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AMERICAN PHAROAH SHOOTS FOR TRIPLE CROWN GLORY

By Anil Mukhi | 06 Jun 2015 |


Anil Mukhi

Like last year with California Chrome, we are once again on the threshold of a Triple Crown bid in America, this time through the medium of American Pharoah (by Pioneerof The Nile). There have been 13 failed bids in the 37 years since Affirmed held off Alydar in the Belmont Stakes in 1978, while one potential candidate, I'll Have Another, went wrong the day before the race and could not participate. There have only been 11 previous Triple Crown winners and every one of them had prior experience of racing on the sandy Belmont strip – which American Pharoah does not.

A couple of days ago, a special Post Position Draw at New York's Rockefeller Center for the Belmont Stakes presented by Draftkings, to be run on Saturday, June 6th at 6:50 p.m. Eastern, at Elmont on Long Island, was held. The Bob Baffert-trainee was allotted the No. 5 post position in the starting gate, which is considered ideal by his connections. It may be recalled that the strapping bay colt had started from a wide draw in the Kentucky Derby and thereafter down inside by the rail in the Preakness Stakes, but was able to overcome any disadvantage those spots might have posed.

The question that American Pharoah will now face is whether his style of running – from the front – will be conducive to a winning effort over the gruelling 12-furlongs trip. After all, he will be contesting his third race in five weeks and his energy could be sapped by going too fast too soon. No one doubts his ability – he has beaten all challengers in all his 6 races since blinkers were removed after his debut run. While he has worked well, these morning efforts have come at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, and he has been in New York only since Tuesday of this week.

Should he prevail, there will be widespread cheering and the sport of horse racing would get a boost. On the other hand, should he fail, there will probably be calls for the Triple Crown to be modified as if it is some sort of Holy Grail which must be facilitated by human intervention!

Seven will attempt to stand in the way and shatter the dream. Probably the stiffest opposition to the odds-on favourite will come from the grey Frosted (by Tapit), an inmate of the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin. A decent fourth after a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby, the Godolphin colt will appreciate the added distance. His painstaking trainer offered the following assessment: "American Pharoah has been awesome, but this is his fourth race in eight weeks and we hope it catches up with him. We feel the timing is to our advantage. We need Frosted to have an A-plus race and American Pharaoh to have a B race. We like our chances."

Another challenger exiting the Kentucky Derby and waiting patiently for a rematch is the South African-trained Mubtaahij (by Dubawi). The UAE Derby winner finished eighth in that effort but has been well rested since and is reported to have put up some terrific workouts. A respected columnist from the Daily Racing Form reported: "Mubtaahij looked the best I've seen him over the past 10 days and through a bevy of works. He went five furlongs with Irad Ortiz aboard in 24.53, 36.27, 1:00.97, changed leads nearing the eighth pole, finished willingly without being asked, then galloped out well."

Leading schooler Todd Pletcher fields a pair, of which Materiality (by Afleet Alex) is the better-fancied. This colt was unbeaten before running sixth in the Kentucky Derby, enduring an unlucky trip. As his sire won this very race, he ought to appreciate the trip and could well pose a serious threat. After all, every horse should be excused one bad run.

Tale of Verve (by Tale Of Ekati) ran second to American Pharoah in the Preakness Stakes at 28/1 odds. That effort came on sloppy ground, after a rain storm had drenched the Pimlico track, and was the colt's best-ever effort. He might be able to build on that, although conditions here are likely to be significantly different.

Keen Ice (by Curlin) split Materiality and Mubtaahij when seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Like several others he found adversity in running early there, but finished on well from the rear. Should the front-runners snuff out each other's challenges Keen Ice may well gain ground towards the finish.

Favourites have a pathetic record in recent runnings of this race – they score at about half the normal rate for best-fancied runners in all races. The other side of this coin is the fact that rank outsiders have often raised their game and upset the Belmont Stakes field. As such, one must consider that the remaining runners also have some sort of chance.

The complete field is given below:

2015 Belmont Stakes Post Positions

Post

Horse

Trainer

Jockey

Odds

1

Mubtaahij

Mike De Kock

Irad Ortiz Jr.

10-1

2

Tale of Verve

Dallas Stewart

Gary Stevens

15-1

3

Madefromlucky

Todd Pletcher

Javier Castellano

12-1

4

Frammento

Nick Zito

Mike Smith

30-1

5

American Pharoah

Bob Baffert

Victor Espinoza

3-5

6

Frosted

Kiaran McLaughlin

Joel Rosario

5-1

7

Keen Ice

Dale Romans

Kent Desormeaux

20-1

8

Materiality

Todd Pletcher

John Velazquez

6-1