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QIPCO 1000 GUINEAS LOOKS DESTINED FOR IRELAND

By Anil Mukhi | 30 Apr 2016 |


Anil Mukhi

Unlike in India, where the Guineas events for fillies are held before the corresponding open versions, the current practice in England is to programme the 1000 Guineas to be run after the "2000". Thus when the clock veers around to 3:40 p.m. (8:10 p.m. IST) on Sunday, May 1st, and the gates for this historic event – first run on 28th April 1814 – spring open on Newmarket's Rowley Mile, it will be almost exactly 24 hours after the result of the 2000 Guineas is in the record books.

As in recent times, the fillies' classic is sponsored by QIPCO, and this year's renewal sees 16 in opposition (at the time of writing).

It's hardly news to point out that Ireland's Aidan O'Brien holds the whip hand in a classic event in Europe, but that is indeed the position here. In Minding, Ballydoyle and Alice Springs – all daughters of the great Galileo – O'Brien shelters three of the five highest-rated fillies in the Guineas field. This trio ran one-two-three in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last September, with only half a length and three-parts of a length separating them at the wire. Minding showed further improvement at her next start, so it's not surprising that Ryan Moore has elected to partner her here, with Seamie Heffernan and Colm O'Donoghue pencilled in for the other pair.

Note that Ballydoyle was held in higher esteem prior to the Moyglare, and was indeed the public choice on the afternoon on which she was pipped by her stablemate. What's more, she has sparkled in her work. However there is a school of thought that feels she is not quite as good on ground softer than good, a likely scenario on Sunday. This fact would likely have been factored into the odds: Ballydoyle is at 11 to 2, while Minding, who revelled in the rain-soaked conditions, is at 11 to 8.

Also weighing on the odds-makers minds would have been the fact that the last-named has been ranked by the venerable Timeform organization as "the highest rated two-year-old filly trained so far by Aidan O'Brien", which amounts to a ringing endorsement. Racehorses of 2015 lists only three two-year-old fillies this century (Queens Logic, Hooray and Tiggy Wiggy) who have been rated higher – although none of this trio won a classic at three.

Stamina limitations may have scuppered the chances of those three highly-rated fillies, but there are no such worries about Minding. In fact, she displayed her best form in her final start of 2015, when trouncing Nathra (by Iffraaj) – who re-opposes here – in the Dubai Fillies Mile over course-and-distance at Newmarket. That experience of undertaking a journey across the Irish Sea and of participating over a stiff mile on such a daunting track will surely stand her in good stead on Sunday afternoon. Her trainer offered a similar opinion when he said: "The best part of her in the Fillies' Mile was in the final half a furlong. You'd imagine she'd get a mile and a half, but we'll obviously start off at a mile."

Ballydoyle is also familiar with Newmarket, having been sent over to break her maiden there last July (following a heart-breaking loss in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot) as is Alice Springs, who added the healthy sum of £162,300 to her owners' account in the £300,000 Tattersalls Millions 2yo Fillies Trophy last October. The last-named is the only one of this threesome to have raced in public in 2016, but she somewhat blotted her copybook when a tame third in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial three weeks ago, which is why she has been pushed out to 16 to 1. Actually, she needed the run and a far better effort is expected on Sunday.

Of course, everything is not guaranteed to pan out in favour of this bunch. Standing in wait is Lumiere (by Shamardal), trained by the energetic Mark Johnston, whose Kingsley Park Stables have sent out over 200 winners a season in six of the last seven years! The grey – not seen under orders since last September – has been compared favourably by her schooler to another filly he handled, namely Attraction, whom he sent out to annex the 1000 Guineas in 2004. William Buick will partner the 5 to 1 chance, who has the make-up of a progressive type. A potential chink in her armour is the fact that she is a front-running sort, and it is not easy to "make all" over the mile at Newmarket. Johnston differed from the nay-sayers in respect of her stamina, and offered his own view: "While some sceptics question her getting one mile, I am not one of them. There is no doubt in my mind that she will stay the trip."

The next highest-rated runner is Illuminate (by Zoffany), a ward of Richard Hannon and the mount of Pat Smullen. A close runner-up to the afore-mentioned Lumiere in the Connolly's Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September, she took her chance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over an easy mile at Keeneland. Her finish position of sixth was more respectable than it appears at first sight as she was beaten less than three lengths. On balance, the 16 to 1 hope looks the sort to prefer less onerous assignments, distance-wise, than she is slated to undertake here.

When as respected a trainer as Criquette Head-Maarek opts to send over a runner from France, one has to take note. The lightly-raced Juddmonte home-bred Midweek (by Motivator) is from the same family as Elmaamul, Reams Of Verse and Zafonic, so could be anything. Vincent Cheminaud takes the reins on the bay, currently quoted at 20 to 1. Last time out she was runner-up in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffitte in France.

For those who prefer runners with recent winning form, one needs to look no further than Nathra, on offer at 10 to 1. That defeat at the hands of Minding, mentioned earlier, is the only loss she has suffered in a four-race career. She demonstrated her well-being with a fluent victory in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes in mid-April. As she has impeccable connections – John Gosden and Frankie Dettori – she can be expected to be ready to put her best foot forward.

There is considerable stable confidence behind the 50 to 1 Blue Bayou (by Bahamian Bounty) even though she was well beaten in the Moyglare Stakes last term. Trainer Brian Meehan went on record to say: "We have long thought of her as a Guineas filly and at this point in time she would be one of the best three-year-old fillies that I have ever trained. When she was beaten in Ireland, Jimmy (Fortune) got off her and said that it was a rough race and that the soft ground had not suited her. She had a break shortly after that and did very well over the winter." It remains to be seen what sort of ground actually turns up on Sunday. Jimmy Fortune continues his partnership with the filly.

To summarize, at this stage it looks more than likely that one of the residents of Ballydoyle will ferry the trophy to County Tipperary by overcoming the threats posed by Lumiere and Nathra.