #Samhoon 2 (12)
* There are several interesting conclusions that the two tables suggest. It is best left to the perspective and point of view of the viewers to draw them.
PAST THE POST
* A stallion who does not figure in the above two tables is the modestly bred Indian horse Brahmaputra. He had just two foals and one runner -- Brahmaputri -- who is a winner !
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