There has been a flurry unprecedented activity in the month of January, with horses covering long distances to compete in big races with short time gaps (and winning ! ). Tiger Tops won the Villoo Poonawalla Indian Oaks, Gr.1, Sunday to Sunday, after having run in the Eveready Calcutta Derby, Gr.1 won by Quasar. The latter himself went to Hyderabad and captured the Deccan Bookmakers' Golconda Derby, Gr.1 with only a week more in between. And now, Quasar and Bold Majesty descend on Mahalakshmi for the biggest test for the 2011 crop six to seven days later while Tiger Tops gets embroiled within a fortnight. This toing and froing must have some effect on their performance this Sunday.

While all this frenetic regional skirmishing has been going on, the red hot favourite and winner elect Be Safe has been working quietly in Mumbai. As far as he is concerned, nothing has changed. The cognoscenti ought to be solidly behind Dr. M.A.M. Ramaswamy's colt but a short priced favourite doesn't enthuse a common punter as much and so the anti-Be Safe lobby has been quietly growing, looking to either lay Be Safe or picking out a lucrative alternative at better odds.

There are two ways of looking at the race. One takes the purely racing reasons into considerations. The other looks for twists and turns in the tale. Sheer racing logic demands that Be Safe cannot be opposed. He has been beaten just once in nine starts and that result sparked off a huge debate. That debate is irrelevant now because has already extracted revenge on Shivalik Storm, his solitary conqueror, in the ABV Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1 with a comprehensive four length plus victory. Of his other rivals, he has the direct beating of  Bold Majesty, Congressional, Shivalik Showers, Quasar and Tiger Tops and through them has a clear advantage over many others. A track record breaking run in the Ruia without getting out of the cruise mode further boosts his cause. The only area of doubt concerns the fact that he has yet not gone over a mile and a half while his principal rivals - Quasar, Bold Majesty and Tiger Tops have Classic wins over that distance. A reasonable concern given that none of Holy Roman Emperor's sons with a 100 plus rating, except one, has a win over 2400 m. against his name. That exception is a winner in Bahrain. Be Safe has a surfeit of class and that should carry him through.

Quasar and Tiger Tops appear to have been taken too often and too soon to the well. They stood a better chance had they been going into the race with a less strenuous campaign behind them. Bold Majesty runs with on Sunday with an even shorter break than Quasar and Tiger Tops and his final entry suggests an afterthought.  Before winning the Legacy Bangalore Derby, Gr.1, Bold Majesty's campaign was well spaced out and he may just be fresher than Quasar and Tiger Tops. What is in his favour, though, is that the long Mahalakshmi straight will afford him a full opportunity to make the most of his strong stretch run and it would be no shock to see him get the better of atleast one of the other two Derby winners, if not both.

The Aquamarine bubble burst in the Indian Oaks. Nature abhors vacuum and another bubble in the shape of Illidan (Intense Focus - Edessya) has floated up to fill it. Aquamarine and Illidan are the least experienced of runners in the field.  Dr. John Weld, once associated with Kunigal Stud, bought Edessya in-foal to Intense Focus for the Rattonsey family at Goffs November Sale in 2010 for Euros 30,000. The mare is a winner of a race over 2400 m. in Ireland. Illidan is from the first crop of the Ballylinch stallion Intense Focus who had a full campaign as a 2YO during which he won the Darley  Dewhurst Stakes, Gr.1 and a very brief one as a 3YO. The indications were that Intense Focus was a miler. The average winning distance of his progeny is a little over a mile. If Illidan has taken after his dam side, then 2400 m. is palpably short for him. His grandam is a half-sister to three Gr.1 stayers in Enzeli, Estimate (both won the Ascot Gold Cup over 4000 m.) and Ebadiyla (Prix Royal-Oak over 3000 m.). The Rattonsey family won stunning  back-to-back Indian Derbys last decade through Hotstepper and Antonios both of whom had better form going into the race. If he progresses along the expected lines, Illidan may be seen to advantage in the Indian St. Leger. This race comes too soon for him.

By flying low, The General (Phoenix Tower - Sunshiner) has avoided detection by radars. He was giving 5 kgs. to Highlander when beaten narrowly over course and distance last time out. Since then, Highlander has won the Byculla Club Trophy getting better of Rodeo and Astapi. The line through Highlander does wonders for the rating of The General who is currently pegged at only 81. He is a dark one indeed but if he were to upstage stablemates Be Safe and Quasar it would leave the trainer in an unenviable spot. 

So much for the purely racing aspects. We now come to other aspects which have a bearing on the racing part. There are several cross/common interests in this year's contest and one cannot be sure how they will pan out. Dr. M.A. M. Ramaswamy, seeking a seventh Indian Derby triumph in his own colours, has three runners with three different trainers though we can be certain that the Ganapathys, pere et fils, will be in sync. There are two Phoenix Towers bred at Manjri Stud owned Mr. Shapoor Mistry who has also acquired an interest in Tiger Tops. Pesi Shroff and Mallesh Narredu will be fielding three runners each, all in different ownerships. Hazara Stud has five contestants including two in Mr. Nirmal Singh's colours, both trained by C.D. Katrak. There are three Usha-breds and two born at Nanoli Stud. A private trainer gives an owner complete control. In political situations, absolute majority makes for easy decision making. A trainer serving different heavy-weight interests has to be good at tight rope walking. What is in best interests of one owner may not so in case of another. This is where the pure racing scenario gets affected as compromises have to be made.

The decision to supplement Bold Majesty was probably as a result of the changing scripts. When Quasar's participation in Sunday's race became likely, any owner would have been alarmed. A winner of three Derbies is a formidable opponent, especially if he is housed in the same yard as yours. You would need to counter that threat and Bold Majesty's win on Republic Day provided a perfect weapon. 

Coming to this year's race, all the trainers barring Mallesh Narredu and Karthik Ganapathy have led in an Indian Derby winner. Among the jockeys on the scene, Colm O'Donoghue, David Allan and Y.S. Srinath have ridden a Derby winner previously; others will be seeking their first.

The average rating of the field is about 80, the lowest in last six years. That places the generation in its context. On the other hand, it is also true that every summer/monsoon/winter mainstream Derby winner except Spreadeagle is in the field to make it very competitive.

PAST THE POST 

The Derby Day crowd consists of several people for whom a day at the races is a one-off annual outing. They are there for social reasons but most of them chance their luck. To them, betting on odds-on favourites doesn't provide the adrenaline rush. Which is why short-priced runners often give a better return on Tote on a Derby Day.

When the starter flags them off, the conjecture ends. The moment of truth is upon us. Each one of us has a different scenario in mind about how the race will unfold. One such script is for the lead to change rapidly till Top Commander assumes command and leads them along the back-stretch with Tiger Tops sitting pretty just behind. Tiger Tops collars the front runner and brings the field into the straight as Quasar moves to challenge. This is the deciding moment in the race. Bold Majesty is quickly upsides the duo making the other two shift gears earlier than anticipated. It is then up to Be Safe to show his mettle as he joins the battle approaching the First Enclosure.  The race is now in the hands of racing gods. Is Be Safe the champion that many consider him to be or just an over-hyped idol with feet of clay ? In about fifteen seconds we get to know the answer.