"Is it fair that an older horse needs to give weight to a younger horse ?". The answer to the question depends on whether you believe in the validity of old Admiral Rous's table in today's racing. It has to be said that some cosmetic changes have been made to the original table but by and large it remains as it was when first published over 150 years ago. Some - but by no means all of the objections to its validity were mentioned in the last article. One major objection is that the concept of WFA has never been the subject of a scientific study by the racing authorities.

Such a study, if commissioned, should have two aspects to it. Firstly, it should be possible to determine when the modern Thoroughbred reaches its peak physical development. Of course, each horse is an individual and some horses may attain that peak earlier and others later than the established average. The downside of a such a study could be, as someone has written, that when two scientists get together, they come up with three theories. Still, it would be a start and that would be generally be welcomed. The other would be to carry out a statistical study of past results and see if the WFA has fulfilled its raison d'etre of equalising the winning chances generation-wise.

What is in favour of the existing table, though, is the fact that while questions have been asked, there is no sustained clamour from the people who matter most - breeders, owners and trainers - calling for a re-look. Their acceptance, whether through inertia or a desire not to rock the sailing ship, suggests that the table remains valid to this day.

It is interesting to look at the results of the last ten runnings of Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. This race, run on first Sunday in October at Longchamp, has had a good representation of the Classic crop as well as older horses. 159 horses have contested the race in last 10 years with 69 three year-olds competing against 90 older horses. Seven three year-olds, enjoying a three and a half kg. advantage, have won while the race has gone to an older horse just thrice. The immediate reaction would be that the WFA table is loaded in favour of the Classic crop. Hang on a minute, though. Let's take a slightly closer look at the results:-

2005    3YO Hurricane Run (56.0) beat older Westerner (59.5) by 2 lengths

2006    3YO Rail Link (56.0) beat older Pride (58.0) by a neck

2007    Older Dylan Thomas (59.5) beat older Youmzain (59.5)

2008    3YO filly Zarkava (54.5) beat older Youmzain (59.5) by 2 lengths

2009    3YO Sea The Stars (56.0) beat older Youmzain (59.5) by 2 lengths

2010    3YO Workforce (56.0) beat older Nakayama Festa (59.5) by a head

2011    3YO filly Danedream (54.5) beat 3YO filly Shareta (54.5) by 5 lengths

2012   Older filly Solemia (58.0) beat older Orfevre (59.5)

2013    3YO filly Treve (54.5) beat older Orfevre (59.5) by 5 lengths

2014    Older filly Treve (58.0) beat older Flintshire (59.5)

Over 2400 m., one kg. is often taken as one length. So only those three year-olds who beat an older horse by more than three and a half lengths can be said to have won without the benefit of WFA advantage. On that basis, only Danedream and Treve - thanks to her sex allowance - come out as winners. Which, in turn, means that had they been running without the WFA advantage, only two three year-olds would have won in ten renewals and that would then suggest that the three year-olds do deserve some advanatge and begs the question "How much advantage ?".

Of course, racing is not decided on paper. If the horses had been carrying level weights, the riding tactics would have been different and the race may have unfolded in a different way. This is where we enter into a matter of conjecture. Besides, a statistical analysis requires a sufficient and diverse sample before any conclusions can be drawn and that aspect is best left to the qualified statisticians.

About a month after the Arc comes the Breeders' Cup Turf is U.S.A. which is run over the same distance. This race comes at the end of a busy campaign for the Classic crop and it is not overwhelmingly represented. In fact, in last ten runnings just 13 three year-olds have taken their chance against 91 older horses. Statisticians may choose to disregard the results of this race in which three three year-olds have triumphed:-

2006    3YO Red Rocks (8 st. 10 lbs) beat older Better Talk Now (9 st.) by half a length.

2008    3YO Conduit (8 st. 9 lbs) beat older Eagle Mountain (9 st.) by a length and a half.

2013    3YO Magician (8 st. 10 lbs) beat older filly The Fugue (8 st. 11 lbs) by half a length.

These are early days for the 'open' Invitation Cup but it is interesting to look at the three results we have so far:-

2013    4YO Tintinnabulation (55.0) beat older Ocean and Beyond (59.0) by a length and a half

2014    4YO Alaindair (55.0) beat 4YO Agostini (55.0) by 1 1/4 length and older Tintinnabulation (59.0) by 3 1/2 lengths

2015    4YO Quasar (55.0) beat 4YO Be Safe (55.0) by Neck and older mare Amazing Grace (57.5) by nk + 2 1/4 lengths

The Classic crop has exploited its weight advantage to the hilt and captured all three runnings. At level weights, the older horses would have won, atleast on the paper.

PAST THE POST

At the Asian Racing Federation conference in Hong Kong a couple of years back, there was some talk of instituting Super Gr.1 races. Full details of the proposal are not known and, in any case, nothing seems to have come out of it. Any changes to the established order should follow a detailed study carried out by experts and should not be on the whims and fancies of a select few in a position to usher a change.

Wouldn't it be nice if the Super Gr.1s, if they do eventually see the light of day, are run at level weights with the fairer sex not being entitled for any allowance ?