When the 2017-18 racing year ended, Sir Cecil and Star Superior had established themselves as head and shoulders above the other members of the 2015 crop born in India  with the first named holding a decisive edge. Three months and 19 winter Classics later, that position has not changed though one filly has emerged  to take her place behind the summer/monsoons winter duo. The overall picture, however, has become a bit clouded because of the extraneous circumstances and some questions need to be answered. There are no straight forward answers to the those questions.

Is Sir Cecil Back to His Full Fitness ?

The first hint that something was amiss with the grey Champion emerged when the race day report of the Villoo Poonawalla Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1 appeared. There it was mentioned that trainer Padmanabhan, whose ward had won the race well, had been fined for running him in bandages for which prior permission had not been sought. Slowly, the news filtered through that the rig had a problem and by the time we came into the New Year, it was a common knowledge. We do not know the full extent of the mishap and more so of the recovery. About a month after his last race, Sir Cecil (Win Legend - Elusive Trust) worked at Bangalore and was vanned down to Mumbai where he has worked well since. Still, how fit he is is a matter of conjecture as far as the racing public is concerned and cautious optimism in the case of immediate connections. What is certain is that Sir Cecil has missed his prep run and will now go into the Indian Derby with a gap of 48 days since his last race. That is longest gap any previous Indian Derby winner has had and it is a coincidence that the record stands in the name of Exhilaration who like, Sir Cecil, was unbeaten. The difference is that Exhilaration had no physical problems whereas Sir Cecil has.  The track work tells us nothing significant in this case. Working within himself in the morning is one thing. Being fit enough to give your best when the push comes to a shove in the hurly-burly of a race is another matter.

In the Bangalore Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.1 during the summer, Sir Cecil had beaten Star Superior over the mile by a head. In mid-December in the Villoo Poonawalla Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1 he did so by a length and a quarter over the same distance. Clearly, he had improved, especially in view of the fact that his ailment had manifested itself. If he is good physically as he was, he should win the Derby doing cartwheels. If he is not, further questions loom and the Derby wears a wide open look. Can he win if he is 95% fit ? Will he manage to scrape through if he is only 80% fit ? You can be sure that nobody knows his fitness level for certain though there will be many claimants proclaiming one way or the other, quoting reliable sources, which is nothing more than the 'tabelah gupp-shupp'.  A more pertinent question for his fans is whether they back him at the same odds as if nothing has gone awry or they expect a better quote. If he starts at higher odds than what bare form dictates, many will construe it as a ploy of the bookmakers to lure the backers, knowing fully well that the horse is not fully fit.

As a very knowledgeable friend of mine would say, the information in the field is incomplete.

Will Star Superior Stay The Distance ?

After Star Superior (Excellent Art - Ramjet) had won the Ruia, some people asserted that he had shown his staying prowess. Firstly, 2000 m. is an intermediate distance and does not stamp a horse with the tag of 'a stayer'. Then, the ability to stay a particular distance is not an absolute but a relative parameter which is liable to fluctuate according to the opposition and the pace of the race. Besides, while a horse may win at any distance, he has his own ideal distance. Camino won the Derby Bangalore, Gr.1 (2000 m.), the Maharaja's Cup (2200 m.), the Governor's Cup (2400 m.), the Nizam's Gold Cup, Gr.2 (2000 m.) and the President of India Gold Cup, Gr.1 (2400 m.), the last four races in consecutive starts but his trainer, the great R.R. Byramji, believed that he was at his best at a mile and that he won at longer distances because of his sheer class.

Without going into the pedigree aspects, it is illuminating to consider three sets of results. In the Bangalore Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.1 over a mile, Star Superior was only a head behind Sir Cecil; a month later, over 2000 m., the grey had increased his winning margin to three lengths. My Opinion finished five and a half lengths behind Star Superior in the Deccan Colts' Championship Stakes, Gr.3 over a mile but reduced the deficit to three and a half lengths in the Deccan Derby, Gr.1 (2000 m.). In the Villoo Poonawalla Indian 2000 Guineas, Gr.1, Star Superior was almost seven lengths ahead of Sacred Roman. He confirmed that superiority in the Ruia but now the margin had come down to just half a length. It is obvious that Star Superior has run better races over a mile than over 2000 m. What will be the effect of another 400 m. over which the Derby is run ?

The heartening aspect for the fans of Star Superior is that he showed commendable grit and a never-say-die spirit in the Ruia. Spirit is sometimes more important than intrinsic ability.

How good is Adjudicate ?

There is no doubt that the three most impressive victories in the 19 Classics run this year all belong to the filly Adjudicate (Multidimensional - Alvarita). She has simply swatted away her opponents in three Classics at Calcutta, showing the much needed ability to settle early in the race and then unleashing an electrifying turn of foot. Whether the opposition was mediocre or the filly made it look so is a matter of debate . Perhaps, a little bit of both. What is a fact is that Adjudicate comes to Mumbai with the Calcutta 1000 Guineas-Calcutta 200 Guineas-Calcutta Derby treble just as Psychic Flame had done fifteen years ago.

A straight line through Exception places Adjudicate on par with Roberta. A more circuitous link through Shivansh-Peluche-My Opinion-Star Superior is more flattering but less reliable. Whichever way you look at it, there is little doubt that she heads the "Third Front". There were some doubts about her staying ability which her efforless victory in the Calcutta Derby, Gr.1 has allayed, if for the moment. What is of more concern is who will ride her with David Allan, aboard her all Calcutta triumphs, reverting to his stable horse Sir Cecil. Allan has never been beaten on Adjudicate.

There have been Indian Derby winners like Canny Scot and Balchand who started their racing careers in Calcutta. There have been Indian Derby winners like Fair Haven, Topmost, Psychic Flame, In The Spotlight, Desert God and Hall of Famer who came to Mahalakshmi after winning the Calcutta Derby. However, there hasn't been a single Indian Derby winner trained by a Calcutta-based trainer so far. That is a historical fact but it is the infinite capacity of sports to throw something new which is what attracts us to them. "Rain Stopped Play" is a common occurrence in cricket. Who had heard of "Sun Stops Play" as  happened at Napier very recently ? Adjudicate deserves to be respected though she will be up against the likes of Sir Cecil and Star Superior for the first time.

Who Is the Best of the Rest ?

This is a relatively simple question because the answer is Sacred Roman (Holy Roman Emperor - Cliquot). Actually, on his Ruia run, he shapes as the main threat to the Sir Cecil-Star Superior duo. At level weights, he was just half a length shy of Star Superior and the extra distance will suit him to boot because he is bred to stay. He is one of the five runners being fielded by Team Shroff-Gaikwad and it is not clear whether he is a player in his own right or is assigned a team role.

The Indian Derby field consists, on an average, of a dozen runners so we have a bit more than the average for the 77th renewal. The average field rating is only 72.1, below the 84.8 of last ten years. This is not a good race for the favourites with only two -- Jacqueline and Be Safe -- having brought home the bacon. Both were 'got-abroads', the only ones of their ilk to hoist the winning flag. Highest rated horses have fared slightly better with four of them being led-in. This year, we have five 'got-abroads', four outstation challengers, two unbeaten horses and a half a dozen who have never ever been off-the-frame.

Trainer Pesi Shroff has trained a record of eight fillies to win the Indian Oaks. For the first time, though, his Oaks heroine will not line up for the Derby.  Roberta has had a chequered preparation to the Classics and though she won the Oaks, she was far from impressive. A more sanguine reason for absence, though, could be that she returned sore by her left hind leg after her last race and the connections feel that it is more prudent to get her fully wound up for the Invitation Cup.

PAST THE POST 

Finally, some trivia and a few stray thoughts:-

*   In the Indian Derby annals so far, only one mare has produced two winners. She is Curfew III, the dam of the filly Jeanne d'Arc (1948)  and the colt Martial Law (1952), both of them being sired by Dante's half-brother Spadassin. This year, we have Sir Cecil, a full-brother to Hall of Famer (2017) and Vintage, also a full-brother to last year's winner Rochester, in the field.

*   Nineteen fillies have won the Indian Derby but none of them has produced a winner of this race. Rocklie (1963) came closest to it as her son Storm was beaten a mere short-head by Prince Khartoum in the 1972 renewal. 

*   Eight 'got-abroads' have won the Indian Derby but no stallion standing abroad has sired more than one winner of the race. The 2015 winner Be Safe was sired by Holy Roman Empeor who has two runners -- Augustus Caesar and Sacred Roman --participating on Sunday.

*   Nine Classics have been run so far this year over 2400 m. and the Multidimensionals have won six of them.

*    Four regional Derbies are done and dusted. Progeny of Excellent Art have won one and placed second in the other three (Indian Pharaoh, Barbaresco and Isn't She Lovely). The dams of these three Excellent Arts were themselves winners of a 2400 m. Classic in India or have produced one.  
            
*     Trainer Pesi Shroff's Indian Derby record isn't as glittering as in the Indian Oaks but there is one fact that may not be readily known to everyone. In the last ten years, he has had one of his wards finishing in a paying place in each of those ten runnings.