Instituted in 1984, the Pune Derby will see its 32nd running this Sunday. In all, 13 favourites have justified the confidence reposed in them. Coming to the last five years, two favourites (Ocean and Beyond and Jeremiah) have won while Jeremiah is the only highest rated runner to be successful. Five 'got-abroads' have crossed the winning line first in the last seven runnings and as there are three of them in the fray, it is appropriate to start with them.

Continental (Rip Van Winkle - Samsa) is the highest rated of the 'got-abroad' trio. Trained by Pesi Shroff, the dark bay gelding running in the colours of the Mistrys of Manjri Stud, met the first defeat of his brief career when Jefferson reined him in close home on his last start in the S.A. Poonawalla Multi-Million, Gr.3 over a mile. He had won his previous two starts. Continental is from the first crop of Ballydoyle Champion 3YO Miler Rip Van Winkle who started racing in 2014. His early runners were promising and his stud fee was upped to €25,000 for the 2015 season. His second crop, however, has not been of the same calibre. Samsa was a useful miler in France winning four races which included a hat-trick at 2. Of her two foals abroad, one has a win over 2400 m. in France. She was bought at Arqana Sale in December 2011 by Anthony Stroud for €28,000. Samsa's obvious appeal to any breeder must have been that her third dam is a three-parts sister to the great racemare Dahlia. Rip Van Winkle did win the Juddmonte International Stakes, Gr.1 over 2000 m. and this branch of the Frizette family has plenty of class and stamina. Continental tried to win his last race from and to end and was found wanting. Ridden in check, he could get the extra 400 m. on Sunday.

Jigsaw (Archipenko - Silk Runner) chased Continental in the S.A. Poonawalla Multi-Million, Gr.2 but was quickly under the whip coming into the straight and faded away to finish fifth. It was his first run at Pune after having won over 2000 m. in Bangalore so the run should bring him on. His sire Archipenko was a stablemate of the Kunigal stallion Admiralofthefleet, first at Ballydoyle and later in Mike de Kock's yard. A Gr.1 winner from a mile to 2000 m., he stands at Lanwades Stud for a fee of £10,000 and has produced a Gr.1 winner over 2400 m. in Madame Chiang. Jigsaw's dam Silk Runner was picked up for a mere €2,500 at Goff's November 2011 Sale. She had six starts at 2 and 3 and was unplaced. Her dam did not race but is a half-sister Legal Case and La Sky (dam of the Oaks winner Love Divine and grandam of the St. Leger winner Sixties Icon). This is the Sister Sarah branch of the elite Pretty Polly family.

Just last Saturday, Intelligence (Rip Van Winkle - Aurora Aurealis) came out of the maidens over a mile on her fourth star. Aurora Aurealis was covered, like Jacqueline, by Glory of Dancer in 2010 and two of them travelled to Ireland via U.S.A. Aurora Aurealis's foal born in Ireland was called Tithonus and he raced twice  at 2 and 3 for his breeders before he was sold for €4,200. He is still racing in Ireland but is yet to win. Aurora Aurealis, a black-type winner in India for the Dhunjibhoys, was a daughter of the brilliant Indiscretion and looks a likely pacemaker for the connection's better rated Rigoletto. Just for the record, the AWDP (Average Winning Distances of Progeny) of the sires of the 'got-abroads' are - Archipenko (9.9 fur) and Rip Van Winkle (8.7 fur). It needs to be stressed, though,  that all stallions sire some runners who win well away from the AWDP.

Like Continental,  Rigoletto (Kingda Ka - Highland Ghillie) is trained by Shroff and is a winner of two of his starts. Unlike Continental, though, his loss was sandwiched between his two wins. He won on his debut at Mumbai in the J.D. & Peggy Banatwalla Trophy, once an important pointer to future champions, while his last start was an easy course and distance victory. On his second start, he was half a length shy of Fearless Nadia - well beaten in the S.A. Poonawalla Multi Million, Gr.2 and half a length ahead of Mogadishu whose journey south for the Jayachamaraja Golf Club  Mysore 2000 Guineas, Gr.3 brought little joy. He is a half-brother to Cabriolet and Berlusconi who were second and third in this race in their time while their unplaced dam is a full-sister to Artois who won this race and a half-sister to Zurbaran, the Indian Turf Invitation Cup, Gr.1 winner. While there is plenty of stamina in the dam line, Kingda Ka is yet to have a good winner over 2000 m. Just a few days ago his daughter Woman O War's unbeaten run was halted in the Deccan Derby, Gr.1 while last year his son Zachary, better backed than the winner Quasar, failed to make it on the board in this race. Undoubtedly, sooner or later, Kingda Ka will sire a good winner over 2000 m. Will it be Rigoletto on Sunday ? He could be but it is difficult to be bullish about it.

The other course and distance winner is Bullrun, a China Visit half brother to the consistent but short running Your Royal Majesty (by Multidimensional). He has won both his starts in Pune and is seeking a hat-trick in the big race. A possible surprise packet, given his consistency and the course and distance victory. Bullrun's dam You Are My Miracle won her only start over 1200 m. at 4 but is a full-sister Sweetheart who won over 2400 m. and 2200 m. at Hyderabad. Their grandam is a half-sister to Mary Bankes whose daughter Scenic Royale won this race in 1999.

No trainer with runners in the race on Sunday betters the record of  S.K. Sunderji who has three wins to his credit. (Desert Warrior, Desert Carnival and Ocean and Beyond). He will saddle Magnificence (Arazan - Burning Fire) and Multiglory (Multidimensional - Reflected Glory) who have similar records with two wins from five starts. Magnificence was beaten just a short-head by Rigoletto in Mumbai and his dam is a winner over 2600 m in France. However, Burning Fire's previous five foals have won just three races between them and none beyond 1400 m. Magnificence, though, has won twice over a mile. P. Trevor was astride the gelding in both his wins but the jockey may not be available to ride him on Sunday. Multiglory's two wins, one in Mumbai and one on his last start in Pune, have been progressive with the first one over 1400 m. and the next over 1800 m. We know that Multidimensional can sire good horses over this trip and Multiglory's grandam is none other than Allaire who counts the Kingfisher Indian Oaks, Gr.1 and Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 among her seven wins.

Bold Appeal and  Dancing Lord are both attempting the tough task of winning a Derby with just one win against their names. They have won over just 1200 m. previously. Pink Panther (Phoenix Tiger - Peruvian Witch), who is still a maiden, will carry the second colours of the Mistrys and looks a possible pacemaker for Continental. Shroff will saddle two runners (Continental and Rigoletto) while Sunderji is also double-handed with Magnificence and Multiglory. The Dhunjibhoy brace (Rigoletto and Intelligence) is opposed by the Mistrys' pair of Continental and Pink Panther. 

Nanoli Stud, owned by the Dhunjibhoys, has been sponsoring this race continuously for the last 19 years. The spoils have gone to the sponsor on five occasions through Indictment, Tobler, Artois, Venus Arising and Aquilo. In 2006 and 2008, they had no runner while Picasso (2011) and Zachary (2014) failed to come on board. Otherwise, they have either had the winner or one that has placed in the first three.

PAST THE POST

Quasar won this race last year. Since then he has run 11 times and won nine races including five Gr.1 events. In doing so, he has, at least temporarily, muted the din about the hoodoo attached to the race. It is difficult to know why or when the myth originated. It grows over a period of time and hardens into an unshakable belief. One possible reason is that winners of this race have not, as many would be quick to point out, gone to greater glory in their subsequent careers. To some extent, this is borne out by statistics. Only eight winners of the Pune Derby have subsequently won a Gr.1 Classic which works out to 25.8 % strike rate. On the other hand, the Mysore Derby winners have a percentage of 47.5 while the strike rate for the Deccan Derby is slightly lower at 45.5 %.

Statistics, however, are like a kaleidoscope. Give it slight nudge and you see a different pattern. If you change the parameters and look only for Indian Classic winners/ Invitation Cup winners, the Pune Derby doesn't fare badly at all:-

      Pune Derby   - 8 Indian Classic/Invitation Cup winners including 3 Indian Derby winners, 4 Invitation Cup

winners and 2 Indian Triple Crown winners.

      Deccan Derby - 6 Indian Classic/Invitation Cup winners including 4 Indian Derby winners and 3 Invitation 

Cup winners.

      Mysore Derby - 5 Indian Classic/ Invitation Cup winners including 2 Indian Derby winners and 3 Invitation  Cup winners.

In the last five years, the average rating of the Derby field at Pune has been just 60.5 whereas it has been 73.5 at Mysore and  67.5 at Hyderabad. In fact, Pune's average was pulled up a bit because last year when Quasar won it was 67.9, way above the previous four runnings.  There are many reasons for this. Pune does not have Classic pattern like Hyderabad and Mysore. The traditional lead-up races for the Pune Derby are the F.D. Wadia Trophy,  General Rajendrasinhji Trophy and S.A. Poonawalla Multi-Million. The Rajendrasinhji has this year been rescheduled to be run after the Pune Derby while the other two races have been downgraded from Gr.2 to Gr.3. This year, three top 3YOs - Phoenix Tiger, Costa del Sol and Jefferson are missing from the line-up, the average field rating has dropped down to just 53.7 and there isn't a single black-type winner in the line-up. A poor quality race produces poor class winners. There is no mumbo jumbo or voodoo about it.