We have been here before. In 2008, Big Brown looked “home and dry” in the third leg of the US Triple Crown when tackling the 1-1/2 miles Belmont Stakes at the New York Racing Association’s Belmont Park in Elmont on Long Island in New York – he finished last giving a performance that is as perplexing now as it was then. In the last 20 years or so, the likes of Silver Charm and Real Quiet and Smarty Jones and War Emblem and Funny Cide and California Chrome have all failed in their bid for immortality when unable to win the “Run for the Carnations” as the Belmont Stakes is sometimes known.

This was the state of affairs until 2015 – when American Pharoah ended a 37-year drought and became the 12^th Triple Crown winner. Trained by silver-haired Bob Baffert, that colt demonstrated the feat could still be achieved even in this era of short-running Thoroughbreds and Lasix. As luck would have it, that same schooler is back with the latest candidate for greatness, Justify (by Scat Daddy). This 16.3 colossus, who weighed in at 1,267 lbs. (576 kgs.) when last seen, has won the 2018 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and is in fact unbeaten in 5 starts, all in 2018. Can he become the 13^th Triple Crown winner?

A field of 10 will face the starter on Saturday, June 9^th, at 6:46 p.m. Eastern Time (4:16 a.m. on Sunday, June 10^th, in India) for the 150^th renewal of the race, worth a total of $1,500,000 – and millions more in potential stud fees. For the third time in a row this season, a Triple Crown event could be run on sloppy ground, should the forecast rain materialize. Weather conditions in North America tend to be localized, as we saw three weeks ago when Pimlico racecourse was drenched in rain and enveloped in fog, while 50 miles away the sun shone brightly! So it could just as well be a warm glorious day in New York.

Whatever the state of the going, Justify has every chance of scoring. The only questions he faces are: (a) can he get to the front from draw # 1 and still keep going over a trip longer than he has ever faced, and (b) can he maintain his form for his third race in 5 weeks? Mike Smith will be aboard for the journey for which he is a 4 to 5 favourite. The most recent winner from the innermost post was Empire Maker in 2003. One of the pitfalls of this starting gate position is that a hypothetical fumble at the start can result in the field swamping the public choice, pinning him to the rail, and taking him out of his comfort zone. So one will have to keenly watch the start looking for the red and yellow silks of China Horse Club, which the favourite is scheduled to carry.

Regular readers of this column may recall the favourable comments relating to Hofburg (by Tapit) before the Kentucky Derby. Bill Mott’s ward, racing for Juddmonte Farms, had a troubled passage on that occasion and was only seventh at the finish. His connections intentionally by-passed the Preakness Stakes and are coming in here with a fresh horse. None is better bred for the job – Hofburg’s sire has come up with no less than three winners of the Belmont Stakes in four years, namely Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016) and Tapwrit (2017), while maternal grandsire Touch Gold annexed the event in 1997! Irad Ortiz, Jr., leads the table of leading jockeys in North America in 2018 in terms of number of winners, and will be hoping to add to his tally on the 9-2 chance.

Another few strides and Bravazo (by Awesome Again) would have nailed Justify in the Preakness Stakes instead of missing by half a length. We will know soon enough whether the proximity of the Wayne Lukas-trained representative there was due to his own improvement or due to a sub-par effort from the Kentucky Derby hero. Luis Saez renews his partnership with the Calumet Farm colt, who is expected to start at 8 to 1, a decent price for one who should stay the trip well.

Running in the silks of New York native Mike Repole is a son of classic winner and sire Curlin. This is Vino Rosso, from Todd Pletcher’s barn, who proved popular at the betting windows five weeks ago in Louisville, largely because of his name. Unfortunately, that did not help him run any faster and he was ninth, about 10 lengths behind the winner, after starting from draw # 18. Johnny Velazquez will probably find this sweeping track more conducive to extracting a top performance from his mount, also an 8 to 1 chance. 

Another who ran out of real estate when closing in on Justify in the Preakness Stakes was Tenfold, also a  son of Curlin, tutored – like his sire – by Steve Asmussen. Interestingly, he is out of a mare by Tapit. These days Ricardo Santana, Jr., is the “go to” rider for the Asmussen stable and thus continues in the saddle. As a lightly-raced colt, Tenfold may make more than the usual improvement and join Palace Malice as a Curlin-sired winner of the Belmont Stakes. Such a victory would multiply your wager twelvefold.

While some of the runners are relatively lightly-raced, Blended Citizen (by Proud Citizen) is at the other extreme – he has ten starts under his belt. What’s more, he comes off a recent victory on the track in the usually informative Peter Pan Stakes. Given that the colt likes to dawdle in the early part, jockey Kyle Frey will have to time his effort precisely on the Doug O’Neill trained 15 to 1 prospect.

Football permeates the souls of American sports fans, even though the foot is a minor part of the game (perhaps it should have been called American rugby?). Players are stars in their own right, one of which is Rob Gronkowski, a “tight end” with the New England Patriots, after whom the three-year-old by Lonhro has been named. Relocated from England, where Gronkowski was trained by Jeremy Noseda, the colt is making his first-ever US start but has little in his favour and might start on track at 12 to 1, surely a sentimental price (British bookmakers offer 40 to 1). Chad Brown will saddle him and Jose Ortiz will ride and in all probability the pair will find themselves at a loose end after the race.

Perhaps owners Gary and Mary West insisted that Restoring Hope (by the recently-deceased Giant’s Causeway) should take part in the Belmont Stakes as one cannot imagine trainer Bob Baffert trying to topple his own Triple Crown hopeful with a stablemate! Judged purely on form, he has scant chance and even the booking of Florent Giroux, known for his superior riding skills, probably won’t be able to galvanize the 30 to 1 hope.

Following a narrow win in the Louisiana Derby in March, Noble Indy (by Take Charge Indy) laid an egg in the Kentucky Derby, running way below form when over a hundred yards in arrears at the wire. Sharing a portion of his ownership with Justify, and another fraction with Vino Rosso, the colt has impeccable professionals in charge in Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano. His fate will be determined in the early stages of the race as he needs to be well up. Probably he will be amongst the longest shots in the field with morning line odds of 30 to 1.

Only one more contender remains to be mentioned. The case in favour of Free Drop Billy (by Union Rags) is a slender one, resting largely on the fact that his sire won the race in his day. It’s been about 9 months since this son of a Giant’s Causeway mare last checked into the winner’s circle and he is at long odds here (around 30 to 1) for trainer Dale Romans, who has booked the services of Robby Albarado.

The field: