With the filly Cameron already at Mahalakshmi for a tilt at the Indian Oaks, it leaves just four contenders, all colts/geldings, with a realistic chance of winning the 58th renewal of Calcutta Derby, Gr.1 on Sunday. Heading that list of four is the southern challenger Desert God (Burden of Proof - Running Flame), a distance clear as far as ratings are concerned. It would be wrong to rely solely on ratings because just last month, he won the Calcutta 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 from Multitude (Multidimensional - Haedi) and Setaflame (China Visit -  Set Aside) and the three of them were covered by just over a length at the finish at level weights. An absentee in that race was Captain Cook (Admiralofthefleet - Polenta). Captain Cook, winner of the Calcutta Monsoon Derby, Gr.2, and Setaflame have taken turns beating each other and are about par on the basis of their previous encounters. The frontline quartet is hence well matched and victory will be decided by race tactics and who tackles the mile and a half best for none of them has yet ventured over that distance.

Desert God won the Calcutta 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 by going past Setaflame midway up the straight and then holding the late finishing Multitude and Setaflame who kept on doggedly. The verdict was a length and a quarter and nose. Prior to that, Desert God had won the Deccan Derby, Gr.1 at Malakpet beating Cameron comfortably. In between, he was a close third in Mogadishu's Mysore Derby, Gr.1. So we know that Desert God gets 2000 m. Desert God is a half-brother to Borsalino and a full-brother to Sur La Tete and Torch Bearer. Borsalino won two monsoon derbies but never won beyond 2000 m.; Sur La Tete did win the Golconda Oaks, Gr.2 over 2400 m. but it was a weak contest while Torch Bearer's two wins were over a mile. Torch Bearer was third in this very race last year and later he was a faraway second to Quasar in the Bangalore St. Leger, Gr.2.  Their dam, the multi-Classic winning Running Flame, counted the Kingfisher Indian Oaks, Gr.1, the Wills Indian Turf Invitation Cup, Gr.1, President of India Gold Cup, Gr.1 and Golconda St. Leger, Gr.2 among her victories and undoubtedly stayed comfortably. Of her five foals abroad, Maratha Warrior won over 2600 m. in the French provinces while Jhansi Ki Rani had a bracket over 1200 m. as a 2YO. Jhansi Ki Rani died young so we do not know how far she would have gone. Radical Attraction, Ethereal Flame and Miss Doodle did not win but were campaigned over galloping trips. Plenty of evidence to suggest that there is stamina for lesser contests. The stamina has not been shown at Gr.1 level so far in India so Desert God will have to be a cut above his siblings to bring home the bacon. What will undoubtedly be in his favour is that his trainer knows this clan well, is an excellent tactician and that he will be ridden by a competent, experienced jockey in David Allan. Versatility in styles of running -- he can lead or come from behind -- is another advantage that Desert God enjoys.

Captain Cook has beaten Setaflame by three-parts of a length once and by three and a half lengths once (Calcutta Monsoon Derby, Gr.2). Setaflame has reversed the verdict by half a length once and three and a half lengths once, his wins coming at 1400 m. and a mile. The connections probably reckoned that their horse was better over a longer trip and hence Captain Cook did not run in the Calcutta 2000 Guineas, Gr.2. To run on Sunday, a hefty final entry fee of Rs. 15 lakhs has been forked out and to recover that the gelding will have to finish in the first three. Admiralofthefleet won the Aktiv Kapital UK Ltd. Dee Stakes, Gr.3 over 2100 m. and is the sire of Cameron who scored in the Calcutta Oaks, Gr.3 over 2400 m. Captain Cook's dam Polenta did not race; she is by Sunday Silence — out of a mare by Polish Precedent average winning distance of progeny 9.4 fur -- out of a mare by the Epsom Derby winner Snow Knight. The next dam is by Northern Dancer. This is a classy family -- that of Snow Bride, Lammtara, etc. -- and stamina should not be an issue. Having had just a mock race for two months is a matter of greater concern.

When Multitude and Captain Cook came up against each other last January in the Indian Champagne Stakes, Gr.3, the former spared 2 kgs. and two lengths plus to the latter. A year later, that equation may or may not hold good over 2400 m. There is no doubt about Multidimensional's ability to get mile and a half Classic winners. The same, however, cannot be said about Multitude's dam line. The colt himself has not ventured beyond a mile so far.  Haedi, the dam of Multitude, is bred on the cross which produced Workforce, a winner of Investec Epsom Derby, Gr.1 as well as the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Gr.1 in the same year. She was purchased for a mere 9,000 euros at Goff's and her not having been covered could have been a reason for the low price. Haedi raced just thrice at 3 in England and won over 1200 m. on her last start in Godolphin colours. Her two foals in India -- Halle (by China Visit) and Frankanella (by Razeen) -- are ordinary winners up to a mile. Haedi's dam Star Express is by Sadler's Wells out of a mare by the Arc winner Star Appeal. She did win over 2400 m. but it was a three-runner apprentice race in French provinces. As a broodmare, Star Express has not been great; three of her eight foals are ordinary winners up to a mile. A look at Haedi's catalogue page shows the absence of a Gr.1 winner or a black-type type winner over a distance. A slow pace might suit Multitude better. Another cause hopes is that Multidimensional has on occasions surprised with good winners from unlikely sources, Roses in Bloom (Golconda Derby, Gr.1) being a prime example.

Setaflame is a half-brother to the celebrated Set Alight. He has been a model of consistency having won three of his six starts and placed in the remaining three. His sire China Visit has had a bit of a revival with his 2012 crop which includes Bullrun and Star Formation. Setaflame's full-brother My Friend Paul won five races but all up to a mile. The other foals of Set Aside, a winner over 2000 m., have all been by Razeen and two of them -- Set Alight and River Knight -- won over 2400 m. Set Aside's three-parts relatives Our Dynasty, Allez Indi and Star Alliance placed in black-type races over 2400 m. so Setaflame will not be uncomfortable over the Derby distance. The question remains whether he will be allowed to run his own race or be assigned to set the pace for Multitude since both run in common ownership interests. Vijay Singh knows how to win a Derby on his local course; Snowscape (10/1) and Snowdrift (11/2) were not absolutely certain to get a mile and half and yet they romped home in style on the big day. Neither Snowscape nor Snowdrift won a race beyond 2000 m. other than the Caclutta Derby in their careers.

It is interesting to study the trends of the past ten years. Four favourites have won while five outstation challengers and five Usha-breds have scored. Trainer Vijay Singh has sent out four winners, Christopher Alford has ridden four and three fillies have triumphed. The most telling statistic, though, is that all but one of the last ten Calcutta Derby winners had also won on their previous start. Let's take a look at Vijay Singh's last four Calcutta Derby winners. Aristotle went into the Derby on back of a victory in the Calcutta 2000 Guineas;  Regal Connection, Snowscape and Snowdrift only placed in the '2000' but had a winning run before the Derby. Regal Connection and  Snowdrift won the Calcutta Gold Cup while Snowscape had a win over a mile on the New Year's Day. A New Year's Day winner running in the Derby after only a short gap has been a ploy followed by Vijay Singh with Argiano and Acrider in the last two Calcutta Derbies without success. Different horses, different routes.

As usual,  Vijay Singh will field a posse of runners with six of the ten runners hailing from his yard. Barring Multitiude and Setaflame, others are like the 'picadores' in a bull fight; meant to distract and divert attention. What is on record, though, is that the trainer's last five winners in this race have been ridden by C. Alford. Whether the ageing knight still gets the vote of confidence from the trainer is the big question. The average rating of the field is only 61.4 which is well below the average -- 77.3 -- of recent years.

The Classics so far this season have been dominated by Kunigal Stud which has won all the three at Calcutta and two at Bangalore. Usha Stud has won just one but that was a 'biggie' at Mahalakshmi in the Eat India Company Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 where it had a 1-2. That -- and a few other placings -- has kept Usha Stud within hailing distance of the leader. On Sunday, the two nurseries will be at it again with Kunigal represented by Desert God and Captain Cook taking on half a dozen Usha-breds. It, is an accepted principle of warcraft that quality of weapons and not the numbers which are crucial to the outcome. On that score, the southern nursery has the edge.

When a horse is all out to win a race of this nature, it takes all out of him and sometimes leaves him so drained that he deflates like a pricked balloon. That enables some other runner, ridden more circumspectly, to snare an unlikely place. That is the reason why just four horses have been discussed, knowing fully well that theoretically every horse has a chance to win. Nelstons and Noble Eagles are always there to upset apple carts !

PAST THE POST

Today, it is easy to forget that the early editions of this race were contested over 2000 m. The first winner over 2400 m. was Mr. A.K. Thampy's Mossy Bear in 1968. Raja of Nazargunj's Rising Bell was the first filly to win this race in 1960 and she won the race on a successful objection against the on-course winner Ghazi. Exactly thirty years later, Yerevan (J. Lowe) won the race in a close finish from Aspirant (R. Corner), Wind Song (G. Baxter) and Tangiers (P. Shroff). The riders of the second, third and fourth placed horses all objected against the winner. The objections were upheld and Yerevan was relegated to the fourth place.

Just the previous year, there had been that memorable dead-heat between two greys -- Aphroze and Zara Shah -- bred at Poonawalla Farms. Aphroze won in the colours of Mr. & Mrs. C.M. Varma while a quarter share in Zara Shah belonged to Mr. B.M. Varma. Mr. C.M. Varma and and Mr. B.M. Varma were brothers !

What addition to the folklore is in store for us on Sunday?