In its history of 45 years, the Deccan Derby has proved to be a good race for outstation horses to target and plunder the riches. Only seven locally trained horses have managed to hold the raiders at bay. This year, too, the outstation horses hold an upper hand. 16 favourites and three joint-favourites have triumphed giving a winning strike-rate  of 42 %. This year, the winners of the Deccan Fillies' Championship Stakes (Aster Rose) and Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes (Accolade) are both in the field and should dominate the finish despite the past trend. There have been twelve such previous instances and only five times did either of them win the Deccan Derby.

Aster Rose (Multidimensional - Lei) won the Deccan Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 in an efficient -- but not eye-catching -- manner. She has essayed the distance having been second to all-conquering Sergeant At Arms in the Kingfisher Ultra Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 in July. In that race, she travelled throughout on the rails but finding no clear route to make her run, was to switched to a far outer lane and finished on well without threatening the winner. Her Steinbeck half-sister Venus Arising won the Indian Oaks, Gr.1 so Aster Rose should be comfortable over 2000m. The first three runnings of this race saw fillies Red Surprise, Tenacity and Fire Haven first past the post and since then ten other fillies have come out on top. Aster Rose shares the top rating with Accolade but a line through Common Wealth gives a clear advantage to the colt. The filly runs in the colours of her breeder Ms. Ameeta Mehra. Aster Rose's dam Lei, Razeen's first Gr.1 winner, was 20 when she dropped Aster Rose who has done enough already to be a good addition to Usha band of broodmares at Jhoond Sarai.

Accolade (Burden of Proof - Alnasreya) bagged the Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 in taking style. Though running after a gap of six months, he won with just a hands and heels ride but for one crack of the whalebone from Trevor in the shadow of the winning post. That was meant merely to let the colt know that he had had a race for he was holding the hard-ridden Whomakestherules comfortably. Accolade's full-brother Acclaimed also won the Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 but then had a set-back and missed the better part of his Classic season. Acclaimed has won nine races and all of them have been at a mile or less. He went beyond a mile just once in his 28 career starts and that was in Alaindair's  Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 where he missed the board by just a neck. Clearly, there were doubts about his stamina. Accolade, like Acclaimed, is trained by Pesi Shroff. Accolade is said to be a smaller, neater horse than Acclaimed, possessing much more quality. Form shows him to be better than Aster Rose and if he gets the trip, he should prevail. The filly, though, holds the advantage of having run well over the trip while the colt is venturing into unknown territory. That is what makes the pair well-matched.

The only other runner in the field with a black-type win is the local filly Aika Aika Aika, a winner of the Alcock Barb Stakes, Gr.3 during the winter. The Hyderabad black-type races for the juveniles during winter season haven't quite been a stepping stone to greater laurels later on. Aika Aika Aika ran a good second to Common Wealth in the Bangalore Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.1  but in her two subsequent runs -- in the Kingfisher Ultra Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 and Deccan Fillies' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 -- has finished behind Aster Rose. Aika Aika Aika, whose dam is a half-sister of Elusive Pimpernel, will need to reverse that form if she is to have any say at the business end of the race. That may not be too difficult because in the Bangalore Fillies' Champion Stakes, Gr.1, she was ahead of Aster Rose. The present score is hence Aster Rose 2 - Aika Aika Aika 1.

Apart from Aster Rose, there is another Multidimensional filly in the contest. Star Nijinsky (out of Kingfisher Indian Oaks, Gr.1 and Kingfisher Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 winner Allaire) has won two of her last three starts, both over a mile. The wins were separated by an unplaced run in Sergeant At Arms's Kingfisher Ultra Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 where she ran a nice forward race, being in the leading quartet for much of the trip before retiring in the last 200 m. Bred to stay, a winter Oaks seems a more likely Classic target for her than the Sunday's race. Allaire did get the Mysore 1000 Guineas, Gr.3 winner Real Excellence but overall has been rather disappointing as a broodmare. Star Nijinsky's breeder owns a share in the filly and would certainly appreciate any black-type honours that come her way before she goes back to Usha Stud.

Leading Legend (Multidimensional - Amstel) has won twice from four starts. He was beaten a little over a length by Aika Aika Aika in the Alcock Barb Stakes, Gr.3. On his last start in the Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.3, he led the small field for much of the way before surrendering to Accolade and Whomakestherules and finishing four lengths behind the winner. Amstel's dam Husun, a daughter of the brilliantly fast Sheikh Albadou from a usefully speedy but not a classic family, came to Usha Stud in 1999. The Ashkalani foal she was carrying died young. None of Husun's descendants in India have won beyond 1800 m. though Sherman Oaks, a full-sister to Leading Legend, placed in the Golconda Oaks, Gr.2. Razeen and Multidimensional have contributed some class and stamina but Leading Legend will find winning difficult on form alone.

Three no-hopers -- on form at least -- have brought down the average rating of the field to 53.2 which is way below the average of 67.1 of the last five years. One of them, King David (Varenar - Eloise) has run five times without coming on board. So far, he has run over sprints only. He is the likely pacemaker for Leading Legend. In a Classic, a pacemaker has to have some merit because pacemaking is not just going to the front and packing up. Fiorenzo (Rebuttal - Treimhse Tirim) is well-bred but there is no record of his having raced or worked on the track. He has, perhaps, been left in by oversight. Elysian (Oisseau de Feu - Classic Scene) has a win over a mile but is rated only 49 which is below the average field rating. Such horses rarely win a Classic.

PAST THE POST

A lot hinges on whether Accolade gets the 2000m. trip or not. Secondly, a horse with an abundance of class can often surmount stamina problems up to a certain distance. The relation between class and stamina has not been quantified. Accolade has a DI of 3.44 as against Aster Rose's DI of 1.91. The DI, of course, is not the final word as we just saw in the result of the Indian St. Leger where Desert God, possessing the joint highest DI (3.00) in the field slammed his rivals pointless.

A study of the tail female line can often be instructive in judging a horse's stamina quotient. Acclaimed, as we have seen, never won beyond a mile. Their dam Alnasreya won her only race at a mile and her one foal abroad won once over 1400 m. Alnasreya is a half-sister to three winners abroad including Fontanella Borghese (by the Fappiano horse Roy) whose six wins in Chile included a victory in the St. Leger, Gr.1. It has to be said that the Chilean St. Leger is run over 2200 m. Still, it was a major achievement, defying her own DI of 5.55. Fontanella Borghese is in India as a broodmare. Her first foal, Terra Nova, did not race but has produced Awesome Approach (by the speedy Abbeyside) who is unbeaten in two starts over sprints.

If you have a look at Alnasreya's catalogue page, it is noticeable that the sequence of damsires -- Machiavellian, Green Desert, Habitat and Lorenzaccio -- had more speed than stamina. The two Gr.1 winners on the page are On The House (One Thousand Guineas, Gr.1) and Rebecca Sharp (Sussex Stakes, Gr.1), both star milers. The only horse on the page with some class and stamina is Mystic Knight who won the Tripleprint Derby Trial Stakes, Gr.3 but his sire was the confirmed stamina influence Caerleon. Accolade belongs to Aga Khan's Mumtaz Mahal family an excellent, classy and versatile tap-root but this particular stirps is more speedy.

At the end of it all, the going, the pace of the race and how the principals are ridden will all count. The connections have shelled out a Final Entry fee of Rs. 3,75,000 for the colt to run on Sunday. Obviously, they must be confident enough to have done so.