Whether it is the Hutatma Chowk in Mumbai or the Sarbatwalla Chowk in Pune, the consensus seems to be that the winner of the 75th Indian Derby, Gr.1 has three main contenders and an equal number of pretenders from whom the winner ought to emerge. The important word is 'ought'; nobody can say with certainty 'will' because this is racing. 

Starting off with the primary protagonists, it seems safe to say that majority of those who are interested in the race have Hall of Famer (Win Legend - Elusive Trust), Serjeant At Arms (Ikhtyar - Rahy's Serenade) and Temerity (Intense Focus - Narmina) -- going strictly in alphabetical order -- in the their short list of six. Whatever their individual first choice, they would be wary of the others. The grey filly Hall of Famer, has already chalked  more travelling miles than any other horse this winter season. It is nice to see a Dashmesh-bred filly in the line-up, especially one which has several fans. Dashmesh Stud has bred three Indian Derby winners -- Chaitanya Chakram, Astronomic and Elusive Pimpernel -- but none of them was in the Brar family colours which Hall of Famer will be carrying. Hall of Famer comes to Mahalakshmi after winning the Calcutta Derby, Gr.1 and clocking the fastest time of this year's four regional Derbies. She can also boast of the longest winning margin in those four races. Fifteen previous winners of the Calcutta Derby have made the same journey previously  but only five -- Fair Haven, Topmost, Psychic Flame, In The Spotlight and Desert God -- ended up triumphant on the West Coast. S. Padmanabhan, Hall of Famer's trainer, has trained the last two in this decade so he is familiar with what is required. A shrewd tactician, he will plan the race to the best of filly's advantage and in David Allan he has just the right jockey to execute those plans. David Allan has ridden two Indian Derby winners earlier -- Moonlight Romance and Desert God -- and that is more than any other jockey currently riding in India. She won as she liked at Calcutta but the field there had the lowest average rating of the four regional winter Derbies. She has a DI of 2.43 which is higher than her principal rivals.

Serjeant At Arms has lost just one race in his eight career starts. That was in the Mysore Derby, Gr.1 where Ice Glacier finished three-parts of a length ahead of him. With Ice Glacier not in the Derby field, he stands head and shoulders above his rivals on pure form. He is yet to race over 2400 m. so there is an unknown element about him. He has raced thrice over 2000 m. First, he won the Kingfisher Ultra Derby Bangalore, Gr.1. Several winners of that race have gone on to greater glory including Squanderer, Chaitanya Chakran and Smart Chieftan, to mention just three. The Serjeant won the race comfortably by a length and a quarter from Aster Rose. He was beaten less than a length by Ice Glacier in the Mysore Derby, Gr.1 and on his last start he cantered away with the R.R. Ruia Gold Trophy, Gr.2. Undoubtedly, his wins at a mile have been more impressive than his efforts over 2000 m. The unraced Rahy's Serenade came to India in 2000. She has produced eight winners including five black-type winners. Her three daughters and one grand-daughter have provided eight more winners including three black-type winners. In all, Rahy's Serenade's descendants in India have won 71 races. Here comes the crunch. Of those 71 races, only four have been at 2400 m. or more. Highland Crown won the longest race in the country, the Suresh Mahindra Trophy, over 3200 m. but there were only three runners in that race. One was left at the start and Highland Crown beat Maseeha from whom he was getting 11.5 kgs. Proserpine had just a solitary rival -- maiden Satinette -- in the South India Oaks, Gr.1 who was accounted for without fuss. These two races give no real indication of the stamina factor.

Full-brothers Bruckner (Eveready Calcutta Derby, Gr.1) and Monet (C.N. Wadia Gold Cup, Gr.2) were more competitive winners over 2400 m. Bruckner, Monet and Carousel -- the dam of Proserpine -- are three-parts related to Serjeant At Arms. So it is obvious that Ikhtyar has a key role to play. Ikhtyar was owned by Sheikh Hamdan al Maktoum and trained by John Gosden at Clarehaven Stables in Newmarket. He had 11 starts in his career of which five were at a mile and six at 2000 m. Gosden never sent him beyond 2000 m. Ikhtyar was obviously limited as far as stamina is concerned though he performed consistently, albeit at an average level, at 2000 m. Serjeant At Arms -- DI 2.20 -- will hence be looking for his class to carry him through. He has a tough job as he faces the challenge of six individual Classic winners including three who won a regional Derby on their last start in January.

Of the three principals, Temerity has the lowest DI at 1.33. She has lost just two races in her career so far -- her debut race and the Gitanjali Indian 1000 Guineas, Gr.1 where her starting stall troubles obviously played a major part in her "no show". She won the Villoo Poonawalla Indian Oaks, Gr.1 well and the jockey probably had something in hand. That race, however, was run at a funeral pace in the first part and developed into a sprint for home. It does not attest Temerity's stamina conclusively for a race which will be run more truly. Her sire who stands at Ballylinch Stud in Ireland was a speedy sort who ran just twice at 3 before being retired to stud. His own DI is 1.46 so he may have stayed further had he had a full career. Temerity's dam line is steeped in stamina. The old Aga Khan bought the Lady Sykes-bred Teresina and developed the family. Teresina won the Goodwood Cup and later produced Theresina (Irish Oaks), Ujiji (Ascot Gold Cup) and Turkhan (Yorkshire St. Leger). That stamina still survives and you will find many staying winners in Narmina's catalogue page. Narniyn, Temerity's Dubawi half-sister, has won black-type races in France for the present Aga Khan and was third in Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, Gr.1 over 2400 m. No sibling of any other runner in the race has won a Graded race abroad. She will be ridden by Neeraj  Rawal, a much maligned jockey in the past, who gave her a near perfect run in the Indian Oaks. Neeraj Rawal has ridden four Classic winners this term and is enjoying his moments in the sun.

Most capable trainers admit that what a filly expends in winning an Indian Oaks becomes known only after she runs in the Derby. That is borne out by statistics also. 53 Indian Oaks winners lined up for the Indian Derby and only nine have managed the double. That is the enormity of task confronting Temerity.

A miler onto a staying mare is a breeding pattern that often employed. That is how Germanicus (Whatsthescript - Phenomenale) is bred. His win in the Golconda Derby, Gr.1 was a sparkling effort. Ten years ago, Diabolical won the Golconda Derby and upset the applecart of his better fancied bracket-mate Southern Empire in the Indian Derby only a week later. Germanicus is following that trail so will he put it across his bracket-mate Serjeant At Arms ? Mr. K.N. Dhunjibhoy has an interest in both the horses as well as Mrs Patmore. His Nanoli Stud, having bred winners of seven of the 19 Classics this year so far, is on an unprecedented high.

Salazaar (Burden of Proof - Saddle Star) won the South India Derby in the slowest time of the four regional Derbies. He himself was the lowest rated of winners of those four races and Magistero, the horse he beat at Guindy, is the lowest rated runner-up. For all that, he is one horse who will give you a run for your money for he will be carrying Dr. Vijay Mallya's colours. Horses from that establishment are always on their mettle. How good he is, is another matter though with his career comprising of just four starts so far, he has scope for improvement. Bred on the successful Burden of Proof-Tejano cross, his dam is a half-sister to Saddle Up who won this race in 1999 but was disqualified when his samples came positive. Saddle Up is undoubtedly the best Indian-bred internationally and Saddle Star is his year younger half-sister. Running Flame had started favourite in Saddle Up's Derby only to finish third. Last year, her son Desert God redeemed the family honour. An opportunity then for Salazaar to do like wise. Incidentally, Salazaar is a final entry as is Silver Beauty.

What to make of the talking horse Mathaiyus (Multidimensional - Yana) ? He certainly has the pedigree for the job. His sire has already produced an Indian Derby winner in Alaindair while his dam Yana is a half-sister to Starsky who won a thrilling Indian Derby in 2002. Yana won the Indian Oaks in her time but was subsequently disqualified. She won eight races in her career, four in record time, including the Poonawalla Stud Farms and Breeders' Stayers' Cup, Gr.1. With just four starts so far like Salazaar, Mathaiyus is very inexperienced and still wet behind the ears. It is clear why his handler wanted him to run his last race carrying an over-weight of 6.5 kgs. He wanted him to have dress rehearsal for the Blue Riband. Mathaiyus duly won that race, run at a very slow pace, but not as impressively one would have liked. Still, it made him a course and distance winner and is sure to have bought him on. His earlier win over 2000 m., when he made the running, was more eye catching. The Derby, perhaps, has come too soon. He may be at his best post-Derby as Amazing Grace, also trained by Shroff, was in Alaindair's year.  Mathaiyus has garnered no black-type so far. The last Indian Derby winner with no previous black-type was Enterprising in 1984, Pesi Shroff's first Indian Derby as a jockey.  The only horse with a course and distance victory in a handicap race just before the Derby was Regal Domain way back in 1953. Mathaiyus has a rating below the average field rating.

A third of the "left-ins" have backed out at the acceptance stage so we should have relatively fewer traffic problems. The average field rating of 82.57 is only slightly below the average of recent years. It contains seven Classic winners, five 'got-abroads', three course and distance winners and three other winners who have won a 2400 m. race. It should be a competitive affair. It is said that fifty years ago the roar of the crowd as the Derby field was despatched used to disturb the siesta of people on the Altamount Road. These days the crowds have dwindled, the race is held much later in the afternoon and the constant din of the ever-growing traffic has made most Mumbaikars immune to noise.

PAST THE POST

It is often said that a colt is always preferable to a filly in a Derby. Like all aphorisms, it is valid but only up to a point. 56 colts/geldings have been victorious in 74 renewals at a strike rate of 75.68 percent; the fillies have a lower percentage of 24.32. Those stats, however, do not take into account the fact that of the 938 runners over the 74 years, 708 were colts/geldings whereas only 228 belonged to the fairer sex. Work that out and you will see that there is hardly anything to choose between a colt and a filly.

18 fillies have won the Indian Derby with exactly half of them starting as favourites. Nine fillies have completed the Oaks-Derby double. A remarkable fact about Indian Derby winning fillies is that each one of them -- bar one -- had been on the board in a 2400 m. Classic in their last start before the Derby. The lone exception is Princess Beautiful and she can hardly be blamed for there was no Indian Oaks in her year.

In all, 42 greys have run in the Indian Derby over the years. For 15 years between 1998 and 2012, not a single grey was seen in a Derby field. Four greys have won the Indian Derby with the last two of them being fillies -- Revelation (1985) and Cordon Bleu (1988). 

With 33 public fancies winning in 74 years -- a strike rate of 44.59 % --, the Indian Derby is an attractive race for favourite backers. Well backed winners -- and losers -- have tended to come in sequences.  Starfire Girl kicked off a string of eight consecutive favourites winning which ended in 1999 when Supervite upset Running Flame. Allaire set in motion a sequence that saw nine successive public fancies bite the dust till Jacqueline pulled one back. In fact, in this millennium, only two favouites have brought home the bacon -- Jacqueline (2010) and Be Safe (2015). Statistically, the trend should swing back to favourites but whether it starts this year or the next is anybody's guess.