Nineteen choice Thoroughbreds from the 2014 crop are scheduled to go to the post for the 238^th running of that most prestigious of flat horse races, the £1,625,000 Epsom Derby, sponsored – as in recent years – by Investec. To be run at Epsom Downs in Surrey, just south of London, the race will kick off on Saturday, June 3^rd at 4:30 p.m. BST (9:00 p.m. in India). No rain is forecast for the day but Friday could see a downpour that might leave its imprint overnight. Should the ground turn soft an upset is a possibility.

No one has any complaints or issues regarding the eighteen colts engaged; it is the solitary filly that has occupied reams of media attention in the days leading up to the race. And that is because the animal in question, Diore Lia (by Yeats), does not possess the form to effectively participate in the race, being a twice-raced maiden with a Racing Post Rating of a mere 52. She has beaten just four horses home in her two public appearances. And while she may well improve, this may not be enough to have a say.

Breeder Richard Aylward had earmarked all earnings from the filly, who runs in the colours of his sister, Ms. M. Todd, to a charity of his choosing, namely the Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital, and had pencilled in the name of a young apprentice lady rider named Gina Mangan to guide her fortunes. Bookmakers quoted the filly at 1,000-1, a price dictated no doubt by the combined lack of credentials of both horse and rider – whose sole career victory came in 2009 at Roscommon in Ireland, and who has never ridden on the undulating Epsom track.

That said, there is no rule preventing apparent “no-hopers” from taking their chances in the Derby provided their connections have coughed up the entry fee and all seemed set for the “fairy tale” appearance this weekend. Presumably concerns expressed in the media about the safety of the runners caused the British Horseracing Authority to delve into their Rule Book, and they unearthed the obscure Rule 83, which permits the BHA to decline a declaration. So Gina Mangan was deemed ineligible to undertake the daunting task, leading to Aylsworth’s initial reaction of not fielding Diore Lia.

A change of heart overnight saw the filly’s name listed amongst the 19 declared to run on Thursday, with the unheralded 19-year-old Paddy Pilley in the irons. The young apprentice has 39 wins to his credit, including a recent one, and has essayed the Epsom track on four occasions, albeit without success. He was clear that, while delighted to receive the opportunity to ride in the world’s most prestigious race, he would not be “interfering with anyone”. Diore Lia, who is drawn 17, is out of a mare appropriately named Cyclonic Storm!

This column’s view is that if a jockey is licensed, he or she should be allowed to ride in any race, unless the conditions specify otherwise, well in advance of taking entries. This is already the case in some races in France. It’s up to the authorities worldwide to formulate a minimum qualification – rather like the necessity of writing a certain quantum of business annually for LIC agents – for professionals to retain their licences each year. This criterion can be very liberal – like one winner a year – but has to exist to avoid situations like 218 consecutive losing mounts over 8 years (as the record of one Indian rider reads)!  

On to the serious runners! Focussing on those stables whose recent form has been sparkling: we find 14 runners representing just three trainers, Aidan O’Brien (with 6 engaged), John Gosden (with the unusually high number of 5 runners) and Saeed bin Suroor (with 3 declared). Overall it appears to be a less-than-inspiring renewal, with even the favourite being quoted at 4 to 1. The last time there was such an open contest was in 1999, when the ill-fated Dubai Millennium started as the best backed at 5 to 1 in the race won by Oath (now a stallion at the Pratap Stud in India).

Two of the runners have been supplemented at a cost of £85,000 apiece. These are John Gosden's 20-1 shot, Khalidi (by High Chaparral), who will be returning to action just eight days after winning the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood and Mark Johnston’s 10-1 hope Permian (by Teofilo), who looks rather more obvious as the hero of that informative trial, the Dante Stakes, at York last month. Pat Smullen has been booked for the former, while more later on the latter.

Gosden shelters the joint-favourite Cracksman (by Frankel), unbeaten in two starts, with Frankie Dettori up. The colt, who beat Permian last time out, runs in the silks made popular a couple of years ago by Golden Horn and bears a similar profile, except that he missed his intended prep. race due to adverse ground conditions. However, both trainer and jockey are masters of their professions and are sure to have him tuned to the highest pitch. Thus there is every chance that the great Frankel will land an English classic from his first crop of runners – he has already had a top level win in Japan through Soul Stirring, victorious in the Japanese Oaks. A word of caution – the lack of experience is not a worry for Cracksman but whether, as a grandson of Pivotal, he will truly stay is open to question.

The master of Clarehaven Stables also fields Crowned Eagle (by Oasis Dream), quoted at 33-1 with Andrea Atzeni astride after coming off a handicap victory, Glencadam Glory (by Nathaniel), also at 33 to 1 with James Doyle aboard, following his runner-up effort in the Lingfield Derby Trial and Pealer (by Campanologist), whose 19 lengths maiden victory has not impressed the bookmaking fraternity, who have him pegged at 100-1 even with former champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa in command.

Not surprisingly, a potential source of the winner is Ballydoyle Stables, located in Cashel, Co. Tipperary, across the Irish Sea. With the winners of all four British and Irish classics in 2017 having emerged from there – and today’s Investec Oaks appearing to be at the mercy of Rhododendron – it would perhaps be unwise to oppose the Coolmore colossus! But which one will do it? Aidan O’Brien sends out half a dozen well-bred colts in quest of glory, each one aiming to emulate his previous winners Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot, Ruler Of The World and Australia.

Those who believe in the rider’s choice will side with Cliffs Of Moher (by Galileo), selected after much thought by the in-form Ryan Moore, and currently disputing favouritism at 4 to 1 with Cracksman. As a son of the world’s pre-eminent source of classic stamina, one should expect he will get the trip. Interestingly, his schooler is reported as having said: “Before Chester we weren’t even sure he’d get a mile and a quarter. He’s out of a fast mare, but we were extra happy with him at Chester as he was relaxed and then went to the line very strong.”

It’s worth remembering that O’Brien has also scored in the Derby with one of his less-fancied runners, so one cannot rule out the grey Capri (by Galileo), who with Seamie Heffernan at the controls is a 12 to 1 package, after having been 20 to 1 a few days ago. Next of the trainer’s sextet is Venice Beach (by Galileo), at 14 to 1 to win with O’Brien’s son Donnacha in the saddle, followed by the Colm O’Donoghue-ridden Douglas Macarthur (by Galileo) at 25 to 1. Bringing up the rear – odds-wise at least – are the 33-1 Wings Of Eagles (by Pour Moi), to be steered by Padraig Beggy, and rank outsider The Anvil (by Galileo) entrusted to the schooler’s daughter, Anastasia. Of these Venice Beach, as a half-brother to Arc victress Danedream, may be expected to show the most improvement.

That is not the end of the O’Brien saga – Aidan’s rider-turned-trainer son, Joseph saddles Rekindling (by High Chaparral), available at 25 to 1. Formerly trained by David Wachman, who has since retired, the bay retains his regular pilot, Wayne Lordan.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has set his eyes on recording an Epsom Derby victory for his prominent outfit, Godolphin. It’s been a tough problem so far and perhaps Best Solution (by Kodiac) can step up and solve the riddle. One might regard the prospect of a son of Kodiac winning the Epsom Derby with some skepticism but the colt is from a stout family, even if his non-winning dam cannot provide a guide to his stamina. Saeed bin Suroor’s well-exposed ward, at 12 to 1, has been entrusted to Pat Cosgrave.

In marked contrast experience-wise is the same trainer’s wide-margin maiden winner Dubai Thunder (by Dubawi), who is stepping up hugely in class after just a solitary appearance. Actually this audacious attempt (to win the Derby at a second career start) has succeeded before with a bin Suroor ward – Lammtara in 1995. Adam Kirby has been booked to chart the course of the 14 to 1 chance. The final runner from this stable is the lightly-raced improving 16 to 1 Benbatl (by Dubawi), partnered by Oisin Murphy.

That leaves three runners yet to come under the lens – Eminent (by Frankel) is a live prospect to illuminate his illustrious sire’s record. He’s the only runner to have actually participated in a classic, having been sixth (beaten 3-1/2 lengths) in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. Almost half of the Derby winners in the past decade or so had similarly started in the Epsom classic off a Guineas run. Martyn Meade’s 6 to 1 shot has been delegated to leading rider Jim Crowley and races for New Zealand interests.

Perennially a great source of winners from his base at Middleham in North Yorkshire, Mark Johnston has a realistic opportunity with the aforementioned Permian. Godolphin’s principal rider, William Buick, has been booked for the property of Sheikh Mohammed’s son, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, in preference to the other Godolphin hopes, which might tell us something. A game customer, Permian has been consistent and reliable in his ten career starts and should be value for his 10 to 1 price.

At a best-priced 66-1, Salouen (by Canford Cliffs) is held on known form by Khalidi and has scant chance of doing anything more significant than sporting his owner’s silks on the big day.  

To sum up, one might do worse than follow the money by looking closely at only those runners quoted in single digits, namely Cliffs Of Moher, Cracksman and Eminent (if this column could have predicted the winner with utmost certainty, it would probably never have been written!).