The concept of a season-ending championship day in North America, labelled the Breeders' Cup World Championships, was the brainchild of leading thoroughbred owner/breeder John R. Gaines, founder of Gainesway Farm in Kentucky, USA. From its inception in 1984 till 2006, all the championship events were contested on a single afternoon. With effect from 2007, the programme was extended to two days – a Friday card followed by the richer and more action-packed Saturday card – and hence the programme is now a championship “weekend”, and not merely a “day”.

A further change has been made this year in that all the juvenile races, i.e. those for two-year-olds, have been moved to the Friday to showcase next year’s household names on what is being called “Future Stars Friday”. Overall, there will be 14 Breeders Cup events over the two days, half of them on turf.

The additional turf opportunities, coupled with a resurgence in the fortunes of American-bred youngsters in Europe (names like Roaring Lion and a host of Scat Daddy offspring come to mind) provide the backdrop to the renewed interest from across the Atlantic. This year there is a record participation of European-trained runners, including arguably two of the three best performers there – Arc victress Enable and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes hero Roaring Lion.

Fans of the turf eagerly look forward to the annual ritual. However, winner finding, particularly this year, is very tricky! Unfortunately the weather gods have been frowning on Louisville, Kentucky, at whose Churchill Downs track the event takes place. Heavy rain on Wednesday and Thursday will render the turf sodden, though the dirt track recovers more rapidly and should ride fast. No rain is expected on the two race-days, but followers of the money must remember that the combination of extremely competitive fields with rain-affected ground could be lethal. Historically, upsets are very common!

Today's piece covers the card for Friday, November 2nd, while that for Saturday will be published separately. Note that IST is 9-1/2 hours ahead of Eastern Time until this coming Sunday. The expected odds referred to below are estimates by experienced assessors and could change significantly.

This newly instituted event sees that ace trainer of precocious juveniles, Wesley Ward, sending out four of the 12 runners, all with top riders aboard. Another four runners are on the reserve list. Shang Shang Shang (by Shanghai Bobby) showed commendable resolution when winning at Royal Ascot in June but hasn’t been seen since – he could yet grab the prize. The half a dozen Europeans have assuredly not come for the air, and should be in the shake-up, particularly Soldier’s Call (by Showcasing), who ran a terrific race in the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp.

Fourteen have been declared, with a pair of reserves. Trainer Brian Ellison has grabbed the chance of obtaining the services of Oisin Murphy to guide The Mackem Bullet (by Society Rock), now sporting the colours of Katsumi Yoshida. Aidan O’Brien’s Rockfel Stakes winner Just Wonderful (by Dansili) is bred for the job, as is Kevin Ryan’s East (by Frankel), unbeaten from 2 starts, including on soft going, but drawn wide. Two of Lily’s Candle’s (by Style Vendome) races have been at a mile and she has won both. However, Chad Brown – who excels with turf fillies – has Newspaperofrecord (by Lope De Vega) all primed to keep her flawless record intact.

Indian-American owner Kaleem Shah, nephew of Western India trainer S.S. Shah, has a wonderful chance to add to his previous Breeders Cup success (with Bayern) through the medium of the big-made multiple Gr.1 winner, Bellafina (by Quality Road). However, this is her first time in the East and one cannot discount the grey pair of Alcibiades Stakes heroine, Restless Rider (by Distorted Humor) and Frizette Stakes victress, Jaywalk (by Cross Traffic). Serengeti Empress (by Alternation) has a course and distance victory in the Pocahontas Stakes on her resume – one achieved by nearly 20 lengths! A repeat of that would do it.

An American victory seems unlikely here as the Europeans are out in full force with Ballydoyle’s Anthony Van Dyck (by Galileo), though drawn poorly, is aiming to do better than his third to the top class Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst Stakes last time out. Arthur Kitt (by Camelot), raised on a nurse mare, was the same distance behind that champion in the Solario Stakes so has a chance, while Godolphin have a live contender in the impeccably-bred Line Of Duty (by Galileo). One must always be wary of unbeaten runners paired with one of the Ortiz brothers and Uncle Benny (by Declaration Of War) fills that bill with Irad in the saddle.

Game Winner (by Candy Ride) is the latest potential champion to emerge from the Baffert assembly line and is favoured to continue his triumphant march – although only four public choices have won this race in the last 20 years. One reason why not too many winners of this event go on to Kentucky Derby success next year is because they either (a) break down, or (b) fail to stay. One cannot be sure about the former – it can happen at any time to any horse – but stamina will not be an issue for Honor Code (by Noble Mission), as his sire, an own-brother to Frankel, had no weakness in that department as a racehorse. Complexity (by Maclean’s Music), who beat Honor Code last time out in the Champagne Stakes, will probably manage this trip but will find the first Saturday in May an altogether different proposition. Korean-owned Knicks Go (by Paynter) shocked at 70 to 1 last time out and his trainer feels he has improved.

That completes Friday’s menu of Breeders Cup events, with nine more to come on Saturday.