Not since 1948, when the Idar-owned filly Jeanne d'Arc triumphed over her 21 rivals, has such a big field of runners accepted for the Blue Riband of the Indian Turf. The large field has brought down the average field rating to 81.75 which is slightly lower than the last six year's average. (Statistically, the chances of a horse winning a race of this kind with a rating below the average field rating are just about 7 %). In 73 runnings so far, 33 favourites have obliged for a healthy average of about 45 %. The strike rate this millennium, though, is rather poor with just two -- fillies Jacqueline and In The Spotlight -- winning.

FINAL ENTRIES

Four horses have been entered at the final stage by paying the substantial late entry fee of Rs. 6,00,000. Finishing within first six will enable their connections to recover that amount and that must be their minimum expectation. B Fifty Two (Phoenix Tower - Baileys On Line) is a winner of just two races -- though he may have had three to his credit had the objection been overruled when he last ran -- and none of them beyond a mile. He is yet to race in black-type race, too. Obviously, his connections have seen something to warrant a late entry. His sire is still looking for his first black-type winner over the Derby distance but the gelding himself belongs to Reg Hollingsworth-developed Ka-Lu-A family which is known for stamina. Brilliant Cut was beaten in the dying moments of Garuda Bangalore Derby, Gr.1 by Angel Dust who is not running here. Earlier, he had won the Bangalore 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 but before that he just missed the board in the blanket finish of Mogadishu's Mysore Derby, Gr.1. Mogadishu being beaten in Golconda Derby, Gr.1 last Sunday doesn't exactly enhance his chance.   Setaflame has been beaten twice by Desert God in his last two outings. He attempted start-to-finish tactics in the Calcutta 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 and tried to come from behind in the Calcutta Derby, Gr.1 but the result was the same. Those two runs though show that he is not far off Desert God irrespective of the ratings. He is one of the three runners in which Mr. D.A. Nanda has an interest -- Colombiana and Ostwind are the other two -- and his pecking order and place in the scheme of things remains unclear.

Sea Lord (Admiralofthefleet - Loch Katrine) will be the only runner in Dr. Vijay Mallya's colours and on that score alone he deserves attention. Captain Cook, Cameron, Angel Dust and Amazing Charm looked more likely to carry the Mallya standard at the start of the winter season but have fallen away for one reason or the other. Sea Lord, though, has unobtrusively worked his way into the contention. His second to King Charles in the Golconda 2000 Guineas, Gr.2 is now looking much better. He was third in the Ruia behind Columbiana and Phoenix Tiger and, having raced just five times so far in his career, he has much scope for improvement. His high Dosage figures and fact that he has won both his races only at 1400 m. are not the best advertisement for his stamina but he is beautifully bred.

CLASS AND STAMINA

It is said often that it takes a horse with a right blend of class and stamina to win a Derby and last Sunday's result of  the Golconda Derby, Gr.1 illustrates this. The only horse in the field who had won over the distance was Jigsaw and he had the lowest Dosage figures underlining his staying prowess. But he was rated only 64 and was beaten by King Charles who had higher dosage figures but also a much higher rating (101). King Charles also had his brother in blood Rigoletto running and as blood brothers they had the same Dosage figures. Here again, the higher rating of King Charles (101) prevailed over the lower rating of Rigoletto (68).  On the other hand, lower rated Jigsaw finished ahead of higher rated Rigoletto, possibly because of his better staying ability.  It is necessary for the ratings and dosage figures to be true and there are times when they are not.

RATINGS

In the thread "Golkonda Derby Choice" on HORSE TALK, it has been lucidly brought out by "sun" how horses which have had their ratings boosted by their performances against Woman O War have not lived up to them. This Sunday we have two such horses in the fray -- Desert God and Star Formation. Fortunately, both of them have other form lines on which to base their calibre. First is the five-horse blanket finish of Mogadishu's Mysore Derby, Gr.1 which featured both of them; then we have Desert God beating Colombiana narrowly in the Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 and, of course, there is Myrtlewood beating Star Formation by about four lengths in the "1000". Interpret these form lines according your system and parameters and you will end up with about 8 to 10 horses in a band of 10-12 points. Which is what makes this year's Derby so intriguing.

Some general comments on the ratings. Desert God twice beat Multitude and Setaflame by almost the same margin so the three of them should be much closer together than the figures as they stand now. (Multitude has subsequently been put up to 104 after his run behind Dare To Dream and since Setaflame was twice on the haunches of Multitude, he should be on a figure of 100 or thereabouts).  Phoenix Tiger and Costa del Sol fought out a stirring finish in the "2000" and Colombiana held Phoenix Tiger in the Ruia so the trio are tightly banded in actual running.

MAIN CONTENDERS

A Gr.1 winner but still without a Classic win, Costa del So -- likely to be partnered by James Doyle --has been very consistent and progressive, never out of 1-2 in his eight starts and gradually stepping up in distance from 1200 m. on his maiden win to breaking the Mahalakshmi 2000 m. track record on his last outing. Despite good Dosage figures, there is no certainty about his getting 2400 m.  His Oratorio half-brother Moonwalk in Paris is a Gr.3 winner in the Godolphin colours but Saeed bin Suroor never sent him beyond a mile. Their dam and grandam did not race. On his catalogue page you will find the brilliant sprinters Agnes World and Hishi Akebono and star milers like Dubai Destination and Librettist. The only black-type stayer that catches the eye on that page is Agog, a full-brother to his dam. Agog won a Listed race in France over 2500 m.

Myrtlewood will be attempting to become only the third filly -- after Rose Royal and Jacqueline -- to win the "1000"-Oaks-Derby treble. She has yet not been beaten at Mahalakshmi. While another confirmatory win over 2400 m. may be necessary to end any lingering questions about her stamina, her two stylish Classic wins could see her being installed as the favourite. Eighteen fillies have started the Derby carrying the public purse with exactly half of them bringing the bacon home. In the Oaks, she came "via Byculla", straightened up for the final run at 400m. on the wide outside, challenged the front runners at 300m., was clear at 200m. and won by four lengths without her jockey having to do much. That was exceptional acceleration.The most important question in Myrtlewood's case is, "How well has she recovered from her Oaks run ?". Myrtlewood is trained by Pesi Shroff as is Costa del Sol who has common interests with Phoenix Tiger and Airco trained by different trainers to complicate the matters.

In 1999, Running Flame won the Kingfisher Indian Oaks, Gr.1 from Supervite by six and a half lengths. Two weeks later, she could only finish third in the Derby behind Saddle Up (subsequently disqualified) and Supervite with Dr. Mallya's filly over-turning the Oaks running by a stunning eight lengths. Since then, her two sons -- Borsalino and Torch Bearer -- have failed in their attempts to make up for their dam's reverse. Desert God will attempt to do so on what is the 17th anniversary of Running Flame's Derby defeat which was also run on 7 February. What gives Desert God a better chance is that he comes this year with a better winter form than that which Borsalino and Torch Bearer had. Unlike In The Spotlight, Borsalino and Torch Bearer, whom Padmanabhan brought straight to Mumbai after their runs in the Calcutta Derby,  Desert God went back to his home base after the Calcutta Derby. How significant is that ?

Colombiana was beaten just half a length in Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 during the monsoons by Desert God. That and winning the Ruia from Phoenix Tiger suggests that he should be in the fighting line. He has been almost as consistent as Costa del Sol with 1-2 in all races bar the "2000". It is also true that he hasn't won back to back races so far.  Something suggests that with three good runners in the line-up, Mr. Arun Nanda is gearing up to re-enact the Philanderer-Red Chieftan ploy which brought about the downfall of Royal Tern in the Invitation Cup.

Star Formation ran dead last in the Indian Oaks but that dismal run is explained by the fact that her saddle slipped during the race. She ought to be seen in a better light on Sunday but winning appears improbable at best. Phoenix Tiger ought to finish ahead of her.

PAST THE POST

No one trained more Indian Oaks winners than Uttam Singh. He sent out seven of them beginning with Lady Madonna in 1975. Then came Highland Rule in 1980 and Potential Champion a year later. There was a gap of just one week between the Indian Oaks and the Indian Derby in those days and no owner, however high profile, would have suggested to Uttam Singh that those fillies should run in the Indian Derby. Uttam Singh was known variously as  "Stewards' Trainer", "Fillies' Specialist" or "Mr. Patient". He took his time with his horses and ran them only when when he felt that they were ready. By the time Marchetta won the Indian Oaks in 1984, the interval between the Oaks and the Derby had increased to two weeks and so it was when Silver Haven came home the winner in 1986. Still, Marchetta and Silver Haven remained in their stalls when the Derby was run.

The first Indian Oaks winner trained by Uttam Singh to run in the Indian Derby was Midnight Madness in 1989 when the gap was still two weeks. Midnight Madness was owned by Mr. Shapoor Mistry who had entered racing in a big way in mid-1880s, acquired Manjri Stud, and Riyahi's daughter was his first Indian Derby runner. She was fourth in Exhilaration's race. Uttam Singh once said that he reluctantly agreed to run the filly in the Derby because he didn't want to dampen his young owner's enthusiasm. "But", he added, "It was my mistake". His last Oaks winner was Academic in 1993, who did race in the Derby but only because that year there was a five week gap after the Oaks to the Derby.

Talking about running Indian Oaks winners in the Derby, Uttam Singh mentioned that what a winning run takes out of a filly is very hard to judge, no matter how impressively she has won. A winning horse has adrenaline -- the word he used was "josh" -- pumping through the veins and is more likely to over exert than a losing horse who, in most cases, has stopped giving his best. Fifty two fillies have attempted the Oaks-Derby double but only nine have bagged it.  Seven fillies who had won the Indian Oaks by four lengths or more -- Abide, Busy Lizzie, Golden Treasure, Rhythm, Running Flame, Allaire and Smashing -- failed in their double bid.  

That is biggest hurdle that Myrtlewood has to overcome. She is fortunate that Pesi Shroff is one of the nine trainers to have successfully completed the Oaks-Derby double.