In 2011, 1902  Thoroughbred foals were born making it the largest crop ever in the history of Indian breeding. About 225  (11.83 %) of those foals had been imported 'in utero'  ('got-abroads' if you prefer the common jargon). So far 12 'Classics' have been run in the year 2014-15 and exactly half of them have been won by 'got-abroads', thereby exposing the inability of Indian-conceived, Indian-born foals to offer a stern challenge.

This Sunday's Villoo Poonawalla Indian Oaks will be the 71st renewal of the race. There have been 21 Indian 1000 Guineas-Indian Oaks doubles in that period, three of them in this millennium with Jacqueline being the last to do so in 2010. Godspeed won the New Hope Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 last month, holding the favourite Maisha at bay. Godspeed was conceived and born in India and comes from Mallesh Narredu's stable which is having a great Classic run. She is yet to race beyond a mile, tends to wander away from the running rail in closing stages of a race, had a lareangyal operation on the Boxing Day and faces tough competition from five fillies imported 'in utero'.

As a winner of five of her six starts, Godspeed commands much respect.Her ability to successfully tackle the mile and a half trip depends largely on the Multidimensional/Razeen cross which has had considerable Classic success over that distance in a very short span.There is no Classic winner in the first three generations of her pedigree though her third dam Roccobarocco was unfortunate not to be one being the runner-up the Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 as well as the Indian Oaks, Gr.1, beaten just a short-head in the former race. The next dam Choreography was a full-sister to Prima Facie (South India Oaks, Gr.1) who produced the Calcutta Derby, Gr.1 winner Legal Steps. This is the family of C. Minor (Golconda St. Leger, Gr.2), Maribella (Kwality Ice Cream South India Oaks, Gr.1), Ruby Queen (Golconda Oaks, Gr.2) and Riyasat (HDIL Indian Oaks, Gr.1). So there is stamina not far away. This is also the family of stallion Alnasr Alwasheek, a notable stamina influence. It is one thing to have the stamina quotient on the paper and quite another to actually produce it on the track. In Godspeed's case, it would be no surprise if she stayed the distance. Yet, one cannot be bullish about it. 

The other Indian-conceived Indian born fillies in the field are well-bred but so far adrift in ratings that it is difficult to imagine them getting the better of Godspeed unless the Guineas winner is totally drained coming into the straight. Bethpage is a maiden; Classic Moment's family does not have a winner beyond 2000 m. in India despite Razeen having sired many of the representatives; Helping Hand hasn't raced, like Godspeed, beyond a mile while Tatiana has strong stamina credentials on her dam's side but her sire Phoenix Tower is yet to produce a good winner over a mile and a half.

The challenge to Godspeed will thus come from the 'got-abroads', spearheaded by the Shroff-trained duo of Aquamarine (Mastercraftsman - Pilgrim's Way) and Tiger Tops (Tiger Hill - Cockayne). It wouldn't raise eye-brows if Aquamarine, the grey filly running in Mr. Vijay Shirke's colours, starts with substantial support for the whispers about her have grown into roof-top shouts and people are even talking about her Indian Derby chances. A part of that hype may be because she is Amazing Grace's galloping companion and there are some similarities with Dr. Mallya's mare. Amazing Grace went into last year's Oaks with just one winning run over 2000 m. Aquamarine has two, discounting her first educational outing in Mumbai. She has been immensely impressive in those wins.

Being on the cautious side, Aquamarine's wins have come against handicap opposition and she is still inexperienced. Add to that the fact that on pedigree, at first sight, she is not meant to be a mile and a half filly. Her dam was an ordinary winner up to a mile and never raced beyond it. The grandam Marling was a Champion Miler. The next dam Marwell was a Champion Sprinter who counted the King's Stand Stakes, Gr.1 and Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp, Gr.1, two of Europe's top sprints, among her 10 wins. In fact, a more than cursory search revealed that there has been just one winner descending from Marwell who has won beyond a mile and that was the filly Quisisana (by Rainbow Quest) who scored over 2000 m.

Aquamarine's sire Mastercraftsman did win a Gr.3 race over 2000 m. and placed in Gr.1 events over the same distance. However, his best wins were over a mile. He started at Coolmore Stud at a fee of €20,000 which dropped down to €12,500. From his first crop, the stallion has sired The Grey Gatsby (Prix du Jockey Club, Gr.1) and Kingston Hill (Ladbrokes St. Leger, Gr.1) and his 2015 fee has rocketed to €40,000. It would seem that in line with many Danehill line sires, he transmits stamina in excess of his own. Interestingly. The Grey Gatsby, Kingston Hill and Aquamarine are all greys like Mastercraftsman himself. Pedigree is a starting point and at some stage you have to move away from it and concentrate on the actual horse because the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

A twist has been added to the race with Shroff deciding to run Tiger Tops just a week after going down to Quasar In the Eveready Calcutta Derby, Gr.1. Narredu's colt won quite easily but Tiger Tops was not disgraced. She came down to Mumbai by train and a decision on her participation was taken after her trainer had physically verified that she was none the worse for the race and the journey. Just from memory, Shroff has twice pitched runners at the deep end with what would normally be considered a very small time interval. First, in 2012 he sent Volterra, who had finished third in the Zoom  Indian Oaks, Gr.1 for the Vijay Textiles Golconda Derby, Gr.1 the following Sunday. She was unplaced at Malakpet. The following year he ran Jeremiah in the Vijay Textiles Deccan Derby, Gr.1 on 2 October and brought him back for the Nanoli Stud Pune Derby, Gr.1 on 13 October. Jeremiah won both the races. There are no apprehensions of Tiger Tops being suited by distance and even if she is 90 % fit, she runs with a very good chance; possibly, a better one than her stable-mate.

Laurita (Ghostzapper - Champagne Cocktail) was beaten by almost half a dozen lengths in the New Hope Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 but a subsequent win in the Golconda Oaks, Gr.2 has raised her rating to 93, same as Godspeed. That is absurd for in the Golconda Oaks she faced just three rivals all with a common ownership interests and the bare result needs to be viewed more critically. Still, the filly has shown that she can put in a winning run over 2400 m., which can be said only of Tiger Tops among her rivals. Earlier in the Deccan Bookmakers' Golconda 1000 Guineaas, Gr.2, Laurita, Westphalia (Bushranger -Peace) and Helping Hand were separated by a short-head and a head.  Then, in the New Hope Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1, Laurita was third with Westphalia less than a length away in fifth. Westphalia will be going beyond a mile for the first time in her career on Sunday. Her sire was a pure sprinter but her Sadler's Wells dam is a winner over 2000 m. The connections feel that she has gone more on her dam, was only warming up towards the end of a mile trip and are hopeful of a better run.

Last year, trainer Padmanabhan produced a rabbit out of the hat in this race with Isn't She Special. This year, he comes from Bangalore with Pure Allure (Giacomo - Personal Allure). Isn't She Special was an unknown quantity over a 2400 m. trip whereas Pure Allure's third in a modest Bangalore Oaks, Gr.2 leaves her exposed. A line through Alameda suggests that Pure Allure may find it difficult to put it across Laurita (or even Westphalia) but even her  trainer would know that and must be ready with a new strategy (making the running ?) to overcome it.

Numerically, the 'got-abroads' and entirely the local breds are evenly matched. The former category has a combined rating of 385 whereas the latter muster just 313. The overall rating of the field (69.8) is almost on par with the average for previous five years. Only in 2011, the year of Moonlight Romance, has the average field rating been higher.

PAST THE POST

21 Indian 1000 Guineas - Indian Oaks doubles mentioned above have been achieved by Her Majesty (1947), Gamble For Love (1950), Nava Ratna (1951), Tosca (1955), Neolight (1956), Sunny Downs (1958), Meherban (1959), Rose Royal (1965), Radhapyari (1966), Elegance (1971), Victorious (1972), Heliantha (1974), Ghazab (1976),  Reprint (1977), Highland Rule (1980), Potential Champion (1981), Golden Treasure (1990), Forest Fantasy (1998), Venus Arising (2005), Sweeping Success (2008) and Jacqueline (2010). Reflect (1978) also won both the races but was demoted in the Oaks after successful objections. On the other hand, Sweeping Success got the double after Yana was disqualified after winning the race on the track. Godspeed has a chance to add to that list.

A dozen fillies who had won the Indian 1000 Guineas, finished second in the Indian Oaks. They are Chand Bibi (1944), Odds On (1945), Pillar To Post (1946), Titwillow (1957), High Party (1962), My Smita (1964), Snow  (1984), Eminence (1985), Nauvkhal (1987), Thumbelina (1993), Mystic Memory (1995) and Alma Mater (2012).

Eight fillies who were second in the Indian 1000 Guineas, found compensation by winning the Indian Oaks; Liberty Belle (1949), Vedette (1954), Remembrance (1963), Multirosa (1967), Florina (1968), Starfire Girl (1991), Romantic Liaison (2006) and Moonlight Romance (2011).

There are five instances of the winner and the runner-up occupying the same positions in the Indian 1000 Guineas and Indian Oaks -  Neolight and Ushakal (1956), Rose Royal and Fairy Gold (1965), Heliantha and Nectar Queen (1974), Highland Rule and Nobility and Jacqueline and Astral Flash (2010).

There are three ocasions when the same two fillies filled the first two places in the Indian 1000 Guineas and the Indian Oaks but with reversed order - Fitna and Liberty Belle (1949), River Haven and Multirosa (1967) and Sparkling Water and Florina (1968).

Seven fillies played the bridesmaid in the Indian 1000 Guineas as well as the Indian Oaks. They are Navvara (1948), Nilanjana (1960), Shipshape (1964), Lucky Pair (1970), Wonder Tern (1986), Roccobarocco (1989) and Circle of Life (2014).