Three of the last eight runnings of the Kentucky Derby have resulted in victories for the public choice, bringing cheer to the vast throng that is invariably present at Churchill Downs, in Louisville, Kentucky, on the afternoon of the first Saturday in May each year. The 2015 renewal, scheduled for 6:45 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, May 2^nd (4:15 a.m. IST on Sunday, May 3^rd in India) will have a capacity field of 20 three-year-old runners lining up in perfect sunny weather conditions, if the forecast holds good.

The glittering prize, North American racing's most desirable trophy, along with about 60% of the guaranteed $2,000,000 stake money on offer, will obviously go to the connections of the contestant who runs the 10 furlongs faster than his rivals – and that could be very very fast given that this appears to be a vintage year. With no legal bookmakers, the quotes mentioned in the attached card are from the "Morning Line" and are only approximate.

One could safely say that no schooler would look forward to Saturday evening with more anticipation than the California-based Bob Baffert. He fields American Pharoah (by Pioneerof The Nile) for the Zayat Stables of Mr. Ahmed Zayat, an Egyptian businessman based in New Jersey, and Dortmund (by Big Brown), owned by Kaleem Shah, the Virginia-based son of former champion trainer in Western India, S.M. Shah. The former is the current 5 to 2 choice, after having been drawn wide in stall 17, while the latter, better placed in gate # 8, is felt to be a 3 to 1 chance to keep his unbeaten record (from 6 starts) intact.

Both have impeccable credentials. American Pharoah (yes, the second word in his name is incorrectly spelt due to a miscommunication at naming time) is by a horse who was the runner-up in this very same race, and is a splendid individual with a fluent ground-covering action. He has been winning by wide margins – most recently in the Arkansas Derby – and exudes an air of superiority. Only once beaten – on his debut – he needs to be up with the pace, a task made slightly more difficult by the draw. Victor Espinoza, who scored last year with California Chrome, will have to make an early move to get position.

The massive Dortmund has emulated his stablemate by flashing a lot of speed and comes in here off a start-to-finish effort in the Santa Anita Derby. However, given that he fought back in the Robert Lewis Stakes after being passed, he could well be more flexible regarding where he wants to be in the pack. Regular rider Martin Garcia will be aboard. His sire won the first two legs of the Triple Crown and shocked the racing public by trailing home last in the final leg. Due to relative lack of success as a stallion, Big Brown has been "banished" from Kentucky and now plies his trade in New York State. That of course has nothing to do with the fact that Dortmund is clearly very talented – veritably a monster of a horse!

Already a millionaire with 5 wins from 9 starts, the Ramsey's International Star (by Fusaichi Pegasus) is the leader in points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard (which determines which runners actually get to start in the race), but is available at a generous 20 to 1. Michael Maker's ward, now drawn 11 after the defection of another runner, comes in off a hard-fought victory in the Louisiana Derby – often a good guide to placegetters in this race – and will be dropped back early by Miguel Mena. Like Dortmund he is by a sire successful in this very event – Fusaichi Pegasus – who also has a stallion son in India, Ravel, who has made an encouraging start to his second career.

Champion trainer Todd Pletcher, who has only a modest record in the Kentucky Derby (1 from 40), fields a trio in his quest to add to the solitary success he enjoyed five years ago through Super Saver. The 8 to 1 Carpe Diem (by Giant's Causeway) has been spoken of in glowing terms and is the highest earner in the field with $1,519,800 in his bankroll, earned from 4 wins and 1 second (from 5 starts). His successes, which include the Bluegrass Stakes (run this year on dirt) at nearby Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, have prompted leading rider Johnny Velazquez to opt for the Winstar Farm contender. As they are drawn 2, Johnny V. will have to ensure his mount does not get trapped inside by runners veering in from the outside.

Pletcher also sends out Materiality (by Afleet Alex) in stall 3, who shares his unbeaten tag with Dortmund, although he has made only half as many starts and did not race at 2. His most recent public airing was in the Besilu Stables Florida Derby five weeks ago, where he pressed the pace early before taking charge at halfway under a vigorous ride by Johnny V. With that rider choosing his stablemate instead, the way is clear for Javier Castellano, a top rider who however has yet to inscribe his name on the Derby's scroll of honour, to take over the controls.

The consistency (3 from 4) of the trainer's apparent "third string" seems to have been ignored, judging by his quote of 30 to 1. However, Itsaknockout (by Lemon Drop Kid) can be said to have earned himself a starting berth in stall 12 under Luis Saez.  Pletcher also had Stanford (by Malibu Moon) engaged – when that pacesetting colt was drawn 11, he became a late scratch on Thursday as the connections were not too happy with the post position. That allowed Nick Zito's rank outsider Frammento (by Midshipman) to obtain a starting berth, from the widest post – no. 20 – with the others drawn outside Stanford moving "in" by one position.

UAE connections are well represented. Turf writers in North America have often scoffed at the spectacle of UAE Derby winners flying across – so far without even a single placing to show for their efforts from 6 runners – but a closer scrutiny shows that this exotic route is not necessarily an insurmountable handicap. It all depends on the individual! Back in 2000, Greentree Stud's China Visit had finished a fair sixth, beaten about 9 lengths, but ahead of the likes of Captain Steve, War Chant, Trippi, Exchange Rate and Commendable, so that was not a bad attempt.

This year's representative, owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum, brings strong international connections – Mubtaahij (by Dubawi) was bred in Ireland, is trained by a South African (Michael de Kock) and will be ridden by a Belgian (Christophe Soumillon) for his Arab owner! The colt has been formidable (4 from 5) since being switched to the dirt and was a facile winner of Dubai's principal event for three-year-olds at Meydan. The key factor is whether this talented individual can transfer his form halfway across the world. After the draw his trainer commented: "I said we’d be happy with seven or eight and we drew six so we’ve got to be happy".

Godolphin's grey, Frosted (by Tapit) is a son of the hottest sire in North America and has no acclimatization issues, given that he is trained in the USA by Kiaran McLaughlin. The colt may not have scored that often, but 2 wins and 4 seconds from 7 starts is a pretty fair record off which to aim for becoming the first of his coat colour to triumph since Giacomo shocked exactly 10 years ago. Joel Rosario, successful here in 2013 with Orb, will be his pilot and they emerge from a fine victory in that recognized trial, the twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. Drawn 14, Frosted is on offer at 15 to 1.

You might call him an upstart if he topples this field but Richard Violette, Jr.'s Upstart (by Flatter) has been posting some solid efforts in his lead up races. He breezed home in the Holy Bull Stakes in January over Frosted, then was disqualified in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes after accounting for Itsaknockout on the track. And then he made Materiality fight hard for his victory in the Florida Derby and lost nothing in defeat. Drawn 18, the ridgling – none has ever won – has Jose Ortiz up and is a 15 to 1 chance.  

If experience in the saddle is any criterion, then Gary Stevens with three previous visits to the Derby winner's circle is your man. He has teamed up with Simon Callaghan's runaway winner of the Sunland Derby, Firing Line (by Line Of David). Perhaps the lesser-known pedigree and the fact that he beat nothing of note in New Mexico means that Firing Line deserves no better than a 12 to 1 quote, which might be a generous  assessment of his chances given that he has twice been involved in photo finishes with Dortmund. Remember also that Mine That Bird emerged from this particular trial – where he was only fourth – to ultimately wear the bouquet of roses as a 50 to 1 bolt from the blue.

One Canadian-bred, who could well have the Queen's Plate at Woodbine (Toronto) in July at his mercy, ran a promising second in the Bluegrass Stakes behind Carpe Diem. This was Mark Casse's Danzig Moon (by Malibu Moon) who gained ground there despite a wide trip and has the ideal running style, comfortable with sitting fifth or sixth and then trying to take on the leaders. Under Julien Leparoux, he could well belie his 30 to 1 odds from draw no. 5 for owner John Oxley, who tasted success in the Derby previously with Monarchos.

A final comment – there are those who believe in the presence of a jinx. There are a couple to consider – one is the lack of success (0 winners from 44 runners) of those who have top American stallion Storm Cat in their pedigrees! The 2015 field includes 7 with this distinction: American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Dortmund, El Kabeir, Firing Line, Mr. Z and Tencendur. Make of that what you will…. The other is the fact that no horse has scored from gate 17, and though American Pharoah originally drew the # 18 hole, he moves in one spot with the withdrawal of Stanford.

How the race pans out early will of course affect the outcome. There are far too many who are more comfortable on the lead and they might cancel out each other's efforts, leaving the way clear for a "closer". For example, should an outsider prove able to rattle the public choices on the lead, he could set things up for the late finishers. That said, it looks like it is going to be the silver-haired Bob Baffert who will see his ward adorned with the flowers in what promises to be an epic "Run for the Roses".