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DUBAI WORLD CUP AT THE MERCY OF AMERICAN HOPES

By Anil Mukhi | 25 Mar 2016 |


Anil Mukhi

It's two decades since this writer saw the great Cigar pounding down the straight of Dubai's Nad-Al-Sheba track, grimly grinding the resolute challenge of Soul Of The Matter into the dust, and thus becoming the first-ever winner of the Dubai World Cup (Gr.1-2000 m.). Of course, it's well known that since then the venue has shifted to the state-of-the-art Meydan Racecourse, while the surface has varied from the original sandy kind of "dirt" to Tapeta and now to conventional dirt, exactly like an American racetrack.

With conditions more in favour of US-schooled horses, their number has rebounded after a period in which participation was scant and results modest. In the five "Tapeta" years, the only American-trained winner was the versatile Animal Kingdom while the likes of Gio Ponti, Royal Delta and Game On Dude failed to adapt. This year as many as five top-notchers from across the Atlantic are in the fray and it is from within this group that the winner is almost certain to emerge.

Apart from this quintet, seven others representing France, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the host country, the United Arab Emirates, are in contention, bringing the field size to exactly one dozen international performers. The 21st renewal of the world's richest race (worth a total of $10 million) is to be run under lights at 9:00 p.m. local (10:30 p.m. IST) on Saturday evening (March 26th).

A run-through of the form of the contenders for the night's feature, in order of card number, follows:

1. Keen Ice (by Curlin) – trained in USA by Dale Romans, to be ridden by Ryan Moore

One of only five horses to have beaten US Triple Crown hero American Pharoah in his lifetime, this game performer has the world's best jockey on board and is good enough to win at his best – but he has not been at his best of late! He has not scored since that historic upset in the Travers Stakes, but his connections feel the pace of his recent starts has been his undoing and are expecting a better performance behind what is likely to be a faster tempo. The odds are 16 to 1 against his emulating his sire, who scored in this race in 2008.

2. Mshawish (by Medaglia d'Oro) – trained in USA by Todd Pletcher, to be ridden by Frankie Dettori

This consistent runner represents a powerful combination of professionals. His rider already has a trio of victories in this race under his belt, while the fact that his trainer – who rarely ships a runner this far – has sent the six-year-old on such a long journey by itself suggests confidence. What's more, the Al Shaqab-owned runner is coming off a pair of victories at Gulfstream Park this season, including the Gr.1 Donn Handicap, and has previous experience at Meydan (third to Solow in the Dubai Turf last year). He is on offer at 10 to 1.

3. Gun Pit (by Dubawi) – trained in Hong Kong by Caspar Fownes, to be ridden by Joao Moreira

A rare Hong Kong-based runner over dirt, he ran a decent race over course and distance three weeks ago when second to Special Fighter, who re-opposes here. On that form, the five-year-old is felt to be well-held, as the 33 to 1 odds testify. Note however that his sire has already produced two previous winners of the Dubai World Cup in Monterosso (2012) and Prince Bishop (last year).

4. Mubtaahij (by Dubawi) – trained by Mick De Kock (representing South Africa), to be ridden by Christoffe Soumillon

Rewind a year and you would have seen this talented performer occupying centre-stage in the UAE Derby, which he won in convincing manner – by eight lengths – on the corresponding night in 2015. Since then he has somewhat lost his way, but with the same team in charge here, a better effort is expected from the 16 to 1 chance. His trainer explained: "Super Saturday was, on the face of it, disappointing but the more you look at the race, all the dirt races on that day even, there seemed a definite bias towards those on the pace. I can say he is spot on for Saturday and we expect him to run a big race."

5. Special Fighter (by Teofilo) – trained in the U.A.E. by Musabah Al Muhairi, to be ridden by Fernando Jara

This Meydan specialist is one of just a couple of runners representing the "home team" following a stint in Britain with Mark Johnston. He comes off a win in Round 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge on this track three weeks ago, which was perhaps his best-ever effort. But the overall level of his form is lower than required for a winner of this challenging race and the American challengers should pack too much firepower. Supporters should be able to get 14 to 1 in the betting market – and could see him making the running.

6. Candy Boy (by Candy Ride) – trained in the U.A.E. by Doug Watson, to be ridden by Pat Dobbs  

Not seen under Rules since finishing fourth in this very event last year, this five-year-old has previously mixed it up with the likes of Bayern, California Chrome and Shared Belief when trained in the US by John Sadler. However he has never beaten anything of that calibre and the long layoff has to be a worry. He is the second of the locally-trained participants and is the longest-priced runner in the field at 66 to 1.

7. Vadamos (by Monsun) – trained in France by Andre Fabre, to be ridden by Vincent Cheminaud

One needs to sit up and take note when a trainer with such vast experience as Andre Fabre sends a challenger outside his "comfort zone". Amongst the last of the runners by his late and much-lamented sire, Vadamos would hypothetically add an amazing chapter to the stellar record of Monsun, whose progeny have captured top races around the world from the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Breeders Cup Turf and Ascot Gold Cup to the Melbourne Cup. Should he take to the track, he could put up a bold show at 20 to 1.

8. Hokko Tarumae (by King Kamehameha) – trained in Japan by Katsuichi Nishiura, to be ridden by Hideaki Miyuki

Representing the Land of the Rising Sun, he is a Grade 1 winner on dirt in Japan, and was fifth in the Dubai World Cup last year after leading early. It may be recalled that Victoire Pisa had provided that nation's turf with a shock victory in this race, back in 2011, but it seems unlikely that Hokko Tarumae will follow in his footsteps. He has a significant amount of leeway to bridge to match the class of some of his rivals on this repeat international assignment, and this is reflected in his 20 to 1 odds.

9. Frosted (by Tapit) – trained in USA by Kiaran McLaughlin, to be ridden by William Buick

Godolphin Racing is aiming for a seventh Dubai World Cup through the medium of this talented runner, a grey son of America's No. 1 sire. The subject of favourable reviews based on his track-work and recent 5-lengths success at Meydan (in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge) in record time, Frosted will need the pace scenario to work out so that he has something left in the tank in the closing stages. His trainer spent several years based in Dubai so knows the ropes, while his pilot is the retained rider for the outfit and was aboard in his last victorious effort. The package is the 5 to 2 second favourite and must be on anyone's short-list.

McLaughlin said: “We have a great facility here at Al Marmoon and it is perfect for us. It is so peaceful and the horses are just totally relaxed and thriving. We thought Frosted would need that first run and planned to run him again on Super Saturday, but he was so good in that win we have kept him fresh for Saturday."

10. Hoppertunity (by Any Given Saturday) – trained by Bob Baffert, to be ridden by Flavien Prat

Never off the board in 16 starts from his base in California, this consistent colt would surely not want to squander the opportunity! One of his best career efforts brought him a win in a Grade 1, otherwise he has pretty much been operating at Grade 2/Grade 3 level. Thus, even though he has almost always put up a triple-digit effort (ratings-wise), he seems to lack just that little edge that distinguishes a leading racehorse from a champion. Baffert has a pair of previous successes in this race but the odds are 16 to 1 against his recording a third.

11. California Chrome (by Lucky Pulpit) – trained in USA by Art Sherman, to be ridden by Victor Espinoza

Arguably in the best form of his life, this game performer showed his readiness for the tough task ahead with a clinical display in a handicap at Meydan late last month, where he wore a visor instead of blinkers. The former Kentucky Derby winner was surprisingly beaten last year in this race by a runner (Prince Bishop) not thought previously to belong in the same ballpark. He is poised to go one better this time around and even though done no favours by the draw (he will start wide from Gate 11),  remains the firm favourite at 11 to 8.

California Chrome's connections are quite bullish. Assistant trainer Alan Sherman (son of trainer Art), said: “Missing Royal Ascot and having that long break has probably turned out to be a real blessing. You just need to look at him to see he has really blossomed with time. Everything has gone to plan with him and we wanted to come to Dubai early this time and get a race into him at Meydan. As we have always maintained, we really think, after a long break, a horse will be at his peak for his third start back, and that is what Saturday will be. He…..should be spot on come Saturday. Basically, we are all excited and cannot wait for Saturday.”

Meanwhile, rider Victor Espinoza offered the opinion that “He's better than before. He's stronger physically, which is natural as a horse gets older. He has more strength and his body is thicker. I like the way he's coming up to the race. He's had two good preps and he likes the track. The prep was easy, and I didn't want it to be too hard. That's the reason I wanted to bounce out of there from the one post and get him comfortable outside of the two leaders. I was focused on him stretching his legs and doing what he wanted, and that was it.”

12. Teletext (by Empire Maker) – trained in Saudi Arabia by Sami Al Harabi, to be ridden by Silvestre De Sousa

This former inmate of Pascal Bary's yard in France, where he was racing under the Juddmonte banner, had some decent efforts to his credit including a runner-up effort in the usually-informative Gr.2 Prix Niel. Relocated to Saudi Arabia, he comes off a spectacular victory – by 5-1/2 lengths – in that country's feature event, the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup run at Janadriyah Racecourse last month. Despite that, he is at the long price of 50 to 1.

It would come as something of a surprise if the entire US battalion is beaten and California Chrome, Frosted, Keen Ice and Mshawish should prove too hot for the opposition, who could be led home by Vadamos.